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Netherlands45349 Posts
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
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now is time to see if Twitch.tv or own3d gona battle over the streaming rights. Or valve just gona stream by their own like last year which is also cool
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On May 12 2012 22:35 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 22:25 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:16 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:05 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. And your opinions and 'statistics' are irrelevant as well. You think spectre is OP because she gets a high winrate later in the game? Gee, a super hard carry that wins lategame when a lot of farm has been accumulated, how surprising. Or riki and ursa, midgame heroes having a big mid-game win-rate, geeee, that sure is surprise, wait what's that? Ursa and riki fall off lategame? Who would've thought. It's like you want all heroes have 50% win rate at both early, mid and lategame. You are either incredibly ignorant or incredibly stupid, not quite sure which it is. DotA is not like SC2 because there are early-game, mid-game, late-game, push, turtle, gank, 4 defend one, heroes and so on. There are heroes for so many different specific scenarios that they will have different win rates at different times in a game. Pubstomping heroes will always have a high win-rate in public games where people have zero coordination, but when's the last time you've seen bloodseeker win against a coordinated team? Yea, i thought so. Your defense is that these heroes can be countered in the early game, so that they aren't so OP in the late game. This isn't reflected in the stats. These heroes have a >50% win rate throughout the game, including the early game, and get better as the game progresses. It's like arguing with a bunch of scientific illiterates. Spectre has a 51% winrate, that's pretty close to the 50% you're talking about, no? http://stats.dota2.be/herostatsRiki has 52%. Close to 50% as well. And ursa is the highest but he's also the king of pubstomps, and is a horrible hero. And no, carries in DotA aren't OP. Seriously you're a horrible player getting stomped in pubs, you have no idea of what balance in DotA is about. Ursa is 58% on those stats, and these heroes get better as the game goes on, while the stats do not show them getting worse at the start of the game. Interesting that all this talk about me knowing nothing about the game has suddenly stopped, as the numbers show these heroes are overpowered. Although that was only one of the many points in my post. The other being very lopsided games, which nonetheless needlessly drag on.
Sigh....
Heroes that are currently "OP" according to you and your concept of balance will probably fall off as the hero pool grows larger.
Also, balance should be discussed at the highest levels of play. There's a reason Ursa is barely picked at all by pro teams, he's the very definition of a pubstomper hero. And since most games are low-skilled, Ursa gets high win rates, it's only logical for that to happen.
The only thing I'd consider OP right now is Dendi playing invoker. WTF is that shit.
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On May 12 2012 23:38 mordk wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 22:35 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:25 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:16 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:05 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. And your opinions and 'statistics' are irrelevant as well. You think spectre is OP because she gets a high winrate later in the game? Gee, a super hard carry that wins lategame when a lot of farm has been accumulated, how surprising. Or riki and ursa, midgame heroes having a big mid-game win-rate, geeee, that sure is surprise, wait what's that? Ursa and riki fall off lategame? Who would've thought. It's like you want all heroes have 50% win rate at both early, mid and lategame. You are either incredibly ignorant or incredibly stupid, not quite sure which it is. DotA is not like SC2 because there are early-game, mid-game, late-game, push, turtle, gank, 4 defend one, heroes and so on. There are heroes for so many different specific scenarios that they will have different win rates at different times in a game. Pubstomping heroes will always have a high win-rate in public games where people have zero coordination, but when's the last time you've seen bloodseeker win against a coordinated team? Yea, i thought so. Your defense is that these heroes can be countered in the early game, so that they aren't so OP in the late game. This isn't reflected in the stats. These heroes have a >50% win rate throughout the game, including the early game, and get better as the game progresses. It's like arguing with a bunch of scientific illiterates. Spectre has a 51% winrate, that's pretty close to the 50% you're talking about, no? http://stats.dota2.be/herostatsRiki has 52%. Close to 50% as well. And ursa is the highest but he's also the king of pubstomps, and is a horrible hero. And no, carries in DotA aren't OP. Seriously you're a horrible player getting stomped in pubs, you have no idea of what balance in DotA is about. Ursa is 58% on those stats, and these heroes get better as the game goes on, while the stats do not show them getting worse at the start of the game. Interesting that all this talk about me knowing nothing about the game has suddenly stopped, as the numbers show these heroes are overpowered. Although that was only one of the many points in my post. The other being very lopsided games, which nonetheless needlessly drag on. Sigh.... Heroes that are currently "OP" according to you and your concept of balance will probably fall off as the hero pool grows larger. Also, balance should be discussed at the highest levels of play. There's a reason Ursa is barely picked at all by pro teams, he's the very definition of a pubstomper hero. And since most games are low-skilled, Ursa gets high win rates, it's only logical for that to happen. The only thing I'd consider OP right now is Dendi playing invoker. WTF is that shit.
don't forget to pajkatt's AM :D
This shit is more insane than dendi's invoker.
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Statistics don't mean anything if they have no practical interpretation.
Your samples sizes are small, and there is far too much noise in the data due to the incomplete matchmaking system as well as other extenuating factors. That's not even bringing in the issue of correlation not implying causation either.
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On May 12 2012 23:40 dragonborn wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 23:38 mordk wrote:On May 12 2012 22:35 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:25 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:16 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:05 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. And your opinions and 'statistics' are irrelevant as well. You think spectre is OP because she gets a high winrate later in the game? Gee, a super hard carry that wins lategame when a lot of farm has been accumulated, how surprising. Or riki and ursa, midgame heroes having a big mid-game win-rate, geeee, that sure is surprise, wait what's that? Ursa and riki fall off lategame? Who would've thought. It's like you want all heroes have 50% win rate at both early, mid and lategame. You are either incredibly ignorant or incredibly stupid, not quite sure which it is. DotA is not like SC2 because there are early-game, mid-game, late-game, push, turtle, gank, 4 defend one, heroes and so on. There are heroes for so many different specific scenarios that they will have different win rates at different times in a game. Pubstomping heroes will always have a high win-rate in public games where people have zero coordination, but when's the last time you've seen bloodseeker win against a coordinated team? Yea, i thought so. Your defense is that these heroes can be countered in the early game, so that they aren't so OP in the late game. This isn't reflected in the stats. These heroes have a >50% win rate throughout the game, including the early game, and get better as the game progresses. It's like arguing with a bunch of scientific illiterates. Spectre has a 51% winrate, that's pretty close to the 50% you're talking about, no? http://stats.dota2.be/herostatsRiki has 52%. Close to 50% as well. And ursa is the highest but he's also the king of pubstomps, and is a horrible hero. And no, carries in DotA aren't OP. Seriously you're a horrible player getting stomped in pubs, you have no idea of what balance in DotA is about. Ursa is 58% on those stats, and these heroes get better as the game goes on, while the stats do not show them getting worse at the start of the game. Interesting that all this talk about me knowing nothing about the game has suddenly stopped, as the numbers show these heroes are overpowered. Although that was only one of the many points in my post. The other being very lopsided games, which nonetheless needlessly drag on. Sigh.... Heroes that are currently "OP" according to you and your concept of balance will probably fall off as the hero pool grows larger. Also, balance should be discussed at the highest levels of play. There's a reason Ursa is barely picked at all by pro teams, he's the very definition of a pubstomper hero. And since most games are low-skilled, Ursa gets high win rates, it's only logical for that to happen. The only thing I'd consider OP right now is Dendi playing invoker. WTF is that shit. don't forget to pajkatt's AM :D This shit is more insane than dendi's invoker.
not really, I'd say Dendi's Invoker > Farmkatt
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On May 12 2012 22:35 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 22:25 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:16 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:05 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. And your opinions and 'statistics' are irrelevant as well. You think spectre is OP because she gets a high winrate later in the game? Gee, a super hard carry that wins lategame when a lot of farm has been accumulated, how surprising. Or riki and ursa, midgame heroes having a big mid-game win-rate, geeee, that sure is surprise, wait what's that? Ursa and riki fall off lategame? Who would've thought. It's like you want all heroes have 50% win rate at both early, mid and lategame. You are either incredibly ignorant or incredibly stupid, not quite sure which it is. DotA is not like SC2 because there are early-game, mid-game, late-game, push, turtle, gank, 4 defend one, heroes and so on. There are heroes for so many different specific scenarios that they will have different win rates at different times in a game. Pubstomping heroes will always have a high win-rate in public games where people have zero coordination, but when's the last time you've seen bloodseeker win against a coordinated team? Yea, i thought so. Your defense is that these heroes can be countered in the early game, so that they aren't so OP in the late game. This isn't reflected in the stats. These heroes have a >50% win rate throughout the game, including the early game, and get better as the game progresses. It's like arguing with a bunch of scientific illiterates. Spectre has a 51% winrate, that's pretty close to the 50% you're talking about, no? http://stats.dota2.be/herostatsRiki has 52%. Close to 50% as well. And ursa is the highest but he's also the king of pubstomps, and is a horrible hero. And no, carries in DotA aren't OP. Seriously you're a horrible player getting stomped in pubs, you have no idea of what balance in DotA is about. Ursa is 58% on those stats, and these heroes get better as the game goes on, while the stats do not show them getting worse at the start of the game. Interesting that all this talk about me knowing nothing about the game has suddenly stopped, as the numbers show these heroes are overpowered. Although that was only one of the many points in my post. The other being very lopsided games, which nonetheless needlessly drag on.
>58% winrate in MMs
>MMs
pubstomp hero =/= OP hero
oops should have edited above post
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On May 12 2012 23:53 DoNotDisturb wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 23:40 dragonborn wrote:On May 12 2012 23:38 mordk wrote:On May 12 2012 22:35 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:25 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:16 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:05 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. And your opinions and 'statistics' are irrelevant as well. You think spectre is OP because she gets a high winrate later in the game? Gee, a super hard carry that wins lategame when a lot of farm has been accumulated, how surprising. Or riki and ursa, midgame heroes having a big mid-game win-rate, geeee, that sure is surprise, wait what's that? Ursa and riki fall off lategame? Who would've thought. It's like you want all heroes have 50% win rate at both early, mid and lategame. You are either incredibly ignorant or incredibly stupid, not quite sure which it is. DotA is not like SC2 because there are early-game, mid-game, late-game, push, turtle, gank, 4 defend one, heroes and so on. There are heroes for so many different specific scenarios that they will have different win rates at different times in a game. Pubstomping heroes will always have a high win-rate in public games where people have zero coordination, but when's the last time you've seen bloodseeker win against a coordinated team? Yea, i thought so. Your defense is that these heroes can be countered in the early game, so that they aren't so OP in the late game. This isn't reflected in the stats. These heroes have a >50% win rate throughout the game, including the early game, and get better as the game progresses. It's like arguing with a bunch of scientific illiterates. Spectre has a 51% winrate, that's pretty close to the 50% you're talking about, no? http://stats.dota2.be/herostatsRiki has 52%. Close to 50% as well. And ursa is the highest but he's also the king of pubstomps, and is a horrible hero. And no, carries in DotA aren't OP. Seriously you're a horrible player getting stomped in pubs, you have no idea of what balance in DotA is about. Ursa is 58% on those stats, and these heroes get better as the game goes on, while the stats do not show them getting worse at the start of the game. Interesting that all this talk about me knowing nothing about the game has suddenly stopped, as the numbers show these heroes are overpowered. Although that was only one of the many points in my post. The other being very lopsided games, which nonetheless needlessly drag on. Sigh.... Heroes that are currently "OP" according to you and your concept of balance will probably fall off as the hero pool grows larger. Also, balance should be discussed at the highest levels of play. There's a reason Ursa is barely picked at all by pro teams, he's the very definition of a pubstomper hero. And since most games are low-skilled, Ursa gets high win rates, it's only logical for that to happen. The only thing I'd consider OP right now is Dendi playing invoker. WTF is that shit. don't forget to pajkatt's AM :D This shit is more insane than dendi's invoker. not really, I'd say Dendi's Invoker > Farmkatt
Noooooooo!
+850 gpm > dendi's invoker
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On May 12 2012 22:35 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 22:25 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:16 paralleluniverse wrote:On May 12 2012 22:05 Unleashing wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. And your opinions and 'statistics' are irrelevant as well. You think spectre is OP because she gets a high winrate later in the game? Gee, a super hard carry that wins lategame when a lot of farm has been accumulated, how surprising. Or riki and ursa, midgame heroes having a big mid-game win-rate, geeee, that sure is surprise, wait what's that? Ursa and riki fall off lategame? Who would've thought. It's like you want all heroes have 50% win rate at both early, mid and lategame. You are either incredibly ignorant or incredibly stupid, not quite sure which it is. DotA is not like SC2 because there are early-game, mid-game, late-game, push, turtle, gank, 4 defend one, heroes and so on. There are heroes for so many different specific scenarios that they will have different win rates at different times in a game. Pubstomping heroes will always have a high win-rate in public games where people have zero coordination, but when's the last time you've seen bloodseeker win against a coordinated team? Yea, i thought so. Your defense is that these heroes can be countered in the early game, so that they aren't so OP in the late game. This isn't reflected in the stats. These heroes have a >50% win rate throughout the game, including the early game, and get better as the game progresses. It's like arguing with a bunch of scientific illiterates. Spectre has a 51% winrate, that's pretty close to the 50% you're talking about, no? http://stats.dota2.be/herostatsRiki has 52%. Close to 50% as well. And ursa is the highest but he's also the king of pubstomps, and is a horrible hero. And no, carries in DotA aren't OP. Seriously you're a horrible player getting stomped in pubs, you have no idea of what balance in DotA is about. Ursa is 58% on those stats, and these heroes get better as the game goes on, while the stats do not show them getting worse at the start of the game. Interesting that all this talk about me knowing nothing about the game has suddenly stopped, as the numbers show these heroes are overpowered. Although that was only one of the many points in my post. The other being very lopsided games, which nonetheless needlessly drag on.
the amount of lol in these post is frightening. you really do not know anything about the game if you really believe that the numbers show anything at all.
first of all, any hero can be overpowered in any given game. it all depends on the flow of the game. the only reason why ursa is a special case is because of how terrible people are at the game. he's an easy and simple hero to play that can kill heroes very quickly. simple as that. choose him in your first game of dota ever and you'll see that you will kill everyone. get to high mmr and you'll see that you will kill no one, where players are obviously better. this is because there is little to no skill scaling with ursa. in other words, ursa has no depth in his gameplay mechanics. all he does is run up/blink into people and hit them. this is true for every level of the game.
the difference in a player's skill does not make it so a hero is overpowered. that's like saying forcefields are underpowered in sc2 because some bronze player uses them to block himself off and ends up losing his army.
ursa is only an early/mid game ganker-carry. he's also piss worthless if he doesn't get kills because he's a pretty bad hero when it comes to what actual carries are supposed to be good at. the only thing that makes him good for pubs is the fact that most pubs are easy as hell to gank with virtually any hero. his usefulness banks on the fact that ganks are going to be successful because he needs to be ahead in levels or the other team has to be behind in levels. once it gets to the point where most heroes are 18-20, ursa suddenly becomes horrible unless he's like level 25 at that point. even then it's very hard to carry a game with ursa when it gets there.
what makes him a really bad farmer is he has no escape in addition to not scaling particularly well with items and has relatively no utility in his skills - unlike a hero like drow or spectre, which excel in both areas. sure, he can deal maybe 400-500 damage instantly with his 2nd ability in the early game, but it's also easy to counter. wards, stuns, and good game sense can go a long way when it comes to avoiding deaths against ursa - or any ganker for that matter.
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Are people seriously whining about Dota being imbalances? Dota is one of the most (if not the most) balanced action rts games and extremely balanced game.
Anyone who whines about balance is mad that they got stomped by X hero in a pub game.
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Lol I disappear for ONE DAY and this thread goes to shit :/
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I'm still dazzled by the idea balance is only about win % xD
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is anyone else havin trouble finding a game? i cant even que.
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Lalalaland34507 Posts
My friends are crashing right this moment as well.
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Seems to be working fine for me.
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Lalalaland34507 Posts
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played ~60 games and thinks he can talk about balance... =.=
i suggest posting your whole spiel in one of the dota 2 USW chat channels if you want people to agree with you 'cause you sure aren't going to find any sensible forum that will
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On May 12 2012 22:11 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 22:06 superstartran wrote:On May 12 2012 22:02 paralleluniverse wrote:
There seems to be increased talk about ways to beat Ursa in the last several posts, but this is all irrelevant. As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics. Statistics with no context or analysis behind them only demonstrate how dumb you are. And I say that as politely as I can, because it is blatantly obvious that you're trolling. Feel free to look at my 1000 post history. I never troll. Ever. And nearly all of the topics I post in are serious and substantive. The "out of context" comment is always made when people can't discredit statistics, talk in generalities, and have no specific counterarguement. The context that is that it's the win rate over the length of the games that include a particular hero, taken from a random sample of DotA 2 games.
1) Your statistics are for one taken from public matchmaking games, therefore invalidating the discussion already. Various heroes like Invoker are extremely difficult for low level players for play, and yet are highly banned all the time because he is a fucking team fight monster that does massive AoE and has huge amounts of disables at his disposal ranging from Cold Snap, Tornado, Deafening Blast, and Ice Wall. Heroes like Lich and Ursa are effective particularly at low levels of play because they are so braindead easy to play, and are effective because people don't know how to play against them, not because they are good at that level of play.
2) You're a fucking idiot if you think Ursa is any way shape or form overpowered. He is the ultimate pub stomp hero because public players do not buy wards, do not ever gank jungle, and always let Ursa get ahead on levels/farm by taking Roshan early. He is such an easy hero to counter even with all the farm in the world, since he is god awful easy to kite, and is smashed by superior stuns like Beastmaster Roar, Bane Elemental's Ult, and Batrider lasso.
3) You're obviously bad as fuck, or a huge fucking troll. Stop polluting this forum because it's blatantly obvious you have no idea what you're talking about. We've already listed the counters and why your graphs are simply wrong. If you take a sample of competitive games, you'll find that certain heroes are picked/banned far more than Ursa for a damn reason.
I could go on and on about how you're wrong, but it's not worth my time. The only graphs in Starcraft 2 that are noteworthy in the first place are the ones that involve only professional level of play. The graph you just listed is the equivalent of attempting to utilize Battle.Net winrates to justify a balance claim, which basically means you're either a huge idiot, or a massive troll.
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Paralleluniverse is just aces in my book.
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Balancing dota based off of all pick pub games seems a lot like balancing SC2 off of free for all games.
I would also say that:
1. With about 100 heroes, perfect statistical balance is almost impossible.
2. Perfect statistical balance is overrated. (especially in all pick pub games)
3. In the end if you are having fun, balance is irrelevant.
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EPT
