EPTGeneral Discussion - Page 541
| Forum Index > Dota 2 General |
IRC chatter should remain in IRC - http://webchat.quakenet.org/?channels=tl.dota2 Posts that relate to topics with their own thread, such as in News, Tournaments or Strategy should go in those threads. | ||
|
Skullflower
United States3779 Posts
| ||
Kipsate
Netherlands45349 Posts
On May 13 2012 13:38 Skullflower wrote: I think the fact that you feel Ursa is OP completely invalidates everything you have and ever will write ursa has +50% winrate in pubs your arguments are all invalid | ||
|
paralleluniverse
4065 Posts
On May 13 2012 13:29 NB wrote: so tell me 1 thing: is 4 gates considered imbalance in sc2? bc majority of PvX games played in master league that the Protoss executed 4 gates, he won. This is true and the statistic was taken soon after sc2 was first released. If it was imbalance, why Protoss never win a single major tournaments in the first year of sc2 except MC? There is a requirement that to be met in EVERY balance debate: You need to play the game at the top level. Are you playing ANY competitive game at top level? You really think that your stats would mean anything if you dont even understand the game? All you brought up in this thread was stat 1, stat 2. How about you pick ursa riki in 1 team and im gona be on the other side, show me how the hero is really imbalance? On another topic: is match history only limited to 72 pages? im pretty sure i have played way more games than 7x72 -_- Whether or not 4 gate is OP is not a question that can be answered with statistics, because there are no statistics on 4 gate win rates. If you have some, then please share it. There are only statistics on Protoss win rates. The latest values are here: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/5202424 I think the most useful indicator of SC2 balance is Blizzard's adjusted win rates of high rated players. Balancing based on the number of players that win tournaments or unadjusted win rates which are released monthly, have the problem that they aren't adjusted for skill which is equivalent to adjusting for skill under the assumption that everyone in tournament games are equally skilled, which is clearly not true. So the fact that Protoss has very few tournament wins back then can be due to a number of factors, which should be looked at more closely, e.g. the most skilled Protoss players are not as skilled as the most skilled Terran players, or Terran has a higher skill cap, or Protoss was underpowered. It did turn out that it was mostly the last one, and Protoss was buffed later, and this made the win rates better, not worse. Also, you dodged my entire post, which you quoted. | ||
|
LAN-f34r
New Zealand2099 Posts
| ||
|
Comogury
United States412 Posts
On May 13 2012 13:27 paralleluniverse wrote: Where are these mythical high level stats? http://www.gosugamers.net/dota/news.php?id=13894 sgndt 2010 no bans, one pick, one loss 0% win rate in one game http://www.gosugamers.net/dota/news/11378-dota-drafting-statistics 109 competitive -cm games in dota1 2 years ago banned 8, picked twice, one win, one loss 50% win rate in 2 games http://www.playdota.com/forums/showthread.php?t=274295 -cm games in dota1 2 years ago banned 4, picked 8, four wins, four losses 50% win rate in 8 games http://esfiworld.com/feature/dota-2-competitive-hero-tier-list-march-2012 ursa is one level above shit tier http://forum.gamesports.net/dota/showthread.php?1952-Competitive-Hero-Usage ursa picked once in "the defense" tournament and loses once so you're wondering where the high level statistics are? well, obviously barely any exists because ursa is never picked. he's never picked because obviously there are more op heroes than ursa. | ||
|
wurm
Philippines2296 Posts
On May 13 2012 14:17 LAN-f34r wrote: Look, everyone is making variations of one argument - Ursa is only good vs low level players, and 99% of the time that is where he is in a game. This sets a bias in those statistics where only low level games are represented. That and obviously that some here are at the same level. Kudos to the guy above me with the -cm/pro-level statistics on Ursa proving that if Ursa really was OP, he would be top pick before or even now. And another thing, Ghost Scepter and Force Staff hard counters Ursa, true story. Relatively cheap items, too. | ||
|
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
On May 13 2012 14:05 paralleluniverse wrote: Whether or not 4 gate is OP is not a question that can be answered with statistics, because there are no statistics on 4 gate win rates. If you have some, then please share it. There are only statistics on Protoss win rates. The latest values are here: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/5202424 I think the most useful indicator of SC2 balance is Blizzard's adjusted win rates of high rated players. Balancing based on the number of players that win tournaments or unadjusted win rates which are released monthly, have the problem that they aren't adjusted for skill which is equivalent to adjusting for skill under the assumption that everyone in tournament games are equally skilled, which is clearly not true. So the fact that Protoss has very few tournament wins back then can be due to a number of factors, which should be looked at more closely, e.g. the most skilled Protoss players are not as skilled as the most skilled Terran players, or Terran has a higher skill cap, or Protoss was underpowered. It did turn out that it was mostly the last one, and Protoss was buffed later, and this made the win rates better, not worse. Also, you dodged my entire post, which you quoted. The only statistics that have mattered for DotA balance are (mainly) competitive statistics. If that's not what you like, then I'll just let you know that you better just get used to it or move onto another game. You could even argue they should take in all types of statistics, but the fact that ursa is typically never played in competitive games balances out its pub record. I've even said in this very thread that ursa is THE best pub hero in the game, but nerfing it is unnecessary if you can counter it with good play, even if it is a bit difficult. You give an example of protoss being underpowered rather than terrans being better, however, in the case of ursa, it would be most pub play not being good enough rather than ursa being overpowered. | ||
|
Unleashing
Denmark14978 Posts
He doesn't know how team/item/build-synergy affects the game and apparently is oblivious to the fact that DotA is a team game. He's just a pubster that got stomped by ursa and is butthurt about it. DotA isn't SC2 so comparing them like that is incredibly bad. Some heroes in DotA require little skill to achieve maximum effeciency, some require higher. That's why heroes like invoker have low win-rates despite being among one of the strongest and most flexible heroes in the pool. If a hero requires little to achieve maximum effeciency, it'll be easier to stomp noobs with. Bloodseeker, ursa, huskar, so on. The best heroes in DotA are flexible heroes, windrunner, invoker, nature's prophet and so on. And balance in Dota is only relative due to it depending on the picks on your team and the enemy. If the enemy has zero disables and only slow squishy heroes, GEE I WONDER WHY URSA IS GOING TO HAVE A GOOD TIME. The enemies picked bad picks against ursa and lost. Which is what happens in pubs all the time. If you pick disables and ways to keep ursa away from you he's suddenly worthless. If your team doesn't pick according to what the enemy picks, you have no right to talk about balance. And 99% of pubs do not think before picking. It's pretty much like complaining about losing to DT because you didn't get detection. That is EXACTLY what you're doing. Complaining about a hero winning a lot against people that don't get what you're meant to get against him. | ||
|
paralleluniverse
4065 Posts
On May 13 2012 14:57 Comogury wrote: http://www.gosugamers.net/dota/news.php?id=13894 sgndt 2010 no bans, one pick, one loss 0% win rate in one game http://www.gosugamers.net/dota/news/11378-dota-drafting-statistics 109 competitive -cm games in dota1 2 years ago banned 8, picked twice, one win, one loss 50% win rate in 2 games http://www.playdota.com/forums/showthread.php?t=274295 -cm games in dota1 2 years ago banned 4, picked 8, four wins, four losses 50% win rate in 8 games http://esfiworld.com/feature/dota-2-competitive-hero-tier-list-march-2012 ursa is one level above shit tier http://forum.gamesports.net/dota/showthread.php?1952-Competitive-Hero-Usage ursa picked once in "the defense" tournament and loses once so you're wondering where the high level statistics are? well, obviously barely any exists because ursa is never picked. he's never picked because obviously there are more op heroes than ursa. You realize that this supports what I say. I've never said that Ursa was overpowered in tournament level play, only that he was generally overpowered. And you've links just go to show that DotA is imbalanced at the tournament level with a large proportion of heroes rarely used, e.g. in the second last link. So not only is the game imbalanced at the level of most players, but also imbalance in a differnt way at the top level too. | ||
|
paralleluniverse
4065 Posts
| ||
|
Logo
United States7542 Posts
Even Blizzard uses a win % stat that takes into account ELO rankings when they make their balance talk. If they didn't all you'd see is wild noise and fluctuations based on random chance in the MM system. Keep in mind that given random chance as is you generally see a balance win rate fluctuate +/- a few percentages anyways. So 58% would be barely OP even if Ursa was OP in a way we cared about (which he's not). Even if there was a correlation, you can't really prove causation with that data. There's a lot of other factors that may clue into it since not all players at each part of the ELO curve play the same heroes. | ||
|
Chiharu Harukaze
12112 Posts
On May 13 2012 13:21 paralleluniverse wrote: Stop making shit up. You don't know a damn thing about statistics. I'm sure my degree in statistics and analysis is useless then. Thanks for letting me know. On May 13 2012 13:21 paralleluniverse wrote: How do you know it has no practical interpretation? Interpretation is only as useful as the data you have, The data you present has far too many factors influencing it to be worth analysing. The matchmaking system is not perfect. This is a team game where every player's actions can have an effect on the game. The hero pool is still limited so even if DotA2 theoretically was a port of a perfectly balanced DotA, it would still be missing a lot of its internal components. The best model you could make here on the influence of heros would still have far too many interaction components to run a significantly feasible generalised linear model. And then you also have the regular problems in non-parametric analysis. On May 13 2012 13:21 paralleluniverse wrote: Where is your source that the sample size is small? Your own data. The values for games over 60 min or so is ridiculously small and the error bars start approaching +/- 50%. That's meaningless data. On May 13 2012 13:21 paralleluniverse wrote: How do you know there is too much noise in the data? Do you know how to read error bars? There is clearly a trend of >50% win rates from the data, even when the error bars are small, and when they're large they the imbalance could be even worse than it is reported, I'm going to ignore the first fallacy that the error bars are a useful term since what is more useful in this case would be the distribution of the idiosyncratic risk (ε_i). Noise does not just mean variance here. Admittedly, I might be using the term loosely here. It's also about the explanatory variables you choose to develop the model, compensating for the covariance and interference between them, and dealing with the random terms because the effect of external factors could always potentially cause confounding errors, whether you recognise they exist or not. Specifically, the interaction effects are likely to be of the most concern. On May 13 2012 13:21 paralleluniverse wrote: There is a functioning matchmaking system, which attempts to move everyone's win rates to 50%. And these win rates don't even control for skill level like Blizzard's. Blizzard's unadjusted win rates are all 50%. It's only after adjusting for skill level they are between usually 50-55%. The fact that even if a matchmaker that moves everyone's win rates to 50%, they still aren't 50%, is a colossal fuck up. The problem is that Starcraft2 is a solo game so the game can be balanced on a solo level between races. However, MOBA-style games are team games where the picks and bans can greatly influence the data. In public games, there is often a lack of strategy amongst the team in picking optimal selections and this can cause issues in determining the underlying causes. There's no use saying "Well, ZZZ is a useless hero" if further inspection of the data reveals that there is a extraneous variable that has not been properly accounted for in your analysis. Also, again I bring up the point of it being a team game. If you can't match teams correctly in terms of skill level, you are going to face problems where one team is simply better than the other, which makes any resultant data from that game much less useful. And then even if the two teams are equal in skill, whether each player is plating a hero they are comfortable on, what positions they are playing, do they feel like try-harding or not, etc. matter. On May 13 2012 13:21 paralleluniverse wrote: Balance also isn't a causation issue. A causation issue would be whether or not Ursa's overpowered spell makes him overpowered. Balance is by definition whether or not a win rate close to 50%. The stats show that Ursa is imbalanced, by definition. It doesn't show what causes Ursa to imbalance (too much damage, too much HP, attacks too fast, etc), but it shows that he is. If you define balance to be all about whether win-rates are at 50%, then yes you're completely correct. But that's an incredibly shallow interpretation of balance. Balance also involves the interaction of many other external variables such as team line ups and player skill and how much of the depth of knowledge players are aware of. Let's theorise for example that hero ZZZ has a tendency to be picked when players of a higher skill level feel like they want to stomp people of inferior skill after tanking their Elo for fun, and not when they actually play serious games with people of their own skill level. People who are new to the game do not pick ZZZ because maybe there's a lot of depth of knowledge required to play ZZZ. You data will obvious be skewed because the real issue behind the >50% win rate will be the skill disparity between players and not the hero itself. If you're interested in learning more about statistical analysis, you may find the following books useful:
| ||
|
Logo
United States7542 Posts
Interpretation is only as useful as the data you have, The data you present has far too many factors influencing it to be worth analysing. The matchmaking system is not perfect. This is a team game where every player's actions can have an effect on the game. The champion pool is still limited so even if DotA2 theoretically was a port of a perfectly balanced DotA, it would still be missing a lot of its internal components. Generally the matchmaking is NEVER perfect. That's not to say that games are wildly imbalanced, but in any ELO system that actually shows you your mmr it's VERY rare to have a perfectly even match and there's almost always a difference between the ELO ratings of at least a little bit (usually only a little bit). It's a pretty safe bet a game like DotA2 has the same situation. The important point is when you're talking about 1million sample points if each match was inherently imbalanced by some small amount that can add up to swing a win % pretty significantly. | ||
|
NeonFlare
Finland1307 Posts
On May 13 2012 16:32 paralleluniverse wrote: Also, if we compared this to SC2, SC2 is not a one-sided romp at any skill level, while DotA 2 is at basically every skill level. And SC2 doesn't last 45 minutes. Why do you even play the game if that's what it is to you? | ||
|
zeehar
Korea (South)3804 Posts
| ||
Firebolt145
Lalalaland34503 Posts
| ||
|
Comogury
United States412 Posts
On May 13 2012 16:29 paralleluniverse wrote: You realize that this supports what I say. I've never said that Ursa was overpowered in tournament level play, only that he was generally overpowered. And you've links just go to show that DotA is imbalanced at the tournament level with a large proportion of heroes rarely used, e.g. in the second last link. So not only is the game imbalanced at the level of most players, but also imbalance in a differnt way at the top level too. if you read my last post, i explicitly said that any hero can be overpowered in any given game. i never said anything along the lines of balanced gameplay. however, you didn't respond to it, so i'm just going to assume you didn't read it. or chose to ignore it because it's the truth on the matter and don't want to look like a fool by trying to refute it. i think most people will agree that the game is imbalanced, but not in the way that you are suggesting ursa is. everyone here is saying ursa is very good only in pubs. no one is disagreeing there. NO ONE. however, when you bring in an overgeneralization of ursa in the statement "he is op," you make yourself look like an ignorant, butthurt nerd that doesn't know how to play against him. if you are too dense to recognize that there is a clear distinction between "op under certain circumstances" and "game breaking imbalanced," you shouldn't be commenting on the matter. (in case you're still confused, dota heroes fall under the first catergory of imbalance) | ||
|
Chiharu Harukaze
12112 Posts
On May 13 2012 17:03 Firebolt145 wrote: Everything Chiharu said except with 'heroes' except of champions. Goddamn LoL players coming in dirtying our forums up! :D WOW. And I was trying to hard to remember to use "hero" instead. Old habits die hard I guess haha. I fixed it all for you, k? :3 | ||
|
dragonborn
4781 Posts
if you want to whine about something, this should be tide!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D :D :D btw i have +90% win rate against ursa, so easy to stop in pubs. | ||
|
drew-chan
Malaysia1517 Posts
On May 13 2012 17:13 dragonborn wrote: peoples whining about Ursa? really? if you want to whine about something, this should be tide!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D :D :D btw i have +90% win rate against ursa, so easy to stop in pubs. I don't even have a loss against ursa in my +-400 total games played > < Not meaning to be cocky here, but I usually find just kiting ursa will be fine with forcestaffs and ghost scepters etc. | ||
| ||
