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On September 18 2018 07:12 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2018 06:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 18 2018 02:19 Simberto wrote:On September 16 2018 17:41 GreenHorizons wrote:*looks coyly at introvert* Meet the Creationist Helping to Change Arizona School Standards on Evolution
Arizona Superintendent Diane Douglas tapped a young-earth creationist to serve last month on a committee tasked with revising the state's science curriculum standards on evolution.
Joseph Kezele, the president of the Arizona Origin Science Association, is a staunch believer in the idea that enough scientific evidence exists to back up the biblical story of creation. Douglas appointed him to an eight-member special working group at the Arizona Department of Education that completed a final review of the draft evolution teaching standards on August 30.
Kezele teaches biology at Arizona Christian University in Phoenix. He advocates teaching his version of "established, real science" in classrooms.
Evolution, he said, is a false explanation for life and should be taught so that students "can defend against it, if they want to."
"I'm not saying to put the Bible into the classroom, although the real science will confirm the Bible,"
He argued that scientific evidence supports his creationist ideas, including the claims that the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs were on board Noah's Ark.
ADE spokesperson Stefan Swiat said that Kezele was selected because of his position at Arizona Christian University. Swiat was unaware if Douglas knew that Kezele was a creationist when she selected him.
"One of the aims of the working group is to include a broad collection of contributors from the scientific community," Swiat wrote in an email. "Both the working group, as well as the head of ADE’s science standards, were completely unaware that Dr. Kezele was a creationist."
Kezele did not discuss his "personal creationist beliefs" with the working group, Swiat added.
As examples of the science that should be taught in classrooms to disprove evolution, Kezele offered unintelligible explanations about the human appendix and the strength of Earth's magnetic field.
Students should be able to judge for themselves whether the creation model or the evolutionary model "actually is consistent with the real scientific evidence that we have," Kezele said. "And then the students can do some thinking and see which one holds up. In general, that's what education should be, not just indoctrination." www.phoenixnewtimes.comI think what's most interesting about this is the guy isn't dumb. He knows he couldn't bring creationism into the curriculum so he slipped in just what he could. While I have my own personal issues with religion in general young earth creationism carries with it a whole host of other problematic issues. Namely that anyone adhering to it has a terribly distorted understanding of geological history. From which it makes a great deal of other discussions near impossible. A private university having the guy teach is fine for them I guess, but having him influence (even if only slightly) so many kids in a public school system is dangerously irresponsible and damaging to children's education. That said, he's right about it being important to think critically about evolution and where it might fall short in explaining various phenomena. Critically thinking about stuff is never wrong. The problem here is that thatperson quite obviously is not critically thinking about stuff. He has a dogma that must never be questioned ("The bible is literally true in every single aspect"), and arranges all of his "critical thinking" to make sure that that dogma is never violated. Creationism is such an incredibly weird thing, and it is very strange that it is actually a relevant force in the 21st century in a modern country. It is an ideaset entirely based on people wanting very much to believe one thing and using confirmation bias to produce a "theory" (which probably does not actually clear the necessary threshholds of scientific theories) to somehow deal with the fact that actual science is very clear that their base belief is utter nonsense. I am not talking about religion in general here. Religion in general is fine. I am talking about a very literal interpretation of the bible. That is very clearly nonsense. If you want to believe in the metaphorical truth of the bible, or whatever, that is totally fine and probably doesn't lead to as many problems with actual science. But if you claim that the earth was created in 7 days 6000 years ago, that is clearly and obviously nonsense. That shit can be some weird cult on a farm in the middle of nowhere, but it is very scary that these crazies are anywhere near education, and that apparently people are fine with that. Right, it's taken me a while to come to an acceptance of religion in general, but Dinosaurs on the Ark is just too damn much for me to have to worry about dispelling from kids that learned it from church and then had their pastor point to the theory part of evolution in textbooks as evidence it's all wrong. The key takeaway in my opinion is that there is a remarkable parallel between his argument and the argument from the center to the right for platforming white supremacists. Marketplace of ideas and all that. ___________________________________________________________________________ As for Kavanaugh, he is getting confirmed and getting Democrat votes, unless the anti Kavanaugh people plan on pressuring those Democrats out of the party (by not giving them any party support election wise or committee seats), then they have no room to get upset by Republicans voting the way that will get them reelected, regardless of whatever Kavanaugh did or didn't do to that woman. It is important to note that if you are into young-earth creationism, you don't "only" run afoul of evolution. You have major consistency problems with a lot of established scientific knowledge in a lot of fields. (Of course, all of those can be "solved" by claiming "god did it that way!", since there is by definition nothing an all-powerful being could not have done) You get problems with anything that dates something to before 4000 BC. So history might barely work out, but anything prehistoric doesn't work anymore. Astronomy leads to gigantic problems. You'll probably get a lot of problems with some of physics (Anything to do with nuclear radiation leads to dating methods that lead to ages larger than 6000 years.) And since a lot of sciences are interlocked, my guess would be that you cannot really deal with any science after the 18th century or so if you claim that the earth is 6000 years old. Would you mind expounding a bit on your point with regards to white supremacists? I am a bit uncertain as to what you want to say here. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kavanaugh: I have given up on predicting stuff in american politics after that 2016 election, where i was utterly certain that there is no way that any country would elect such an incompetent and unlikeable idiot. I HOPE that he doesn't get confirmed, since he seems to be an extraordinary bad choice for a lifetime appointment for a high judge.
Agreed on the widespread and compounding problems regarding reconciling scientific understandings with a <10,000 yo earth.
On the white supremacy tip, the professor is making the same argument that even the worst ideas (in his case creationism, for others white supremacy) should be defeated in debate. As if the professor is merely a well reasoned argument away from abandoning his beliefs of creationism (or for others, white supremacy). Like merely giving the notion a platform doesn't validate it in people's minds as a reasonable position to take.
Debating ideas like that gives them strength, it doesn't weaken them.
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On September 18 2018 07:09 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2018 06:51 xDaunt wrote:Here it comes: At the request of a number of committees of Congress, and for reasons of transparency, the President has directed the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Department of Justice (including the FBI) to provide for the immediate declassification of the following materials: (1) pages 10-12 and 17-34 of the June 2017 application to the FISA court in the matter of Carter W. Page; (2) all FBI reports of interviews with Bruce G. Ohr prepared in connection with the Russia investigation; and (3) all FBI reports of interviews prepared in connection with all Carter Page FISA applications.
In addition, President Donald J. Trump has directed the Department of Justice (including the FBI) to publicly release all text messages relating to the Russia investigation, without redaction, of James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and Bruce Ohr. Source. Finally. This is long overdue. The American people must be able to size up the scope of the problem within the FBI’s counterintelligence unit and DoJ top brass during the period the pee-tape dossier was used to justify domestic surveillance. Ohr and Comey are chief among these. Rest are basically already sunk and implicating others. I wonder if we get some juicy Susan Rice tie-ins out of all this. Apparently Bruce Ohr and Lisa Page have been cooperative witnesses. I expect what's coming to be very worthy of popcorn. Lots and lots of popcorn.
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I'm not accepting her testimony as gospel without looking deeper, I'm asking what the most reasonable explanations are and so far precious few alternatives have been offered. If you're going the "she's lying" route, the obvious question is "why?" "Because she opposes his confirmation" doesn't make sense because she's been saying it since 2012, so you have to provide some reason she'd make this up and tell her therapist about it. So far such explanations have been pretty thin.
If you're going the "she's mistaken" route, then it's true that both human perception and human memory are pretty faulty. But they still correlate to reality somewhat, and the final product usually at least resembles what happened; if we don't assume that, all eye witness accoubts would be useless. So if she said "he grabbed me and started pulling me toward a room," it'd be plausible that they were drunk and he started trying to dance with her or something.
The problem is, I can't think of the acceptable action that would easily be transmuted by the passage of time to "he pinned me to the bed, tried to rape me, and covered my mouth when I screamed." How does he wind up on top of her, or pulling at her clothes, or covering her screaming mouth in some more innocent circumstances?
The faultiness of human memory also makes the discrepancies weak defense. Like, I can remember my first kiss okay. I certainly remember the girl's name and face. I kinda remember the spot it happened, but I don't know a name for it and probably couldn't find it again if I tried. And I could guess at the year but couldn't begin to tell you month or day or day of the week or hour or minute or latitude or longitude lines. That's how human memory works, and if you really want to get off on a psychology digression we can try to look up citations for that, but honestly it's common sense. I've never been raped so I can only guess which parts stand out in memory more than others, but I don't think we have to do a series of controlled psychological experiments to figure that the attacker will be highlighted in bright unforgettable traumatic red, while the time and date will be in dull gray.
IIRC episode 1 of "Serial" has a more in-depth treatment of witness memory if you want more details. I haven't heard it in a while, but off the top of my head TL;DR people are really bad in general at remembering anything more than like a week ago unless something big happened to make it memorable, and even then they mostly remember stuff inasmuch as it was relevant to the thing that happened.
Edit:
On September 18 2018 03:58 xDaunt wrote: Nope, there definitely is not enough here to warrant opening an investigation. Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed on schedule. Looks like this prediction missed the mark. GH's prediction that he'll be confirmed with Democrat votes is still probably the smart money though.
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Looks like this prediction missed the mark. GH's prediction that he'll be confirmed with Democrat votes is still probably the smart money though.
So then what? Are those Democrats pariahs? Or are people vociferously against this nomination going to be told by the Democratic party to go support the same Democrats that will have helped Kavanaugh get on the court (and confirmed most of Trump's team)?
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Schiff is squealing:
Rep. Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, called President Trump’s decision Monday to order the declassification of documents concerning the federal Russia investigation a “clear abuse of power.”
“President Trump, in a clear abuse of power, has decided to intervene in a pending law enforcement investigation by ordering the selective release of materials he believes are helpful to his defense team and thinks will advance a false narrative,” Schiff, D-Calif., said in a statement.
“With respect to some of these materials, I have been previously informed by the FBI and Justice Department that they would consider their release a red line that must not be crossed as they may compromise sources and methods,” Schiff added. “This is evidently of no consequence to a President who cares about nothing about the country and everything about his narrow self-interest.”
Source.
Who the hell is he kidding? The country has been through political hell over the past two years as a result of what is in those FISA documents. How is it not in the public interest to finally learn whether there was ever any basis to any of this stuff at all? And if the FISA warrants were fraudulently procured as Trump has claimed (and let's face, he knows), then confidentiality/privilege do not apply to them anyway by virtue of one of Obama's executive orders that strips confidentiality in such circumstances. Furthermore, Trump unequivocally has the power to declassify this stuff anyway. So let's see it.
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So they're going to have an open-hearing circus on Monday before they confirm Kavanaugh. Whatever. He's still going to be approved.
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On September 18 2018 08:26 xDaunt wrote:Schiff is squealing: Show nested quote +Rep. Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, called President Trump’s decision Monday to order the declassification of documents concerning the federal Russia investigation a “clear abuse of power.”
“President Trump, in a clear abuse of power, has decided to intervene in a pending law enforcement investigation by ordering the selective release of materials he believes are helpful to his defense team and thinks will advance a false narrative,” Schiff, D-Calif., said in a statement.
“With respect to some of these materials, I have been previously informed by the FBI and Justice Department that they would consider their release a red line that must not be crossed as they may compromise sources and methods,” Schiff added. “This is evidently of no consequence to a President who cares about nothing about the country and everything about his narrow self-interest.” Source. Who the hell is he kidding? The country has been through political hell over the past two years as a result of what is in those FISA documents. How is it not in the public interest to finally learn whether there was ever any basis to any of this stuff at all? And if the FISA warrants were fraudulently procured as Trump has claimed (and let's face, he knows), then confidentiality/privilege do not apply to them anyway by virtue of one of Obama's executive orders that strips confidentiality in such circumstances. Furthermore, Trump unequivocally has the power to declassify this stuff anyway. So let's see it. Schiff & Co only have one play here because they’re out of options. They must pretend everything Trump does as it relates to the FBI/Mueller is unprecedented obstruction of justice stuff. Anything else is just going to not matter in changing headlines from the trickle of bad news from the investigation of the investigators. They have to have an alternative storyline, no matter how ludicrous, for their base to believe.
The “red line” talk goes back to the initial claim that releasing the Nunes memo would be an impermissible breach affecting national security. It turned out to be nothing. The steps to declassify from the top level are in response to obstruction by the Justice department. They’ve proven to relentlessly resist oversight and its about time they remembered they were created by acts of Congress and are overseen by citizen-elected representatives. It’s like they’re begging for another Church Committee, I swear.
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On September 18 2018 08:23 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +Looks like this prediction missed the mark. GH's prediction that he'll be confirmed with Democrat votes is still probably the smart money though. So then what? Are those Democrats pariahs? Or are people vociferously against this nomination going to be told by the Democratic party to go support the same Democrats that will have helped Kavanaugh get on the court (and confirmed most of Trump's team)? I mean, it's kind of a whole different conversation that you've had with plenty of liberals in the thread (including me a few times, I think) but i don't know where I fall on the question. On the one hand your Manchin's and such are pretty weak Democrats. On the other hand, some big stuff really does come down to small margins sometimes. Suppose that next week two Republicans announce they're a "no" on Kavanaugh (say, Murkowski and Collins), the Democrats browbeat their Manchins and Heitkamps into toeing the line, and Kavanaugh is defeated. Wouldn't that be a pretty big policy win for the big-tent approach? That would certainly go the other way with a Blankenship type in the WV seat. That's just a hypothetical, of course, but the failure of Obamacare repeal was a real example of the same thing. And if a couple marginal Republicans could be flipped to marginal Democrats, maybe the tax bill could have been stopped too.
I know I'm not saying anything you haven't heard before, and I'm afraid I'm not confident enough in my opinion of who should or shouldn't be in the tent to argue the centrist position with you; there are other times that I think wishy-washy centrists weaken the party as a whole. Xkcd had a graphic one time on the whole ideological history of the makeup of Congress, and it seemed to show pretty convincingly that the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008 were largely centrist Democrats flooding Congress... but the same centrists were largely the ones voted out in 2010. It's totally plausible to me that if the Democrats had a clearer idea what they stood for in 2006 and 2008 they might have done just as well in those years and weathered the storm better in 2010.
One reason this issue is hard for me to nail down is because there's really two different issues at hand. The surface question is "should we, true progressives, remain ideologically pure even if that hurts mainstream appeal, or should we allow a wider range of viewpoints into our coalition, even though it waters down our policy positions?" But the other, more awkward question is "to what degree are we, GreenHorizons and ChristianS, actually aiming for the same policy outcomes?" The big-tent people are a bit hard to pin down here, because they'll talk to the far-left ideologues like "we're both totally on the same page policy-wise, I'm just trying to be practical" when often they're actually barely left of center and don't want the same outcomes at all. The whole premise of forming broad coalitions sort of forces you to be a bit duplicitous like that.
Personally, there's a lot of issues on which I don't feel informed enough to agree or disagree with you. On the ones that are left, I agree with you a fair amount, but I'm still pretty sure I'm not far enough left for you. Some days I think we'd see eye to eye on most issues; other days I think I'm probably exactly the kind of wishy-washy center-left liberal you'd like to kick out of the party.
Anyway, sorry for the TL;DR.
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On September 18 2018 09:11 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2018 08:23 GreenHorizons wrote:Looks like this prediction missed the mark. GH's prediction that he'll be confirmed with Democrat votes is still probably the smart money though. So then what? Are those Democrats pariahs? Or are people vociferously against this nomination going to be told by the Democratic party to go support the same Democrats that will have helped Kavanaugh get on the court (and confirmed most of Trump's team)? I mean, it's kind of a whole different conversation that you've had with plenty of liberals in the thread (including me a few times, I think) but i don't know where I fall on the question. On the one hand your Manchin's and such are pretty weak Democrats. On the other hand, some big stuff really does come down to small margins sometimes. Suppose that next week two Republicans announce they're a "no" on Kavanaugh (say, Murkowski and Collins), the Democrats browbeat their Manchins and Heitkamps into toeing the line, and Kavanaugh is defeated. Wouldn't that be a pretty big policy win for the big-tent approach? That would certainly go the other way with a Blankenship type in the WV seat. That's just a hypothetical, of course, but the failure of Obamacare repeal was a real example of the same thing. And if a couple marginal Republicans could be flipped to marginal Democrats, maybe the tax bill could have been stopped too. I know I'm not saying anything you haven't heard before, and I'm afraid I'm not confident enough in my opinion of who should or shouldn't be in the tent to argue the centrist position with you; there are other times that I think wishy-washy centrists weaken the party as a whole. Xkcd had a graphic one time on the whole ideological history of the makeup of Congress, and it seemed to show pretty convincingly that the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008 were largely centrist Democrats flooding Congress... but the same centrists were largely the ones voted out in 2010. It's totally plausible to me that if the Democrats had a clearer idea what they stood for in 2006 and 2008 they might have done just as well in those years and weathered the storm better in 2010. One reason this issue is hard for me to nail down is because there's really two different issues at hand. The surface question is "should we, true progressives, remain ideologically pure even if that hurts mainstream appeal, or should we allow a wider range of viewpoints into our coalition, even though it waters down our policy positions?" But the other, more awkward question is "to what degree are we, GreenHorizons and ChristianS, actually aiming for the same policy outcomes?" The big-tent people are a bit hard to pin down here, because they'll talk to the far-left ideologues like "we're both totally on the same page policy-wise, I'm just trying to be practical" when often they're actually barely left of center and don't want the same outcomes at all. The whole premise of forming broad coalitions sort of forces you to be a bit duplicitous like that. Personally, there's a lot of issues on which I don't feel informed enough to agree or disagree with you. On the ones that are left, I agree with you a fair amount, but I'm still pretty sure I'm not far enough left for you. Some days I think we'd see eye to eye on most issues; other days I think I'm probably exactly the kind of wishy-washy center-left liberal you'd like to kick out of the party. Anyway, sorry for the TL;DR.
Pretty reasonable.
One thing I would point out is that the choice between Manchin and Blankenchip is one Democrats want. That's how they are able to act on behalf of their donors while blaming Republicans. That's why they wanted Trump, that's why they wanted Roy Moore, and so many more. Since their entire schtick at this point is simply being less bad than a Republican alternative, the more cartoonishly nefarious they can make their Republican opponent the worse they can be and loyal party members can still blame their badness on Republicans.
This is also part of why they want "civil discourse" with white nationalists, because if Republicans represent Nazi's all Democrats have to do is be slightly less bad than Nazi's and the "lesser evil" folks will be shaming the people who don't vote for them and calling the people demanding a different choice hopeless idiots who might as well not vote. All of this without the slightest bit of reflection on where that leads us.
The idea that one of the parties will circle back to champion those left behind for their corporate donors is total bullshit. Especially after Obama and Trump have demonstrated with the right mouthpiece you can just lie straight to the US populations face and get away with it.
The only question in my mind is whether enough centrists and Republicans (progressives too, see Gillium and AOC) realize they are getting played before things get so bad. The "big tent" theory has failed by every measure, the one thing people have to show for it was protecting legislation that made insurance companies profiting from sick people protected by the law.
The "big tent" as imagined by centrist Democrats is focused far more on moving progressives back to the right and supporting imperialism than it is about moving "moderate Republicans" into supporting more progressive policy. Failing to recognize that is the biggest threat to anyone who sincerely is fighting for equity and liberation and not simply trying to be slightly less morally reprehensible than Trump and crew.
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GH, I think you're missing the larger issue. The country simply isn't as far left politically as you want it to be. Obamacare was passed in the form that it was because democrats -- the party of the American left -- would not tolerate a more leftist, universal healthcare-type solution.
Beyond that, and reaching up to the Democratic leadership, what really matters is power, not ideas, principles, or values. The GOP leadership isn't really any different, which is why it has butt heads so much with Trump, who very much is an advocate of ideas, principles, and values for their own sake.
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So Kavanaugh's accuser still hasn't accepted the invitation to testify. She's apparently content to just throw a bomb at Kavanaugh and hide. Smells like defamation to me.
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Interesting. Before you were painting her as overeager to do a press tour. Now she just hasn't accepted Congress' invitation yet and that's proof it's just defamation. I think there's an analogy to be drawn here to the slut/prude dichotomy.
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On September 19 2018 02:22 ChristianS wrote: Interesting. Before you were painting her as overeager to do a press tour. Now she just hasn't accepted Congress' invitation yet and that's proof it's just defamation. I think there's an analogy to be drawn here to the slut/prude dichotomy. Of course she is over-eager to plaster herself all over the news. Just look at what's out there, including appearances by her attorney all over the place. What she's probably figuring out is that she's going to have a very bad time on Capitol Hill where she'll actually have to face some tough questions regarding what happened.
EDIT: Looks like Kavanaugh just retained defamation counsel. Source. He's ready to go.
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Yes, only a fake sexual assault victim would be scared by the prospect of being grilled by a bunch of hostile Senators about their alleged sexual assault. Real sexual assault victims would love to have that opportunity.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't he have to prove it didn't happen to win a defamation suit? Care to share how you think he could manage that? Because it rings to me of grandstanding/intimidation more than a real legal threat.
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On September 19 2018 03:08 ChristianS wrote: Yes, only a fake sexual assault victim would be scared by the prospect of being grilled by a bunch of hostile Senators about their alleged sexual assault. Real sexual assault victims would love to have that opportunity.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't he have to prove it didn't happen to win a defamation suit? Care to share how you think he could manage that? Because it rings to me of grandstanding/intimidation more than a real legal threat. Perhaps she should have considered that she'd have to defend her claim before she aired it all publicly? She made the choice to put herself in this position by going public.
Because he's a public person, he would have to prove that the statements are false. Right now, I think that he's in pretty good shape to do that. The only other known witness to what happened is on Kavanaugh's side. In contrast, the accuser has no corroborating evidence, plus a host of credibility issues listed above. As other evidence surfaces (if it surfaces), the calculus will change, but right now, it looks like Kavanaugh has the upper hand when it comes to the evidence. I doubt that he pursues the claim, however. There isn't much for him to gain.
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On September 19 2018 03:25 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2018 03:08 ChristianS wrote: Yes, only a fake sexual assault victim would be scared by the prospect of being grilled by a bunch of hostile Senators about their alleged sexual assault. Real sexual assault victims would love to have that opportunity.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't he have to prove it didn't happen to win a defamation suit? Care to share how you think he could manage that? Because it rings to me of grandstanding/intimidation more than a real legal threat. Perhaps she should have considered that she'd have to defend her claim before she aired it all publicly? She made the choice to put herself in this position by going public. Because he's a public person, he would have to prove that the statements are false. Right now, I think that he's in pretty good shape to do that. The only other known witness to what happened is on Kavanaugh's side. In contrast, the accuser has no corroborating evidence, plus a host of credibility issues listed above. As other evidence surfaces (if it surfaces), the calculus will change, but right now, it looks like Kavanaugh has the upper hand when it comes to the evidence. I doubt that he pursues the claim, however. There isn't much for him to gain. She didn't "go public" until her story got leaked, but w/e. TIL that if you rape a girl with your buddy and then she testifies it happened snd you both testify it didn't, that "proves" it didn't happen in a court of law.
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And of course, the fact that making live as horrible as possible for people who accuse powerful men of sexual abuse until their statements are totally and objectively proven without any remaining doubt (Which, lets be honest, will never happen, because powerful men, and especially powerful republican men, always have ways to spread additional doubt. See Hillary Email investigation) has the totally unwanted sideeffect of discouraging any additional allegations, no matter their merit, is a totally unintentional and completely unavoidable sideeffect.
Lets be honest here. If you were sexually abused by someone powerful, the smart way of dealing with that is keeping it silent, and possibly politely asking for hush money. Going public is gonna haunt you forever, and has high chances of ruining your life. That is not a good status quo to have.
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On September 19 2018 03:33 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2018 03:25 xDaunt wrote:On September 19 2018 03:08 ChristianS wrote: Yes, only a fake sexual assault victim would be scared by the prospect of being grilled by a bunch of hostile Senators about their alleged sexual assault. Real sexual assault victims would love to have that opportunity.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't he have to prove it didn't happen to win a defamation suit? Care to share how you think he could manage that? Because it rings to me of grandstanding/intimidation more than a real legal threat. Perhaps she should have considered that she'd have to defend her claim before she aired it all publicly? She made the choice to put herself in this position by going public. Because he's a public person, he would have to prove that the statements are false. Right now, I think that he's in pretty good shape to do that. The only other known witness to what happened is on Kavanaugh's side. In contrast, the accuser has no corroborating evidence, plus a host of credibility issues listed above. As other evidence surfaces (if it surfaces), the calculus will change, but right now, it looks like Kavanaugh has the upper hand when it comes to the evidence. I doubt that he pursues the claim, however. There isn't much for him to gain. She didn't "go public" until her story got leaked, but w/e. TIL that if you rape a girl with your buddy and then she testifies it happened snd you both testify it didn't, that "proves" it didn't happen in a court of law. She went public as soon as she sent her letter to Feinstein. She knew exactly what she was doing and what was almost certain to happen.
I hate to break it to you, but evidence is evidence. What the buddy has to say is evidence just as her testimony is evidence and Kavanaugh's testimony is evidence. At any trial, the jury is tasked with weighing the credibility of each witness and is instructed that they can believe or disregard any and all testimony from any given witness. If this woman presented her story in court without any corroborating evidence and with all of her credibility red flags, she would get annihilated going up against Kavanaugh, who by every other account, is a total boy scout. Like I said yesterday, victim testimony never holds up on its own. If it's not corroborated, and if there is any dirt on the victim, the victim is fucked. This is just how it is.
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On September 19 2018 03:38 Simberto wrote: And of course, the fact that making live as horrible as possible for people who accuse powerful men of sexual abuse until their statements are totally and objectively proven without any remaining doubt (Which, lets be honest, will never happen, because powerful men, and especially powerful republican men, always have ways to spread additional doubt. See Hillary Email investigation) has the totally unwanted sideeffect of discouraging any additional allegations, no matter their merit, is a totally unintentional and completely unavoidable sideeffect.
Lets be honest here. If you were sexually abused by someone powerful, the smart way of dealing with that is keeping it silent, and possibly politely asking for hush money. Going public is gonna haunt you forever, and has high chances of ruining your life. That is not a good status quo to have.
You can't just consider this from the (alleged) rape victim's perspective. Accusations of rape (or attempted rape) are deadly serious. False accusations ruin careers.
Also, you may want to bring yourself current on the Hillary email investigation. I suspect that people at the FBI are going to get burned for sweeping this one under the rug:
A Chinese-owned company operating in the Washington, D.C., area hacked Hillary Clinton’s private server throughout her term as secretary of state and obtained nearly all her emails, two sources briefed on the matter told The Daily Caller News Foundation.
The Chinese firm obtained Clinton’s emails in real time as she sent and received communications and documents through her personal server, according to the sources, who said the hacking was conducted as part of an intelligence operation.
The Chinese wrote code that was embedded in the server, which was kept in Clinton’s residence in upstate New York. The code generated an instant “courtesy copy” for nearly all of her emails and forwarded them to the Chinese company, according to the sources.
The Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG) found that virtually all of Clinton’s emails were sent to a “foreign entity,” Rep. Louie Gohmert, a Texas Republican, said at a July 12 House Committee on the Judiciary hearing. He did not reveal the entity’s identity, but said it was unrelated to Russia.
Two officials with the ICIG, investigator Frank Rucker and attorney Janette McMillan, met repeatedly with FBI officials to warn them of the Chinese intrusion, according to a former intelligence officer with expertise in cybersecurity issues, who was briefed on the matter. He spoke anonymously, as he was not authorized to publicly address the Chinese’s role with Clinton’s server.
Among those FBI officials was Peter Strzok, who was then the bureau’s top counterintelligence official. Strzok was fired this month following the discovery he sent anti-Trump texts to his mistress and co-worker, Lisa Page. Strzok didn’t act on the information the ICIG provided him, according to Gohmert.
Gohmert mentioned in the Judiciary Committee hearing that ICIG officials told Strzok and three other top FBI officials that they found an “anomaly” on Clinton’s server.
The former intelligence officer TheDCNF spoke with said the ICIG “discovered the anomaly pretty early in 2015.”
“When [the ICIG] did a very deep dive, they found in the actual metadata — the data which is at the header and footer of all the emails — that a copy, a ‘courtesy copy,’ was being sent to a third party and that third party was a known Chinese public company that was involved in collecting intelligence for China,” the former intelligence officer told TheDCNF.
“The [the ICIG] believe that there was some level of phishing. But once they got into the server something was embedded,” he said. “The Chinese are notorious for embedding little surprises like this.”
The intelligence officer declined to name the Chinese company.
“We do know the name of the company. There are indications there are other ‘cutouts’ that were involved. I would be in a lot of trouble if I gave you the name,” he told TheDCNF.
A government staff official who’s been briefed on the ICIG’s findings told TheDCNF that the Chinese state-owned firm linked to the hacking operates in Washington’s northern Virginia suburbs. The source was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
The company that penetrated Clinton’s server was not a technology firm and it served as a “front group” for the Chinese government, the source told TheDCNF.
The Fairfax and Loudoun county governments told TheDCNF that 13 state-owned Chinese companies operate in the area. Of those, three were not technologically oriented.
Fairfax County Economic Development Authority communications manager Seth Livingston told TheDCNF that all of the nine firms operating in his county were there in 2009 when Clinton began as secretary of state.
“Our Asian folks believe that all of the companies have been around and known to us since that time period,” he said in an email.
“This is the most combed over subject in modern American political history,” Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill told TheDCNF. “The FBI spent thousands of hours investigating, and found no evidence of intrusion. That’s a fact.”
“But in an age where facts are alternative and truth isn’t truth, it’s no surprise that an outlet like the Daily Caller would try to distract us from very real and very immediate threats to our democracy brought by the man occupying the White House,” he continued.
Department of State Inspector General Steven A. Linick and then-ICIG I. Charles McCullough III scrutinized Clinton’s server in 2015. McCullough told Congress in July 2015 that her emails contained classified material.
“IC IG was involved in the classification review of certain information drawn from the private email server,” an agency spokeswoman told TheDCNF. She declined to comment further.
The two IGs asked the Department of Justice to investigate whether the classified information was compromised, according to a July 23, 2015, New York Times report based on unnamed senior government officials.
The FBI issued a referral to the Justice Department in July 2015. The bureau warned that classified information may have been disclosed to a foreign power or to one of its agents.
“FBIHQ, Counterespionage Section, is opening a full investigation based on specific articulated facts provided by an 811 referral from the Inspector General of the Intelligence Community, dated July 6, 2015 regarding the potential compromise of classified information,” a July 10, 2015, FBI memo stated.
An 811 referral informs the FBI of classified information that was potentially released to a foreign power or agent of a foreign power.
“This investigation is also designated a Sensitive Investigative Matter (SIM) due to a connection to a current public official, political appointee or candidate,” the memo stated.
Then-FBI Deputy Director Mark F. Giuliano sent a follow-up memo on July 21, 2015, to President Barack Obama’s deputy attorney general, Sally Yates, about two conversations he had with her about the criminal referral.
“On 13 July 2015 and 20 July 2015, I verbally advised you of a Section 811(c) referral from the Inspector General of the Intelligence Community received by the FBI on 06 July 2015. The referral addressed the mishandling of classified information on the personal e-mail account and electronic media of a former high-level us Government official,” according to the FBI memo, which was hand delivered to Yates.
Justice Department spokesman Devin M. O’Malley declined to comment on this story.
Former FBI Director James Comey acknowledged in his recent book, “A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies, and Leadership,” that the FBI was conducting a criminal investigation into Clinton’s conduct.
London Center for Policy Research’s vice president of operations, retired Col. Anthony Shaffer, told TheDCNF that Clinton’s server was vulnerable to hacking.
“Look, there’s evidence based on the complete lack of security hygiene on the server. Fourteen-year-old hackers from Canada could have probably hacked into her server and left very little trace,” Shaffer said. “Any sophisticated organization is going to be able to essentially get in and then clean up their presence.”
And a former consultant to the U.S. trade representative, Claude Barfield, told TheDCNF: “The Chinese were in the process of really gaining technological competence in 2009 to 2010. This begins to really take off in the early years of the Obama administration. The Obama administration was kind of late and there was this slow reaction about how sophisticated the Chinese were.”
EDITOR’S NOTE:
The FBI released a statement saying they had “not found any evidence” of an intrusion of Clinton’s server.
The statement does not address a central aspect of TheDCNF’s reporting, which was that the ICIG briefed top bureau officials on three separate occasions to warn the FBI of an “anomaly” they found 30,000 in-bound and outgoing emails. Former Director of the FBI James Comey himself conceded in July 2016 that while the Bureau assessed the server could have been exploited, “given the nature of the system and of the actors potentially involved, we assess that we would be unlikely to see such direct evidence.”
“It is possible that hostile actors gained access to Secretary Clinton’s personal email account,” Comey concluded.
According to two independent sources, ICIG found such evidence and briefed the FBI on it three times.
After releasing the statement, the FBI refused to confirm or deny to TheDCNF that such briefings ever happened.
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On September 19 2018 03:40 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2018 03:33 ChristianS wrote:On September 19 2018 03:25 xDaunt wrote:On September 19 2018 03:08 ChristianS wrote: Yes, only a fake sexual assault victim would be scared by the prospect of being grilled by a bunch of hostile Senators about their alleged sexual assault. Real sexual assault victims would love to have that opportunity.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't he have to prove it didn't happen to win a defamation suit? Care to share how you think he could manage that? Because it rings to me of grandstanding/intimidation more than a real legal threat. Perhaps she should have considered that she'd have to defend her claim before she aired it all publicly? She made the choice to put herself in this position by going public. Because he's a public person, he would have to prove that the statements are false. Right now, I think that he's in pretty good shape to do that. The only other known witness to what happened is on Kavanaugh's side. In contrast, the accuser has no corroborating evidence, plus a host of credibility issues listed above. As other evidence surfaces (if it surfaces), the calculus will change, but right now, it looks like Kavanaugh has the upper hand when it comes to the evidence. I doubt that he pursues the claim, however. There isn't much for him to gain. She didn't "go public" until her story got leaked, but w/e. TIL that if you rape a girl with your buddy and then she testifies it happened snd you both testify it didn't, that "proves" it didn't happen in a court of law. She went public as soon as she sent her letter to Feinstein. She knew exactly what she was doing and what was almost certain to happen. I hate to break it to you, but evidence is evidence. What the buddy has to say is evidence just as her testimony is evidence and Kavanaugh's testimony is evidence. At any trial, the jury is tasked with weighing the credibility of each witness and is instructed that they can believe or disregard any and all testimony from any given witness. If this woman presented her story in court without any corroborating evidence and with all of her credibility red flags, she would get annihilated going up against Kavanaugh, who by every other account, is a total boy scout. Like I said yesterday, victim testimony never holds up on its own. If it's not corroborated, and if there is any dirt on the victim, the victim is fucked. This is just how it is. The words "go public" to you apparently mean sending a private letter the contents of which urge the recipient to keep you anonymous. That's a funny understanding of the word "public" you have.
Yeah, I just don't buy that testimony by your friend who was complicit in the alleged crime is worth much. Gotta be right up there with your mom testifying "he would never do this, I raised him better than that." Don't get me wrong, I don't think the current evidence is anywhere close to proving beyond a reasonable doubt that he did it. But it's also ridiculous to think it proves the opposite, purely on the strength of "he and his buddy both say it didn't happen"
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