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On April 19 2017 23:30 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2017 23:25 KwarK wrote:On April 19 2017 22:41 LightSpectra wrote:
Well good to hear that Trump is ok with the Iran deal now, now if whoever convinced him of that could also do the same for North Korea and Syra that'd be fantastic. North Korea and Iran couldn't be two more dissimilar situations. They're actually not quite so different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_FrameworkThe U.S. negotiated a deal with NK in 1994, where they would freeze their research into nuclear power/weapons in exchange for light water reactors. But it was terminated by George W. Bush.
You left out the part where many parties determined that NK breached the agreement and we still developing nukes.
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On April 19 2017 23:36 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2017 23:30 LightSpectra wrote:On April 19 2017 23:25 KwarK wrote:On April 19 2017 22:41 LightSpectra wrote:
Well good to hear that Trump is ok with the Iran deal now, now if whoever convinced him of that could also do the same for North Korea and Syra that'd be fantastic. North Korea and Iran couldn't be two more dissimilar situations. They're actually not quite so different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_FrameworkThe U.S. negotiated a deal with NK in 1994, where they would freeze their research into nuclear power/weapons in exchange for light water reactors. But it was terminated by George W. Bush. You left out the part where many parties determined that NK breached the agreement and we still developing nukes.
That's a bit of an oversimplification, but ok.
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United States44300 Posts
On April 19 2017 23:30 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2017 23:25 KwarK wrote:On April 19 2017 22:41 LightSpectra wrote:
Well good to hear that Trump is ok with the Iran deal now, now if whoever convinced him of that could also do the same for North Korea and Syra that'd be fantastic. North Korea and Iran couldn't be two more dissimilar situations. They're actually not quite so different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_FrameworkThe U.S. negotiated a deal with NK in 1994, where they would freeze their research into nuclear power/weapons in exchange for light water reactors. But it was terminated by George W. Bush. Show nested quote +On April 19 2017 23:29 Plansix wrote:On April 19 2017 23:25 KwarK wrote:On April 19 2017 22:41 LightSpectra wrote:
Well good to hear that Trump is ok with the Iran deal now, now if whoever convinced him of that could also do the same for North Korea and Syra that'd be fantastic. North Korea and Iran couldn't be two more dissimilar situations. The same with Syria. That civil war rose up all on its own. Syria's a much different case, granted. But if the doves can win over Trump on Iran and NK, it's possible they can do the same on Syria.
Iran has always been an active member of the international community and has a great many interests beyond retaining the power of the elites. Furthermore Iran has a civilian population that can effectively lobby their government for some change, even if they don't have a full democracy. The Iranian government is susceptible to pressure from without and within and actually desires good relations. If they were to pointlessly blow up the deal by returning to their nuclear program and have the nuclear powers sanction the shit out of them (as specified in the deal) their economy would implode and their people, who are used to a decent standard of living and access to consumer goods, would fuck shit up.
In contrast North Korea has no real interest or need for international trade. It has limited trade with China for the purpose of obtaining some foreign currency supplies but the North Korean people aren't going to freak out if they're no longer able to buy iphones due to an embargo. Nor are their industries built on access to foreign markets or their economy built on exports. Likewise the North Korean people have no political expression, the only interest of the North Korean government is the continuation of the North Korean government. Nuclear weapons guarantee that. There is nothing we can offer them to not make a deterrent because there is nothing they want as much as they want a deterrent.
Our quarrel with Iran was over surface issues. We didn't like that they were a powerful theocratic oil state that was trying to become a regional power. And they didn't like the US for a number of also pretty legitimate reasons. But in the post-Iraq world of limited US ability to intervene directly in the Middle East we were able to find conditions under which we could coexist well enough. The quarrel with NK is over fundamental issues. The US is a constant threat to the very existence of NK and NK is a constant affront to the dignity of every other nation for every day it endures.
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Looks like Trump may finally be coming through on his promise to do some swamp draining 
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Kim Jong-un is not a madman; he wants to stay in power, and to do that he needs three things: (1) Assurance that the U.S. won't bomb him. (2) Enough money to continually bribe his military officers and other influential people in the NK government. (3) Just enough infrastructure that there isn't a total economic breakdown from food riots and power shortages.
The U.S. can provide all three of those things. We just can't give all three simultaneously without looking weak, hence why Donald Trump is trying to do the reverse by cutting off all three simultaneously with China's permission.
But that's really playing with fire.
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United States44300 Posts
On April 19 2017 23:57 LightSpectra wrote:
Kim Jong-un is not a madman; he wants to stay in power, and to do that he needs three things: (1) Assurance that the U.S. won't bomb him. (2) Enough money to continually bribe his military officers and other influential people in the NK government. (3) Just enough infrastructure that there isn't a total economic breakdown from food riots and power shortages.
The U.S. can provide all three of those things. We just can't give all three simultaneously without looking weak, hence why Donald Trump is trying to do the reverse by cutting off all three simultaneously with China's permission.
But that's really playing with fire.
The only assurance that the US won't bomb him that he will accept is MAD potential. And that is an unacceptable development for the nuclear community.
This is a fundamental and unavoidable conflict of interests. He already has a guarantee of Chinese defence against any attack. He could very easily get Chinese troops on the DMZ in exchange for stopping his nuclear program. If you think he'll accept a pinky promise that the US won't attack you're being intentionally ignorant. North Korea already has a great many guarantees, they don't want guarantees, they want an ICBM with a nuclear warhead.
Think about this for a second. North Korea already has guarantees of autonomy in the form of
- A giant conventional military.
- An ironclad defence treaty with the second most powerful power in the world, a regional superpower with a formidable nuclear deterrent of its own.
- The largest cities of its neighbour held hostage in the case of any conflict.
- Over 60 years of ceasefire.
- No will to go to war with China in the US.
- A Chinese veto in the UN.
- Having the status quo be a key geopolitical interest of rival superpowers to the US (Russia and China) due to them not wanting a unified Korea as an American proxy on their border.
Nothing Trump can say is going to suddenly tip the balance from them feeling unsafe, in spite of all of the above, to feeling safe.
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China could put an end to this mess any second they want by a full embargo against NK, which would shut down their economy and lead to immediate riots. (We can already see that in action right now from the coal embargo.) But that would be really costly to China and dangerous, since they don't particularly want ten million refugees flooding across the border, or Kim to think "well I'm doomed anyway, might as well see some fireworks".
Let's be clear here, NK isn't developing nuclear ICBMs to threaten America -- all the artillery pointed at Seoul is enough of a threat really -- they're developing ICBMs in order to get sovereignty back from China.
So what Trump's doing right now, which is trying to get China to hit the brakes, is the smartest move if he wants to not look weak. There's a much better option on the table, but it would forever make Trump look like Neville Chamberlain, so he's probably not going to do that.
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United States44300 Posts
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche.
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Looks like O'Reilly is out.
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On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche.
Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China?
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United States44300 Posts
On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China?
Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right?
North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen.
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On April 20 2017 00:32 xDaunt wrote:
Looks like O'Reilly is out.
America slowly returning to Great!
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On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right? North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen.
It all ends up coming back to "no, you don't get it. NK is really, really, really, REALLY messed up"
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United States44300 Posts
On April 20 2017 00:44 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right? North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen. It all ends up coming back to "no, you don't get it. NK is really, really, really, REALLY messed up"
I feel like when I wrote that "autarky is a key component of Juche" LightSpectra immediately looked up both words.
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On April 20 2017 00:46 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:44 Mohdoo wrote:On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right? North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen. It all ends up coming back to "no, you don't get it. NK is really, really, really, REALLY messed up" I feel like when I wrote that "autarky is a key component of Juche" LightSpectra immediately looked up both words.
I looked up Juche. But I wouldn't claim to know the first thing about NK except that it is seriously fucked up.
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On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right?
Er, so there's some famine and some power shortages right now and in the past, ergo it's the same as if their entire economy totally collapsed?
North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen.
Yes, autarky is a key part of their state ideology. But in practice NK is not as independent as they would like to be.
e.g.: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/07/22/north-koreas-very-bad-year-and-chinas-role-in-it/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/asia/china-north-korea-trade-coal-nuclear.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/02/17/north-korea-trade-china-donald-trump/98045742/
On April 20 2017 00:46 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:44 Mohdoo wrote:On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right? North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen. It all ends up coming back to "no, you don't get it. NK is really, really, really, REALLY messed up" I feel like when I wrote that "autarky is a key component of Juche" LightSpectra immediately looked up both words.
I'm actually quite familiar with both concepts, thanks. Hope you're not a victim of the "anybody who doesn't agree with me is just ignorant" complex.
I mean it'd be like saying "The USSR's stage ideology was communism, therefore they had a post-scarcity, classless, stateless society."
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Never under estimate the likelihood that a nation like North Korea has bought into their own bullshit. They are an isolated people and even their leadership has a limited understand of political realities. Assuming they will act rationally is a big assumption.
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On April 20 2017 01:04 Plansix wrote:
Never under estimate the likelihood that a nation like North Korea has bought into their own bullshit. They are an isolated people and even their leadership has a limited understand of political realities. Assuming they will act rationally is a big assumption.
Fair point, but I see no good options beyond assuming they are rational and will act rationally to attain their goals, which has been true for just about their entire history.
If Kim or his successors gets a mental illness that leads to psychosis, we're all fucked. But that's also true of the leaders of every nuclear-equipped state (to my knowledge at least).
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United States44300 Posts
On April 20 2017 00:57 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right? Er, so there's some famine and some power shortages right now and in the past, ergo it's the same as if their entire economy totally collapsed? Show nested quote +North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen. Yes, autarky is a key part of their state ideology. But in practice NK is not as independent as they would like to be. e.g.: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/07/22/north-koreas-very-bad-year-and-chinas-role-in-it/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/asia/china-north-korea-trade-coal-nuclear.htmlhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/02/17/north-korea-trade-china-donald-trump/98045742/Show nested quote +On April 20 2017 00:46 KwarK wrote:On April 20 2017 00:44 Mohdoo wrote:On April 20 2017 00:39 KwarK wrote:On April 20 2017 00:32 LightSpectra wrote:On April 20 2017 00:29 KwarK wrote:
nonsense, autarky is a key component of Juche. Yeah, sure, in theory, but we're talking about in practice. Are you denying that NK's economy would shut down if cut off from China? Wouldn't be any worse than the 90s. Honestly the only way I can justify anyone saying any of the things you're saying is if you literally have no understanding of North Korea and it's history. You're aware that North Korea at one point suffered a mass famine without popular uprising or revolt, right? North Korea is the single least dependent nation on international trade in the world due to autarky being a key part of the state religion and ideology. It is also the single nation least exposed to popular revolt due to 60+ years of Stalinism, total control over information, a ruthlessly pacified population and an overwhelmingly powerful military. And even if the above were not sufficient evidence of the theoretical unlikeliness of a revolt, literally the worst economic collapse possible has already happened in North Korea and no revolt happened. It won't happen. It can't happen. And all the conditions under which you said it would happen have already been met and it didn't happen. It all ends up coming back to "no, you don't get it. NK is really, really, really, REALLY messed up" I feel like when I wrote that "autarky is a key component of Juche" LightSpectra immediately looked up both words. I'm actually quite familiar with both concepts, thanks. Hope you're not a victim of the "anybody who doesn't agree with me is just ignorant" complex. I mean it'd be like saying "The USSR's stage ideology was communism, therefore they had a post-scarcity, classless, stateless society."
Some famine? Like one in twenty North Koreans died in the famine. Are you fucking kidding me right now?
And I never said they had no trade, I said they were the single least dependent upon trade nation in the world. And they are. By a long way. Trade is a bonus to them, not a lifeline.
You were arguing that North Korea is a nation dependent upon foreign trade to survive and that it has core national interests that are controlled by other nations leaving it vulnerable to leverage. If you think any part of that is compatible with Juche then you need to go read what it is again. I'm not saying that you're ignorant because you disagree with me. I'm saying you're ignorant because the things you are saying are so incredibly wrong that they could only be adequately explained as ignorance or deliberate misinformation.
But again, and I'll spell it out for you slowly this time. The North Korean government is so secure, so stable and so removed from the concerns of the populace that they could survive the people not having food. Your argument appears to be that if the Korean coal mines no longer have access to the Chinese market then North Korea will fall. That would only possibly be make sense if the coal export industry was a far more important component of the Korean economy than the having food industry, and even then, North Korea survived the inability to feed its people, there is no reason to believe it wouldn't survive the inability to export coal.
A lack of government access to export Yuan is not more disruptive to the lifestyles of the Korean people than a lack of food. If you don't have any food you die. If your government doesn't have any yuan then they can't buy Chinese goods. If you didn't rise up and overthrow them just because you were dying you're not going to rise up and overthrow them just because the Dear Leader's Steam account subscription is about to lapse.
North Korea is seeking an independent nuclear deterrent because an independent nuclear deterrent is a necessary component of their state ideology. There is absolutely no reassurance that could come from China, the US, Russia, Japan or SK that would be sufficient to deter them from that goal. We know this because every reassurance possible has already been made and it did not deter them from that goal.
You say you understand Juche. Try and understand this. Without a nuclear weapon capable of reaching any nation on earth there can be no true jawi.
To go back to the original point. There is literally no viable comparison between the Iranian diplomatic situation and the North Korean one. There is no overlap between the two situations.
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EPT
