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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16169 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-06 21:05:12
April 06 2017 21:04 GMT
#145621
On April 07 2017 06:01 Sermokala wrote:
Not to mention the thousand pound elephant in the region that is isreal. If america is signaling displeasure about chemical weapons isreal already has air strikes lined up.

ISIS isn't going anywhere until the kurdish question is solved.

Kurdistan should be made in their traditional region (Northwestern Syria, I think) in exchange for helping out the US. After the chemical attack, Assad's 99% going to be deposed, just like we did with Saddam
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
April 06 2017 21:05 GMT
#145622
A massive air campaign in Syria would certainly take attention away from the Russia investigation . Didn't Clinton bomb Yugoslavia to distract from his scandal?
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 06 2017 21:05 GMT
#145623
On April 07 2017 06:01 Sermokala wrote:
Not to mention the thousand pound elephant in the region that is isreal. If america is signaling displeasure about chemical weapons isreal already has air strikes lined up.

ISIS isn't going anywhere until the kurdish question is solved.

Better hope that US-Israel relationship is as cozy as ever for that though. Last I heard the Trump euphoria seems to have dissipated in that part of the world as well.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 06 2017 21:06 GMT
#145624
On April 07 2017 06:05 Doodsmack wrote:
A massive air campaign in Syria would certainly take attention away from the Russia investigation . Didn't Clinton bomb Yugoslavia to distract from his scandal?

Well everyone cared about the Clinton scandal and no one except Russia cared about Yugoslavia so it sounds like it failed to do the job.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 06 2017 21:09 GMT
#145625
On April 07 2017 06:04 plasmidghost wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2017 06:01 Sermokala wrote:
Not to mention the thousand pound elephant in the region that is isreal. If america is signaling displeasure about chemical weapons isreal already has air strikes lined up.

ISIS isn't going anywhere until the kurdish question is solved.

Kurdistan should be made in their traditional region (Northwestern Syria, I think) in exchange for helping out the US. After the chemical attack, Assad's 99% going to be deposed, just like we did with Saddam

it's unlikely assad is going ot be deposed; if we didn't do it after the previous time chemical weapons were used, it's unlikely it will be done this time. Trump may be more gung ho, but getting the support to send in the necessary ground troops to depose him is improbable.
If assad leaves, it's more likely to be as part of a negotiated settlement wherein he retires someplace safe after the war is over.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16169 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-06 21:15:56
April 06 2017 21:15 GMT
#145626
I also hear that Democrats are calling on Trump to come to Congress to get approval for the US to bomb Assad forces in Syria, which, given that we've been bombing them, Yemen, and other countries for years without congressional approval, makes me think won't happen. Should he, though? Without a doubt

(CNN)As President Donald Trump considers a military response to the Syrian regime's chemical weapons attack, Democrats are warning the President that he needs to come to Congress first.

Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Trump would need a war authorization to bomb Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Like the Obama administration, the Trump administration has launched airstrikes against ISIS using legal justification from the 2001 war authorization that passed after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. But that would not cover Assad, Cardin argued.
"If we decide to do military in Syria, he really needs to come to Congress," Cardin said. "In regards to an attack against the Assad government, there is no authorization."
Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat who has pushed for a war authorization against ISIS, also argued Trump would not have the authority to attack the Assad regime.
"Dropping bombs inside a civil war was a bad idea in 2013, it's a worse idea in 2017," Murphy said. "It will make some Americans feel better, but it will make that battle space more chaotic and end up with more people getting killed, not less. And again, he doesn't have the authorization from Congress to do this."
Rep. Jackie Speier, a Democratic member of the House Armed Services Committee, told CNN's Erin Burnett that Congress should evaluate and decide on a war in Syria before Trump moved in on his own.
"I think if we are going to put boots on the ground, we have to authorize the use of force," Speier said. "That should be something debated by the Armed Services Committee and by the full House. We must engage in wars first by evaluating them and Congress taking action, not by allowing the President to act independently, which has been going on now for two decades."
When the Assad regime violated President Barack Obama's "red line" in 2013 with a chemical attack, the Obama administration prepared to strike Assad, before the President decided to go to Congress for authorization first.
Congress failed to pass the authorization and the US did not strike Assad, which many Republicans -- including Trump -- say was a decision that emboldened the Syrian leader to take further heinous actions like this week's chemical attack. Republican Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham on Thursday called for grounding Assad's air force in response to this week's attack.
Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, said in the short-term, the President has the authority to take action without getting congressional approval first.
"The prudent course of action would be for him to go to Congress and consult, discuss privately what he is going to do," Corker said. "I'm sure they will take that course of action, or at least I hope they would. So, they have the authority without that, but my sense is that they will come to us."
When Obama tried to get authorization to strike Assad, Republicans were reluctant to get on board to vote for it, Cardin said.
This time, he added, there could be an easier path, especially if it's tailored specifically to respond to the chemical attack.
"Certainly if it's well tailored toward the chemical weapons violations, you might be able to do it," he said.
It's not just Democrats who want Trump to come to Congress. Sen. Rand Paul, known for his libertarian ideology, told Fox News Radio, "Short of Congress voting on it, I'm opposed to illegal and unconstitutional wars."
"The first thing we ought to do is probably obey the Constitution," Paul said on "Kilmeade and Friends."
Rand Paul: Military action in Syria needs Congressional approval
At the same time, the situation on the ground in Syria is more complicated for Trump now than it was back in 2013, as Russia has gotten involved militarily to bolster the Assad regime.
Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, said he was most concerned about a large US ground force deploying to Syria, but noted that Russia makes even trying to ground Syria's air force difficult.
"It gets complicated because it's not only Assad's air force, it's Russia's air force," King said.

www.cnn.com
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 06 2017 21:16 GMT
#145627
If he does it unilaterally then the fallout will be his fault.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
April 06 2017 21:21 GMT
#145628
And if he does nothing, then he's showing weakness after talking tough .
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 06 2017 21:22 GMT
#145629
I'm waiting for the victory he will deliver to America. Because, you know, we don't win anymore. We need someone to fix that for us.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 06 2017 21:22 GMT
#145630
plasmid -> to some extent the current bombings in various places do have congressional approval; not a declaration of war, but there is approval under various other congressional passed laws (to an extent, some of it is kinda fuzzy).
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
April 06 2017 21:22 GMT
#145631
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio said Wednesday that he doesn't think it's a coincidence that a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria occurred shortly after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad could remain in power.

"In this case now, we have very limited options and look, it's concerning that the secretary of state, 72 hours ago or a week ago, last Friday, said that the future's up to the people in Syria on what happens with Assad. In essence almost nodding to the idea that Assad was gonna get to stay in some capacity," Rubio said on the show "AM Tampa Bay."

...

Other lawmakers, such as fellow Republican Sen. John McCain, have also rebuked Tillerson and the Trump administration. McCain said on CNN's "New Day" that he was sure that the Assad regime was "encouraged to know that the United States is withdrawing" from the conflict.


CNN
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 06 2017 21:23 GMT
#145632
We are getting into the dangerous part of the Trump presidency. We cannot attack Assad unless congress approves it, but Trump might order it. Then we get to see if the military is up to defending the Constitution by saying “we can’t.”
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16169 Posts
April 06 2017 21:25 GMT
#145633
Can the US even afford to go to war? We have so much crumbling infrastructure that Trump proposed to spend a trillion dollars on fixing, if we go to war, there's no way anything near what he proposed will get done
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16169 Posts
April 06 2017 21:29 GMT
#145634
Pretty shitty news for the Palestinians, Trump said he could live with a one-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which is going to give Israel a lot of leeway to further repress the Palestinians since the US will basically turn a blind eye
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 06 2017 21:29 GMT
#145635
plansix -> legally, Trump could probably order an attack or two fine without congressional approval (not completely sure on that)

plasmid -> yes, the US can afford ot go to war (from an economic standpoint). it'll hurt economically, depending on the scale of the war and post-war efforts. I can give oyu some vague rough numbers if you want.
it might well derail efforts to get an infrastructure bill done though.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 06 2017 21:30 GMT
#145636
On April 07 2017 06:25 plasmidghost wrote:
Can the US even afford to go to war? We have so much crumbling infrastructure that Trump proposed to spend a trillion dollars on fixing, if we go to war, there's no way anything near what he proposed will get done

It's not too expensive in the moment to bomb-n'-leave, and let others take care of the problems. It will bite you in the ass in the future, but for the moment, you get by fine.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 06 2017 21:33 GMT
#145637
On April 07 2017 06:25 plasmidghost wrote:
Can the US even afford to go to war? We have so much crumbling infrastructure that Trump proposed to spend a trillion dollars on fixing, if we go to war, there's no way anything near what he proposed will get done

Of course we can. Can we afford to go to war without raising taxes? No. Are we talking about war right now? Not really. Just a missile strikes. But Congress still needs to approve that.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16169 Posts
April 06 2017 21:34 GMT
#145638
On April 07 2017 06:30 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2017 06:25 plasmidghost wrote:
Can the US even afford to go to war? We have so much crumbling infrastructure that Trump proposed to spend a trillion dollars on fixing, if we go to war, there's no way anything near what he proposed will get done

It's not too expensive in the moment to bomb-n'-leave, and let others take care of the problems. It will bite you in the ass in the future, but for the moment, you get by fine.

We could always stay and stabilize the country before leaving, but I highly doubt that will happen, American history has shown that policy is bomb first, then when an al-Qaeda/ISIS/whatever pops up in that region, bomb it again
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 06 2017 21:37 GMT
#145639
On April 07 2017 06:29 zlefin wrote:
plansix -> legally, Trump could probably order an attack or two fine without congressional approval (not completely sure on that)

plasmid -> yes, the US can afford ot go to war (from an economic standpoint). it'll hurt economically, depending on the scale of the war and post-war efforts. I can give oyu some vague rough numbers if you want.
it might well derail efforts to get an infrastructure bill done though.

It has been a very long time since congress has authorized any additional military actions. Obama still had to operate under the authorization that allowed us to go to the Iraq war for a lot of the stuff dealing with ISIS. There is no authorization for the military to attack the Syrian Government. That is why Obama had to ask when Assad crossed the Red Line way back when.

He can order it and it might happen, but all the experts I have been hearing has been saying any attack on Assad without congressional approval is legal questionable at best.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 06 2017 21:37 GMT
#145640
On April 07 2017 06:34 plasmidghost wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2017 06:30 LegalLord wrote:
On April 07 2017 06:25 plasmidghost wrote:
Can the US even afford to go to war? We have so much crumbling infrastructure that Trump proposed to spend a trillion dollars on fixing, if we go to war, there's no way anything near what he proposed will get done

It's not too expensive in the moment to bomb-n'-leave, and let others take care of the problems. It will bite you in the ass in the future, but for the moment, you get by fine.

We could always stay and stabilize the country before leaving, but I highly doubt that will happen, American history has shown that policy is bomb first, then when an al-Qaeda/ISIS/whatever pops up in that region, bomb it again

staying to stabilize vastly increases the costs both in money and lives. it's also very very difficult to make a place stable.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
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