• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 07:48
CET 13:48
KST 21:48
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Rongyi Cup S3 - Preview & Info3herO wins SC2 All-Star Invitational14SC2 All-Star Invitational: Tournament Preview5RSL Revival - 2025 Season Finals Preview8RSL Season 3 - Playoffs Preview0
Community News
Weekly Cups (Jan 19-25): Bunny, Trigger, MaxPax win3Weekly Cups (Jan 12-18): herO, MaxPax, Solar win0BSL Season 2025 - Full Overview and Conclusion8Weekly Cups (Jan 5-11): Clem wins big offline, Trigger upsets4$21,000 Rongyi Cup Season 3 announced (Jan 22-Feb 7)35
StarCraft 2
General
Weekly Cups (Jan 19-25): Bunny, Trigger, MaxPax win StarCraft 2 not at the Esports World Cup 2026 Oliveira Would Have Returned If EWC Continued herO wins SC2 All-Star Invitational PhD study /w SC2 - help with a survey!
Tourneys
$21,000 Rongyi Cup Season 3 announced (Jan 22-Feb 7) OSC Season 13 World Championship $70 Prize Pool Ladder Legends Academy Weekly Open! SC2 All-Star Invitational: Jan 17-18 Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
[A] Starcraft Sound Mod
External Content
Mutation # 510 Safety Violation Mutation # 509 Doomsday Report Mutation # 508 Violent Night Mutation # 507 Well Trained
Brood War
General
[ASL21] Potential Map Candidates BW General Discussion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Which foreign pros are considered the best? Gypsy to Korea
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Small VOD Thread 2.0 Azhi's Colosseum - Season 2 [BSL21] Non-Korean Championship - Starts Jan 10
Strategy
Current Meta Simple Questions, Simple Answers Soma's 9 hatch build from ASL Game 2 Game Theory for Starcraft
Other Games
General Games
Battle Aces/David Kim RTS Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Beyond All Reason Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Provigil(modafinil) pills Cape Town+27 81 850 2816
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread US Politics Mega-thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread YouTube Thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The herO Fan Club! The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread [Manga] One Piece
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
How Esports Advertising Shap…
TrAiDoS
My 2025 Magic: The Gathering…
DARKING
Life Update and thoughts.
FuDDx
How do archons sleep?
8882
James Bond movies ranking - pa…
Topin
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2257 users

US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5942

Forum Index > Closed
Post a Reply
Prev 1 5940 5941 5942 5943 5944 10093 Next
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 11:21:16
November 06 2016 11:20 GMT
#118821
On November 06 2016 19:45 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 19:37 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:01 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:48 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm especially amused by things like "We'll see who's right in two days"... No, we won't. Who wins Florida in the end doesn't really inform us on who had the right model regarding who has the better chances of winning Florida... Believe it or not, it's possible for an event that has 47% chance of happening to happen. That tends to happen 47% of the time.

That might be why the HP article ends up like this:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax. She’s got this.


Yeah but that's what I'm criticizing. The assumption made there is that 538's model is good when Trump wins Florida, and bad when he doesn't. That's not necessarily true at all.

Read again. He says that if Silver is right about Florida it's just a good guess and lucky adjustments.

In my book that means that for him, T winning Florida doesn't make a difference because 538 is twisting the number it uses.


I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.

Speaking in absolutes, you can't say much. But let's take it to extremes: let's say I predict Florida goes to Trump with 95% likelihood, and your model predicts the inverse. Trump wins Florida. Do you agree that we can update our degree of belief in whose model is better based on this?

The problem is that Nebuchad IS talking in absolute terms. Even if a model predicts an event at 99,9% and another at 0,1% and the event happens, there is no way to prove that the second model was not the correct one, and that the one chance over a thousand happened that time. It's just terribly unlikely, and when you talk statistics you talk about likeliness.

My main problem is that the HP guy has never said that "we will see who was right" and so i don't know why we are having this argument in the first place.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12383 Posts
November 06 2016 11:22 GMT
#118822
On November 06 2016 19:45 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 19:37 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:01 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:48 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm especially amused by things like "We'll see who's right in two days"... No, we won't. Who wins Florida in the end doesn't really inform us on who had the right model regarding who has the better chances of winning Florida... Believe it or not, it's possible for an event that has 47% chance of happening to happen. That tends to happen 47% of the time.

That might be why the HP article ends up like this:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax. She’s got this.


Yeah but that's what I'm criticizing. The assumption made there is that 538's model is good when Trump wins Florida, and bad when he doesn't. That's not necessarily true at all.

Read again. He says that if Silver is right about Florida it's just a good guess and lucky adjustments.

In my book that means that for him, T winning Florida doesn't make a difference because 538 is twisting the number it uses.


I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.

Speaking in absolutes, you can't say much. But let's take it to extremes: let's say I predict Florida goes to Trump with 95% likelihood, and your model predicts the inverse. Trump wins Florida. Do you agree that we can update our degree of belief in whose model is better based on this?


Not necessarily, no. But your example is so extreme that one of us has to be obviously wrong in how they interpret the data and this should be easy to demonstrate.
No will to live, no wish to die
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1399 Posts
November 06 2016 11:22 GMT
#118823
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/carl-icahn-peter-thiel-and-others-who-support-donald-trump-201405311.html

A lot of very intelligent and succesfull people do support trump.
2 more days and history will be made,one way or the other.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12383 Posts
November 06 2016 11:24 GMT
#118824
On November 06 2016 20:20 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 19:45 Acrofales wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:37 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:01 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:48 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm especially amused by things like "We'll see who's right in two days"... No, we won't. Who wins Florida in the end doesn't really inform us on who had the right model regarding who has the better chances of winning Florida... Believe it or not, it's possible for an event that has 47% chance of happening to happen. That tends to happen 47% of the time.

That might be why the HP article ends up like this:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax. She’s got this.


Yeah but that's what I'm criticizing. The assumption made there is that 538's model is good when Trump wins Florida, and bad when he doesn't. That's not necessarily true at all.

Read again. He says that if Silver is right about Florida it's just a good guess and lucky adjustments.

In my book that means that for him, T winning Florida doesn't make a difference because 538 is twisting the number it uses.


I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.

Speaking in absolutes, you can't say much. But let's take it to extremes: let's say I predict Florida goes to Trump with 95% likelihood, and your model predicts the inverse. Trump wins Florida. Do you agree that we can update our degree of belief in whose model is better based on this?

The problem is that Nebuchad IS talking in absolute terms. Even if a model predicts an event at 99,9% and another at 0,1% and the event happens, there is no way to prove that the second model was not the correct one, and that the one chance over a thousand happened that time. It's just terribly unlikely, and when you talk statistics you talk about likeliness.

My main problem is that the HP guy has never said that "we will see who was right" and so i don't know why we are having this argument in the first place.


"So who’s right?

The beauty here is that we won’t have to wait long to find out."

...
No will to live, no wish to die
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1399 Posts
November 06 2016 11:28 GMT
#118825
On November 06 2016 20:20 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 19:45 Acrofales wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:37 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:01 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:48 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm especially amused by things like "We'll see who's right in two days"... No, we won't. Who wins Florida in the end doesn't really inform us on who had the right model regarding who has the better chances of winning Florida... Believe it or not, it's possible for an event that has 47% chance of happening to happen. That tends to happen 47% of the time.

That might be why the HP article ends up like this:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax. She’s got this.


Yeah but that's what I'm criticizing. The assumption made there is that 538's model is good when Trump wins Florida, and bad when he doesn't. That's not necessarily true at all.

Read again. He says that if Silver is right about Florida it's just a good guess and lucky adjustments.

In my book that means that for him, T winning Florida doesn't make a difference because 538 is twisting the number it uses.


I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.

Speaking in absolutes, you can't say much. But let's take it to extremes: let's say I predict Florida goes to Trump with 95% likelihood, and your model predicts the inverse. Trump wins Florida. Do you agree that we can update our degree of belief in whose model is better based on this?

The problem is that Nebuchad IS talking in absolute terms. Even if a model predicts an event at 99,9% and another at 0,1% and the event happens, there is no way to prove that the second model was not the correct one, and that the one chance over a thousand happened that time. It's just terribly unlikely, and when you talk statistics you talk about likeliness.

My main problem is that the HP guy has never said that "we will see who was right" and so i don't know why we are having this argument in the first place.


Its statistical proove,when the odds are 5% or lower then you can say that it is true and accept that you are wrong in 5% of the cases. it works like that throughout all of statistics,100% certainty you never have.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11731 Posts
November 06 2016 11:42 GMT
#118826
But you can't do a lot of statistics with just one data point, that is the big problem here.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 12:53:56
November 06 2016 12:52 GMT
#118827
On November 06 2016 20:28 pmh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 20:20 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:45 Acrofales wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:37 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:01 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:48 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm especially amused by things like "We'll see who's right in two days"... No, we won't. Who wins Florida in the end doesn't really inform us on who had the right model regarding who has the better chances of winning Florida... Believe it or not, it's possible for an event that has 47% chance of happening to happen. That tends to happen 47% of the time.

That might be why the HP article ends up like this:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax. She’s got this.


Yeah but that's what I'm criticizing. The assumption made there is that 538's model is good when Trump wins Florida, and bad when he doesn't. That's not necessarily true at all.

Read again. He says that if Silver is right about Florida it's just a good guess and lucky adjustments.

In my book that means that for him, T winning Florida doesn't make a difference because 538 is twisting the number it uses.


I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.

Speaking in absolutes, you can't say much. But let's take it to extremes: let's say I predict Florida goes to Trump with 95% likelihood, and your model predicts the inverse. Trump wins Florida. Do you agree that we can update our degree of belief in whose model is better based on this?

The problem is that Nebuchad IS talking in absolute terms. Even if a model predicts an event at 99,9% and another at 0,1% and the event happens, there is no way to prove that the second model was not the correct one, and that the one chance over a thousand happened that time. It's just terribly unlikely, and when you talk statistics you talk about likeliness.

My main problem is that the HP guy has never said that "we will see who was right" and so i don't know why we are having this argument in the first place.


Its statistical proove,when the odds are 5% or lower then you can say that it is true and accept that you are wrong in 5% of the cases. it works like that throughout all of statistics,100% certainty you never have.


Actually, that's not really true at all. There was just a statement from the American Statistical Association saying you shouldn't interpret p values that way, and the people who created hypothesis testing would be incredibly shocked at anyone characterizing p values that way.

For a decision making heuristic Neyman-Pierson argued you could kind of use it that way (with the caveat that 5% is meaningless, and your alpha should depend entirely on the decision) but decision making heuristics are not "proving" anything.
Evotroid
Profile Joined October 2011
Hungary176 Posts
November 06 2016 13:01 GMT
#118828
But there are more than one data points aren't there? For one, there are multiple data points in time, as this is not the first election where poll based prediction models were made, and Silver specifically rose to fame, because his model conformed to reality before when other models did not. Secondly, even this one time, there are multiple data points as the model makes a lot of predictions regarding the states and the house/senate races (or whichever).
A model that gets 90% of the states and the president race right is probably better than the model that got the presidential race outcome right, but with fumbled state results, no?
I got nothing.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1399 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 13:03:21
November 06 2016 13:01 GMT
#118829
About the latino vote,since they seem to be the key. I have been thinking (lol)
Not meaning to offend anyone with the following: In latin American cultures female emancipation is a bit less well developed then in the usa in general,so I am wondering:would they easily vote for a women?
Off course many will,but overall the group might be less supportive of a women and more supportive of a (macho) man like trump? Based on this the democratic vote from the latino group could be disappointing or wont this be an issue at all?
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
November 06 2016 13:05 GMT
#118830
Slight uptick for Hillary on 538. Hopefully the trend towards Donald has stopped.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
November 06 2016 13:06 GMT
#118831
On November 06 2016 22:01 pmh wrote:
About the latino vote,since they seem to be the key. I have been thinking (lol)
Not meaning to offend anyone with the following: In latin American cultures female emancipation is a bit less well developed then in the usa in general,so I am wondering:would they easily vote for a women?
Off course many will,but overall the group might be less supportive of a women and more supportive of a (macho) man like trump? Based on this the democratic vote from the latino group could be disappointing or wont this be an issue at all?


Speculative unless there's polling on this but one might think their more pressing concern is the guy who wants to deport them.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
November 06 2016 13:09 GMT
#118832
On November 06 2016 22:01 pmh wrote:
About the latino vote,since they seem to be the key. I have been thinking (lol)
Not meaning to offend anyone with the following: In latin American cultures female emancipation is a bit less well developed then in the usa in general,so I am wondering:would they easily vote for a women?
Off course many will,but overall the group might be less supportive of a women and more supportive of a (macho) man like trump? Based on this the democratic vote from the latino group could be disappointing or wont this be an issue at all?

Plenty of Latin American countries have elected female heads of state.
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9165 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 13:30:58
November 06 2016 13:12 GMT
#118833
On November 06 2016 22:01 pmh wrote:
About the latino vote,since they seem to be the key. I have been thinking (lol)
Not meaning to offend anyone with the following: In latin American cultures female emancipation is a bit less well developed then in the usa in general,so I am wondering:would they easily vote for a women?
Off course many will,but overall the group might be less supportive of a women and more supportive of a (macho) man like trump? Based on this the democratic vote from the latino group could be disappointing or wont this be an issue at all?

I don't see why it would be an issue, you have a somewhat warped idea of Latin America. Female heads of state are quite common in the area.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


There's also this international poll, Russia is the only notable country where Trump does better than in the US.

http://www.wingia.com/web/files/richeditor/filemanager/WINGIA_Global_Poll_on_US_Election_-_FINALIZED_Revised_Global_Press_Release.pdf

in Argentina Hillary has a 46 point lead
Brazil +66
Colombia +75
Ecuador +50
Mexico +73
Panama +54
Paraguay +68
Peru +40

And most of the remainder is 'don't know', he doesn't pass 11% in any of these countries.
[DUF]MethodMan
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Germany1716 Posts
November 06 2016 13:18 GMT
#118834
On November 06 2016 14:47 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 14:34 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:27 Nyxisto wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:06 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:02 ticklishmusic wrote:
On November 06 2016 13:51 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2016 13:49 PassiveAce wrote:
they came over legally because cuban exiles dont have to go through normal immigration channels -_-


Which is irrelevant to my answer and the question it pertains to. What's your non-sequitur point here?


It's not a non sequitur. You're just really bad at connecting the dots apparently.

Cubans get super special treatment. If you were fleeing political violence from any other South American country you'd have to go through the extremely tedious process of us immigration or be illegal.


Um, yes it is, and again your point is irrelevant. The question asked why are Cuban-Americans going for Trump. It's a fact that cuban-americans are pretty loudly anti-illegal immigration (and of course a myriad of other reasons *cough* Clintons and Elian Gonzalez). The reason for it is irrelevant. Is there something that you fail to comprehend here?


You don't seem to get his point. It's ridiculous to take an anti-illegal immigration stance if you were granted a free pass to immigrate in the first place.


No, I understand perfectly. You don't hear what I'm saying - your points are irrelevant to why they're supporting Trump. What does their reason(s) for their immigration stance matter? The fact is they're supporting Trump because one of his major selling points to his constituents is his immigration policies, which are attractive to Cuban-Americans. The reason for why they hold that PoV is irrelevant. Do you understand?


It just seems a little unbelievable that someone who has made the exact same experiences that illegal immigrants have made takes such a strong and facetious position against people that are right now in the same situation. I'd have guessed that normalisation with the Cuban government is what drives older Ex Cubans to Trump but immigration just seems weird.


What seems weird to me, is you as a complete outsider (neither American nor Cuban immigrant) try to devalue a point in an argument by someone who seems not only well informed on the issue, but also manages to logically explain said point to you. Your disbelief lies in your ideology. Look at immigrants in Germany, Italians were the the first big wave of immigrants, they dislike the Turks who came as the second big wave, who coincidentally dislike people from Yugoslavia, who dislike the "newcomers" from Middle East and North Africa.

It's a reaction similar to what most firstborn kids show "naturally" at a very, very young age, when they get a sibling.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
November 06 2016 13:19 GMT
#118835
On November 06 2016 22:05 Doodsmack wrote:
Slight uptick for Hillary on 538. Hopefully the trend towards Donald has stopped.

There has been very few polls yesterday according to nate silver, and only a couple of them today, so i would wait a few hours to say, but it looks to me the race has stabilized. Four-five days ago the model was miving towards Trump almost every hour.

Lots of newspapers very optimistic about Clinton these last days, but 538 is being VERY cautious.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 13:38:48
November 06 2016 13:26 GMT
#118836
On November 06 2016 22:18 [DUF]MethodMan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 14:47 Nyxisto wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:34 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:27 Nyxisto wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:06 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:02 ticklishmusic wrote:
On November 06 2016 13:51 Wegandi wrote:
On November 06 2016 13:49 PassiveAce wrote:
they came over legally because cuban exiles dont have to go through normal immigration channels -_-


Which is irrelevant to my answer and the question it pertains to. What's your non-sequitur point here?


It's not a non sequitur. You're just really bad at connecting the dots apparently.

Cubans get super special treatment. If you were fleeing political violence from any other South American country you'd have to go through the extremely tedious process of us immigration or be illegal.


Um, yes it is, and again your point is irrelevant. The question asked why are Cuban-Americans going for Trump. It's a fact that cuban-americans are pretty loudly anti-illegal immigration (and of course a myriad of other reasons *cough* Clintons and Elian Gonzalez). The reason for it is irrelevant. Is there something that you fail to comprehend here?


You don't seem to get his point. It's ridiculous to take an anti-illegal immigration stance if you were granted a free pass to immigrate in the first place.


No, I understand perfectly. You don't hear what I'm saying - your points are irrelevant to why they're supporting Trump. What does their reason(s) for their immigration stance matter? The fact is they're supporting Trump because one of his major selling points to his constituents is his immigration policies, which are attractive to Cuban-Americans. The reason for why they hold that PoV is irrelevant. Do you understand?


It just seems a little unbelievable that someone who has made the exact same experiences that illegal immigrants have made takes such a strong and facetious position against people that are right now in the same situation. I'd have guessed that normalisation with the Cuban government is what drives older Ex Cubans to Trump but immigration just seems weird.


What seems weird to me, is you as a complete outsider (neither American nor Cuban immigrant) try to devalue a point in an argument by someone who seems not only well informed on the issue, but also manages to logically explain said point to you. Your disbelief lies in your ideology. Look at immigrants in Germany, Italians were the the first big wave of immigrants, they dislike the Turks who came as the second big wave, who coincidentally dislike people from Yugoslavia, who dislike the "newcomers" from Middle East and North Africa.

It's a reaction similar to what most firstborn kids show "naturally" at a very, very young age, when they get a sibling.

Cuban immigration is a special case in the us; their very strong anti-communist vision has always made them more receptive to republican rhetoric. While latin americans in general are very critical toward right wing american aggressivness, the unique history of the cuban diaspora makes it a different story.

It also seem that the phenomenon is disappearing and that younger people with cuban origins are now more or less in line with the rest of latino voters.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 13:45:13
November 06 2016 13:37 GMT
#118837
On November 06 2016 20:24 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 20:20 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:45 Acrofales wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:37 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 19:01 Nebuchad wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 06 2016 18:48 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm especially amused by things like "We'll see who's right in two days"... No, we won't. Who wins Florida in the end doesn't really inform us on who had the right model regarding who has the better chances of winning Florida... Believe it or not, it's possible for an event that has 47% chance of happening to happen. That tends to happen 47% of the time.

That might be why the HP article ends up like this:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax. She’s got this.


Yeah but that's what I'm criticizing. The assumption made there is that 538's model is good when Trump wins Florida, and bad when he doesn't. That's not necessarily true at all.

Read again. He says that if Silver is right about Florida it's just a good guess and lucky adjustments.

In my book that means that for him, T winning Florida doesn't make a difference because 538 is twisting the number it uses.


I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.

Speaking in absolutes, you can't say much. But let's take it to extremes: let's say I predict Florida goes to Trump with 95% likelihood, and your model predicts the inverse. Trump wins Florida. Do you agree that we can update our degree of belief in whose model is better based on this?

The problem is that Nebuchad IS talking in absolute terms. Even if a model predicts an event at 99,9% and another at 0,1% and the event happens, there is no way to prove that the second model was not the correct one, and that the one chance over a thousand happened that time. It's just terribly unlikely, and when you talk statistics you talk about likeliness.

My main problem is that the HP guy has never said that "we will see who was right" and so i don't know why we are having this argument in the first place.


"So who’s right?

The beauty here is that we won’t have to wait long to find out."

...

You are either not reading well or not posting in good faith.

Here is the passage you quote:

Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.

He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”

So who’s right?

The beauty here is that we won’t have to wait long to find out. But let’s lay out now why we think we’re right and 538 is wrong. Or, at least, why they’re doing it wrong.


In this exerpt, Grim is clearly talking about the whole election (51 states). You quote one sentence while we (you in the first place) are talking about the Florida result, forgetting to mention the context, which is the whole election,

Further in the article he said the result of Florida mattered very little to prove anything here:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens. Maybe Silver will be right come Election Day ― Trump will win Florida, and we’ll all be in for a very long night. Or our forecast will be right, she’ll win nationally by 5 or 6, and we can all turn in early.

If he’s right, though, it was just a good guess ― a fortunate “trend line adjustment” ― not a mathematical forecast. If you want to put your faith in the numbers, you can relax.


And you said:

I am contesting the assumption that who ends up winning Florida informs us on who had the better model when it comes to chances of winning Florida.


So again, Grim never said that, he said the opposite (the result of Florida won't prove or disprove anything it could be sheer luck). But he is perfectly right to say that the whole election will prove which model is better as he did in the first quote that you cut at your convenience, because their respective models will be tested not once (like in Florida) but 51 times.

(Silver became famous in the first place by forseeing the result of Obama's elections with a 51/51 and 50/51 accuracy.)
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Elroi
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden5599 Posts
November 06 2016 13:38 GMT
#118838
On November 06 2016 15:33 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2016 15:03 Danglars wrote:
On November 06 2016 14:39 Aquanim wrote:
...we would not have an interesting discussion on that topic.

Let me just mimic your quoting style for a moment. I've found time and time again the partisan attachment to Clinton is the best explanation for making the choice that her record just contains small mistakes or lapses in judgment. I say this only to illustrate, and feel free to snip all justification for my conclusions out of future quote trains, that if nobody can find common ground on a very lengthy and transparent record, the possibility of good debate vanishes. I can absolutely see your point that no further enlightening discussion seems possible on that topic. I just wish the most active arguers from the left + Show Spoiler +
(some on right too, but they already get massive scorn)
would acknowledge the glaring and massive flaws of BOTH candidates, which may or may not be individually and subjectively disqualifying, to preserve the idea that productive discussion can occur on ANY topic whatsoever. There's no use talking forestry at all if one party thinks million acre fires might just be a very plucky isolated square kilometer sending up disproportionate smoke.

I really don't get why so many of the leftist/liberal posters go so far out of their way to fellate the Clintons. The Clintons are patently vile by any measure and should be readily acknowledged as such. I certainly understand the argument that the Clintons are comparatively better than Trump and can respect it, but the degree to which some posters stick their heads in the sand regarding who they're supporting simply boggles the mind.

The reason why people defend Hillary is not necessarily because they think she is perfect. I think you would find that most posters here who defend her find her mediocre at best. The reason why I feel the need to defend her is because of the groundless and massive smear campaign that seems to be grounded only in lies and conjecture. And this massive campagin also serves the purpose of getting someone who is far more corrupt and ruthless elected.
"To all eSports fans, I want to be remembered as a progamer who can make something out of nothing, and someone who always does his best. I think that is the right way of living, and I'm always doing my best to follow that." - Jaedong. /watch?v=jfghAzJqAp0
Kamisamanachi
Profile Joined April 2015
4665 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 13:52:42
November 06 2016 13:48 GMT
#118839
I am an outsider to this election and first time posting here. I wanted to ask , how much effect will Indian American voters have on this election? Asking out of curiosity .

Edit : I saw that ad Trump directed towards Indian Americans in which he speaks Hindi . Does he really care for Indian American community ?
fan of dream runs. orange ti3 , fnatic ti6 , wings ti6 , cdec ti5 !! B-god's anti mage , mushi's shadow fiend
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-06 13:55:06
November 06 2016 13:52 GMT
#118840
On November 06 2016 22:48 Kamisamanachi wrote:
I am an outsider to this election and first time posting here. I wanted to ask , how much effect will Indian American voters have on this election? Asking out of curiosity .

Indian americans support overwhelmingly the democrats, like most minorities. Something like 2/3 - 1/3.

http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-how-indian-americans-vote-in-us-presidential-elections-2016-3009604/

Now there are only 1,6 million indian americans who can vote in this election, so they won't have a very big weight in themselves.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Prev 1 5940 5941 5942 5943 5944 10093 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 20h 12m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
RotterdaM 660
IndyStarCraft 179
LamboSC2 141
Rex 118
BRAT_OK 84
StarCraft: Brood War
Calm 5959
Rain 3864
Flash 1381
Horang2 1270
Shuttle 932
Hyuk 453
Light 391
BeSt 360
EffOrt 299
Soulkey 283
[ Show more ]
Mong 227
ZerO 215
Last 210
Soma 192
Zeus 163
Pusan 154
Hyun 150
Snow 147
Rush 139
hero 108
Mind 67
JYJ 43
Barracks 41
ToSsGirL 34
Shinee 30
Hm[arnc] 29
Free 20
Noble 16
GoRush 15
sorry 15
scan(afreeca) 14
910 12
SilentControl 11
Nal_rA 9
Icarus 8
Terrorterran 1
Dota 2
Gorgc3832
XaKoH 463
Fuzer 146
XcaliburYe107
Counter-Strike
olofmeister3060
zeus1058
x6flipin580
fl0m255
edward77
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor108
Other Games
Liquid`RaSZi1410
B2W.Neo1104
crisheroes260
Sick243
Pyrionflax177
ToD128
Mew2King127
ZerO(Twitch)8
Organizations
StarCraft 2
WardiTV566
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• iHatsuTV 10
• intothetv
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• lizZardDota252
• WagamamaTV44
League of Legends
• Jankos2000
• Stunt929
Upcoming Events
The PondCast
20h 12m
HomeStory Cup
1d 23h
Korean StarCraft League
2 days
HomeStory Cup
2 days
Replay Cast
3 days
HomeStory Cup
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Wardi Open
5 days
WardiTV Invitational
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-01-26
OSC Championship Season 13
Underdog Cup #3

Ongoing

CSL 2025 WINTER (S19)
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
Acropolis #4 - TS4
Rongyi Cup S3
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter Qual
eXTREMESLAND 2025
SL Budapest Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025

Upcoming

Escore Tournament S1: W6
Escore Tournament S1: W7
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Bellum Gens Elite Stara Zagora 2026
LiuLi Cup: 2025 Grand Finals
HSC XXVIII
Nations Cup 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League Season 23
ESL Pro League Season 23
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.