EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 5765
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21815 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:23 OuchyDathurts wrote: They'll vote Republican or they'll vote nothing at all. Now if instead of courting or pussyfooting around the racist fringe they just flat out said "Fuck racists, I don't want your vote" like a competent and sane person they could pull in more moderate voters. Couple that with ditching outlandish social conservative ideals that people under 60 think are reprehensible and they might have a shot to win some stuff! Their base is dying and its only going to get worse. There will need to be some pretty dramatic pivoting sooner than later and telling the lunatic racist fringe to go fuck their hat would help make the party more appealing to the sane. Lets say 40% of the country is Democrat, 40% is Republican and 20% switches around. If the Republicans tell their racist base to fuck off and are left with 20% Republicans they need to win all the independents to maybe win. Its hard to win all the independents so Republicans are not going to win anything. Hence the current problem with the Republicans, which ofc is entirely their own fault with the Southern Strategy. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:21 oneofthem wrote: the interesting question is not what the far right is going to do but what the moderate right will do, particularly the business types. there's been a switch of who is leading who. the elites used to lead the zombie horde, but now that the zombies have become sentient, the choice is between fighting the zombies and taking a potential lifeboat to democrats. it would require a combination of some sort of centrist consciousness raising and the actual lifeboat being sent from democrats. it could seriously work with a more creative leadership. There's simply no other choice than to switch over to some more reasonable form of Burkean Conservatism which shouldn't be impossible given that the US has some history within that tradition. The rabid stuff we're seeing right now is literally dying out. There is no voterbase for the Trump undercurrent in the future. | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:31 Gorsameth wrote: Lets say 40% of the country is Democrat, 40% is Republican and 20% switches around. If the Republicans tell their racist base to fuck off and are left with 20% Republicans they need to win all the independents to maybe win. Its hard to win all the independents so Republicans are not going to win anything. Hence the current problem with the Republicans, which ofc is entirely their own fault with the Southern Strategy. If they pivot from the insane social conservative issues they can pull some right leaning democrats their way. They'll absolutely have to move left on that stuff as baby boomers die off. Younger generations won't have anything to do with that stuff. This assumes they realize they can't win anything with the current party platform nationally and they want to win again however. It's going to require a pretty dramatic shift in their part to win in the future. | ||
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Evotroid
Hungary176 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:35 Nyxisto wrote: There's simply no other choice than to switch over to some more reasonable form of Burkean Conservatism which shouldn't be impossible given that the US has some history within that tradition. The rabid stuff we're seeing right now is literally dying out. There is no voterbase for the Trump undercurrent the future. Honsetly, looking at reddit, I sometimes fear for the future voter base that grows up on that..... I mean, I know, silent majority and all that... but really ... so much delusion, so much stupid at The_Donald, how sure are we it won't spiral out of control and hatch a generation with babyboomer 2.0 mentality? | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:41 Evotroid wrote: Honsetly, looking at reddit, I sometimes fear for the future voter base that grows up on that..... I mean, I know, silent majority and all that... but really ... so much delusion, so much stupid at The_Donald, how sure are we it won't spiral out of control and hatch a generation with babyboomer 2.0 mentality? At max it is 200K people and there is a number of them not from the US. It is good to remember that volume on the internet rarely translates directly into action in reality. 200K people spread across the US is nothing in the general election. But it will fill up a couple rallies. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15721 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:21 oneofthem wrote: the interesting question is not what the far right is going to do but what the moderate right will do, particularly the business types. there's been a switch of who is leading who. the elites used to lead the zombie horde, but now that the zombies have become sentient, the choice is between fighting the zombies and taking a potential lifeboat to democrats. it would require a combination of some sort of centrist consciousness raising and the actual lifeboat being sent from democrats. it could seriously work with a more creative leadership. What do you think democrats could do to sway the Romney/Kasich voters? | ||
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Buckyman
1364 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
And on stop of that, they keep pushing deeply unpopular social issues like overturning Roe v Wade and removing lessons promoting critical thinking from public education. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15721 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:52 Buckyman wrote: Social issues have nothing to do with the Republicans' current batch of trouble. Their two biggest problems this cycle are (1) Mainstream media pushing Trump on them and (2) Mainstream media demonizing Trump after the primary. They had at least five different candidates who could have thrashed Clinton, but none of them could compete with the mass of systematically misinformed voters that turned out to the primaries. I think this point is underappreciated. During the republican primary, it felt like every single day had multiple Trump headlines about the overthrowing of the political elite. The media made a very, very strong case for Trump. I can't help but wonder what would have happened if they had chosen to ignore Trump and focus on the race between Bush and Rubio. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
CNN overshot their target revenue for 2016 by 100 million based solely on Trump. They turned our election into a reality show for profit. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:41 Evotroid wrote: Honsetly, looking at reddit, I sometimes fear for the future voter base that grows up on that..... I mean, I know, silent majority and all that... but really ... so much delusion, so much stupid at The_Donald, how sure are we it won't spiral out of control and hatch a generation with babyboomer 2.0 mentality? Well if you look at every poll or spend some time in your average city you see that Trump like mentalities are not representative of the millennial generation, who will be the largest voting bloc from 2020 on, they'll probably also vote more often as they grow older. Reddit and 4chan aren't exactly very representative of what's going on in the actual world. The only threat is essentially complacency. If even a decent number of young people get their butts to the voting booth the whole alt-right movement is done for. Women alone can probably get that done. | ||
KwarK
United States42989 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:52 Buckyman wrote: Social issues have nothing to do with the Republicans' current batch of trouble. Their two biggest problems this cycle are (1) Mainstream media pushing Trump on them and (2) Mainstream media demonizing Trump after the primary. They had at least five different candidates who could have thrashed Clinton, but none of them could compete with the mass of systematically misinformed voters that turned out to the primaries. The mainstream media reporting all the reasons that Trump couldn't possibly be an acceptable candidate is not what propelled him to primary victory. That'd be the Republican voters in the primary. | ||
Nakajin
Canada8989 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:36 OuchyDathurts wrote: If they pivot from the insane social conservative issues they can pull some right leaning democrats their way. They'll absolutely have to move left on that stuff as baby boomers die off. Younger generations won't have anything to do with that stuff. This assumes they realize they can't win anything with the current party platform nationally and they want to win again however. It's going to require a pretty dramatic shift in their part to win in the future. They will probably need to de a switch in the futur, however I think they got at least a couple more election. Lets not forget that when Trump was talking about the issues the most, in august and september he was very close to Clinton. I personnally think that if someone with the same type of message (against the governement, closing the border, tougher on crime and immigration, against the politicly correct) but who is not a crazy egomaniac incapable of running a race he/she could very well win. Even with the younger genration it is a message that can work very well, the Front National in France got the biggest party of the vote of the 18-24 of all the party with 35% in 2012 and that is exactly the same as all the left combine. And we are talking about a group that is against same sex wedding, want to cut governement money on "confort abortion", cut by 20 the number of immigrant (from 200 000 to 10 000), talk about anti-white racisim, has propose many "secular"programs that are clearly desing for muslims and who was found by a guy who still say holocost never happen and the jew countrol the world, the party is now lead by his daughter. (for her defense I don't think she oppenly agree with her father on the last one) So if these guy can get 35% of young voter in a 7-8 man race don't belive the Republican can't. Of course the situation is not the same and I am not saying it will happen to in the US but there is a possibility . | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:52 Buckyman wrote: Social issues have nothing to do with the Republicans' current batch of trouble. Their two biggest problems this cycle are (1) Mainstream media pushing Trump on them and (2) Mainstream media demonizing Trump after the primary. They had at least five different candidates who could have thrashed Clinton, but none of them could compete with the mass of systematically misinformed voters that turned out to the primaries. Somewhat right. Endless full coverage of his rallies and the speeches. But beside the mainstream media and thread narrative, I'd add A packed field on the debate stage for ages defeating the plurality that opposes Trump. Weed out, separate debates into 2x5 or whatever, but nobody wins splitting topics 17 ways unless you make sound bites for a living. Blame the elites for Trump, but also blame the guys that took ages to drop out and the system that gives stage time to everybody for months. Mainstream media will demonize everybody, its whether you can fight back hard and on principle AND it helps to not have these character flaws prominently/bragging about sexually harassing women. If Trump had better advisors, a better campaign, and took free advice better, #2 is much easier. Basically because outrage and hysterics is oversold at the moment. He got something like 38% of the primary vote up until his last rival dropped, that's eminently beatable no matter which way you slice uninformed voters just tuning in and wondering what the hell happened to the country. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On October 26 2016 07:30 Danglars wrote: Somewhat right. Endless full coverage of his rallies and the speeches. But beside the mainstream media and thread narrative, I'd add A packed field on the debate stage for ages defeating the plurality that opposes Trump. Weed out, separate debates into 2x5 or whatever, but nobody wins splitting topics 17 ways unless you make sound bites for a living. Blame the elites for Trump, but also blame the guys that took ages to drop out and the system that gives stage time to everybody for months. Mainstream media will demonize everybody, its whether you can fight back hard and on principle AND it helps to not have these character flaws prominently/bragging about sexually harassing women. If Trump had better advisors, a better campaign, and took free advice better, #2 is much easier. Basically because outrage and hysterics is oversold at the moment. He got something like 38% of the primary vote up until his last rival dropped, that's eminently beatable no matter which way you slice uninformed voters just tuning in and wondering what the hell happened to the country. The theory was disproven when Huntsman was run out on a rail in 2012 as he was the only sane and legit Republican that was left. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:35 Nyxisto wrote: There's simply no other choice than to switch over to some more reasonable form of Burkean Conservatism which shouldn't be impossible given that the US has some history within that tradition. The rabid stuff we're seeing right now is literally dying out. There is no voterbase for the Trump undercurrent in the future. the problem for the gop is that the rabid faction is a majority within their own party. it's obviously a dying base but one that will live for at least 30 years or more. the leverage here has to be from a recognition of 1. hopelessness of internal gop politics 2. concern for future of government but the party leadership and the voters are different. the gop leadership, the highly organized, movement types, would obviously want to preserve their party, because as much as the trump populists want to rage about elites and so on, their representatives can be bought. guys like robert mercer doesn't care about much except if he can write the tax policy. the voters though are different. a lot of suburban republicans just vote on the GOP brand, the image of 'respectability' and soft privilege signaling etc. these people can be carved out by making the case that they are now on the defensive in the GOP, and won't have much influence on leadership. as far as what dems could do, it's only a theoretical exercise because hrc's not ideally positioned to signal certain values that could turn these voters. you'd need someone like Mike Mullen ideally. the key here is to have a leader with no negatives to get attacked. the way the gop leadership squad controls their voters is through negative character assassination. bill clinton, for example, could have led a transition just based on his policy and words, but he's got too much negatives. then in terms of policy and positioning, they'd need to say a lot of things about fixing government, making it work etc. again, positions that are really core to what hrc is about, but visual wise not there with her. they could recruit republican leaders, particularly national security types, to make their pitch. the other difficulty is that the dems don't have this core of highly organized movement builders at the helm. for all the talks about manipulation from the DNC, they get their clocks cleaned from an organizational perspective. we also don't really want to ditch labor and the left at the end of the day. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Logo
United States7542 Posts
On October 26 2016 06:56 Mohdoo wrote: I think this point is underappreciated. During the republican primary, it felt like every single day had multiple Trump headlines about the overthrowing of the political elite. The media made a very, very strong case for Trump. I can't help but wonder what would have happened if they had chosen to ignore Trump and focus on the race between Bush and Rubio. It's not just the media though really (they have plenty of blame though). The republicans also 'used' Trump early on because they didn't take him seriously and found him useful as an attack dog. No one invested very much into attacking Trump during the early primary because they felt like he was always hurting the other guy more than he was hurting them (or that he'd say something stupid and drop off I guess). I believe the leaked e-mails also show some amount Democratic complacency in pushing forward Trump as a nominee (don't stop your enemy from defeating themselves). 538 covered this a bit: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-some-gop-candidates-arent-taking-the-fight-to-trump/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-attack-ads-are-finally-popping-up-but-they-might-be-too-late/ Then there's other things like the GOP changing their primary system so an early front runner could lock things up quicker (to avoid the 2012 disaster of a late resolution to the primary). The biggest lie of the campaign is that underlying idea that the GOP establishment isn't responsible for Donald Trump and that's saying a lot for a campaign that includes Donald Trump. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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