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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
zf
Profile Joined April 2011
231 Posts
October 25 2016 01:32 GMT
#115161
On October 25 2016 10:23 zlefin wrote:
A lot of those probably haven't had a stable government for long enough, I mean, ,most of those probably haven't had their current one for more than 60 years, and quite possibly a lot less.
It does take some time for organized parties to build up.

Probably so. But when the constraint shifts from FPTP to FPTP + presidential system + stable government + > 60 years, the population quickly shrinks to one.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 25 2016 01:39 GMT
#115162
perhaps, doens't change the point about fptp trending toward 2 parties (unless there's very strong regional identity).
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 25 2016 01:43 GMT
#115163
On October 25 2016 10:22 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 09:58 TheYango wrote:
On October 25 2016 05:26 biology]major wrote:
Lmao you guys are getting triggered real hard by those veritas videos.

James O'Keefe is a piece of shit human being who clearly demonstrated during the ACORN fiasco that he has no qualms with ruining people's lives to push his twisted "activism". So excuse me if I think the man doesn't deserve any publicity whatsoever.

The only reason the guy is still relevant at all is because Breitbart hired him anyway even after he was revealed to be a known fraud.


That's fine, James O'Keefe is a piece of shit, cool. He didn't force Creamer to say directly on camera that he communicated with Clinton regarding 'Donald ducks' to agitate Trump supporters. That is most likely a violation of laws preventing communication between PACS and campaigns. He didn't force the DNC to fire two people. Explain to me why the people in the video said what they did, instead of attacking O'keefe.

I suspect your tune would be quite different if it was trump under attack by a muddied source.


you're projecting/ strawmanning some hypothetical. idk what logical fallacy that even is.

the acorn video was bunk.

one of the guys interviewed came out and said that he was interviewed under false pretenses by a group pretending to be representing a donor group that was trying to engage in voter fraud and that he stated that it was illegal to vote multiple times but humored them because he approached it with a "hey maybe i can get some money for a mutually agreeable legit project"

so saying okeefe is a piece of shit has more than some basis in fact and is not merely an opinion. maybe just stop digging that hole, eh?

i would assume that the creamer bit, much like the emails and most of the pathetic THIS WILL SURELY BE THE END OF CLINTON stuff thats come out of okeefe and other elements of the rightwing media (not even far right anymore) is stuff thats taken wildly out of context. i have a hard time believing that people dont understand the importance of context when it comes to these things especially when they know so little about the inner workings of a campaign or what ideas are bounced around.

my emails have all sorts of stuff that could be interpreted weirdly - a tame example is that from some youd think me and my boss have a terrible relationship, but from the full view it becomes apparent we have a very healthy relationship and that shes a great mentor.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13892 Posts
October 25 2016 01:45 GMT
#115164
I mean third parties could theoretically work alright in america as it is, Americans just naturally play the game differently then the rest of the world.

If no president gets 270 electoral points in a world with third parties the presidency would be decided by congressional vote every year where a coalition would have to be made in order to reach a majority of votes in the house.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
KlaCkoN
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Sweden1661 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-25 01:49:00
October 25 2016 01:47 GMT
#115165
The data does not bear that out. (RE: FPTP trending toward two party systems)

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/duvergers-law-dead-parrot-dunleavy/

TLDR: Perfect two party systems are found only in the US and a handful of small Caribbean nations. Other democracies with FPTP (new zealand, canada, india, UK...) have more than 15% of the vote going to "third" parties even in individual races.
"Voice or no voice the people can always be brought to the bidding of their leaders ... All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 25 2016 01:53 GMT
#115166


It will be interesting to see how much long term damage Trump did does to the GOP. Polling suggests almost every minority demographic views the GOP as outright hostile.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-25 02:00:46
October 25 2016 01:59 GMT
#115167
That article doesn't quite make the full case for FPTP being wrong; while it does make a pretty good case, there are some notable differences; in particular that the main cases they cite are parliamentary systems.
I rather suspect the degree of top-down party control may also make a significant difference.
certainly an area ripe for more research, though the limited number of cases makes hypotheses hard.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
October 25 2016 02:01 GMT
#115168
Breitbart coordinated with liberal activist and organizer who disrupted GOP primary campaign events

A liberal activist and organizer coordinated with reporters from the conservative news site Breitbart during the primaries to cover his disruptions of events for candidates such as Sen. Marco Rubio.

Aaron Black, an associate with Democracy Partners and a former Occupy Wall Street organizer, worked with the pro-Trump site Breitbart, tipping them off about his stunts, exchanging raw video and coordinating coverage, according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation.

Black has resurfaced recently as one of the people featured in undercover video from the Project Veritas group. In the video, he claims to work for the DNC. Though he does not appear on their payroll, his bio at Democracy Partners credits him with "working closely with the Democratic National Committee" during the 2012 election cycle. Black in the video says he helped organize violent protests in Chicago that led to Trump's cancellation of a rally there in March.

According to the source, Black coordinated with Breitbart via email, phone and in person, including when he dressed up as a robot and trolled Marco Rubio’s events. The relationship was described as very friendly. An article subsequently published on Breitbart featured video footage of a physical confrontation between Black and Rubio's New Hampshire campaign chairman.

"He worked directly with Breitbart’s political team on the ground in the primary states to sabotage Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz, and elect Trump as nominee of [the Republican] party,” the source told POLITICO. “[Black] was coordinating with [Breitbart’s] top staff to rabble rouse against Rubio at rallies."

That Breitbart had supported Trump over Rubio and Cruz is already known. The site has been a reliable source of pro-Donald Trump material, a relationship that was made official when Breitbart chairman Stephen Bannon was appointed Trump’s campaign CEO in August. Bannon subsequently took a leave from his role at Breitbart.

But their willingness to work with a progressive activist perhaps goes to show how far they were willing to go to take down candidates, such as Rubio, whom they have described as being for “open borders" and "pro-amnesty.”

But Rubio was likely a common foe for both liberals and Breitbart. As hacked WikiLeaks emails from the Clinton campaign recently revealed, the Clinton campaign feared going up against Rubio in the general election.

Though Black is featured in the recent Project Veritas videos, none of the Breitbart write-ups on those videos – which were brought up in the last debate by Trump as evidence the DNC was coordinating disruptions at Republican campaign events – mention him by name.

Black has been interviewed by the site and has also been a guest on Breitbart’s radio programs.

In August, Yahoo News reported that Breitbart Washington editor Matthew Boyle had tried to get a progressive activist to send around a letter attacking a former Breitbart reporter —Michelle Fields — who quit the site after a confrontation with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Boyle was trying to rally progressives to protest her hiring by the Huffington Post. (The letter was never sent.)

"Aaron Black reached out to Breitbart and then we covered this and multiple other stories on our website and on our radio show on Sirius XM Patriot Channel 125," Breitbart editor-in-chief Alex Marlow told POLITICO in a statement. "Breitbart New Network is proud to work with sources from across the political spectrum to cover important and breaking news stories so that we may bring the most informative reporting to our readers. This type of reporting proves why Breitbart continues to have amazing growth with over 200 million monthly page views and 36 million monthly unique visitors. In addition, this month we launched an online store and radio show with Major League Superstar Curt Schilling.”

Rubio's office declined to comment, and Black did not return requests for comment. We were unable to get a comment from Democracy Partners, but will update this post if they respond.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/breitbart-liberal-activist-230255#ixzz4O3KlZGxq
Blisse
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada3710 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-25 02:38:12
October 25 2016 02:15 GMT
#115169
On October 25 2016 10:22 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 09:58 TheYango wrote:
On October 25 2016 05:26 biology]major wrote:
Lmao you guys are getting triggered real hard by those veritas videos.

James O'Keefe is a piece of shit human being who clearly demonstrated during the ACORN fiasco that he has no qualms with ruining people's lives to push his twisted "activism". So excuse me if I think the man doesn't deserve any publicity whatsoever.

The only reason the guy is still relevant at all is because Breitbart hired him anyway even after he was revealed to be a known fraud.


That's fine, James O'Keefe is a piece of shit, cool. He didn't force Creamer to say directly on camera that he communicated with Clinton regarding 'Donald ducks' to agitate Trump supporters. That is most likely a violation of laws preventing communication between PACS and campaigns. He didn't force the DNC to fire two people. Explain to me why the people in the video said what they did, instead of attacking O'keefe.

I suspect your tune would be quite different if it was trump under attack by a muddied source.


Do... you understand what editing videos does? Because it doesn't seem like you do. You're ignoring the premise that O'Keefe is a completely discredited journalist because he doesn't honestly present information. He edits videos to take words and sentences out of context. Here, have a read at his resume


Video:
a specific story that an NPR executive had called members of the Tea Party “racist.”


Actual:
In reality, the executive had been quoting someone else; that part was conveniently edited out.


---

Video:
O’Keefe’s story that local officials in New York state were agreeing to waste taxpayer money on a fake company that dug holes and filled them up again.


Actual:
Instead, the footage just showed officials trying to be courteous to actors they believed were constituents in an absurd, manufactured situation.


---

Video:
O’Keefe’s group had cut parts of a secretly recorded conversation mid-sentence to paint a certain picture that two environmental producers were accepting funding from foreign oil interests


Actual:
the unedited footage revealed they were actually discussing something completely different.



https://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/10/20/james-o-keefe-says-journalists-never-release-raw-footage-because-it-would-tell-different-story/214010


You see how I post the source after splicing out sentences? That's because I'm trying to paint a picture using the source while still letting you confirm that I'm not taking the words out of context in the wrong light.

That's exactly the shit O'Keefe is not doing because he's a discredited non-journalist.
There is no one like you in the universe.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 25 2016 02:21 GMT
#115170
This is like Inception. Guy from occupy wall street stages fake outburst for conservative media out lot and claims to work with the DNC while being interviewed by conservative guerrilla video producer.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12157 Posts
October 25 2016 02:31 GMT
#115171
James O'Keefe: "That’s what journalism is. Journalism is telling a story."

That's really all you need to know about this guy.
No will to live, no wish to die
KlaCkoN
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Sweden1661 Posts
October 25 2016 02:40 GMT
#115172
On October 25 2016 10:59 zlefin wrote:
That article doesn't quite make the full case for FPTP being wrong; while it does make a pretty good case, there are some notable differences; in particular that the main cases they cite are parliamentary systems.
I rather suspect the degree of top-down party control may also make a significant difference.
certainly an area ripe for more research, though the limited number of cases makes hypotheses hard.

The point is that there is no reason to presuppose that FPTP leads to two party systems based on available data.
As pointed out above, the combined restrictions of "presidential system", "FPTP voting", and "established democracy" leaves us with so few samples that any general statements are pure conjecture.
Meanwhile, in parliamentary systems FPTP voting does not seem to cause a 2 party system. I agree that more research into the mechanisms that underlie why political systems develop the way they do would be interesting, but as of today any statement linking FPTP voting with a two party system seems scientifically unsound to me.
"Voice or no voice the people can always be brought to the bidding of their leaders ... All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger."
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 25 2016 02:47 GMT
#115173
there's always a shortage of data; but that the counterargument uses improper counters is also a thing ot be mindful of.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Rebs
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Pakistan10726 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-25 02:49:05
October 25 2016 02:47 GMT
#115174
On October 25 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
perhaps, doens't change the point about fptp trending toward 2 parties (unless there's very strong regional identity).


ehh I think you are being presumptuous, Parliamentary style FTPT in general and particulary the brand that Pakistan uses has room for multi parties and plenty of independents because you need to win seats in the National Assembly and Parliament to form a govt. You vote district level and federal level. But at the federal level it kinda doesnt matter because if they dont have the districts they cant form a government. I mean theres plenty of other flaws but the multi parties in Pakistan arent going anywhere because they all occupy different positions that are relevant. But screw Pakistan, just look at Canada.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 25 2016 02:50 GMT
#115175
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign on Monday began airing a live nightly video news program, fanning speculation that Trump may seek to capitalize on his supporters’ zeal by launching a media network after November’s election.

“This is an effort to bring our message directly to you. You don’t have to take it through the media filter and the spin they put on it,” said Cliff Simms, the Trump adviser who co-hosted the program, which was broadcast on Facebook. “We plan to do this each and every night.”

Co-host Boris Epshteyn, a senior adviser to Trump, insisted the Trump-focused news show was not a test run for anything else. “The left-wing media’s even trying to spin this, believe it or not,” Epshteyn said. “They’re saying, well this is ‘Trump TV.’ That’s not what this is. This is our campaign, and most importantly, our candidate being out there and speaking directly to the voters.”

Two weeks ago, the Financial Times reported that Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, publisher of the New York Observer, had met with a boutique media deal-making firm about launching a television network.

And an August report in The New York Times indicated that Trump and Kushner had “quietly explored becoming involved with a media holding, either by investing in one or by taking one over.”

Trump last month denied having had any talks about starting a media company, but eyebrows were raised when, ahead of last week’s final presidential debate, his campaign produced a live program on Facebook starring former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R).

As it turns out, based on Monday’s announcement, that was just a pilot. The show aired from what hosts described as the “war room” inside campaign headquarters at Trump Tower in New York. It kicked off with an interview featuring campaign manager Kellyanne Conway and later cut to Tomi Lahren, a conservative commentator with Glenn Beck’s “TheBlaze.”

Without a debate to stir interest, ratings were down. The audience for Wednesday’s show peaked at 200,000 people, according to Politico. Monday’s program began with just shy of 60,000 viewers, and within 30 minutes half the audience had moved on.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-25 02:57:21
October 25 2016 02:54 GMT
#115176
On October 25 2016 11:47 Rebs wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
perhaps, doens't change the point about fptp trending toward 2 parties (unless there's very strong regional identity).


ehh I think you are being presumptuous, Parliamentary style FTPT in general and particulary the brand that Pakistan uses has room for multi parties and plenty of independents because you need to win seats in the National Assembly and Parliament to form a govt. You vote district level and federal level. But at the federal level it kinda doesnt matter because if they dont have the districts they cant form a government. I mean theres plenty of other flaws but the multi parties in Pakistan arent going anywhere because they all occupy different positions that are relevant. But screw Pakistan, just look at Canada.

are the pakistan parties more bottom up or top down in nature?
how distributed is the power within them?

also, the underlying theory isn't one I came up with; it's a thing that's been around ofr awhile, so it's not my presumption so much as one that is often found.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 25 2016 02:56 GMT
#115177
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is facing a fundraising scandal after a Telegraph investigation exposed how key supporters were prepared to accept illicit donations from foreign backers.

Senior figures involved with the Great America PAC, one of the leading "independent" groups organising television advertisements and grassroots support for the Republican nominee, sought to channel $2 million from a Chinese donor into the campaign to elect the billionaire despite laws prohibiting donations from foreigners.

In return, undercover reporters purporting to represent the fictitious donor were assured that he would obtain “influence” if Mr Trump made it to the White House.

Last week Eric Beach, the PAC’s co-chairman, confirmed to the reporters at an event in Las Vegas that their client's support would be "remembered" if Mr Trump became president.

The disclosure raises questions about the origins of money being ploughed into supporting Mr Trump’s candidacy.

The PAC “consultant” who brokered the deal proposed using as a conduit a type of organisation he admitted is seen as being responsible for the “’dark money’ in politics”.

The revelations also highlight the apparent desperation of Mr Trump's supporters to finance the final weeks of his campaign amid a series of controversies and polls showing him losing in key states.

Mr Trump once labelled Super PACs a “disaster” that have “total control of the candidates”, and has criticised Mrs Clinton for relying on outside groups.

Undercover reporters posing as consultants acting for a Chinese benefactor approached specific pro-Trump and pro-Clinton fundraisers and groups after receiving information that individuals were involved in hiding foreign donations.

Sources also said PACs, “independent” organisations that can raise unlimited sums of money to lobby for or against particular candidates, were being used to circumvent rules.

The pro-Clinton organisations did not respond to initial approaches. But earlier this month an undercover reporter spoke by telephone to Eric Beach, co-chairman of the pro-Trump Great America PAC, which has the backing of Rudy Giuliani, one of Mr Trump’s most senior advisers, as well as the billionaire's son Eric.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
BallinWitStalin
Profile Joined July 2008
1177 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-12-11 19:20:24
October 25 2016 03:11 GMT
#115178
I await the reminiscent nerd chills I will get when I hear a Korean broadcaster yell "WEEAAAAVVVVVUUUHHH" while watching Dota
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42557 Posts
October 25 2016 03:16 GMT
#115179
On October 25 2016 11:40 KlaCkoN wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 10:59 zlefin wrote:
That article doesn't quite make the full case for FPTP being wrong; while it does make a pretty good case, there are some notable differences; in particular that the main cases they cite are parliamentary systems.
I rather suspect the degree of top-down party control may also make a significant difference.
certainly an area ripe for more research, though the limited number of cases makes hypotheses hard.

The point is that there is no reason to presuppose that FPTP leads to two party systems based on available data.
As pointed out above, the combined restrictions of "presidential system", "FPTP voting", and "established democracy" leaves us with so few samples that any general statements are pure conjecture.
Meanwhile, in parliamentary systems FPTP voting does not seem to cause a 2 party system. I agree that more research into the mechanisms that underlie why political systems develop the way they do would be interesting, but as of today any statement linking FPTP voting with a two party system seems scientifically unsound to me.

The UK has been dominated by two parties since the war and we have a parliamentary system. Third parties have a very difficult fight outside of single issue parties like the SNP with regional appeal, and even they can't hope to do any more than join a coalition.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32740 Posts
October 25 2016 03:31 GMT
#115180
On October 25 2016 11:31 Nebuchad wrote:
James O'Keefe: "That’s what journalism is. Journalism is telling a story."

That's really all you need to know about this guy.

Replace journalism with propaganda or conspiracy theory creation, and that's more accurate.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
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