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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
We live in the upside down world when every good economic news indicator is met with panic and sell-offs. It might cause the fed to stop QE∞, after all. It's all backwards until the injection ends (Injection might not be the right word considering its length, maybe life support IV?). Slow and then end QE and let the markets go back to reality.
He may be the author of the "Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report," but Mark Faber lays it out,
My view was that they would taper by about $10 billion to $15 billion, but I'm not surprised that they don't do it for the simple reason that I think we are in QE unlimited. The people at the Fed are professors, academics. They never worked a single life in the business of ordinary people. And they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people maybe--not even 5% of the population, 3% of the population. And when you look today at the market action, ok, stocks are up 1%. Silver is up more than 6%, gold up more than 4%, copper 2.9%, crude oil 2.68%, and so forth. Crude oil, gasoline are things people need, ordinary people buy everyday. Thank you very much, the Fed boosts these items that people need to go to their work, to heat their homes, and so forth and at the same time, asset prices go up, but the majority of people do not own stocks. Only 11% of Americans own directly shares.
On September 14, 2012, when the Fed announced QE3, that was then extended into QE4, and now basically QE unlimited, the bond markets had peaked out. Interest rates had bottomed out on July 25, 2012--a year ago--at 1.43% on the 10-year Treasury note. Mr. Bernanke said at that time at a press conference, the objective of the Fed is to lower interest rates. Since then, they have doubled. Thank you very much. Great success.
Well, the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10%, they will print even more. And they don't know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate. bloomberg
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On September 19 2013 12:07 sam!zdat wrote: what am I supposed to call it?
what a stressful day. I should get off tl before I get warned again. Time to eat something, get drunk, and have dan dennett explain consciousness to me. Goodbye everyone
Coffee peons?
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On September 19 2013 12:41 Danglars wrote:We live in the upside down world when every good economic news indicator is met with panic and sell-offs. It might cause the fed to stop QE∞, after all. It's all backwards until the injection ends (Injection might not be the right word considering its length, maybe life support IV?). Slow and then end QE and let the markets go back to reality. He may be the author of the "Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report," but Mark Faber lays it out, Show nested quote +My view was that they would taper by about $10 billion to $15 billion, but I'm not surprised that they don't do it for the simple reason that I think we are in QE unlimited. The people at the Fed are professors, academics. They never worked a single life in the business of ordinary people. And they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people maybe--not even 5% of the population, 3% of the population. And when you look today at the market action, ok, stocks are up 1%. Silver is up more than 6%, gold up more than 4%, copper 2.9%, crude oil 2.68%, and so forth. Crude oil, gasoline are things people need, ordinary people buy everyday. Thank you very much, the Fed boosts these items that people need to go to their work, to heat their homes, and so forth and at the same time, asset prices go up, but the majority of people do not own stocks. Only 11% of Americans own directly shares.
On September 14, 2012, when the Fed announced QE3, that was then extended into QE4, and now basically QE unlimited, the bond markets had peaked out. Interest rates had bottomed out on July 25, 2012--a year ago--at 1.43% on the 10-year Treasury note. Mr. Bernanke said at that time at a press conference, the objective of the Fed is to lower interest rates. Since then, they have doubled. Thank you very much. Great success.
Well, the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10%, they will print even more. And they don't know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate. bloomberg Faber has been calling for hyper inflation and collapse for the last 5 years.
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From April to July 2013, the number of employed youth 16 to 24 years old increased by 2.1 million to 19.7 million, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This year, the share of young people employed in July was 50.7 percent. (The month of July typically is the summertime peak in youth employment.) Unemployment among youth rose by 692,000 from April to July 2013, compared with an increase of 836,000 for the same period in 2012. (Because this analysis focuses on the seasonal changes in youth employment and unemployment that occur each spring and summer, the data are not seasonally adjusted.)
...
The labor force participation rate for all youth—-the proportion of the population 16 to 24 years old working or looking for work--was 60.5 percent in July, the same as a year earlier. Taking a longer-term perspective, the July 2013 participation rate was 17.0 percentage points below the peak rate for that month in 1989 (77.5 percent). (See table 2.)
Source
Youth unemployment is roughly 16%. The real problem is a mixture of college expenses and low job prospects. Most youth have a choice to either enter at the very bottom of the workforce (or near bottom with a bachelor's degree), or continue in school with debt that will prevent them from fully realizing their education advantage in income. This will trickle down to the future of the economy in predictably bad ways, mainly in the "lack of skills" department.
However, there is also the possibility that this situation could breed a second "Greatest Generation" (minus the World War). With people being forced to find a purpose outside of a "stable career," we're likely to see much more innovation and attempts to "make it on your own." Those could be a recipe for greatness.
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On September 19 2013 13:18 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2013 12:41 Danglars wrote:We live in the upside down world when every good economic news indicator is met with panic and sell-offs. It might cause the fed to stop QE∞, after all. It's all backwards until the injection ends (Injection might not be the right word considering its length, maybe life support IV?). Slow and then end QE and let the markets go back to reality. He may be the author of the "Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report," but Mark Faber lays it out, My view was that they would taper by about $10 billion to $15 billion, but I'm not surprised that they don't do it for the simple reason that I think we are in QE unlimited. The people at the Fed are professors, academics. They never worked a single life in the business of ordinary people. And they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people maybe--not even 5% of the population, 3% of the population. And when you look today at the market action, ok, stocks are up 1%. Silver is up more than 6%, gold up more than 4%, copper 2.9%, crude oil 2.68%, and so forth. Crude oil, gasoline are things people need, ordinary people buy everyday. Thank you very much, the Fed boosts these items that people need to go to their work, to heat their homes, and so forth and at the same time, asset prices go up, but the majority of people do not own stocks. Only 11% of Americans own directly shares.
On September 14, 2012, when the Fed announced QE3, that was then extended into QE4, and now basically QE unlimited, the bond markets had peaked out. Interest rates had bottomed out on July 25, 2012--a year ago--at 1.43% on the 10-year Treasury note. Mr. Bernanke said at that time at a press conference, the objective of the Fed is to lower interest rates. Since then, they have doubled. Thank you very much. Great success.
Well, the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10%, they will print even more. And they don't know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate. bloomberg Faber has been calling for hyper inflation and collapse for the last 5 years. It's funny because the interest rates didn't start climbing until we started hearing rumors about a taper, and then the Fed laid out a plan for the taper. Since then, the markets have assumed that the Fed had abandoned the economy to the same degree that the Capitol had.
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SAN FRANCISCO — A panel of federal judges on Wednesday upheld California's first-in-the-nation mandate requiring fuel producers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
A three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday rejected arguments from fuel makers that California's "Low Carbon Fuel Standard" discriminated against out-of-state producers.
The ruling reverses a U.S. District Court ruling in favor of the plaintiffs, and removes an injunction that at one point halted implementation of the law.
The California Air Resources Board, the agency in charge of implementing the standard, appealed, and was able to continue implementing the law while the case was being heard.
"This is a very good step for Californians and the fight against climate change," Dave Clegern, a spokesman for the board, said in an email.
"We are pleased, on behalf of the people of California and its environment, that the Court recognized the importance of this program and that the (standard) remains in effect."
The low carbon fuel standard is a key piece of California's landmark global warming law, AB 32, and is meant to cut the state's dependence on petroleum by 20 percent and account for one-tenth of the state's goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
Charles Drevna, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, said in a statement he was disappointed by the ruling and that the group was considering further legal action.
Source
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On September 19 2013 13:18 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2013 12:41 Danglars wrote:We live in the upside down world when every good economic news indicator is met with panic and sell-offs. It might cause the fed to stop QE∞, after all. It's all backwards until the injection ends (Injection might not be the right word considering its length, maybe life support IV?). Slow and then end QE and let the markets go back to reality. He may be the author of the "Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report," but Mark Faber lays it out, My view was that they would taper by about $10 billion to $15 billion, but I'm not surprised that they don't do it for the simple reason that I think we are in QE unlimited. The people at the Fed are professors, academics. They never worked a single life in the business of ordinary people. And they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people maybe--not even 5% of the population, 3% of the population. And when you look today at the market action, ok, stocks are up 1%. Silver is up more than 6%, gold up more than 4%, copper 2.9%, crude oil 2.68%, and so forth. Crude oil, gasoline are things people need, ordinary people buy everyday. Thank you very much, the Fed boosts these items that people need to go to their work, to heat their homes, and so forth and at the same time, asset prices go up, but the majority of people do not own stocks. Only 11% of Americans own directly shares.
On September 14, 2012, when the Fed announced QE3, that was then extended into QE4, and now basically QE unlimited, the bond markets had peaked out. Interest rates had bottomed out on July 25, 2012--a year ago--at 1.43% on the 10-year Treasury note. Mr. Bernanke said at that time at a press conference, the objective of the Fed is to lower interest rates. Since then, they have doubled. Thank you very much. Great success.
Well, the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10%, they will print even more. And they don't know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate. bloomberg Faber has been calling for hyper inflation and collapse for the last 5 years. Financial experts and various economists have been dismissing anything wrong with the principal of QE for far longer. You disagree with his benefit analysis, interest rate analysis, or market feedback analysis or just dislike the identity of the guy giving it? I'm not going to go down the line on everything he correctly predicted in the last ten years.
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On September 19 2013 11:17 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2013 10:56 sam!zdat wrote: because we're locked into a hostage situation where if we stop printing money the market will crash and our money printing is not doing anything except inflating asset bubbles and we have no end in sight and no way out and no plan at all!
and we have a government in open revolt that has not done anything at all in years except pass a terrible terrible healthcare law! And they are all corrupt! And we have more and more students with more and more debt every year who will never have jobs! I don't see how there's a 'hostage situation' since printing money isn't hurting you. There's certainly a way out, and a plan to get there. As the economy improves the Fed will slow down it's purchases. If it needs to it will sell what it bought, or let its supply of assets fall as they mature. Student debt is a problem, but it would be worse if interest rates on that debt were higher. Those students will eventually get jobs too. The economy hasn't radically changed that much in the last 5 years. Take a little historical perspective here, we've had times where job creation was slow before and we've gotten past it.
Off course printing monney is hurting people,it would be nice if we could just create real wealth by simply printing 100 dollar notes but that does not seem realistic. Its hurting them through the mechanism of inflation, and once the fed will slow down all prices will stabelise at a higher level then before. This mostly hurts retired people who have alot of safings and who dont work annymore, so they cant make up for the inflation by for example rising wages.(wages rise alot less then inflation annyway but at least its some compensation)
The government does it best to keep official inflation figures artificially low with new means of calculation and completely irrealistic weighting factors but every citizen can feel the inflation in its wallet every day during the past 10 years. For example: you now need double the amount of monney (if not more) to buy a house in a decent area then you did in 2002, thats 100% inflation in 10 years wich is like 7% a year? (and people spend more on a house then they consume in like 20 years of their life, so houses should realisticly have a weighting factor of like 30%) And if your not buying a house you are not escaping inflation either, because rents in decent areas have more then doubled as well. Cost of healthcare has also skyrocketed, and prices of fresh fruit and quality meat also have doubled in the past 10 years. New cars have became alot more expensive as well. The government avoids this in the inflation figures by replacing such items with lower quality factory produced alternatives and aplying "hedonic" pricing mechanism. Only thing not rising in price are electronic consumer goods,productivity in that sector still increases alot and china is able to mass produce them for verry cheap for us.
What new bubble are we creating? A new credit bubble Maybe its more preventing the earlier created bubble from busting then realy creating a new one. I do agree though that qe also achieves a few good things, besides postponing the inevitable (wich is always a good thing lol) the flow of monney is also good for consumer confidence and it creates opportunities for new business to try grab some of all this monney. It is creating activity wich is always a good thing.
Faber is a notorious bear, he always is negative. Its his trademark. You just have to take that into account when listening to him.
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On September 19 2013 12:41 Danglars wrote:We live in the upside down world when every good economic news indicator is met with panic and sell-offs. It might cause the fed to stop QE∞, after all. It's all backwards until the injection ends (Injection might not be the right word considering its length, maybe life support IV?). Slow and then end QE and let the markets go back to reality. He may be the author of the "Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report," but Mark Faber lays it out, Show nested quote +My view was that they would taper by about $10 billion to $15 billion, but I'm not surprised that they don't do it for the simple reason that I think we are in QE unlimited. The people at the Fed are professors, academics. They never worked a single life in the business of ordinary people. And they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people maybe--not even 5% of the population, 3% of the population. And when you look today at the market action, ok, stocks are up 1%. Silver is up more than 6%, gold up more than 4%, copper 2.9%, crude oil 2.68%, and so forth. Crude oil, gasoline are things people need, ordinary people buy everyday. Thank you very much, the Fed boosts these items that people need to go to their work, to heat their homes, and so forth and at the same time, asset prices go up, but the majority of people do not own stocks. Only 11% of Americans own directly shares.
On September 14, 2012, when the Fed announced QE3, that was then extended into QE4, and now basically QE unlimited, the bond markets had peaked out. Interest rates had bottomed out on July 25, 2012--a year ago--at 1.43% on the 10-year Treasury note. Mr. Bernanke said at that time at a press conference, the objective of the Fed is to lower interest rates. Since then, they have doubled. Thank you very much. Great success.
Well, the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10%, they will print even more. And they don't know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate. bloomberg Completely wrong. In the quote, the author says that the Fed is boosting the price of things people need like oil and gasoline. But while the Fed has control over the domestic price level, they have very limited effect on oil and gas prices. Oil and gas prices are mostly determined by global supply and demand. In fact, core inflation strips out these prices because they are volatile, core inflation is a better predictor of longer run-inflation, and because the Fed has little control over them.
Then it talks about the Fed raising asset prices which benefits the rich, but not most ordinary people. It's probably true that QE disproportionately benefits the rich, as the Bank of England has found. But to a lesser extent, QE benefits everyone by strengthening the economy and increasing employment. More importantly, the Fed's powers are limited in scope. They are doing QE because that's the tool they legally have. Policy actions that would benefit the poor more than the rich would involve fiscal policy: more government spending and more government transfers. But Congress is paralyzed by inaction due to Republican obstructionism (another debt ceiling showdown soon), so the Fed is doing what they can.
Lastly, the author mentions the wrong interest rate. The interest rate on government bonds have increased due to taper-talk. But the Fed is not targeting those interest rates. They're trying to lower the interest rate at which banks and firms lend money, to create a lower interest rate environment, so that there is more lending by banks, and hence more investment and employment.
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On September 19 2013 15:44 Rassy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2013 11:17 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On September 19 2013 10:56 sam!zdat wrote: because we're locked into a hostage situation where if we stop printing money the market will crash and our money printing is not doing anything except inflating asset bubbles and we have no end in sight and no way out and no plan at all!
and we have a government in open revolt that has not done anything at all in years except pass a terrible terrible healthcare law! And they are all corrupt! And we have more and more students with more and more debt every year who will never have jobs! I don't see how there's a 'hostage situation' since printing money isn't hurting you. There's certainly a way out, and a plan to get there. As the economy improves the Fed will slow down it's purchases. If it needs to it will sell what it bought, or let its supply of assets fall as they mature. Student debt is a problem, but it would be worse if interest rates on that debt were higher. Those students will eventually get jobs too. The economy hasn't radically changed that much in the last 5 years. Take a little historical perspective here, we've had times where job creation was slow before and we've gotten past it. Off course printing monney is hurting people,it would be nice if we could just create real wealth by simply printing 100 dollar notes but that does not seem realistic. Its hurting them through the mechanism of inflation, and once the fed will slow down all prices will stabelise at a higher level then before. This mostly hurts retired people who have alot of safings and who dont work annymore, so they cant make up for the inflation by for example rising wages.(wages rise alot less then inflation annyway but at least its some compensation) The government does it best to keep official inflation figures artificially low with new means of calculation and completely irrealistic weighting factors but every citizen can feel the inflation in its wallet every day during the past 10 years. For example: you now need double the amount of monney (if not more) to buy a house in a decent area then you did in 2002, thats 100% inflation in 10 years wich is like 7% a year? (and people spend more on a house then they consume in like 20 years of their life, so houses should realisticly have a weighting factor of like 30%) And if your not buying a house you are not escaping inflation either, because rents in decent areas have more then doubled as well. Cost of healthcare has also skyrocketed, and prices of fresh fruit and quality meat also have doubled in the past 10 years. New cars have became alot more expensive as well. The government avoids this in the inflation figures by replacing such items with lower quality factory produced alternatives and aplying "hedonic" pricing mechanism. Only thing not rising in price are electronic consumer goods,productivity in that sector still increases alot and china is able to mass produce them for verry cheap for us. What new bubble are we creating? A new credit bubble Maybe its more preventing the earlier created bubble from busting then realy creating a new one. I do agree though that qe also achieves a few good things, besides postponing the inevitable (wich is always a good thing lol) the flow of monney is also good for consumer confidence and it creates opportunities for new business to try grab some of all this monney. It is creating activity wich is always a good thing. Faber is a notorious bear, he always is negative. Its his trademark. You just have to take that into account when listening to him. There's no inflation. Inflation is below the Fed's 2% target and trending down. Latest data here.
Also, this.
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Instead of looking at the official figures you should look at your wallet and what you pay for things like quality meat, fresh fruit, rent, healthcare, energy, beers and cofee in bars/cofeeshops. Then compare that with what you paid 5/10 years ago for thoose items. Usa had below 2% inflation for the past 10 years yet all thoose things nearly doubled in price.
How much did your rent and electricity bills go up in the past 5 years and what percentage of your income do you spend on rent and gas/electricity?
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Don't look at trends and numbers. Just go with what it feeeels like.Then blame those bad feelings on the FED. Right.
In lighter news, Federal Appeals Court has Ruled Facebook Likes are Free Speech
In this case, employees of a Virginia sheriff who was running for reelection were fired for "liking" the sheriff’s opponent’s webpage on Facebook and taking other actions to indicate their support for the opponent. The district court judge ruled last year that pressing a button does not involve "enough speech" and that "liking" something is not a sufficiently "substantive statement" to warrant First Amendment protection. Fortunately, the appeals court rejected this argument, finding that “liking” a page is both pure speech expressing support as well as symbolic expression via the "universally understood 'thumbs up' symbol."
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On September 19 2013 19:35 Rassy wrote: Instead of looking at the official figures you should look at your wallet and what you pay for things like quality meat, fresh fruit, rent, healthcare, energy, beers and cofee in bars/cofeeshops. Then compare that with what you paid 5/10 years ago for thoose items. Usa had below 2% inflation for the past 10 years yet all thoose things nearly doubled in price.
How much did your rent and electricity bills go up in the past 5 years and what percentage of your income do you spend on rent and gas/electricity?
Idk, StarCraft 2 was like $60 4-5 years ago and now it's only $20! Massive deflation IMO.
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On September 19 2013 08:09 DoubleReed wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2013 07:50 WhiteDog wrote: A little inflation could be a good thing, and for that I support Krugman's point. But sam is truly hitting the nail when he says that "the new economy doesn't need people". It is even more true if the fed continue to give free capital by pushing the interest rate so low : what's the point of paying men if capital is so cheap that you can buy a machine or two for the price of a worker ? Stiglitz actually mentionned that a year ago, when he argued that with such low interest rates, we might see a jobless recovery. Er... haven't people been saying that since like 1920? Do you think the interest rate was below 0% in the nineteenth century ? I'm not making a case against innovations overall, not that I completly disagree with sam's point, but I'm just pointing out that today, we have a specific situation where the interest rate is REALLY low, and the interest rate is the price of capital. There are various reasons for why this interest rate is so low, and it is not always because of the Fed, but if you compare to 1920 - where the interest rate was around 4% if I reckon - the 0% to 0.25% interest rate that the fed is enforcing is a specificity of 2010.
I'm not even saying that having such a low interest rate is a bad thing - I'm just saying it has a trade off, and that is that we might see a jobless recovery.
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On September 19 2013 19:35 Rassy wrote: Instead of looking at the official figures you should look at your wallet and what you pay for things like quality meat, fresh fruit, rent, healthcare, energy, beers and cofee in bars/cofeeshops. Then compare that with what you paid 5/10 years ago for thoose items. Usa had below 2% inflation for the past 10 years yet all thoose things nearly doubled in price.
How much did your rent and electricity bills go up in the past 5 years and what percentage of your income do you spend on rent and gas/electricity?
Compared to about 5 years ago my rent is more expensive but gas is still a wee bit cheaper. Houses are cheaper. Beyond that I can't remember.
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It seems likes wages aren't ever gonna catch up to the inflation. So we feel poor in two ways now: when we buy and when we get paid
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On September 20 2013 00:51 crayhasissues wrote:It seems likes wages aren't ever gonna catch up to the inflation. So we feel poor in two ways now: when we buy and when we get paid  That's not the fault of the Fed though. The Fed is doing what it needs to do, with a slight hiccup this year with talks of tapering. However, they can't hire people by the thousands or millions. As long as there are a lot of people unemployed, wages will have a downward trend.
In other news, if anybody is paying attention to mortgage rates, they just took a nosedive after the Fed announcement. Very good news. Maybe we'll eventually get back down to pre-June levels in a couple of months...
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On September 19 2013 22:03 DoubleReed wrote:Don't look at trends and numbers. Just go with what it feeeels like.Then blame those bad feelings on the FED. Right. In lighter news, Federal Appeals Court has Ruled Facebook Likes are Free SpeechShow nested quote +In this case, employees of a Virginia sheriff who was running for reelection were fired for "liking" the sheriff’s opponent’s webpage on Facebook and taking other actions to indicate their support for the opponent. The district court judge ruled last year that pressing a button does not involve "enough speech" and that "liking" something is not a sufficiently "substantive statement" to warrant First Amendment protection. Fortunately, the appeals court rejected this argument, finding that “liking” a page is both pure speech expressing support as well as symbolic expression via the "universally understood 'thumbs up' symbol."
Thats a verry wrong interpretation of my last 2 posts lol.
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On September 19 2013 19:35 Rassy wrote: Instead of looking at the official figures you should look at your wallet and what you pay for things like quality meat, fresh fruit, rent, healthcare, energy, beers and cofee in bars/cofeeshops. Then compare that with what you paid 5/10 years ago for thoose items. Usa had below 2% inflation for the past 10 years yet all thoose things nearly doubled in price.
How much did your rent and electricity bills go up in the past 5 years and what percentage of your income do you spend on rent and gas/electricity?
Pfft, way to not use obvious examples. Remember how big title video games used to be $30 about 10 or 11 years ago? $60 flat now.
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I remember reading somewhere that they've changed the measure of inflation and if we used the old one we'd have much more of it. Anyone know abt that (during that time I moved from portland to seattle and that will make anyone feel like there must be a ton of inflation, so my subjective recollections kinda meaningless!)
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