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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3436

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
March 23 2016 10:24 GMT
#68701
GOP doesn't have much choice, its either Cruz or Trump and at least Cruz is a predictable idiot that they can control more.

Please clap.
WriterXiao8~~
Soularion
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
Canada2764 Posts
March 23 2016 10:50 GMT
#68702
Hmm. Well. Across the entire week - therefor including Democrats Abroad - Sanders actually holds onto about a ~55% delegate lead as of right now. That's not quite what he wanted, but if he were to significantly overperform in Washington to the degree that he did in Idaho/Utah then this race is going to New York quite evenly. If he would've won Arizona, it would've been a /huge/ night for him.
Writermaru pls
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 11:56:53
March 23 2016 11:43 GMT
#68703
So, someone correct me if I'm wrong but Sanders got about 4 points above Clinton when measured in delegates. So how does that change the target for the rest of the campaign. It's above 58 now, but can anyone find an estimate from an official source?

Edit: LOL at GH calling someone out for being partisan. That's like Trump levels of lack of self-reflection.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
PassiveAce
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States18076 Posts
March 23 2016 12:36 GMT
#68704
Sanders wont win but he and his supporters will have a voice in Clinton's administration.
The fact is that more democratic primary voters prefer clinton to sanders.
Call me Marge Simpson cuz I love you homie
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 13:13:17
March 23 2016 12:46 GMT
#68705
On March 23 2016 19:50 Soularion wrote:
Hmm. Well. Across the entire week - therefor including Democrats Abroad - Sanders actually holds onto about a ~55% delegate lead as of right now. That's not quite what he wanted, but if he were to significantly overperform in Washington to the degree that he did in Idaho/Utah then this race is going to New York quite evenly. If he would've won Arizona, it would've been a /huge/ night for him.

Assuming delegate distribution stays proportional, the final results will probably be something like:
Arizona: Clinton 45 Sanders 30
Utah: Sanders 26 Clinton 7
Idaho: Sanders 17 Clinton 6
Democrats abroad: Sanders 9 Clinton 4

That's about 57%?

Edit: fixed a number
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
Soularion
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
Canada2764 Posts
March 23 2016 12:52 GMT
#68706
On March 23 2016 21:46 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 19:50 Soularion wrote:
Hmm. Well. Across the entire week - therefor including Democrats Abroad - Sanders actually holds onto about a ~55% delegate lead as of right now. That's not quite what he wanted, but if he were to significantly overperform in Washington to the degree that he did in Idaho/Utah then this race is going to New York quite evenly. If he would've won Arizona, it would've been a /huge/ night for him.

Assuming delegate distribution stays proportional, the final results will probably be something like:
Arizona: Clinton 44 Sanders 31
Utah: Sanders 26 Clinton 7
Idaho: Sanders 17 Clinton 6
Democrats abroad: Sanders 9 Clinton 4

That's about 57.6%?


Where do you get the Arizona stat from? NYtimes has it at Clinton 41 Sanders 22 at the moment.
Writermaru pls
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
March 23 2016 12:52 GMT
#68707
Bush endorsing Cruz is hilarious. That essentially signals that Kasich is out of the race and does not have establishment support going into the convention, right?
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 23 2016 13:02 GMT
#68708
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 13:22:52
March 23 2016 13:22 GMT
#68709
Imo the Bernie platform should about the future (not that the election is dead). Clinton is a brand, Bernie is an old man with ideas, but what will stay of those ideas in five years if he is not able to present himself again ? ten years ? Is there anyone that could take his political legacy and built it has an institutional current within the democrat party ? On the other hand, there will always be another Clinton.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 23 2016 13:40 GMT
#68710
sandernistas is really strong in rural white places with not much contact with modern world
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 23 2016 13:42 GMT
#68711
On March 23 2016 22:22 WhiteDog wrote:
Imo the Bernie platform should about the future (not that the election is dead). Clinton is a brand, Bernie is an old man with ideas, but what will stay of those ideas in five years if he is not able to present himself again ? ten years ? Is there anyone that could take his political legacy and built it has an institutional current within the democrat party ? On the other hand, there will always be another Clinton.

bernie doesnt even want to be a democrat and you expect him to build party institution? guy is only surviving for so long because vermont
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
March 23 2016 13:49 GMT
#68712
On March 23 2016 22:42 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 22:22 WhiteDog wrote:
Imo the Bernie platform should about the future (not that the election is dead). Clinton is a brand, Bernie is an old man with ideas, but what will stay of those ideas in five years if he is not able to present himself again ? ten years ? Is there anyone that could take his political legacy and built it has an institutional current within the democrat party ? On the other hand, there will always be another Clinton.

bernie doesnt even want to be a democrat and you expect him to build party institution? guy is only surviving for so long because vermont


He may not be much of a democrat himself, but his message is inspiring a lot of democrats. It's hard to ignore the fact that a significant portion of our party supports a lot of his ideas. A lot of people aren't focusing on feasibility and instead making it clear they want the country to head a different direction. I think it's a fair point to make. I definitely think Sanders will continue to have a lasting impact.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22702 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 13:53:38
March 23 2016 13:53 GMT
#68713
On March 23 2016 21:46 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 19:50 Soularion wrote:
Hmm. Well. Across the entire week - therefor including Democrats Abroad - Sanders actually holds onto about a ~55% delegate lead as of right now. That's not quite what he wanted, but if he were to significantly overperform in Washington to the degree that he did in Idaho/Utah then this race is going to New York quite evenly. If he would've won Arizona, it would've been a /huge/ night for him.

Assuming delegate distribution stays proportional, the final results will probably be something like:
Arizona: Clinton 45 Sanders 30
Utah: Sanders 26 Clinton 7
Idaho: Sanders 17 Clinton 6
Democrats abroad: Sanders 9 Clinton 4

That's about 57%?

Edit: fixed a number

So he did the bare minimum needed, not a good night but a 'good enough'.

(assuming the 58-42 split required to win the majority)
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
March 23 2016 13:53 GMT
#68714
Paves way for an easy Elizabeth Warren challenge to Clinton 2020 hype?!

i'm just kidding

or am I.
WriterXiao8~~
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 14:19:34
March 23 2016 13:56 GMT
#68715
the core of his ideas is not going to happen because it runs straight into the current international economic and diplomatic system. this is simply the interconnected nature of the world making isolationist turnarounds hugely costly. bernie is simply not representing a workable direction for the party. a bernie groupie is a direct repudiation of obama's legacy, not a continuation.


only positive influence may be to talk hillary out of starting some land wars but id hope RAND is already doing that


domestically i see some pure tax and spend from bernie. this is also not good enough and is out of the 1950's in tax policy. if he wants to accomplish some lasting change for the long term push for transparency related issues in international tax and accounting
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 23 2016 14:02 GMT
#68716
I doubt Hillary is going to go out and start a land war for shits and giggles.

Liberal internationalism
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Soularion
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
Canada2764 Posts
March 23 2016 14:10 GMT
#68717
On March 23 2016 22:53 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 21:46 The_Templar wrote:
On March 23 2016 19:50 Soularion wrote:
Hmm. Well. Across the entire week - therefor including Democrats Abroad - Sanders actually holds onto about a ~55% delegate lead as of right now. That's not quite what he wanted, but if he were to significantly overperform in Washington to the degree that he did in Idaho/Utah then this race is going to New York quite evenly. If he would've won Arizona, it would've been a /huge/ night for him.

Assuming delegate distribution stays proportional, the final results will probably be something like:
Arizona: Clinton 45 Sanders 30
Utah: Sanders 26 Clinton 7
Idaho: Sanders 17 Clinton 6
Democrats abroad: Sanders 9 Clinton 4

That's about 57%?

Edit: fixed a number

So he did the bare minimum needed, not a good night but a 'good enough'.

(assuming the 58-42 split required to win the majority)

which is fine considering how bad Arizona looked for him. Tonight should be enough to push him towards New York, where he needs to win (or at least come close) which is the big test for him. Well, first big test
Writermaru pls
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 14:17:16
March 23 2016 14:16 GMT
#68718
On March 23 2016 23:02 ticklishmusic wrote:
I doubt Hillary is going to go out and start a land war for shits and giggles.

Liberal internationalism

4+4 years is a long time. she would have intervened in a couple places already, although probably not bad decisions in hindsight.

We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 14:22:43
March 23 2016 14:22 GMT
#68719
On March 23 2016 23:10 Soularion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 22:53 Gorsameth wrote:
On March 23 2016 21:46 The_Templar wrote:
On March 23 2016 19:50 Soularion wrote:
Hmm. Well. Across the entire week - therefor including Democrats Abroad - Sanders actually holds onto about a ~55% delegate lead as of right now. That's not quite what he wanted, but if he were to significantly overperform in Washington to the degree that he did in Idaho/Utah then this race is going to New York quite evenly. If he would've won Arizona, it would've been a /huge/ night for him.

Assuming delegate distribution stays proportional, the final results will probably be something like:
Arizona: Clinton 45 Sanders 30
Utah: Sanders 26 Clinton 7
Idaho: Sanders 17 Clinton 6
Democrats abroad: Sanders 9 Clinton 4

That's about 57%?

Edit: fixed a number

So he did the bare minimum needed, not a good night but a 'good enough'.

(assuming the 58-42 split required to win the majority)

which is fine considering how bad Arizona looked for him. Tonight should be enough to push him towards New York, where he needs to win (or at least come close) which is the big test for him. Well, first big test

Not sure how the polls look(or whether they should be trusted) but Clinton is a two-time New York Senator and NY has a significant minority, would be a HUGE upset if she doesn't win this (if any she might win this by a landslide).
WriterXiao8~~
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6326 Posts
March 23 2016 14:23 GMT
#68720
On March 23 2016 21:52 Mohdoo wrote:
Bush endorsing Cruz is hilarious. That essentially signals that Kasich is out of the race and does not have establishment support going into the convention, right?

Was he actually ever in the race? He should've dropped out way earlier. That might have given Rubio a chance to challenge Trump/Cruz as well.
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