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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
whatisthisasheep
Profile Joined April 2015
624 Posts
July 24 2015 06:26 GMT
#42561
On July 24 2015 14:38 GreenHorizons wrote:
Speaking of terrorism (except in this country) there was yet another mass shooting (not to be confused with the one in court).

Show nested quote +
A man opened fire inside a movie theater in a Lafayette, Louisiana, multiplex, Thursday night, killing two people and wounding seven others -- before taking his own life.

"There's nothing to believe that there was any kind of motive," said Col. Michael Edmonson of the Louisiana State Police.

The shooter was a 58-year-old white man who was a theater patron, police said. Authorities have his name but are withholding it as the investigation continues.

The shooting took place shortly before 8:30 p.m ET at the Grand Theatre 16 in Lafayette, a city of about 120,000 people, 60 miles west of Baton Rouge.

About 100 people were inside the theater for a screening of the comedy, "Trainwreck," when the shooter began firing using a handgun, police said.


Source

Most likely just a copycat who has been watching the trial obsessively and wants to have his 15 seconds of fame
Please help me get in contact with the Pats organization because I'd love to personally deflate Tom's balls.
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
July 24 2015 06:35 GMT
#42562
On July 24 2015 14:38 GreenHorizons wrote:
Speaking of terrorism (except in this country) there was yet another mass shooting (not to be confused with the one in court).

Show nested quote +
A man opened fire inside a movie theater in a Lafayette, Louisiana, multiplex, Thursday night, killing two people and wounding seven others -- before taking his own life.

"There's nothing to believe that there was any kind of motive," said Col. Michael Edmonson of the Louisiana State Police.

The shooter was a 58-year-old white man who was a theater patron, police said. Authorities have his name but are withholding it as the investigation continues.

The shooting took place shortly before 8:30 p.m ET at the Grand Theatre 16 in Lafayette, a city of about 120,000 people, 60 miles west of Baton Rouge.

About 100 people were inside the theater for a screening of the comedy, "Trainwreck," when the shooter began firing using a handgun, police said.


Source


sad that it feels pretty routine now
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-24 06:54:13
July 24 2015 06:53 GMT
#42563
On July 24 2015 14:43 lastpuritan wrote:
I personally think there is no difference between Iran and Israel having nukes. It is always fun to watch every country on the table has those warheads except Iran. No man can convince me that any of those countries will never use these "tools" against Iran or any enemy, but even if they use it, we will be inclined to believe it was the inevitable choice.


I think the difference is that Israel has no way to deliver nukes to its enemies while having plausible deniability. That Hamas/Hezzbola/Al Qaeda/etc (and the difficulty for Western intelligence to determine which caused the attack) might have access to a black market nuke means that the West+Israel is consistently vulnerable to an anonymous attack.

The terrorist connections, IMO, are a bigger priority than nuclear capabilities. Particularly with regards to Israel, because I have noticed a huge surge in Antisemitism in Europe.
Freeeeeeedom
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
July 24 2015 08:23 GMT
#42564
HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Firefighters on Thursday braced for a fresh run by a wildfire that sent tourists fleeing from hotels and campgrounds in Montana's Glacier National Park, while a blaze threatening hundreds of homes in Northern California shot flames 100 feet in the air.

Both states are ravaged by drought, and rising temperatures and strengthening winds greeted newly arrived crews taking aim at the blaze in the Northern Rocky Mountains. It has burned more than 6 square miles along the eastern side of the Montana park during prime tourist season, when lodges and inns have been booked for months.

Some visitors packed up and left the region immediately after seeing smoke rising above ridge tops, while others diverted to different parts of the park. Officials said only a small part of Glacier's 1,718 square miles have been closed by the fire, and most of its top attractions on the east and west sides are still open.

The fire ignited Tuesday and then swept along ridges near the scenic Going-to-the-Sun Road, the park's most popular roadway, heading toward the small community of St. Mary on the park's eastern boundary.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-24 11:37:04
July 24 2015 09:51 GMT
#42565
On July 24 2015 12:41 Mercy13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2015 10:32 always_winter wrote:
To be honest I think the best counter-argument is the effect economic sanctions have on anti-Western ideology; as a vehicle driving opposition to the West which becomes indoctrinated and handed down from generation to generation. In that regard it's hard to find common ground with people who have been taught to hate you, but not impossible.

The internet is a magnificent beast. The unprecedented flow of information is an invaluable source of inter-cultural understanding and genuine human progression. I think a progressive movement is already taking root in Iran, not only in spite of these sanctions but BECAUSE of these sanctions, coupled with the age of information which has allowed them to see this world absent a jaded lens. I believe we're best suited to wait for our contemporaries to take power, rather than force history upon the unwilling and risk the consequences.

Edit: Israel is perhaps the most unwilling of all state actors, an intricate piece of the puzzle which has already choreographed air strikes in the event of American abandonment and Iranian nuclear achievement.

I'd also add to that point, as clarification, that I believe the sanctions, from so many thriving Western nations, are fueling revolutionary thought processes within Iranian youth, in which they understand the extreme limitations of a reclusive state and wish to participate on the world stage. I believe they see a commonality among global youth and a common ground from which to leap forward. In that regard I'm an optimist. In a million others I'm a dedicated pessimist. But yea, you raise a valid point and it's easily the best counter argument, but we live in an age capable of overcoming generational indoctrination.

Below is another valid point, but think anti-establishment Germans during the Nazi regime. I'd be hesitant to draw too many parallels, but it certainly illustrates the point that reason can overcome indoctrination and propaganda, and we have far more tools at our disposal to do so now as opposed to the 1930's.


Can you provide a link to a non-proliferation expert who thinks the deal is bad? I haven't been able to find a single one.

That's because the people who are actually knowledgeable on the issue know it's a good deal, contrary to the people who have zero clue about non-proliferation and oppose the deal for ideological reasons.

This article by non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis sums it up pretty well. Note that he was initially skeptical the U.S. would reach a good deal with Iran, but the facts are there. It is a good deal. There is nothing in the agreement that makes it easier for Iran to get a nuclear weapon, and everything in it makes it harder for them to get one. It is unambiguously an improvement compared to the current situation with sanctions, whatever the measure you want to use.

See also this article and this overview of experts' opinions.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
July 24 2015 11:22 GMT
#42566
As immigration and incarceration issues become central to the 2016 presidential campaign, lobbyists for two major prison companies are serving as top fundraisers for Hillary Clinton.

Corrections Corporation of America and the Geo Group could both see their fortunes turning if there are fewer people to lock up in the future.

Last week, Clinton and other candidates revealed a number of lobbyists who are serving as “bundlers” for their campaigns. Bundlers collect contributions on behalf of a campaign, and are often rewarded with special favors, such as access to the candidate.

Richard Sullivan, of the lobbying firm Capitol Counsel, is a bundler for the Clinton campaign, bringing in $44,859 in contributions in a few short months. Sullivan is also a registered lobbyist for the Geo Group, a company that operates a number of jails, including immigrant detention centers, for profit.

As we reported yesterday, fully five Clinton bundlers work for the lobbying and law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. Corrections Corporation of America, the largest private prison company in America, paid Akin Gump $240,000 in lobbying fees last year. The firm also serves as a law firm for the prison giant, representing the company in court.

Akin Gump lobbyist and Clinton bundler Brian Popper disclosed that he previously helped CCA defeat efforts to compel private prisons to respond to Freedom of Information Act requests.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18292 Posts
July 24 2015 11:24 GMT
#42567
On July 24 2015 13:39 LuckyFool wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2015 12:41 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 24 2015 10:32 always_winter wrote:
To be honest I think the best counter-argument is the effect economic sanctions have on anti-Western ideology; as a vehicle driving opposition to the West which becomes indoctrinated and handed down from generation to generation. In that regard it's hard to find common ground with people who have been taught to hate you, but not impossible.

The internet is a magnificent beast. The unprecedented flow of information is an invaluable source of inter-cultural understanding and genuine human progression. I think a progressive movement is already taking root in Iran, not only in spite of these sanctions but BECAUSE of these sanctions, coupled with the age of information which has allowed them to see this world absent a jaded lens. I believe we're best suited to wait for our contemporaries to take power, rather than force history upon the unwilling and risk the consequences.

Edit: Israel is perhaps the most unwilling of all state actors, an intricate piece of the puzzle which has already choreographed air strikes in the event of American abandonment and Iranian nuclear achievement.

I'd also add to that point, as clarification, that I believe the sanctions, from so many thriving Western nations, are fueling revolutionary thought processes within Iranian youth, in which they understand the extreme limitations of a reclusive state and wish to participate on the world stage. I believe they see a commonality among global youth and a common ground from which to leap forward. In that regard I'm an optimist. In a million others I'm a dedicated pessimist. But yea, you raise a valid point and it's easily the best counter argument, but we live in an age capable of overcoming generational indoctrination.

Below is another valid point, but think anti-establishment Germans during the Nazi regime. I'd be hesitant to draw too many parallels, but it certainly illustrates the point that reason can overcome indoctrination and propaganda, and we have far more tools at our disposal to do so now as opposed to the 1930's.


Can you provide a link to a non-proliferation expert who thinks the deal is bad? I haven't been able to find a single one.

The key points to consider when evaluating the deal are:
1. The sanctions slowed down Iran's nuclear program, but could not stop it completely. Without a deal the only way to prevent Iran from getting nukes would have been a war.
2. Keeping the sanctions on depended upon the support of the international community, particularly the UN and the EU. If we had not accepted a deal which the rest of the world views in a very favorable light, we would have lost that support. Most of the sanctions would have been lifted, and Iran would get to have its cake and eat it too (i.e., no sanctions, and an unfettered nuclear program)
3. If it looks like Iran is cheating, we can reimpose the sanctions with a relatively short delay, something like 30 days, with no ability for Russia or China or anyone else to block it.

The only criticism of the deal that I find credible is that it doesn't do anything to prevent Iran from continuing its nonsense in the Mideast, such as funding terrorist groups. However, from a purely non-proliferation perspective, it seems like the best deal we could have hoped for.

Anyway, I wonder if the GOP's blustering actually helped the negotiators?

Kerry: "Iran, I know your position on this point is reasonable, and I'd really just LOVE to give in on it, but you've heard all the screaming from the wingnuts in Congress right? If you don't give in on this, they will kill the deal no matter how stupid it would be to do so."


Most of the US allies in the middle east thinks the deal is bad. The Saudi's think it's bad, even the extreme left of Israel thinks the deal is bad. You don't see the left in Israel agreeing with Netanyahu very often.

My opinion; Lifting sanctions on Iran is a huge mistake. Iran getting $150 billion in mostly upfront sanctions relief is a colossal mistake. The short term destabilization that we could be enabling by lifting sanctions is more dangerous than the possibility Iran might or might not be on the way to a nuke. Anyone who thinks this money is going to be used primarily for education and economic purposes ought to study up on the current Iranian regime. I'm not saying all of Iran is corrupt, but some of the guys at the top for the past few decades are corrupt to the core, there is no room for someone who is openly supporting and funding terrorism. You'd have to be incredibly naive to think a guy like Ali Khamenei is going to stop preaching death to America now because of this deal. Why we would want to invite guys like that back into the community of nations makes no sense to me. Obama has been talking about getting a deal like this done before his presidency so clearly it was on his agenda of trademark things to get done. There could very well be alternative motives behind the deal that we'll never know either. But on the surface the deal looks really bad, filled with loopholes, ways for Iran to get out, side deals and a bunch of random convoluted details like having to give 2+ weeks notice before inspecting known enrichment sites. These details are going to cause major issues in congress when they eventually get to voting on it.

I don't know if it was linked previously but I highly recommend anyone who is interested, to read through the actual deal itself. Some of the clauses in it are beyond laughable in my opinion. Paragraph 36 literally gives Iran a way out of the deal at any time, all they have to do is file a complaint to the joint commission, reject any possible resolution, and are free to walk away from the deal IN WHOLE.

The US doesn't even get anything out of this other than hopes and dreams Iran will clean up their act. I honestly hope they do but we haven't seen any change in over 30 years now.


Thinking the deal is bad from an ideological standpoint is different from thinking the deal is bad from a non-proliferation standpoint, and for some reason, people (particularly politicians opposing the deal) think it is okay to conflate the two.

You can think the deal is good from a non-proliferation standpoint and still think the deal is bad, because it allows Iran to continue dicking around, and expanding their influence, in the middle-east, by funding Hezbollah (and the Syrian regime), "helping" Iraq fight ISIS and whatever the fuck they are doing in Yemen or elsewhere. However, it is quite clear that the sanctions weren't stopping Iran from doing any of that anywah, so /shrug.

From a non-proliferation standpoint, all experts think it is a good deal.

Israel, Saudi Arabia and other allies in the M.E. think it's a bad deal because they are rabidly opposed to anything that might help Iran in the long term (note, not help Iran get a bomb, but help Iran in general).
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
July 24 2015 11:30 GMT
#42568
NEW YORK (AP) — Anthem is buying rival Cigna for $48 billion in a deal that would create the nation's largest health insurer by enrollment, covering about 53 million U.S patients.

In just three weeks, starting with Aetna's $35 billion bid for Humana Inc. on July 3, the landscape of U.S. health care has been altered in a buyout frenzy that could transform five massive U.S. health companies into just three, including UnitedHealth Group.

Companies that provide coverage are adjusting to the national health care overhaul and must contend with slow growth in employer-sponsored health insurance, a massive chunk of the health care market.

The deal announced Friday is valued at $54.2 billion including debt. Shareholders of Cigna, based in Bloomfield, Connecticut, will receive $103.40 per share in cash and 0.5152 shares of Anthem stock for each of their shares. The companies put the total value at $188 per share.

Industry analysts have pointed out several advantages to an industry consolidation.

A larger insurer can gain more leverage and negotiating power to use in hashing out rates with care providers. However, the two mega deals announced this month are going to be scrutinized heavily by regulators, who want to ensure that they do not gain so much power that they can dominate the market.

The impact these big acquisitions have on consumers likely won't be felt for at least a year, because insurers have already finalized most of their plans for coverage that starts in January. A combination may lead to fewer choices and some price changes for consumers, depending on where they live and who already is in their market.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
July 24 2015 11:58 GMT
#42569
This interview was done hours before the Lafayette theater shooting:

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
heliusx
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States2306 Posts
July 24 2015 12:06 GMT
#42570
Some rumors from people with family in the city police are saying he was john Houser, 58 born in Alabama. Searched an apartment and motel in Lafayette and a house in Alabama. Houser isn't a local last name either. Possibly some crazy from out of town.
dude bro.
heliusx
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States2306 Posts
July 24 2015 12:31 GMT
#42571
Just confirmed john Houser is the shooter. "drifter from Alabama who arrived in Lafayette in early July 2015.". What a peice of shit.
dude bro.
Mercy13
Profile Joined January 2011
United States718 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-24 12:42:25
July 24 2015 12:42 GMT
#42572
On July 24 2015 13:39 LuckyFool wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2015 12:41 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 24 2015 10:32 always_winter wrote:
To be honest I think the best counter-argument is the effect economic sanctions have on anti-Western ideology; as a vehicle driving opposition to the West which becomes indoctrinated and handed down from generation to generation. In that regard it's hard to find common ground with people who have been taught to hate you, but not impossible.

The internet is a magnificent beast. The unprecedented flow of information is an invaluable source of inter-cultural understanding and genuine human progression. I think a progressive movement is already taking root in Iran, not only in spite of these sanctions but BECAUSE of these sanctions, coupled with the age of information which has allowed them to see this world absent a jaded lens. I believe we're best suited to wait for our contemporaries to take power, rather than force history upon the unwilling and risk the consequences.

Edit: Israel is perhaps the most unwilling of all state actors, an intricate piece of the puzzle which has already choreographed air strikes in the event of American abandonment and Iranian nuclear achievement.

I'd also add to that point, as clarification, that I believe the sanctions, from so many thriving Western nations, are fueling revolutionary thought processes within Iranian youth, in which they understand the extreme limitations of a reclusive state and wish to participate on the world stage. I believe they see a commonality among global youth and a common ground from which to leap forward. In that regard I'm an optimist. In a million others I'm a dedicated pessimist. But yea, you raise a valid point and it's easily the best counter argument, but we live in an age capable of overcoming generational indoctrination.

Below is another valid point, but think anti-establishment Germans during the Nazi regime. I'd be hesitant to draw too many parallels, but it certainly illustrates the point that reason can overcome indoctrination and propaganda, and we have far more tools at our disposal to do so now as opposed to the 1930's.


Can you provide a link to a non-proliferation expert who thinks the deal is bad? I haven't been able to find a single one.

The key points to consider when evaluating the deal are:
1. The sanctions slowed down Iran's nuclear program, but could not stop it completely. Without a deal the only way to prevent Iran from getting nukes would have been a war.
2. Keeping the sanctions on depended upon the support of the international community, particularly the UN and the EU. If we had not accepted a deal which the rest of the world views in a very favorable light, we would have lost that support. Most of the sanctions would have been lifted, and Iran would get to have its cake and eat it too (i.e., no sanctions, and an unfettered nuclear program)
3. If it looks like Iran is cheating, we can reimpose the sanctions with a relatively short delay, something like 30 days, with no ability for Russia or China or anyone else to block it.

The only criticism of the deal that I find credible is that it doesn't do anything to prevent Iran from continuing its nonsense in the Mideast, such as funding terrorist groups. However, from a purely non-proliferation perspective, it seems like the best deal we could have hoped for.

Anyway, I wonder if the GOP's blustering actually helped the negotiators?

Kerry: "Iran, I know your position on this point is reasonable, and I'd really just LOVE to give in on it, but you've heard all the screaming from the wingnuts in Congress right? If you don't give in on this, they will kill the deal no matter how stupid it would be to do so."


Most of the US allies in the middle east thinks the deal is bad. The Saudi's think it's bad, even the extreme left of Israel thinks the deal is bad. You don't see the left in Israel agreeing with Netanyahu very often.

My opinion; Lifting sanctions on Iran is a huge mistake. Iran getting $150 billion in mostly upfront sanctions relief is a colossal mistake. The short term destabilization that we could be enabling by lifting sanctions is more dangerous than the possibility Iran might or might not be on the way to a nuke. Anyone who thinks this money is going to be used primarily for education and economic purposes ought to study up on the current Iranian regime. I'm not saying all of Iran is corrupt, but some of the guys at the top for the past few decades are corrupt to the core, there is no room for someone who is openly supporting and funding terrorism. You'd have to be incredibly naive to think a guy like Ali Khamenei is going to stop preaching death to America now because of this deal. Why we would want to invite guys like that back into the community of nations makes no sense to me. Obama has been talking about getting a deal like this done before his presidency so clearly it was on his agenda of trademark things to get done. There could very well be alternative motives behind the deal that we'll never know either. But on the surface the deal looks really bad, filled with loopholes, ways for Iran to get out, side deals and a bunch of random convoluted details like having to give 2+ weeks notice before inspecting known enrichment sites. These details are going to cause major issues in congress when they eventually get to voting on it.

I don't know if it was linked previously but I highly recommend anyone who is interested, to read through the actual deal itself. Some of the clauses in it are beyond laughable in my opinion. Paragraph 36 literally gives Iran a way out of the deal at any time, all they have to do is file a complaint to the joint commission, reject any possible resolution, and are free to walk away from the deal IN WHOLE.

The US doesn't even get anything out of this other than hopes and dreams Iran will clean up their act. I honestly hope they do but we haven't seen any change in over 30 years now.


And paragraph 37 says that if they walkaway the sanctions are reimposed in their entirety, unless the security counsel unanimously votes to keep them off... I don't see the problem here.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
July 24 2015 12:49 GMT
#42573
On July 24 2015 15:35 Doraemon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2015 14:38 GreenHorizons wrote:
Speaking of terrorism (except in this country) there was yet another mass shooting (not to be confused with the one in court).

A man opened fire inside a movie theater in a Lafayette, Louisiana, multiplex, Thursday night, killing two people and wounding seven others -- before taking his own life.

"There's nothing to believe that there was any kind of motive," said Col. Michael Edmonson of the Louisiana State Police.

The shooter was a 58-year-old white man who was a theater patron, police said. Authorities have his name but are withholding it as the investigation continues.

The shooting took place shortly before 8:30 p.m ET at the Grand Theatre 16 in Lafayette, a city of about 120,000 people, 60 miles west of Baton Rouge.

About 100 people were inside the theater for a screening of the comedy, "Trainwreck," when the shooter began firing using a handgun, police said.


Source


sad that it feels pretty routine now


Its the Onion, but this its super relevant:

http://www.theonion.com/article/no-way-to-prevent-this-says-only-nation-where-this-36131

Just remember, there is nothing we could have done.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
July 24 2015 13:33 GMT
#42574
I was about to post that Onion article.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
July 24 2015 13:52 GMT
#42575
We are the only modern nation with this weird, specific issue that we convince ourselves cannot be stopped or handled in any way. You just can’t stop violent people from getting guns and that’s just a fact of America. Unless they are not from this country or happen to be part of the Muslim religion. Then we will hold hearing after hearing on how we could have stopped them.

Next up: The efforts in the war on terror and how we will stop them from getting the weapons they need to engage in terrorism.

Until then, break out your mass shooting bingo card. You get White, loner and violent/troubled past for free.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
whatisthisasheep
Profile Joined April 2015
624 Posts
July 24 2015 15:57 GMT
#42576
On July 24 2015 21:31 heliusx wrote:
Just confirmed john Houser is the shooter. "drifter from Alabama who arrived in Lafayette in early July 2015.". What a peice of shit.

Sounds like someone watched a little to much Rambo
Please help me get in contact with the Pats organization because I'd love to personally deflate Tom's balls.
always_winter
Profile Joined February 2015
United States195 Posts
July 24 2015 17:11 GMT
#42577
What constitutes a non-proliferation expert? I wonder if that comes on a business card.

A non-proliferation standpoint is an ideological standpoint. Enlisting labels as a source of discourse is entirely counterproductive. Non-proliferation is an ideology. It's simply yours.

Imagining the deal from a non-proliferation standpoint relies on a series of assumptions, the first of which is that Iran isn't within reach of a developmental breakthrough already. No one outside of Iran knows the current stage of the program; Iran could already be nuclear. It's only logical Iran would keep that hand close to the chest.

Another is the belief Iran's nuclear ambitions could possibly be limited to energy, an astronomically naïve insinuation which ironically exhibits an incredibly poor understanding of Middle Eastern politics and the incredibly complex dynamism between increasingly non-rational state actors. A child could understand the concept of non-proliferation; similarly a child could be persuaded to view the entire world order through a single lens. That's dangerous.

ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
July 24 2015 17:24 GMT
#42578
On July 24 2015 21:42 Mercy13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 24 2015 13:39 LuckyFool wrote:
On July 24 2015 12:41 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 24 2015 10:32 always_winter wrote:
To be honest I think the best counter-argument is the effect economic sanctions have on anti-Western ideology; as a vehicle driving opposition to the West which becomes indoctrinated and handed down from generation to generation. In that regard it's hard to find common ground with people who have been taught to hate you, but not impossible.

The internet is a magnificent beast. The unprecedented flow of information is an invaluable source of inter-cultural understanding and genuine human progression. I think a progressive movement is already taking root in Iran, not only in spite of these sanctions but BECAUSE of these sanctions, coupled with the age of information which has allowed them to see this world absent a jaded lens. I believe we're best suited to wait for our contemporaries to take power, rather than force history upon the unwilling and risk the consequences.

Edit: Israel is perhaps the most unwilling of all state actors, an intricate piece of the puzzle which has already choreographed air strikes in the event of American abandonment and Iranian nuclear achievement.

I'd also add to that point, as clarification, that I believe the sanctions, from so many thriving Western nations, are fueling revolutionary thought processes within Iranian youth, in which they understand the extreme limitations of a reclusive state and wish to participate on the world stage. I believe they see a commonality among global youth and a common ground from which to leap forward. In that regard I'm an optimist. In a million others I'm a dedicated pessimist. But yea, you raise a valid point and it's easily the best counter argument, but we live in an age capable of overcoming generational indoctrination.

Below is another valid point, but think anti-establishment Germans during the Nazi regime. I'd be hesitant to draw too many parallels, but it certainly illustrates the point that reason can overcome indoctrination and propaganda, and we have far more tools at our disposal to do so now as opposed to the 1930's.


Can you provide a link to a non-proliferation expert who thinks the deal is bad? I haven't been able to find a single one.

The key points to consider when evaluating the deal are:
1. The sanctions slowed down Iran's nuclear program, but could not stop it completely. Without a deal the only way to prevent Iran from getting nukes would have been a war.
2. Keeping the sanctions on depended upon the support of the international community, particularly the UN and the EU. If we had not accepted a deal which the rest of the world views in a very favorable light, we would have lost that support. Most of the sanctions would have been lifted, and Iran would get to have its cake and eat it too (i.e., no sanctions, and an unfettered nuclear program)
3. If it looks like Iran is cheating, we can reimpose the sanctions with a relatively short delay, something like 30 days, with no ability for Russia or China or anyone else to block it.

The only criticism of the deal that I find credible is that it doesn't do anything to prevent Iran from continuing its nonsense in the Mideast, such as funding terrorist groups. However, from a purely non-proliferation perspective, it seems like the best deal we could have hoped for.

Anyway, I wonder if the GOP's blustering actually helped the negotiators?

Kerry: "Iran, I know your position on this point is reasonable, and I'd really just LOVE to give in on it, but you've heard all the screaming from the wingnuts in Congress right? If you don't give in on this, they will kill the deal no matter how stupid it would be to do so."


Most of the US allies in the middle east thinks the deal is bad. The Saudi's think it's bad, even the extreme left of Israel thinks the deal is bad. You don't see the left in Israel agreeing with Netanyahu very often.

My opinion; Lifting sanctions on Iran is a huge mistake. Iran getting $150 billion in mostly upfront sanctions relief is a colossal mistake. The short term destabilization that we could be enabling by lifting sanctions is more dangerous than the possibility Iran might or might not be on the way to a nuke. Anyone who thinks this money is going to be used primarily for education and economic purposes ought to study up on the current Iranian regime. I'm not saying all of Iran is corrupt, but some of the guys at the top for the past few decades are corrupt to the core, there is no room for someone who is openly supporting and funding terrorism. You'd have to be incredibly naive to think a guy like Ali Khamenei is going to stop preaching death to America now because of this deal. Why we would want to invite guys like that back into the community of nations makes no sense to me. Obama has been talking about getting a deal like this done before his presidency so clearly it was on his agenda of trademark things to get done. There could very well be alternative motives behind the deal that we'll never know either. But on the surface the deal looks really bad, filled with loopholes, ways for Iran to get out, side deals and a bunch of random convoluted details like having to give 2+ weeks notice before inspecting known enrichment sites. These details are going to cause major issues in congress when they eventually get to voting on it.

I don't know if it was linked previously but I highly recommend anyone who is interested, to read through the actual deal itself. Some of the clauses in it are beyond laughable in my opinion. Paragraph 36 literally gives Iran a way out of the deal at any time, all they have to do is file a complaint to the joint commission, reject any possible resolution, and are free to walk away from the deal IN WHOLE.

The US doesn't even get anything out of this other than hopes and dreams Iran will clean up their act. I honestly hope they do but we haven't seen any change in over 30 years now.


And paragraph 37 says that if they walkaway the sanctions are reimposed in their entirety, unless the security counsel unanimously votes to keep them off... I don't see the problem here.


And also, don't forget that the Iranian people will be absolutely livid if the sanctions are snapped back.When they riot, they'll make the Green Revolution look like a minor student protest.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
July 24 2015 17:28 GMT
#42579
An extraordinary scene unfolded on the Senate floor Friday as Republican Sen. Ted Cruz bluntly accused Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of lying and said he's running the Senate like his Democratic predecessor.

The charges from the Texas senator and GOP presidential candidate were a rare departure from the Senate's usual staid decorum, even for a politician famous for his fiery speeches.


Source


(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-24 17:45:34
July 24 2015 17:45 GMT
#42580
The Import-Export bank is an unlikely target to make a big show stopping stand, but it is one of the least defensible faces of cronyism in the system. McConnell's beholden to big business. It's no great surprise that he'd promise tea party factions he was done with it, then reverse course and use it as a bargaining chip in future legislation. The man just won reelection, what would you expect?
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
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