You guys are just talking from hindsight lol. It's just a total coin flip for both of them. If it works you're "ballsy" , if it doesn't you're "stupid".

Same Mini who went 12 Nexus in game 7 to win his ASL against Rush.

Same Mini who went center gate 9 9 in game 7 to lose his ASL against Larva.

Highgamer

1428 Posts

5 hours ago

#182

I think the proper term is "calculated risk", admittedly sometimes more "intuitive risk".
"Coinflip" implies that the outcome is 100% out of your hand once the coin is tossed, that there are only every two outcomes with 50%, when actually the probability varies a lot and the players' performance matters even in situations where the outcome seems very foreseeable. Even pros mess up in favorable scenarios sometimes. Nerves, willpower, concentration, fatigue etc. still come into play.

In JinJin's translated videos I've seen Flash sometimes having interesting takes on certain decisions that a layman would regard as just risky or "ballsy" or "stupid", giving insight into hidden factors for the decision-making tied to map-layout, spawn-position, timings. Stuff that changes the risk-percentages that non-pros wouldn't even notice.

Uldridge

Belgium4874 Posts

5 hours ago

#183

On September 23 2025 15:12 Highgamer wrote:
I think the proper term is "calculated risk", admittedly sometimes more "intuitive risk".
"Coinflip" implies that the outcome is 100% out of your hand once the coin is tossed, that there are only every two outcomes with 50%, when actually the probability varies a lot and the players' performance matters even in situations where the outcome seems very foreseeable. Even pros mess up in favorable scenarios sometimes. Nerves, willpower, concentration, fatigue etc. still come into play.

In JinJin's translated videos I've seen Flash sometimes having interesting takes on certain decisions that a layman would regard as just risky or "ballsy" or "stupid", giving insight into hidden factors for the decision-making tied to map-layout, spawn-position, timings. Stuff that changes the risk-percentages that non-pros wouldn't even notice.

Just because your choice is based on "hidden factors" and mind games, doesn't make it less of a coinflip. Mini chose greedy econ, Barracks chose early all in. That it might be 60-40 or 70-30 in practice doesn't matter at all imo, only that instance counts because that's where the results have an actual implication.
Maybe dice roll with succes from 3 and up would be something you prefer as an analogy.

Peeano

Netherlands5142 Posts

3 hours ago

#184

On September 23 2025 14:36 TMNT wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm surely not. Literally when the game started I just knew Barracks would do some kind of early aggression. In fact I would have been surprised if it wasn't an all in, regardless of it being a 4 player map. Hence I ridicule Mini for his build order (and the series overall).

Did you watch the full thing, game by game, TMNT? Sadly I couldn't watch live, but I skipped very little action and I was fully immersed when I had those thoughts.