Note: I might not be able to watch these games live, so if an Mod or admin could edit my OP when the games are done, that would be great. Normally I wouldn't make the live-report thread if I wasn't going to watch the games live, but I have a really good excuse to: I really wanted to make the thread. :D
I just watched kwanro's ZvP games against KaL and SoO. Pretty unimpressive. He beat SoO in Survivor league with a 3hatch hydra rush 12v3 on Python, but got totally owned by KaL in a very bad attempt at a Mutalisk build on Katrina during Proleague (CJ was winning 2-1, kwanro's loss forced an ace match). They're only two games so I can't make any concrete conclusions, but the small impression he has made gives no indication of an ability to beat Bisu in a Bo5.
Python: TLPD informs us of a 20-14 Zerg advantage on this map. Bisu is 0-2 PvZ against July in an ODT match and GoRush from last season MSL. I think we'll see Bisu doing a similar build as he did against July (1gate DT/corsair/cannon --> expand) if he gets a position that is difficult for FE, otherwise we'll see an FE like vs GoRush. I don't think Kwanro can win the same way as July or GoRush nor do I think that Kwanro can learn anything from watching Bisu's games. GoRush's build worked partly because of the positions, 6v12, and mostly because of Bisu's mistaken scouting -- GoRush expanded 3 times to his nat, his min-only, and a corner. Bisu's corsair only saw the first three hatches, while a good number of drones and a Lair were coming in in the corner. Bisu built a ton of cannons at his nat for a hydra rush that was never coming. GoRush took mid-game map control with ease and, with his superior economy, finished the game off. That is not a mistake that Bisu will repeat and Kwanro only has a chance of doing that build in 12v6 or 3v9 positions. And can Kwanro even manage the midgame as brilliantly as GoRush? There is no evidence. Bisu's game vs July was sloppy. I think July came on top because of his experience with Bisu as a teammate and because July is a low unit count, micro kind of guy. With too many variables, it's impossible for anyone to try to recreate the July vs Bisu game on purpose, so Kwanro has no help there. From the perspective of the entire series, I think Kwanro needs to take the first game on Python to really have a chance. The win will help him to survive the middle three games and it'll give him some confidence for the deciding game on Python.
Loki II: If Bisu is not at a disadvantage after the first 7 minutes, he'll win. Not much else to say.
Zodiac: Kwanro and Bisu both thumbed it down (so that it couldn't be both the 1st and 5th map). TLPD gives us 2-1 in favor of Zerg, with both Zerg wins from savior, who basically doesn't lose ZvP to anyone but Bisu. So is it good for Toss or Zerg? It's got islands which is generally good for toss. Toss can FE which is generally good for Bisu. Let's all share in discovering this map together
Blue Storm: Hard to give inside info on this map without any games from Bisu or Kwanro on it. TLPD gives a 6-4 advantage to Protoss which is more significant in light of the fact of an ongoing Z>P trend. Two player map tends to favor Protoss. Bisu can FE. Unless Kwanro has a surprise like maybe a working version of savior's forward hatch build that failed against stork, Bisu will probably run a PvZ clinic.
I don't think there's a way for Kwanro to be prepared for Bisu's PvZ and it's unlikely that he has anywhere near Bisu's "champion quality" of clutch play, so I expect that whether the final game is with the series at 2-2, or Bisu at 2-0, it's going to be a landslide in Bisu's favor. If Bisu somehow goes 0-2, I'll still be expecting a Boxeresque comeback. Kwanro needs to bring something new to the table -- either surprising builds or heightened mechanics or a combo of both. For Bisu, it's another day at the office. I'm going to have to predict 3-0 or 3-1 for Bisu.
PS: I wrote something up like this prior to Bisu's match against Hwasin and it seemed to generate minimal discussion. People just continued to post their predictions and nothing else. Please discuss! I threw out a bunch of opinions so add on them, contradict them, whatever, go go go
Even though I want Kwanro to rape Bisu, I agree with Nony. Kwanro hasn't really show anything "champion like" since we've seen him play, which he will need to survive this series past the first 3 games.
However, Kwanro isn't exactly bad either which is why I think some people think he has a shot. He isn't just another Zerg in the MSL. Only 2 made it this far and lo and behold the other one is his teammate, the God Zerg. The K-man has made it farther than anyone predicted, and CJ is known for raising monster players out of no where.
Kwanro has chances, but it all comes down to his preparation, learning from Savior's mistakes, and whether or not he can produce that champion aura that's needed to take down superstar players like Bisu in a bo5.
On October 27 2007 01:54 NonY[rC] wrote: Python: TLPD informs us of a 20-14 Zerg advantage on this map. Bisu is 0-2 PvZ against July in an ODT match and GoRush from last season MSL. I think we'll see Bisu doing a similar build as he did against July (1gate DT/corsair/cannon --> expand) if he gets a position that is difficult for FE, otherwise we'll see an FE like vs GoRush. I don't think Kwanro can win the same way as July or GoRush nor do I think that Kwanro can learn anything from watching Bisu's games. GoRush's build worked partly because of the positions, 6v12, and mostly because of Bisu's mistaken scouting -- GoRush expanded 3 times to his nat, his min-only, and a corner. Bisu's corsair only saw the first three hatches, while a good number of drones and a Lair were coming in in the corner. Bisu built a ton of cannons at his nat for a hydra rush that was never coming. GoRush took mid-game map control with ease and, with his superior economy, finished the game off. That is not a mistake that Bisu will repeat and Kwanro only has a chance of doing that build in 12v6 or 3v9 positions. And can Kwanro even manage the midgame as brilliantly as GoRush? There is no evidence. Bisu's game vs July was sloppy. I think July came on top because of his experience with Bisu as a teammate and because July is a low unit count, micro kind of guy. With too many variables, it's impossible for anyone to try to recreate the July vs Bisu game on purpose, so Kwanro has no help there. From the perspective of the entire series, I think Kwanro needs to take the first game on Python to really have a chance. The win will help him to survive the middle three games and it'll give him some confidence for the deciding game on Python.
I think that Kwanro would get his best opportunity to win here if they spawn close positions. It would allow for an early scouting with the overlord so Kwanro wouldn't have to guess Bisu's spawning location and he would know what Bisu might be up to as early as possible. I think If Kwanro is going to win it will likely be in the short game, preventing Bisu from being able to tech up and claiming his victory before he has to tech up as he has shown much stronger play in earlier stages of his games than in his later. With close positions it could save him that little bit of extra time to pull off a win.
Loki II: If Bisu is not at a disadvantage after the first 7 minutes, he'll win. Not much else to say.
I think I have to agree with this, and I don't think this will be winnable for Kwanro. Bisu will FE very easily on this map, and should be able to hold off any cheese until he gains the advantage to take the win.
Zodiac: Kwanro and Bisu both thumbed it down (so that it couldn't be both the 1st and 5th map). TLPD gives us 2-1 in favor of Zerg, with both Zerg wins from savior, who basically doesn't lose ZvP to anyone but Bisu. So is it good for Toss or Zerg? It's got islands which is generally good for toss. Toss can FE which is generally good for Bisu. Let's all share in discovering this map together
There is a strange trend of players usually winning on the map that they thumb down (see Savior v Free for example). Perhaps it leads them to practice extra on the map they think is hardest or maybe they thumb down the map they think they are best on due to confidence or wanting to win on "fair" terms. Either way I think the winner of this game will end up being the winner of the whole match.
The fact that both wins are from Savior could actually benefit Kwanro. What does Savior know about ZvP on this map? Both Zergs are on the same team and practiced the same match-up for this week. But then again maybe Kwanro shouldn't be learning from the Maestro due to the fact he is up against the Anti-Maestro.
Blue Storm: Hard to give inside info on this map without any games from Bisu or Kwanro on it. TLPD gives a 6-4 advantage to Protoss which is more significant in light of the fact of an ongoing Z>P trend. Two player map tends to favor Protoss. Bisu can FE. Unless Kwanro has a surprise like maybe a working version of savior's forward hatch build that failed against stork, Bisu will probably run a PvZ clinic.
Again I will mention Kwanro will have to take control early in the game. If Bisu is able to delay any opposition for very long than he will likely win the game (if it even gets this far).
I think Kwanro has the best chances on Python and Zodiac, the other two maps just seem too favorable to both Protoss and Bisu specific style of play. Unless Kwanro has some magic counter he plans on revealing tonight on those maps he is going to have to try to take the match by winning the other three games. + Show Spoiler +
If you saw last night's game between Bisu and UpMagic you saw that UpMagic forced Bisu to cancel his expansion to defend against incoming marines and medics. And I think he ended up getting the first Terran win against Protoss on Katrina. If Kwanro is able to keep Bisu from expanding in similar fashion, then he stands a much better chance at victory.
It will be almost impossible for Kwanro to win, but I hope he shows exciting games and takes at least one. He just needs to make Bisu look a little bit less intimidating in the matchup to set up Ma for the win in the finals.
On October 27 2007 01:54 NonY[rC] wrote: PS: I wrote something up like this prior to Bisu's match against Hwasin and it seemed to generate minimal discussion. People just continued to post their predictions and nothing else. Please discuss! I threw out a bunch of opinions so add on them, contradict them, whatever, go go go
Heh, I think the reason your predictions produce so little discussion is that they're such solid predictions that people can't do much other than nod their heads and say 'Yes, that chap is really on the ball'. It's the same with everything really; controversy spawns discussion, good posts tend to just agreed with. And, well, I agree with pretty much all of your predictions.
This baby Kwanro looks very fragile to me. Just look at him, if Bisu makes angry faces to him, he'll just gg. My pa thought me not to put no money on babies. So this is how is going to happen: 3 times GGplay vs Bisu, but worst. Kwanro will struggle to make overlords and a baby expo, then Bisu (aka Corsair king) will pop overlords like balloons. Send his devious DT to kill the baby expo, and that's the end of Kwanro. I don't think he will live to see a reaver. I just don't see it !!! Go Bisu, baby killer !!!!!
This match is going to be awesome. I predict a series as epic as the first one between July and oov. I'm sure Kwanro has lots of tricks up his sleeves and can definately do good. Let's see if he can do amazing!
I believe Kwanro will do well against Bisu, at least to game 5. He has excellent micro, and ofcourse, practices in the CJ house. We never really know. We might see an upset of a lifetime - just like Bisu vs Nalra, and Bisu vs Savior last season.
I think part of Savior's problem is there isn't many players able to replicate what Bisu does, and there are quite a few Zergs that can at least get the timing of Savior's builds for Bisu to mess around with. I doubt Kwanro has the same game sense of Savior, though he's proved quite good unit sense many times (ie his lings). I predict him trying a trip hatch ling build on Blue Storm and highly agresive builds over-all (hopefully not a 4pool ), but Bisu should expect that and he'll be ready for anything Kwanro throws at him and run him over once Bisu's macro skills get to shine. I don't see Kwanro doing it, Bisu's too percise in general, and some of the maps aren't nice ZvP maps, like Loki2 for example. The protoss gets a fast 3rd gas expo and it's hard to aggro because it's just hidden back there, adding corsair/reaver/dt harass and it becomes a nightmare. Kwanro won't win, but maybe he'll take a game. Feels like the MSL is the Savior and Bisu showcase on PvZ/ZvP this week.
EDIT: Also, for Nony, any analysis your write is awesome and teaches me a lot about aspects of the game I'm only discovering. You should get featured sometime. The problem with the majority of us is we're acting more as fans, not annalists, so our opinions are fun, your writings are just right.
The reality is, anything less than 3-0 is an upset (3-0 for bisu that is) Bisu's losses PvZ in recent times 0-1 vs luxury (on bifrost III though) 0-1 vs July (@ Python) 0-1 vs Calm (@ Peaks) (3-1 vs Gorush) 0-1 vs Oversky and thats about it...
To win, kwanro just needs to get into his rhythm and not let bisu dictate the game to him - he needs to be dictating to him
I don't want Bisu losing to anybody but Savior. And even then, I think they should tie 2-2-10 and declare eachother mutual winners after 10 draw games. (In both the finals of MSL and OSL, god willing Bisu destroys shudder and makes it in OSL).
On October 27 2007 07:24 Plexa wrote: To win, kwanro just needs to get into his rhythm and not let bisu dictate the game to him - he needs to be dictating to him
The problem is Bisu will dictate the game, even when he is at the disadvantage.
yeah there isn't much pre-match discussion to do here. the hwasin/bisu match had a lot more to discuss, especially with bisu down 0-1 in the Bo3. in any case, i'm glad to have provided people with some more info regarding tonight's match. extra background info always makes matches more fun to watch and makes it easier to appreciate the skill of the winner
On October 27 2007 07:56 MYM.Testie wrote: I don't want Bisu losing to anybody but Savior. And even then, I think they should tie 2-2-10 and declare eachother mutual winners after 10 draw games. (In both the finals of MSL and OSL, god willing Bisu destroys shudder and makes it in OSL).
I would love to see Kwanro win, but what reasons has anyone given for him to win other than that "it might happen"? Yeah, okay, if he brings his A game he might have a chance, but that goes for everyone.
The only thing I see he has going for him is that... uh... he's relatively untested so Bisu won't be able to watch his replays and get a grip on his style? And... um... he hasn't been playing in the PL or OSL so he has the time to practice more and formulate amazing strategies? Really dubious advantages, if you ask me.
On October 27 2007 11:24 The Storyteller wrote: I would love to see Kwanro win, but what reasons has anyone given for him to win other than that "it might happen"? Yeah, okay, if he brings his A game he might have a chance, but that goes for everyone.
The only thing I see he has going for him is that... uh... he's relatively untested so Bisu won't be able to watch his replays and get a grip on his style? And... um... he hasn't been playing in the PL or OSL so he has the time to practice more and formulate amazing strategies? Really dubious advantages, if you ask me.
Still, I will be cheering for Kwanro =)
Kwanro biggest advantage is the fact that his style is so different from mainstream zerg, and indeed savior
if he had saviors mechanics and sense, then id give the game to him
Though the odds are against him, I think he can do it (kwanro). I guess I know that bisu will almost guaranteed win this, but...still want kwanro to win
as much as I love Kwanro I'm afraid Nony's right, he just can't stand a chance against Bisu Bisu would need to have a bad night for him to have any hope of winning
im going for the upset :D Kwanro fighting! hey u know wat i realized? he beat sea[shield] & light and they are both from mbc heroes and now his facing bisu and if he beats bisu, kwanro shall be name killers of MBC
I looking forward to this, hopefully my stream does not die. Nony's post pretty much explained how I think the games are gonna be, so: GL Kwanro, you will need it.
On October 27 2007 18:44 [xan] wrote: The probes were mining the bottom minerals so Kwanro saw that to top minerals are free and he thought Bisu wasn't there...
It's pretty standard to do that afaik, I can't believe Kwanro doesn't know about it.
they jsut showed the replay that kwanro sends his overlord to scout bisu at the start, but he turns ol away before he sees nexus or probes. big mistake on kwanro's part
You better hope I don't pop that indie rock The crowd will stop and your ears get copped You wonder why your head got topped. But my face still locked and my eyes still shot.
From the replay, you can see Bisu purposely mined the lower mineral patches first to avoid those hidden ovie scouts. However, Kwanro's ovie went lower and had he clicked on the 3rd mineral patch from the top, he would've seen that it was mined. Also, he had a brief glimpse of a probe.
What a horrible mistake, he's going to cost me 3 points.
Kwanro made several mistakes imho: - not doing a true all-in with his lings: he would have won imho (he decided to send a second wave later instead of continuously making zerglings) ; - microing his mutas so much that he couldn't macro at all.
Somewhere, in a dark room, July sits alone, bathed by the glow of the computer monitor reflected off his two OSL trophies. He watches Kwanro type ' ㅈㅈ' right as his Gom stream dies out.
July lights his cigar with a zergling-shaped Zippo, and cracks a smile to himself.
Kwanro is getting himself into situations Savior would kill for! Stupid mistakes cost him the last two games. This isn't even about game sense, it's about nerves. Sheesh. Nevertheless, he's got promise.
Kwanro's mutal micro was very nice indeed. Then again, any progamer can micro as well as he did if they didn't have to multitask, which is basically what Kwanro did. While microing, he had to many idle larvae and had to catchup by making 3 hatcheries at once. So sloppy.
On October 27 2007 19:18 PoP wrote: - not doing a true all-in with his lings: he would have won imho (he decided to send a second wave later instead of continuously making zerglings) ;
On October 27 2007 19:19 The Storyteller wrote: Kwanro is getting himself into situations Savior would kill for! Stupid mistakes cost him the last two games. This isn't even about game sense, it's about nerves. Sheesh. Nevertheless, he's got promise.
Agreed. I'm kinda getting tired of all the Bisu praise when any protoss would have come back from the mistakes Kwanro made.
kwanro plays the suck... harassing with mutas for 5 minutes, not even tech lurkers in the meantime, when toss comes out with his huge mid-game army -> build 3 hatches and 3 evo chambers and start pumping hyds... wtf that doesnt even work on Iccup C level dude t.t
He had very good muta micro because He wasn't multitasking or macroing at all. If you watch JulyZerg when he micros his Mutalisks, then you will see he is macroing at the same time.
On October 27 2007 19:29 Yaqoob wrote: He had very good muta micro because He wasn't multitasking or macroing at all. If you watch JulyZerg when he micros his Mutalisks, then you will see he is macroing at the same time.
i dont think ive ever seen such a poor zvp performance in a quarter final... opening mutas 3 time in pvz, 2 times with the opponent fully aware of the muta tech is just... weak t.t
That was very frustrating to watch. Knocked out Sea and Light, who had much more potential, only to show the worst zvp series in progaming I've ever seen.
As GGX might say ... D-E-S-T-R-O-Y-E-D. I suppose Kwanro becomes the new 910 in this aspect. I don't remember Stork playing all that well in that series either.
I wouldn't exactly call Bisu's play brilliant tonight either. Still, it got him the results. Now .... Bisu must massgame so he can annihilate Shudder and get closer to that OSL title.
On October 27 2007 19:44 The Storyteller wrote: That third game was very, very bad. Kwaro practically gave up right from the start.
And Bisu did not play very well either. If it were Savior, he would have been mauled.
The last game Bisu had amazing micro and decision making. I don't understand how Savior would have mauled him since Bisu rapes him everytime that they play.
On October 27 2007 19:48 GeLaar wrote: is it just my impression or is there a really good chance that bisu will meet nal_ra again in the semis and then savior in the finals?
On October 27 2007 19:48 GeLaar wrote: is it just my impression or is there a really good chance that bisu will meet nal_ra again in the semis and then savior in the finals?
On October 27 2007 19:48 GeLaar wrote: is it just my impression or is there a really good chance that bisu will meet nal_ra again in the semis and then savior in the finals?
I don't like ra's chances given his performances in the PL. Xellos has a pretty decent chance of pulling something off, all things considered.
On October 27 2007 19:44 The Storyteller wrote: That third game was very, very bad. Kwaro practically gave up right from the start.
And Bisu did not play very well either. If it were Savior, he would have been mauled.
The last game Bisu had amazing micro and decision making. I don't understand how Savior would have mauled him since Bisu rapes him everytime that they play.
Sorry, wasn't referring to the third game particularly. I meant the first two. My fault.
And don't rag on Kwanro just because he lost in his first big match against Bisu. He played pretty well. Before champions were champions they had to overcome nerves as well.
On the treadmill of a small gym, during his daily 43-minute workout, Xellos is jogging at 10 miles per hour. Suddenly he loses the rhythm of his step and stumbles, almost sufferring a catastrophic treadmill accident. He steps off the treadmill and gathers his breathing before resuming his anaerobic exercise.
In the KTF longue, Nal_Ra is reading The Transcendence of the Ego by Jean-Paul Sartre when suddenly he feels a danger lurking behind him. He places a bookmark in his reading and turns around, but no one is there. Nal_Ra adjusts his glasses, shrugs, and continues reading.
On October 27 2007 19:56 HonestTea wrote: On the treadmill of a small gym, during his daily 43-minute workout, Xellos is jogging at 10 miles per hour. Suddenly he loses the rhythm of his step and stumbles, almost sufferring a catastrophic treadmill accident. He steps off the treadmill and gathers his breathing before resuming his anaerobic exercise.
In the KTF longue, Nal_Ra is reading The Transcendence of the Ego by Jean-Paul Sartre when suddenly he feels a danger lurking behind him. He places a bookmark in his reading and turns around, but no one is there. Nal_Ra adjusts his glasses, shrugs, and continues reading.
Yes, but the main thing is... in this entrie passage... Xellos didn't DDR...
On October 27 2007 19:56 HonestTea wrote: On the treadmill of a small gym, during his daily 43-minute workout, Xellos is jogging at 10 miles per hour. Suddenly he loses the rhythm of his step and stumbles, almost sufferring a catastrophic treadmill accident. He steps off the treadmill and gathers his breathing before resuming his anaerobic exercise.
In the KTF longue, Nal_Ra is reading The Transcendence of the Ego by Jean-Paul Sartre when suddenly he feels a danger lurking behind him. He places a bookmark in his reading and turns around, but no one is there. Nal_Ra adjusts his glasses, shrugs, and continues reading.
Yes, but the main thing is... in this entrie passage... Xellos didn't DDR...
On October 27 2007 19:19 HonestTea wrote: Somewhere, in a dark room, July sits alone, bathed by the glow of the computer monitor reflected off his two OSL trophies. He watches Kwanro type ' ㅈㅈ' right as his Gom stream dies out.
July lights his cigar with a zergling-shaped Zippo, and cracks a smile to himself.
His stage is still set.
On October 27 2007 19:56 HonestTea wrote: On the treadmill of a small gym, during his daily 43-minute workout, Xellos is jogging at 10 miles per hour. Suddenly he loses the rhythm of his step and stumbles, almost sufferring a catastrophic treadmill accident. He steps off the treadmill and gathers his breathing before resuming his anaerobic exercise.
In the KTF longue, Nal_Ra is reading The Transcendence of the Ego by Jean-Paul Sartre when suddenly he feels a danger lurking behind him. He places a bookmark in his reading and turns around, but no one is there. Nal_Ra adjusts his glasses, shrugs, and continues reading.
ahh Just realized Bisu now has a 70% win rate against zerg. I think there are only three ppl with above 70% in a mu. jaedong zvz, bisu pvz, and savior zvp
On October 28 2007 05:33 kNyTTyM wrote: ahh Just realized Bisu now has a 70% win rate against zerg. I think there are only three ppl with above 70% in a mu. jaedong zvz, bisu pvz, and savior zvp
As I said before, Bisu dictated the flow of the game through sheer determination, despite Kwarno's awesome mutalisk display in game 2 he couldn't break Bisu down and Bisu didn't let up with his macro or microing that lone archon to keep his 3rd up. I think the game wouldn't have ended that suddenly had Kwanro not opted for the drop though. I think the problem with Loki in general is the inability to put direct pressure (ground based anyways) against the third gas, making it that much easier for most protoss. Kwanro should have taken a few more risks with the expansions I think, he practically owned the skies for a short period there.
On October 28 2007 05:33 kNyTTyM wrote: ahh Just realized Bisu now has a 70% win rate against zerg. I think there are only three ppl with above 70% in a mu. jaedong zvz, bisu pvz, and savior zvp
On October 28 2007 05:33 kNyTTyM wrote: ahh Just realized Bisu now has a 70% win rate against zerg. I think there are only three ppl with above 70% in a mu. jaedong zvz, bisu pvz, and savior zvp
yep 28-12.
bisu bisu tell me how you do so good!
jaedong's ZvT right now is also 70%+
Yeah, theres a number of good players with 70% and its amazing how they got there. Boxer's TvZ is almost 70% too, 66% currently.
Ian, kwanro had like 3 drones mining at his nat while muta harassing, I dunno if he was just spending everything on mutas (since he didn't drone at all early game on account of the ling rush), but that's why he was pretty much done for once bisu's 2nd exp got up.
On October 28 2007 10:38 FrozenArbiter wrote: Ian, kwanro had like 3 drones mining at his nat while muta harassing, I dunno if he was just spending everything on mutas (since he didn't drone at all early game on account of the ling rush), but that's why he was pretty much done for once bisu's 2nd exp got up.
Oh, must have missed that. but it seems he was trying to use a technique that many zerg players use to break down their Terran opponents, except it's not always the way you need to play ZvP.