Note: I might not be able to watch these games live, so if an Mod or admin could edit my OP when the games are done, that would be great. Normally I wouldn't make the live-report thread if I wasn't going to watch the games live, but I have a really good excuse to: I really wanted to make the thread. :D
I just watched kwanro's ZvP games against KaL and SoO. Pretty unimpressive. He beat SoO in Survivor league with a 3hatch hydra rush 12v3 on Python, but got totally owned by KaL in a very bad attempt at a Mutalisk build on Katrina during Proleague (CJ was winning 2-1, kwanro's loss forced an ace match). They're only two games so I can't make any concrete conclusions, but the small impression he has made gives no indication of an ability to beat Bisu in a Bo5.
Python: TLPD informs us of a 20-14 Zerg advantage on this map. Bisu is 0-2 PvZ against July in an ODT match and GoRush from last season MSL. I think we'll see Bisu doing a similar build as he did against July (1gate DT/corsair/cannon --> expand) if he gets a position that is difficult for FE, otherwise we'll see an FE like vs GoRush. I don't think Kwanro can win the same way as July or GoRush nor do I think that Kwanro can learn anything from watching Bisu's games. GoRush's build worked partly because of the positions, 6v12, and mostly because of Bisu's mistaken scouting -- GoRush expanded 3 times to his nat, his min-only, and a corner. Bisu's corsair only saw the first three hatches, while a good number of drones and a Lair were coming in in the corner. Bisu built a ton of cannons at his nat for a hydra rush that was never coming. GoRush took mid-game map control with ease and, with his superior economy, finished the game off. That is not a mistake that Bisu will repeat and Kwanro only has a chance of doing that build in 12v6 or 3v9 positions. And can Kwanro even manage the midgame as brilliantly as GoRush? There is no evidence. Bisu's game vs July was sloppy. I think July came on top because of his experience with Bisu as a teammate and because July is a low unit count, micro kind of guy. With too many variables, it's impossible for anyone to try to recreate the July vs Bisu game on purpose, so Kwanro has no help there. From the perspective of the entire series, I think Kwanro needs to take the first game on Python to really have a chance. The win will help him to survive the middle three games and it'll give him some confidence for the deciding game on Python.
Loki II: If Bisu is not at a disadvantage after the first 7 minutes, he'll win. Not much else to say.
Zodiac: Kwanro and Bisu both thumbed it down (so that it couldn't be both the 1st and 5th map). TLPD gives us 2-1 in favor of Zerg, with both Zerg wins from savior, who basically doesn't lose ZvP to anyone but Bisu. So is it good for Toss or Zerg? It's got islands which is generally good for toss. Toss can FE which is generally good for Bisu. Let's all share in discovering this map together
Blue Storm: Hard to give inside info on this map without any games from Bisu or Kwanro on it. TLPD gives a 6-4 advantage to Protoss which is more significant in light of the fact of an ongoing Z>P trend. Two player map tends to favor Protoss. Bisu can FE. Unless Kwanro has a surprise like maybe a working version of savior's forward hatch build that failed against stork, Bisu will probably run a PvZ clinic.
I don't think there's a way for Kwanro to be prepared for Bisu's PvZ and it's unlikely that he has anywhere near Bisu's "champion quality" of clutch play, so I expect that whether the final game is with the series at 2-2, or Bisu at 2-0, it's going to be a landslide in Bisu's favor. If Bisu somehow goes 0-2, I'll still be expecting a Boxeresque comeback. Kwanro needs to bring something new to the table -- either surprising builds or heightened mechanics or a combo of both. For Bisu, it's another day at the office. I'm going to have to predict 3-0 or 3-1 for Bisu.
PS: I wrote something up like this prior to Bisu's match against Hwasin and it seemed to generate minimal discussion. People just continued to post their predictions and nothing else. Please discuss! I threw out a bunch of opinions so add on them, contradict them, whatever, go go go
Even though I want Kwanro to rape Bisu, I agree with Nony. Kwanro hasn't really show anything "champion like" since we've seen him play, which he will need to survive this series past the first 3 games.
However, Kwanro isn't exactly bad either which is why I think some people think he has a shot. He isn't just another Zerg in the MSL. Only 2 made it this far and lo and behold the other one is his teammate, the God Zerg. The K-man has made it farther than anyone predicted, and CJ is known for raising monster players out of no where.
Kwanro has chances, but it all comes down to his preparation, learning from Savior's mistakes, and whether or not he can produce that champion aura that's needed to take down superstar players like Bisu in a bo5.
On October 27 2007 01:54 NonY[rC] wrote: Python: TLPD informs us of a 20-14 Zerg advantage on this map. Bisu is 0-2 PvZ against July in an ODT match and GoRush from last season MSL. I think we'll see Bisu doing a similar build as he did against July (1gate DT/corsair/cannon --> expand) if he gets a position that is difficult for FE, otherwise we'll see an FE like vs GoRush. I don't think Kwanro can win the same way as July or GoRush nor do I think that Kwanro can learn anything from watching Bisu's games. GoRush's build worked partly because of the positions, 6v12, and mostly because of Bisu's mistaken scouting -- GoRush expanded 3 times to his nat, his min-only, and a corner. Bisu's corsair only saw the first three hatches, while a good number of drones and a Lair were coming in in the corner. Bisu built a ton of cannons at his nat for a hydra rush that was never coming. GoRush took mid-game map control with ease and, with his superior economy, finished the game off. That is not a mistake that Bisu will repeat and Kwanro only has a chance of doing that build in 12v6 or 3v9 positions. And can Kwanro even manage the midgame as brilliantly as GoRush? There is no evidence. Bisu's game vs July was sloppy. I think July came on top because of his experience with Bisu as a teammate and because July is a low unit count, micro kind of guy. With too many variables, it's impossible for anyone to try to recreate the July vs Bisu game on purpose, so Kwanro has no help there. From the perspective of the entire series, I think Kwanro needs to take the first game on Python to really have a chance. The win will help him to survive the middle three games and it'll give him some confidence for the deciding game on Python.
I think that Kwanro would get his best opportunity to win here if they spawn close positions. It would allow for an early scouting with the overlord so Kwanro wouldn't have to guess Bisu's spawning location and he would know what Bisu might be up to as early as possible. I think If Kwanro is going to win it will likely be in the short game, preventing Bisu from being able to tech up and claiming his victory before he has to tech up as he has shown much stronger play in earlier stages of his games than in his later. With close positions it could save him that little bit of extra time to pull off a win.
Loki II: If Bisu is not at a disadvantage after the first 7 minutes, he'll win. Not much else to say.
I think I have to agree with this, and I don't think this will be winnable for Kwanro. Bisu will FE very easily on this map, and should be able to hold off any cheese until he gains the advantage to take the win.
Zodiac: Kwanro and Bisu both thumbed it down (so that it couldn't be both the 1st and 5th map). TLPD gives us 2-1 in favor of Zerg, with both Zerg wins from savior, who basically doesn't lose ZvP to anyone but Bisu. So is it good for Toss or Zerg? It's got islands which is generally good for toss. Toss can FE which is generally good for Bisu. Let's all share in discovering this map together
There is a strange trend of players usually winning on the map that they thumb down (see Savior v Free for example). Perhaps it leads them to practice extra on the map they think is hardest or maybe they thumb down the map they think they are best on due to confidence or wanting to win on "fair" terms. Either way I think the winner of this game will end up being the winner of the whole match.
The fact that both wins are from Savior could actually benefit Kwanro. What does Savior know about ZvP on this map? Both Zergs are on the same team and practiced the same match-up for this week. But then again maybe Kwanro shouldn't be learning from the Maestro due to the fact he is up against the Anti-Maestro.
Blue Storm: Hard to give inside info on this map without any games from Bisu or Kwanro on it. TLPD gives a 6-4 advantage to Protoss which is more significant in light of the fact of an ongoing Z>P trend. Two player map tends to favor Protoss. Bisu can FE. Unless Kwanro has a surprise like maybe a working version of savior's forward hatch build that failed against stork, Bisu will probably run a PvZ clinic.
Again I will mention Kwanro will have to take control early in the game. If Bisu is able to delay any opposition for very long than he will likely win the game (if it even gets this far).
I think Kwanro has the best chances on Python and Zodiac, the other two maps just seem too favorable to both Protoss and Bisu specific style of play. Unless Kwanro has some magic counter he plans on revealing tonight on those maps he is going to have to try to take the match by winning the other three games. + Show Spoiler +
If you saw last night's game between Bisu and UpMagic you saw that UpMagic forced Bisu to cancel his expansion to defend against incoming marines and medics. And I think he ended up getting the first Terran win against Protoss on Katrina. If Kwanro is able to keep Bisu from expanding in similar fashion, then he stands a much better chance at victory.
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