star-craft-is-m y-o-pi-um!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!star-craft-is-m y-o-pi-um!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!star-craft-is-m y-o-pi-um!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!star-craft-is-m y-o-pi-um!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!star-craft-is-m y-o-pi-um!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

awww yeah this is gonna be so FFFFF tight oh i can't wait... flash will do briliant things :D

newvsoldschool

428 Posts

March 24 2012 01:38 GMT

#229

I'm totally fine with either team winning. For one, I'm a Mind fan (

) and I'd like Flash to continue dominating, but it feels so good to cheer for SONG BYUNG GOO. Well, whoever has better chances of beating T1 should win.

Wait... the KT Zergs has definitely shown impressive results in playoffs. It would be so amusing to see a momentum on their part.

KT it is!

Xiphos

Canada7507 Posts

March 24 2012 01:49 GMT

#230

oh man, so pumped for this game.

hopefully this goes to ace with flash playing vs the dragons!

Katsuge

Singapore7730 Posts

March 24 2012 01:51 GMT

#231

i wonder if KT zergs will carry on their momentum from CJ.

on a side note, i prolly be expecting lots of ZvZs

VGhost

United States3613 Posts

March 24 2012 01:51 GMT

#232

Not that we truly need them, but over the next hour I'm going to be working up my own set of predictions, in order by map. I'll be updating as I get each map done.

Samsung KHAN <Day One> KT Rolster

Neo Outlier

PvT: 1-0, not enough data: solid new Protoss (P)

mini beat terrible TvP player (T)

PianO in a game I had mini favored at 69%*.
TvZ: 2-6. Terran favored at 57% (expected record 5-3 over 8 games) average, 7-1 individually; result, any given game has 57% chance of a Zerg upset**.
ZvP:11-8. Zerg favored 56% (ER 12-7) average, 16-3 individually; result, 26% chance of Protoss upset.

KHAN: (P)

Stork 3-0, (Z)

Shine 0-1
KT: (Z)

HoeJJa 3-1 (3-0 in playoffs), (P)

Stats 1-2
Just noticed these only include stats on the new map.

I expect KT to send (Z)

HoeJJa: he would be expected to do even better against KHAN's Protoss than CJ's Zerg even if they are expecting him. I therefore do not expect KHAN to send (P)

Stork: while he may be Samsung's best vZer at the moment and given the map, he is more likely to get a favorable matchup on a different map. Probably (Z)

Shine will get the nod. He and (Z)

RorO have comparable ZvP results but Shine's ZvZ actually has some recent wins; also, he has played here before. Wildcard: (T)

TurN prepped to snipe HoeJJa.

Unfortunately for KHAN, HoeJJa has developed into a quite decent ZvZ player.

Shine <Neo Outlier> HoeJJa (58%)

Sniper Ridge

PvT 11-11. Protoss favored 56% (ER 12-10) average, 15.5-6.5 individually; result, 26% chance of Terran upset.
TvZ 7-5. Terran favored 56% (ER 7-5) average, 10-2 individually; result, 25% chance of Zerg upset.
ZvP 6-2. Zerg favored at 53% (ER 4-4) average, 7-1 individually; result, 12% chance of Protoss upset.

KHAN: (T)

TurN 3-1,

Stork 2-0, (Z)

RorO 2-2,

Reality 1-1, (P)

Grape 0-1, (P)

JangBi 0-1
KT: (T)

Flash 4-1 (1-1), (P)

Stats 3-1, (Z)

Crazy-Hydra 2-1, (Z)

Action 1-0 (1-0), (T)

BarrackS 1-0, (T)

Mind 1-1,

Wooki 0-1, (Z)

HoeJJa 0-1

Sniper Ridge should see either (T)

TurN or

Stork from KHAN, though as we all know predicting January's lineups is difficult. Stork's two wins though are both against (Z)

ZerO, and the big probability that KT sends (T)

Flash here means smart-January stays away. My money then says TurN - or maybe (T)

Reality - to take the lumps from Flash, unless (P)

Grape is specifically prepped for the snipe.

KT similarly has many options, but Flash is probably the best; while just about everyone on the team has played the map, Flash played two of three games last week and has nothing to worry about from anyone except maybe Stork, assuming (P)

Brave does not come out and managed to cannon rush him.

TurN vs Flash, though, will end quite predictably:

TurN <Sniper Ridge> Flash (57%)

Neo Chain Reaction

...Okay, only getting two of these done, I want to watch the game.

* By previous results, analyzed against opponents' results but assuming a random map.
** By my balance system, which analyzes balance as a predicted probability of upset.

Caihead

Canada8550 Posts

March 24 2012 02:27 GMT

#233

On March 24 2012 10:51 VGhost wrote:

* By previous results, analyzed against opponents' results but assuming a random map.
** By my balance system, which analyzes balance as a predicted probability of upset.

I'm curious, are you quantifying an upset as someone who has a better win % in that match up, their proleague / mmr / kespa ranking, or recent match history?

ksike77

Chile3 Posts

March 24 2012 02:29 GMT

#234

friends know where I can watch the event? some plis link =), it is now or not?

Caihead

Canada8550 Posts

March 24 2012 02:32 GMT

#235

On March 24 2012 11:29 ksike77 wrote:
friends know where I can watch the event? some plis link =), it is now or not?

it's in 30 minutes, streams will be listed in the op or the right top bar under ON AIR. It will be up on the esportstv youtube stream for sure also.

pvzvt

Israel2097 Posts

March 24 2012 02:41 GMT

#236

go khan
want to see some epic pvt plz
wouldnt mind to see some turn/reality games ... will be fun

PurePwnageofTerran

268 Posts

March 24 2012 02:46 GMT

#237

Ace match tonight?

Caihead

Canada8550 Posts

March 24 2012 02:46 GMT

#238

hype hype hype

PurePwnageofTerran

268 Posts

March 24 2012 02:49 GMT

#239

On March 24 2012 11:46 PurePwnageofTerran wrote:
Ace match tonight?

What do you guys think, will we finally experience our first ace match for the 2011/2012 SCproleague season?
Rootin for some epic minezzzz :D

chongu

Malaysia2585 Posts

March 24 2012 02:50 GMT

#240

FUCK I FORGOT CHIPS..... @!#!@$!
WHY DID YOU HAVE TO BE 11AM IN THE MORNING!

Heheh, well good games today hopefully.... I hope for less ZvZs to finally test KTzergs, Epic PvTs to give us a taste to come in the finals and an ace match between the finest of players - Flash v X