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[SPL] PO: Khan vs KT (Day 1) - Page 10

Forum Index > Brood War Tournaments
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pyrogenetix
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
China5094 Posts
March 23 2012 04:07 GMT
#181
Doesn't matter SKT1 gonna win this PL anyway =D
Yea that looks just like Kang Min... amazing game sense... and uses mind games well, but has the micro of a washed up progamer.
Wala.Revolution
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
7582 Posts
March 23 2012 04:13 GMT
#182
Per request, I did predictions with a bit of analysis. I didn't put an enormous amount of effort because predictions give me a headache. Too much mindgame.

+ Show Spoiler [Lengthy, biased prediction] +
Predictions

Doing predictions for playoffs made me appreciate coaches and managers even more. Because of its Bo7 format and its lengthy preparation time, there are so many possibilities of mindgames (factor in it's Bo3 of Bo7s and it's even more complex). It's too hard to predict. Even I feel that my predictions are only slightly better than bogus. Also I am biased towards Khan.

« Neo Outlier »
Against CJ Hoejja was sent on here all three matches. Both teams know that, and I do think Samsung will try to use to their advantage to snipe Hoejja with a Terran. I don't see KT 'wasting' Flash or Stats on here, so it'll either be a zerg (which shouldn't be different from Hoejja), or Barracks/Perfectman to counter-snipe.

I think Turn is a good choice for this, as his aggressive style can be used to the max because on that map TvZ and TvP will be about whether the terran can break the front or not.

Hoejja < Turn

« Sniper Ridge »
« Neo Chain Reaction »
« Ground Zero »
« Jade »
The reason I group these maps together are because I highly doubt Flash won't be sent out on one of these maps. KT could take a risk and send Flash out on Jade, but I think it's unlikely because a 4-0 is a possibility (without Flash, albeit low) and Jade can be handled by everyone else. It's also unlikely that he will play on Neo Chain Reaction as well, so we can assume he'll be either playing on Sniper Ridge or Ground Zero.

I think Flash will come out on Sniper Ridge, just like day 2 and 3 of KT vs CJ. It is a superb map for Terrans to play standard vs both Protoss and Zerg, as well as with Flash's 6th sense (which is actually 'just' his ability to analyze information, no matter how small; however, this can be used against him, as was the case of vs. Dear), he'll have a good chance to show us why he is considered a demigod.

As for Khan, I think Stork or Jangbi will be sent out to soft-counter Flash. His games vs Horang2 shows that he is definitely beatable on this map, if not on any map (Horang shouldn't have lost 2nd game and should've won first game more convincingly). I can't tell if Jangbi or Stork will be sent out.

Flash < Jangbi but Flash > Stork because I think Stork will make a crucial mistake on a game-deciding maneuver.

Chain Reaction will still be Brave's map, despite Samsung expecting KT to prepare as such. After fielding him so many times with good results, I think Brave will still be suitable on this map to deal with anything KT throws at him. I expect Wookie to come out with a double fake build of some sorts, but Brave will be prepared and beat it.

Wookie < Brave

On Ground Zero, Stats will come out for KT and I expect whoever didn't come out against Flash to be fielded here. It's a tossup as to who wins. All three players are solid players, and Stats would have easily overcome his shock from that huge mine over the past few days.

Stats <> Stork/Jangbi

Then it's time for a ZvZ on Jade. I expect Action or Crazy-Hydra vs Roro, because I think Roro is better at ZvZ than Shine. Action has experience on this map over CH though. It should go to muta fights, and I expect whoever has the better BO to win.

Action <> Roro

« Neo Electric Circuit »
Shine/Reality/Grape will come out on Neo Electric Circuit, and for KT, it can either be Crazy-Hydra or Mind for a surprise. But CH has been doing quite well in Proleague (and Mind failing), and despite his loss vs Hero which he was very close to having a good chance to win, CH will come out on this map. If Samsung thinks as such, I expect Reality or Grape to come out because ZvZ can always become a tossup.

Reality > Crazy-Hydra > Grape

« Neo Outlier »
It's ace match, so it'll be Flash, possibly Stats or even Crazy-Hydra, expecting a snipe but I doubt it. Stork has been fielded many times on Outlier, and I expect him to have something vs Terran on this map. If it's PvP or PvZ, it'll be decided by who has the better play (and BO), but if it's Flash vs Stork I expect Stork to win.

Stork > Flash

So I have[center]

(Z)HoeJJa « Neo Outlier » Turn
Flash « Sniper Ridge » (P)Stork
Wookie « Neo Chain Reaction » Brave
(P)Stats « Ground Zero » (P)JangBi
(Z)Action « Jade » (Z)RorO
(Z)Crazy-Hydra « Neo Electric Circuit » Reality
(T)Flash « Neo Outlier » Stork

A possibility is for KT to field Flash on Neo Outlier, preparing him for both the first match and should it be necessary, for the ace match as well. I think that's unlikely though, given Flash has capacity to prepare for two maps at least.

Map analysis: Neo Outlier

Why do I expect Turn on here? Because I think Terrans can do fine on this map. Against Zerg, I think two-port is a great opening as Leta has shown in all his games, although spawning at 12 can lead to complications as demonstrated by Light. However, I doubt anyone other than Leta to open two-port, so I expect a wall-in at the nat from Terran for a safe expo, or a vult-expo.

Then zerg will be able to get a easy 3rd gas; up to here, it's standard TvZ except the distance between bases is probably shorter. Why I believe this map is good for Terran is because there is a safe expo at mid you can easily take as a 3rd base by mining out the mineral to high ground and positining a few tanks there. By having tanks there, Terran can secure the narrow, lower-ground pathway as well a good portion of center, allowing considerable range for his mnm/vessel army to roam around with tank support. With aggressive vessel play backed by tanks in middle, zerg's 4th base, whether at either of middle expos or at the unused main expo will always be in trouble. Then, zergs have to opt for drop play while taking a 4th at the side expo between the terran and the zerg, which is always vulnerable to drops before a nydus sets up or Terran can choose to mine out minerals and fight that way, because he'll need to defend that area with drops anyway.

In addition, there are two steps for the terran to push to zerg's base. If he chooses to advance through the wide center, which is smarter because lurkerling can stall on the narrow ramp for a long time, the only ways zerg can backstab are through the narrow pathway of terran's or pathway though theirs into terran's 3rd. Defending a backstab teasily done by having a bunker or two there, and sandwhiching the zerg with the main army.

Other than that, the zerg can attempt to fight at center head-to-head. This battle, I believe, is much better for Terran. No matter which way the zerg flanks, there is still an open path because there are three pathways out of center. In addition, terran's reinforcements are quick to arrive, threatening one of zerg's flank with a pincer maneuver. Without a good way for the zerg to engage in center, I think Terran can always put enormous pressure before defilers are out with the short distance, and even if that were to fail, have another good chance gain a big advantage before zerg can set up a 4th base.

There will be problems however, if terran cannot secure an advantage with a 3rd base in the middle. Side expos are difficult for Terrans to take and secure once Zergs have defiler tech, and drops are always a threat as well. Hence, I expect Turn to be sent out as his aggressive style suits Terran's needs on this map.

Against protoss, it is a bit more diffcult to theorycraft. Midgame should be similar to that of a standard game as Protoss also has a safe 3rd expo, but lack of flankable positions other than center is a problem for protoss as well because routing a big zealot army around neutral side's highground can be cumbersome. If not executed properly, Protoss may find Terran's army already wailing at the natural nexus with plenty of mines to delay the flanking army. Once lategame hits however, arbitors become nightmares.
Stuck.
Abort Retry Fail
Profile Joined December 2011
2636 Posts
March 23 2012 04:21 GMT
#183
On March 23 2012 13:13 Wala.Revolution wrote:
Per request, I did predictions with a bit of analysis. I didn't put an enormous amount of effort because predictions give me a headache. Too much mindgame.

+ Show Spoiler [Lengthy, biased prediction] +
Predictions

Doing predictions for playoffs made me appreciate coaches and managers even more. Because of its Bo7 format and its lengthy preparation time, there are so many possibilities of mindgames (factor in it's Bo3 of Bo7s and it's even more complex). It's too hard to predict. Even I feel that my predictions are only slightly better than bogus. Also I am biased towards Khan.

« Neo Outlier »
Against CJ Hoejja was sent on here all three matches. Both teams know that, and I do think Samsung will try to use to their advantage to snipe Hoejja with a Terran. I don't see KT 'wasting' Flash or Stats on here, so it'll either be a zerg (which shouldn't be different from Hoejja), or Barracks/Perfectman to counter-snipe.

I think Turn is a good choice for this, as his aggressive style can be used to the max because on that map TvZ and TvP will be about whether the terran can break the front or not.

Hoejja < Turn

« Sniper Ridge »
« Neo Chain Reaction »
« Ground Zero »
« Jade »
The reason I group these maps together are because I highly doubt Flash won't be sent out on one of these maps. KT could take a risk and send Flash out on Jade, but I think it's unlikely because a 4-0 is a possibility (without Flash, albeit low) and Jade can be handled by everyone else. It's also unlikely that he will play on Neo Chain Reaction as well, so we can assume he'll be either playing on Sniper Ridge or Ground Zero.

I think Flash will come out on Sniper Ridge, just like day 2 and 3 of KT vs CJ. It is a superb map for Terrans to play standard vs both Protoss and Zerg, as well as with Flash's 6th sense (which is actually 'just' his ability to analyze information, no matter how small; however, this can be used against him, as was the case of vs. Dear), he'll have a good chance to show us why he is considered a demigod.

As for Khan, I think Stork or Jangbi will be sent out to soft-counter Flash. His games vs Horang2 shows that he is definitely beatable on this map, if not on any map (Horang shouldn't have lost 2nd game and should've won first game more convincingly). I can't tell if Jangbi or Stork will be sent out.

Flash < Jangbi but Flash > Stork because I think Stork will make a crucial mistake on a game-deciding maneuver.

Chain Reaction will still be Brave's map, despite Samsung expecting KT to prepare as such. After fielding him so many times with good results, I think Brave will still be suitable on this map to deal with anything KT throws at him. I expect Wookie to come out with a double fake build of some sorts, but Brave will be prepared and beat it.

Wookie < Brave

On Ground Zero, Stats will come out for KT and I expect whoever didn't come out against Flash to be fielded here. It's a tossup as to who wins. All three players are solid players, and Stats would have easily overcome his shock from that huge mine over the past few days.

Stats <> Stork/Jangbi

Then it's time for a ZvZ on Jade. I expect Action or Crazy-Hydra vs Roro, because I think Roro is better at ZvZ than Shine. Action has experience on this map over CH though. It should go to muta fights, and I expect whoever has the better BO to win.

Action <> Roro

« Neo Electric Circuit »
Shine/Reality/Grape will come out on Neo Electric Circuit, and for KT, it can either be Crazy-Hydra or Mind for a surprise. But CH has been doing quite well in Proleague (and Mind failing), and despite his loss vs Hero which he was very close to having a good chance to win, CH will come out on this map. If Samsung thinks as such, I expect Reality or Grape to come out because ZvZ can always become a tossup.

Reality > Crazy-Hydra > Grape

« Neo Outlier »
It's ace match, so it'll be Flash, possibly Stats or even Crazy-Hydra, expecting a snipe but I doubt it. Stork has been fielded many times on Outlier, and I expect him to have something vs Terran on this map. If it's PvP or PvZ, it'll be decided by who has the better play (and BO), but if it's Flash vs Stork I expect Stork to win.

Stork > Flash

So I have[center]

(Z)HoeJJa « Neo Outlier » Turn
Flash « Sniper Ridge » (P)Stork
Wookie « Neo Chain Reaction » Brave
(P)Stats « Ground Zero » (P)JangBi
(Z)Action « Jade » (Z)RorO
(Z)Crazy-Hydra « Neo Electric Circuit » Reality
(T)Flash « Neo Outlier » Stork

A possibility is for KT to field Flash on Neo Outlier, preparing him for both the first match and should it be necessary, for the ace match as well. I think that's unlikely though, given Flash has capacity to prepare for two maps at least.

Map analysis: Neo Outlier

Why do I expect Turn on here? Because I think Terrans can do fine on this map. Against Zerg, I think two-port is a great opening as Leta has shown in all his games, although spawning at 12 can lead to complications as demonstrated by Light. However, I doubt anyone other than Leta to open two-port, so I expect a wall-in at the nat from Terran for a safe expo, or a vult-expo.

Then zerg will be able to get a easy 3rd gas; up to here, it's standard TvZ except the distance between bases is probably shorter. Why I believe this map is good for Terran is because there is a safe expo at mid you can easily take as a 3rd base by mining out the mineral to high ground and positining a few tanks there. By having tanks there, Terran can secure the narrow, lower-ground pathway as well a good portion of center, allowing considerable range for his mnm/vessel army to roam around with tank support. With aggressive vessel play backed by tanks in middle, zerg's 4th base, whether at either of middle expos or at the unused main expo will always be in trouble. Then, zergs have to opt for drop play while taking a 4th at the side expo between the terran and the zerg, which is always vulnerable to drops before a nydus sets up or Terran can choose to mine out minerals and fight that way, because he'll need to defend that area with drops anyway.

In addition, there are two steps for the terran to push to zerg's base. If he chooses to advance through the wide center, which is smarter because lurkerling can stall on the narrow ramp for a long time, the only ways zerg can backstab are through the narrow pathway of terran's or pathway though theirs into terran's 3rd. Defending a backstab teasily done by having a bunker or two there, and sandwhiching the zerg with the main army.

Other than that, the zerg can attempt to fight at center head-to-head. This battle, I believe, is much better for Terran. No matter which way the zerg flanks, there is still an open path because there are three pathways out of center. In addition, terran's reinforcements are quick to arrive, threatening one of zerg's flank with a pincer maneuver. Without a good way for the zerg to engage in center, I think Terran can always put enormous pressure before defilers are out with the short distance, and even if that were to fail, have another good chance gain a big advantage before zerg can set up a 4th base.

There will be problems however, if terran cannot secure an advantage with a 3rd base in the middle. Side expos are difficult for Terrans to take and secure once Zergs have defiler tech, and drops are always a threat as well. Hence, I expect Turn to be sent out as his aggressive style suits Terran's needs on this map.

Against protoss, it is a bit more diffcult to theorycraft. Midgame should be similar to that of a standard game as Protoss also has a safe 3rd expo, but lack of flankable positions other than center is a problem for protoss as well because routing a big zealot army around neutral side's highground can be cumbersome. If not executed properly, Protoss may find Terran's army already wailing at the natural nexus with plenty of mines to delay the flanking army. Once lategame hits however, arbitors become nightmares.

Updated! Thanks!
BSOD
Sawamura
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Malaysia7602 Posts
March 23 2012 04:29 GMT
#184
(P)Stats« Neo Outlier » (P)Stork
(T)Flash« Sniper Ridge »(T)TurN
(Z)Crazy-Hydra« Neo Chain Reaction »(P)Brave
(T)Mind« Ground Zero »(Z)RorO
(Z)Action« Jade »(T)Reality
(P)Wooki« Neo Electric Circuit »(Z)Shine
(Z)HoeJJa« Neo Outlier » (P)Stork
BW/KT Forever R.I.P KT.Violet dearly missed ..
HeroHenry
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1723 Posts
March 23 2012 04:38 GMT
#185
On March 23 2012 13:07 pyrogenetix wrote:
Doesn't matter SKT1 gonna win this PL anyway =D

You mean like how they won last season oh wait...
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50119 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-23 11:02:44
March 23 2012 04:57 GMT
#186
On March 23 2012 13:29 Sawamura wrote:
(P)Stats« Neo Outlier » (P)Stork
(T)Flash« Sniper Ridge »(T)TurN
(Z)Crazy-Hydra« Neo Chain Reaction »(P)Brave
(T)Mind« Ground Zero »(Z)RorO
(Z)Action« Jade »(T)Reality
(P)Wooki« Neo Electric Circuit »(Z)Shine
(Z)HoeJJa« Neo Outlier » (P)Stork

yeah I do agree with stork on neo outlier twice simply because hes never lost on this version of the map, but I think on the KT side it would be the other way around, opening with HoeJJa and ending it with stats.

I understand that HoeJJa has been playing well but still hes not someone who could play an Ace match like Flash/Stats.

I think for KT it would be better if Mind vs Roro would happen on sniper ridge, simply because Mind would want to play on a map where TvZ is more likely than on Ground Zero and the fact that Mind can't TvT for nuts, plus Roro really likes this map and can really push his opponent be it Mind or even Flash.

I'll agree on the CH vs Brave on Neo BraveChain Reaction.

on Ground Zero, I would say Flash vs Jangbi, nothing really to say, this is just a gut read but Jangbi's 2 wins on this map came from light and sea, thats not much to go on but hey Flash lost to a P on this map so...

Reality hasn't been hot this season, I wouldn't count on him coming out this series so I guess this is where TurN would come out on Jade to face Stats who is not only the best logical choice but needs some payback from last time.

weather ahead or behind Khan would want ot play shine next because they know the only logical Choice KT can play now is Wooki/Action and Shine can play both ZvZ and ZvP quite strongly to end the series quickly or get it to the crucial Ace match for Stork to take care of things again.

like I said for the Ace match its going to be Stats vs Stork. So finally we have
(Z)HoeJJa<Neo Outlier>(P)Stork
(T)Mind<Sniper Ridge>(Z)RorO
(Z)Crazy-Hydra<Neo Chain Reaction>(P)Brave
(T)Flash<Ground Zero>(P)JangBi
(P)Stats<Jade>(T)TurN
(Z)Action/(P)Wooki<Neo Electric Circuit>(Z)Shine
(P)Stats<Neo Outlier>(P)Stork
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
Soft`Soap
Profile Joined March 2011
Canada865 Posts
March 23 2012 05:30 GMT
#187
On March 23 2012 09:54 N.geNuity wrote:
Hoejja > Stork (Hydra bust/mine out minerals) Neo Outlier
Action > JangBi (either Hydra bust or JangBi does a 2 gate expand build) Sniper Ridge
Crazy Hydra > Brave (hydra bust + drop play) Neo Chain Reaction
Stats < Turn Ground Zero
Wooki < Roro (hydra bust) Jade
Flash > Shine (shine tries some silly lurker shenanigans) Neo Electric Circuit


can't wait for 4 games of every series to be hydra busts.


no way they'll play flash that late
he'll come out in sniper ride or ground zero IMO
MiXyass DjLadyDana SoftSoap RightClick DigicidaL l)H[Zodiak] 58^^
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50119 Posts
March 23 2012 05:42 GMT
#188
On March 23 2012 14:30 Soft`Soap wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 09:54 N.geNuity wrote:
Hoejja > Stork (Hydra bust/mine out minerals) Neo Outlier
Action > JangBi (either Hydra bust or JangBi does a 2 gate expand build) Sniper Ridge
Crazy Hydra > Brave (hydra bust + drop play) Neo Chain Reaction
Stats < Turn Ground Zero
Wooki < Roro (hydra bust) Jade
Flash > Shine (shine tries some silly lurker shenanigans) Neo Electric Circuit


can't wait for 4 games of every series to be hydra busts.


no way they'll play flash that late
he'll come out in sniper ride or ground zero IMO


yes you are right, but its not entirely impossible where it reach a stage where we'd see a Flash vs Shine on Neo EC.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
jumbotroN
Profile Joined April 2010
Peru229 Posts
March 23 2012 05:52 GMT
#189
didn't notice the predictions and hype post.

SAMSUNG KHAN FTW!
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
March 23 2012 06:56 GMT
#190
I feel like this Khan vs KT is really the epitome of historical race imbalance:
If the khan protoss get hit by KT zergs, KT should win.
If the khan protoss get hit by KT Terran, Khan should win.
Same for Terran. Same for Zerg. (Except for reality.)

Mirror matches, I believe, will favor KT because...
Zergs: Just watch KT vs CJ
Flash: Seriously?
Protoss: Chance of BO win/loss whereas the Khan protoss are definitely the favorites.
☺
Caihead
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada8550 Posts
March 23 2012 09:14 GMT
#191
I don't think KT can take this series if they don't win on day 1, I just hope we can actually see some TvZ's because those have been very interesting this season, but ima just hope for less PvZ / P Z mirrors.
"If you're not living in the US or are a US Citizen, please do not tell us how to vote or how you want our country to be governed." - Serpest, American Hero
xccam
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Great Britain1150 Posts
March 23 2012 10:16 GMT
#192
gogo khan, show KT who's boss
Le French
Profile Joined December 2011
France782 Posts
March 23 2012 10:57 GMT
#193
YES WE KHAN!
Ca va?
Djabanete
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States2786 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-23 11:00:18
March 23 2012 10:58 GMT
#194
On March 23 2012 13:29 Sawamura wrote:
(P)Stats« Neo Outlier » (P)Stork
(T)Flash« Sniper Ridge »(T)TurN
(Z)Crazy-Hydra« Neo Chain Reaction »(P)Brave
(T)Mind« Ground Zero »(Z)RorO
(Z)Action« Jade »(T)Reality
(P)Wooki« Neo Electric Circuit »(Z)Shine
(Z)HoeJJa« Neo Outlier » (P)Stork

Sawa, are you pulling our legs? Where's Jangbi in all this?

Also, I'm not sure that even the KT coach is crazy enough to send Hoejja in the ace match. Even Playoff-Hoejja.
May the BeSt man win.
HopLight
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sweden999 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-23 11:07:15
March 23 2012 11:05 GMT
#195
Hoejja for Ace first day, Flash second, Stats third. Please let it be so!

(I think it's fairly likely KT will send Flash once on Neo Outlier, but if it goes to Ace twice on it they won't send him again).
jaQi
Profile Joined December 2010
1121 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-23 11:18:29
March 23 2012 11:17 GMT
#196
Don't know if I am the only one here, but I think these discussions over the ace set are "fantasies". There is actually no way there will be another guy but Flash gets send out. No matter what, map imbalance, undercover strats, or whatever. Sure everyone tries to snipe Flash, but that is always the case when someone plays against him. If you are the coach of a BW team and you have Flash in your team, would seriously send any other guy but Flash in the ace match? At least I won't. KT always had confidence in Flash and they got payed out for that almost every time.

Hopefully we will see great matches! Usually I don't like mirrors, but Stats vs Stork would be very nice!
Renkaoru
Profile Joined October 2010
390 Posts
March 23 2012 14:53 GMT
#197
On March 23 2012 20:17 jaQi wrote:
Hopefully we will see great matches! Usually I don't like mirrors, but Stats vs Stork would be very nice!


Yes, so we can watch Stork school that kid back into oblivion using his ubergosu reaver micro.

This thread is so cool, I wonder how dafuq did this turn into a slugfest between KT and SKT1 fans when it's KT and Khan playing.
God is in His heaven. All is right with the world.
Vazze
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden279 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-23 15:20:20
March 23 2012 15:14 GMT
#198
On March 23 2012 23:53 Renkaoru wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 20:17 jaQi wrote:
Hopefully we will see great matches! Usually I don't like mirrors, but Stats vs Stork would be very nice!


Yes, so we can watch Stork school that kid back into oblivion using his ubergosu reaver micro.

This thread is so cool, I wonder how dafuq did this turn into a slugfest between KT and SKT1 fans when it's KT and Khan playing.

I guess we fear we might lose to KT again in the grand finals so we hope Khan will win and make up reasons why it will happen

Edit: At least I am
Jung Myung Hoon and Doh Jae Wook fan!
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
March 23 2012 15:18 GMT
#199
MURKA
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50119 Posts
March 23 2012 15:34 GMT
#200
On March 24 2012 00:18 flamewheel wrote:
MURKA


AMERICA?
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
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