[SPL] PO: Khan vs KT (Day 1)

PREDICTIONS, ANALYSIS, HYPE!

by Wala.Revolution:

Predictions

Doing predictions for playoffs made me appreciate coaches and managers even more. Because of its Bo7 format and its lengthy preparation time, there are so many possibilities of mindgames (factor in it's Bo3 of Bo7s and it's even more complex). It's too hard to predict. Even I feel that my predictions are only slightly better than bogus. Also I am biased towards Khan.

« Neo Outlier »
Against CJ Hoejja was sent on here all three matches. Both teams know that, and I do think Samsung will try to use to their advantage to snipe Hoejja with a Terran. I don't see KT 'wasting' Flash or Stats on here, so it'll either be a zerg (which shouldn't be different from Hoejja), or Barracks/Perfectman to counter-snipe.

I think Turn is a good choice for this, as his aggressive style can be used to the max because on that map TvZ and TvP will be about whether the terran can break the front or not.

Hoejja < Turn

« Sniper Ridge »
« Neo Chain Reaction »
« Ground Zero »
« Jade »
The reason I group these maps together are because I highly doubt Flash won't be sent out on one of these maps. KT could take a risk and send Flash out on Jade, but I think it's unlikely because a 4-0 is a possibility (without Flash, albeit low) and Jade can be handled by everyone else. It's also unlikely that he will play on Neo Chain Reaction as well, so we can assume he'll be either playing on Sniper Ridge or Ground Zero.

I think Flash will come out on Sniper Ridge, just like day 2 and 3 of KT vs CJ. It is a superb map for Terrans to play standard vs both Protoss and Zerg, as well as with Flash's 6th sense (which is actually 'just' his ability to analyze information, no matter how small; however, this can be used against him, as was the case of vs. Dear), he'll have a good chance to show us why he is considered a demigod.

As for Khan, I think Stork or Jangbi will be sent out to soft-counter Flash. His games vs Horang2 shows that he is definitely beatable on this map, if not on any map (Horang shouldn't have lost 2nd game and should've won first game more convincingly). I can't tell if Jangbi or Stork will be sent out.

Flash < Jangbi but Flash > Stork because I think Stork will make a crucial mistake on a game-deciding maneuver.

Chain Reaction will still be Brave's map, despite Samsung expecting KT to prepare as such. After fielding him so many times with good results, I think Brave will still be suitable on this map to deal with anything KT throws at him. I expect Wookie to come out with a double fake build of some sorts, but Brave will be prepared and beat it.

Wookie < Brave

On Ground Zero, Stats will come out for KT and I expect whoever didn't come out against Flash to be fielded here. It's a tossup as to who wins. All three players are solid players, and Stats would have easily overcome his shock from that huge mine over the past few days.

Stats <> Stork/Jangbi

Then it's time for a ZvZ on Jade. I expect Action or Crazy-Hydra vs Roro, because I think Roro is better at ZvZ than Shine. Action has experience on this map over CH though. It should go to muta fights, and I expect whoever has the better BO to win.

Action <> Roro

« Neo Electric Circuit »
Shine/Reality/Grape will come out on Neo Electric Circuit, and for KT, it can either be Crazy-Hydra or Mind for a surprise. But CH has been doing quite well in Proleague (and Mind failing), and despite his loss vs Hero which he was very close to having a good chance to win, CH will come out on this map. If Samsung thinks as such, I expect Reality or Grape to come out because ZvZ can always become a tossup.

Reality > Crazy-Hydra > Grape

« Neo Outlier »
It's ace match, so it'll be Flash, possibly Stats or even Crazy-Hydra, expecting a snipe but I doubt it. Stork has been fielded many times on Outlier, and I expect him to have something vs Terran on this map. If it's PvP or PvZ, it'll be decided by who has the better play (and BO), but if it's Flash vs Stork I expect Stork to win.

Stork > Flash

So I have

HoeJJa « Neo Outlier » Turn
Flash « Sniper Ridge » Stork
Wookie « Neo Chain Reaction » Brave
Stats « Ground Zero » JangBi
Action « Jade » RorO
Crazy-Hydra « Neo Electric Circuit » Reality
Flash « Neo Outlier » Stork

A possibility is for KT to field Flash on Neo Outlier, preparing him for both the first match and should it be necessary, for the ace match as well. I think that's unlikely though, given Flash has capacity to prepare for two maps at least.

Map analysis: Neo Outlier

Why do I expect Turn on here? Because I think Terrans can do fine on this map. Against Zerg, I think two-port is a great opening as Leta has shown in all his games, although spawning at 12 can lead to complications as demonstrated by Light. However, I doubt anyone other than Leta to open two-port, so I expect a wall-in at the nat from Terran for a safe expo, or a vult-expo.

Then zerg will be able to get a easy 3rd gas; up to here, it's standard TvZ except the distance between bases is probably shorter. Why I believe this map is good for Terran is because there is a safe expo at mid you can easily take as a 3rd base by mining out the mineral to high ground and positining a few tanks there. By having tanks there, Terran can secure the narrow, lower-ground pathway as well a good portion of center, allowing considerable range for his mnm/vessel army to roam around with tank support. With aggressive vessel play backed by tanks in middle, zerg's 4th base, whether at either of middle expos or at the unused main expo will always be in trouble. Then, zergs have to opt for drop play while taking a 4th at the side expo between the terran and the zerg, which is always vulnerable to drops before a nydus sets up or Terran can choose to mine out minerals and fight that way, because he'll need to defend that area with drops anyway.

In addition, there are two steps for the terran to push to zerg's base. If he chooses to advance through the wide center, which is smarter because lurkerling can stall on the narrow ramp for a long time, the only ways zerg can backstab are through the narrow pathway of terran's or pathway though theirs into terran's 3rd. Defending a backstab teasily done by having a bunker or two there, and sandwhiching the zerg with the main army.

Other than that, the zerg can attempt to fight at center head-to-head. This battle, I believe, is much better for Terran. No matter which way the zerg flanks, there is still an open path because there are three pathways out of center. In addition, terran's reinforcements are quick to arrive, threatening one of zerg's flank with a pincer maneuver. Without a good way for the zerg to engage in center, I think Terran can always put enormous pressure before defilers are out with the short distance, and even if that were to fail, have another good chance gain a big advantage before zerg can set up a 4th base.

There will be problems however, if terran cannot secure an advantage with a 3rd base in the middle. Side expos are difficult for Terrans to take and secure once Zergs have defiler tech, and drops are always a threat as well. Hence, I expect Turn to be sent out as his aggressive style suits Terran's needs on this map.

Against protoss, it is a bit more diffcult to theorycraft. Midgame should be similar to that of a standard game as Protoss also has a safe 3rd expo, but lack of flankable positions other than center is a problem for protoss as well because routing a big zealot army around neutral side's highground can be cumbersome. If not executed properly, Protoss may find Terran's army already wailing at the natural nexus with plenty of mines to delay the flanking army. Once lategame hits however, arbitors become nightmares.