EPTEDIT: PLEASE READ THE ORIGINAL POST CAREFULLY. SOME REPLIES HAVE BEEN DIRECTED TOWARDS ZVP, WHILST OTHERS ARE UNCERTAIN IF I AM REFERRING TO 'AGGRESSIVE MUTALISK' WHICH I IN FACT AM.
In the broadest sense, which air upgrade is better for Zerg versus Terran.
Of course, in order to answer the question more details must be given. Some basic assumptions include, good Mutalisk micro versus good opponent.
Aggressive Build
In most games a Zerg will not get flyer upgrades unless they are doing an aggressive build, as we have seen on Blue Storm. Some variations of said 'aggressive build' include mass Mutalisk, as well as Mutalisk into Guardians. I am assuming aggressive build with weak to no intent in a transfer into lurkers.
Mathematical Return
Until as of late, I have always assumed flyer carapace to be the ideal upgrade. Mathematically, a +1 to carapace is a significant reduction in the marines 6 damage (5/6) whereas a boost to attack yields a weaker return of +1 to a base of 9 damage (10/9).
Cost of Upgrade
I almost overlooked this. The cost of flyer attack is 100/100 gas/minerals, whereas the cost of flyer carapace is slightly more 150/150 gas/minerals.
Mutalisk Micro Method
To further complicate the matter and above, we need to question the method of Mutalisk Micro. On Battle.net, the most effective method for me personally was the attack ground or attack unit method. However, on LAN I realized that the hold position Mutalisk micro was more effective at killing (damage spread out more evenly, compared to Marine overkill), however was close to impossible over Battle.net
Turret Count & Mutalisk Targets
- # Turrets by Terran user (obviously unforeseeable, does this affect answer?)
- Mutalisk Target Style: Primary focus on SCVs or Marines *Note this particular issue is hard to define, on the basic note, I believe it is general consensus to target SCVs first, however in an aggressive style keeping the Marine Count low is also important.
Argument for Carapace
In the past, the argument based on Math convinced me, perhaps prematurely without considering all the variables.
Argument for Attack
Past the basics, we should consider that with the +1, 4 Mutalisks can 1-shot one Marine (assuming no upgrades). The validity of this is questionable, since we will assume our Mutalisk numbers keep replenishing, therefore should we sink down to 4 Mutalisk we are fucked anyway.
Additional Variables
The scenarios of most importance to me is:
-Terran fast expand, M&M
-Zerg 3 hatchery spire build versus 2 hatchery spire build. (Both)
Examples of other scenarios:
- Terran fast expand versus 1 base M&M
- Zerg 3 hatchery with 2 expansions (1 for gas only), versus only 1 expansion (the natural).
- ETC.
Disclaimer:
I tried search.
Constructive discussion/comments please.
I don't expect there to be a one universal answer to all scenarios and situations, but am aiming for a discussion as to the pros and cons to better my own understanding of flyer upgrades.
Feel free to discuss, and re-define the question to how you better see fit. I tried to best express my opinion and my personal debate, but it is of course difficult, given the many styles of play and various skill levels of players.
EDIT: OK shit I suck. This should be in strategy. And the closest thread I found was http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=58620 which supported carapace only by Chill.
+ Show Spoiler +
Upgrades are a difficult part of Zerg play. First off, in Mutalisk versus Mutalisk battles, Carapace is always the best upgrade to get. If you can afford it, three carapace upgrades before any attack upgrades is preferred. When a Mutalisk fires, its damage is divided by 3 every bounce. This begins at 9,3,1. When you upgrade attack, this becomes 10, 3.33, 1.11, essentially an increase of 1.44 damage; however, when fighting an opponent who instead upgraded carapace, each of those hits gets reduced by 1, meaning it would become 9, 2.33, 0.11. The carapace-upgrade Mutalisks are taking 1.56 less damage per attack. If you don't understand, upgrade carapace. Additionally, Scourge benefit from the carapace upgrade, allowing them to avoid dying frmo bounce damage while closing in. It should be mentioned that because damage is counted as either an integer or a half, the numbers won't work out exactly as mentioned above, but it was just to give an example.
Upgrades' effectiveness increases as your number of units increases, so if you are getting a carapace upgrade, you are better off trying to defend and accumulate Mutalisks rather than playing a skirmish style of play. Similarly, if you suspect your opponent is stalling for his carapace upgrade to finish, you want to engage in skirmishes with Scourge and Mutalisks. If you are playing a map conducive to fast expansions and macro, you should begin the carapace upgrade as soon as your Spire finishes. If you are playing a more aggressive map, I would avoid the upgrade until you have at least expanded.
It is worth mentioning that some players have said that the cost differential between the second carapace and first attack upgrade make it more reasonable to upgrade attack rather than carapace as your second upgrade. While this may be true, if you are playing a game that is going long enough for you to consider a second upgrade, your Mutalisk numbers should be large enough that one less Mutalisk while you research the second carapace upgrade should not matter. If you are trying to punish your opponent while you have a carapace upgrade and he doesn't (much like Protoss does to Zerg while +1 weapons is finished before carapace), do not research a second upgrade. Time your attack to be maximized as soon as the upgrade completes.
As unlikely as it is, upgrade carapace against Hydralisks. Mutalisks are meant to take damage while Zerglings deal the damage. It should be noted that many players have said that they prefer getting Mutalisks attack, while helps in raiding, sniping stray Hydralisks and dealing with Spore Colonies. I disagree; I believe that carapace is necessary for allowing your army to live long enough to let Zerglings engage the Hydralisks and start dealing damage.
Upgrades' effectiveness increases as your number of units increases, so if you are getting a carapace upgrade, you are better off trying to defend and accumulate Mutalisks rather than playing a skirmish style of play. Similarly, if you suspect your opponent is stalling for his carapace upgrade to finish, you want to engage in skirmishes with Scourge and Mutalisks. If you are playing a map conducive to fast expansions and macro, you should begin the carapace upgrade as soon as your Spire finishes. If you are playing a more aggressive map, I would avoid the upgrade until you have at least expanded.
It is worth mentioning that some players have said that the cost differential between the second carapace and first attack upgrade make it more reasonable to upgrade attack rather than carapace as your second upgrade. While this may be true, if you are playing a game that is going long enough for you to consider a second upgrade, your Mutalisk numbers should be large enough that one less Mutalisk while you research the second carapace upgrade should not matter. If you are trying to punish your opponent while you have a carapace upgrade and he doesn't (much like Protoss does to Zerg while +1 weapons is finished before carapace), do not research a second upgrade. Time your attack to be maximized as soon as the upgrade completes.
As unlikely as it is, upgrade carapace against Hydralisks. Mutalisks are meant to take damage while Zerglings deal the damage. It should be noted that many players have said that they prefer getting Mutalisks attack, while helps in raiding, sniping stray Hydralisks and dealing with Spore Colonies. I disagree; I believe that carapace is necessary for allowing your army to live long enough to let Zerglings engage the Hydralisks and start dealing damage.
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CURRENT THEORY:
Given the nature of Battle.net and the impracticality of hold position Mutalisk Micro (it's really hard with the slightest lag), carapace is ideal. However, given a LAN environment (possibly Chaos), upgrading attack and using hold position Mutalisk micro is ideal.
Hold position micro results in a more 'spread out' Mutalisk attack, killing sometimes 2-3 Marines at once. And the effectiveness of hold-position micro is vastly improved by attack upgrade. A targeting attack ground approach of Mutalisk micro reaps little benefit from a +1 attack, usually resulting in overkill of a single marine and the 'bounce' being 0.33 (Source: Chill) is negligible.
