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[ASL15] Afreeca Starleague To Start On Feb 28 - Page 12

Forum Index > BW General
328 CommentsPost a Reply
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BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES51709 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-02-20 18:00:27
February 20 2023 17:59 GMT
#221
Ultimately the game itself is not rigged, even if you say on paper a group is made which is considered an easy layup for any player they still need to play and win.

And well anything can happen in Bo1s
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4300 Posts
February 20 2023 20:22 GMT
#222
Finally we know the groups!

Pretty balanced this season, tbh. Should be fun to watch.

Absolutely hate that it's still full bo1, but that will probably never change, so.. yeah..

PROTOSS FIGHTING ! ! !
RogerChillingworth
Profile Joined March 2010
Chad3132 Posts
February 20 2023 20:56 GMT
#223
On February 20 2023 20:33 prosatan wrote:
We have the groups !

Group A:
Mini , Inguh , Action, sSak - 28th Feb

Group B:
Bisu , Hyun, Sharp, Barracks - 1st March

Group C:
soma, Ample, Best, Mind - 3rd March

Group D:
Snow, Bishop, Shuttle, JD! - 5th March

Group E:
Queen , Ruin, Shine, Mong - 6th March

Group F:
Light, Sacsri , JyJ , Stork - 8th March

First group will be on 28 february.
Let's go JAEDONG!!



Wow...pretty wild. Mini and Queen got off kinda easy, no?

That group C though! Feeling soma and Best but I hope Ample shows some good games.
Miragee
Profile Joined December 2009
8716 Posts
February 20 2023 21:06 GMT
#224
On February 21 2023 02:04 redknights wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2023 01:34 Miragee wrote:
On February 21 2023 00:20 TMNT wrote:
On February 20 2023 22:55 Miragee wrote:
On February 20 2023 21:29 TMNT wrote:
The groups for JD were rigged three seasons in a row. People predicted this exact group for him after the qualifiers finished lmao.

Weakest tier 1 PvZ (Snow) + weakest tier 2 player (Shuttle). The tier 4 player doesn't really matter. Last season they chose Snow + Shine thinking it was JvZ but after it didn't work out they took note this time.


That's a lot of conspiratorial thoughts.

I mean, it's almost common knowledge that some popular players are given easy groups to advance to keep up the ratings. That happens in the qualifiers as well.

The problem with JD is he's tier 3 so the group selection for him looks more obvious than others (like, if you're tier 1 then selecting the tier 2 and 3 that you're favorable to beat is much easier).
- In this case, Snow is the most doable for JD among the tier 1 because Soulkey is already seeded. Notice that Snow was given to JD last season and Soulkey the season before.
- The weakest tier 2 are Shine Shuttle and JYJ. They can't give him Shine again because it'd be the exact group of last season, so it's a toss between Shuttle and JYJ and Shuttle is preferred because he's P.
- Then because there's 2 Ps already the last one has to be a T, so it's either Ample Hiya or Bishop which obviously doesn't matter.

That's how people predicted this exact group (with variations of Ample/Hiya/Bishop) since the qualifiers ended.


Seeding is common in qualifiers so we don't run into a scenario where half the top dogs eliminate each other and the main tournament is flooded with less skilled players.

I don't know how it went this time but usually these groups are drawn as far as I'm aware. It's either randomised or they do a group selection ceremony where they draw the original groups and then allow the players to switch some.
Also, only because a particular outcome lines up it doesn't mean they selected the groups by hand to the benefit of certain players. It is possible if they don't draw the groups in public and it has happened accross different sports for sure. I just don't see any evidence in this case (yet), hence I call it a conspiracy for now.

It is not random.

Former player and current Afreeca employee 910 makes the groups. He also makes the qualifying groups. Round of 24 groups are made based on the 4 tiers corresponding to ASL points.

Group selection ceremony is only Round of 16.

Also the Korean community itself believes there are biased groups made to favor certain players, they even have a term for it "부커조" = 부커 (booker / booking) + 조 (Group).

Why wouldn't Afreeca manipulate it so that the more popular streamers made it to ASL and thus get more interest/viewership?


Well, fair enough, thanks for correcting me. That's bullshit then. Imho Ro24 groups should be drawn.

For the qualifier I get it, as I said, and I think that's fair.
RJBTV
Profile Joined December 2022
194 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-02-20 23:03:10
February 20 2023 23:02 GMT
#225
Group A:
Mini , Inguh , Action, sSak - 28th Feb || Action and Mini for 1 and 2. Order depends on Action or Mini having a particularly good day.

Group B:
Bisu , Hyun, Sharp, Barracks - 1st March || Bisu and Barracks. Bisu should get out without a doubt. Barracks has really high peaks in TvT and I think it is going to come down to Sharp vs Barracks TvT, which I give to Barracks.

Group C:
soma, Ample, Best, Mind - 3rd March || Soma and Best are on paper the favorites by quite a bit. Ample can pull off upsets on his good days but it seems unlikely against Soma who is in my opinion #1 Zerg now. Against Mind there's a chance but Mind's favored. I do Hope Ample makes it out!

Group D:
Snow, Bishop, Shuttle, JD! - 5th March || No doubt, Snow and Jaedong.

Group E:
Queen , Ruin, Shine, Mong - 6th March || Queen and Mong. Ruin is capable of taking down Shine but I don't think he matches up well against either Queen or Mong. Shine also doesn't match up well against either of them.

Group F:
Light, Sacsri , JyJ , Stork - 8th March || JyJ and Light. Light on his good days is the #1 player in the tournament, and on his bad days a top 8 player. Can't say the same for the other three. JyJ is particularly strong in TvP so taking him over Stork.

TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1146 Posts
February 20 2023 23:55 GMT
#226
[B

Group D:
Snow, Bishop, Shuttle, JD! - 5th March || No doubt, Snow and Jaedong.


Snow clear favorite, pretty sure jd is 4th favorite.
Again, its bo1 but still...

Snow and shutle, or snow and bishop imo.
prosatan, i really hope to be wrong also
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands5996 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-02-21 02:05:07
February 21 2023 01:53 GMT
#227
I'm quite disappointed a Group Draw broadcast was skipped. Group Draw is one the only things fans have left get a better sense of the person behind the player. It gives players character.

Sure we have streams we can tune into now, but it's just not the same. The biggest tournament in the world needs a good story too and Group Draw is historically a big part of it imo. I hope ASL doesn't do this again or makes up for it in another way of good pre-game and/or post-game interviews for example or like videos shorts for the Ro8 players. Make it a bit more personal. Let the fans connect with their favorite players.

Edit: Group Draw may happen for Ro16?
FBH #1!
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands5996 Posts
February 21 2023 02:02 GMT
#228
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance.
FBH #1!
FyRe_DragOn
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada2057 Posts
February 21 2023 02:44 GMT
#229
group draw ceremony is traditionally ro16, then the random draw with the balls for ro8. this is nothing unusual
aka DragOn[NaS]
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands5996 Posts
February 21 2023 03:03 GMT
#230
On February 21 2023 11:44 FyRe_DragOn wrote:
group draw ceremony is traditionally ro16, then the random draw with the balls for ro8. this is nothing unusual

Right. Thanks. I guess it's been too long without ASL I had to find something to complain about lol
FBH #1!
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania9430 Posts
February 21 2023 06:18 GMT
#231
On February 21 2023 08:02 RJBTV wrote:
Group A:
Mini , Inguh , Action, sSak - 28th Feb || Action and Mini for 1 and 2. Order depends on Action or Mini having a particularly good day.

Group B:
Bisu , Hyun, Sharp, Barracks - 1st March || Bisu and Barracks. Bisu should get out without a doubt. Barracks has really high peaks in TvT and I think it is going to come down to Sharp vs Barracks TvT, which I give to Barracks.

Group C:
soma, Ample, Best, Mind - 3rd March || Soma and Best are on paper the favorites by quite a bit. Ample can pull off upsets on his good days but it seems unlikely against Soma who is in my opinion #1 Zerg now. Against Mind there's a chance but Mind's favored. I do Hope Ample makes it out!

Group D:
Snow, Bishop, Shuttle, JD! - 5th March || No doubt, Snow and Jaedong.

Group E:
Queen , Ruin, Shine, Mong - 6th March || Queen and Mong. Ruin is capable of taking down Shine but I don't think he matches up well against either Queen or Mong. Shine also doesn't match up well against either of them.

Group F:
Light, Sacsri , JyJ , Stork - 8th March || JyJ and Light. Light on his good days is the #1 player in the tournament, and on his bad days a top 8 player. Can't say the same for the other three. JyJ is particularly strong in TvP so taking him over Stork.



Agree 100 % RJBTV !

Please be right with prediction on group D
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
Lazyer
Profile Joined August 2011
United States402 Posts
February 21 2023 06:52 GMT
#232
Yessss so glad it's confirmed!!! Kind of excited to see Barracks has a non-zero chance to get out of his group.

Also lmao Stork... wonder if he's going to retire again after his group. Not easy by any means.
Samsakzerg
Profile Joined October 2019
61 Posts
February 21 2023 07:18 GMT
#233
On February 21 2023 11:02 Peeano wrote:
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance.


JD will come out 1st unless Snow plays his A game PVZ. JD has been steadily improvely, stacking up games after games in the pro league format with the top pros every night. His ZvT is still shaky, but even that is improving. His ZVZ ZVP are returning to top form.
IntoTheEmo
Profile Joined February 2009
Singapore1170 Posts
February 21 2023 08:17 GMT
#234
On February 21 2023 16:18 Samsakzerg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2023 11:02 Peeano wrote:
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance.


JD will come out 1st unless Snow plays his A game PVZ. JD has been steadily improvely, stacking up games after games in the pro league format with the top pros every night. His ZvT is still shaky, but even that is improving. His ZVZ ZVP are returning to top form.


I hope you're right, JD has had many, many disappointing losses especially in his famous ZvZ ever since SC2 came out. I still remember him losing to HoGiL in Bacchus 2010 and then to Hydra in the MSL of the same year...

In ASL he beat Flash only to lose to Action after, and of course in the last one he got eliminated by Shine. Whenever Tastosis mentions JvZ, I kinda shake my head. What you said sounds promising though!
MMOs kill APM. However Proleague plus BW Proscene music increase APM -> 100. 이제동 Fighting! Highest ranked Jaedong owner in FPL10 = clearly #1 Jaedong fan~! <- Keeping my sig from 2010
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
3406 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-02-21 08:41:31
February 21 2023 08:40 GMT
#235
On current form JD is the no.1 favorite in that group. Since the last ASL until 1-2 months ago he had a huge dip but recently has been training like crazy and improving nonstop. He's especially strong in ZvP, not even Bisu or Mini has a positive record against him recently.

Everyone should check out the daily proleagues thread to update the latest form of these players :d
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1146 Posts
February 21 2023 10:47 GMT
#236
On February 21 2023 11:02 Peeano wrote:
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance.


I would bet a considerable amount on the guy, with those odds
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
February 21 2023 16:59 GMT
#237
On February 21 2023 17:17 IntoTheEmo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2023 16:18 Samsakzerg wrote:
On February 21 2023 11:02 Peeano wrote:
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance.


JD will come out 1st unless Snow plays his A game PVZ. JD has been steadily improvely, stacking up games after games in the pro league format with the top pros every night. His ZvT is still shaky, but even that is improving. His ZVZ ZVP are returning to top form.


I hope you're right, JD has had many, many disappointing losses especially in his famous ZvZ ever since SC2 came out. I still remember him losing to HoGiL in Bacchus 2010 and then to Hydra in the MSL of the same year...

In ASL he beat Flash only to lose to Action after, and of course in the last one he got eliminated by Shine. Whenever Tastosis mentions JvZ, I kinda shake my head. What you said sounds promising though!

I hear a lot of hype about JD each season and he (almost) never delivers. Combined with Shuttle's sometimes incredible PvZ, I wouldn't bet on him.
Miragee
Profile Joined December 2009
8716 Posts
February 21 2023 17:19 GMT
#238
On February 21 2023 17:17 IntoTheEmo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2023 16:18 Samsakzerg wrote:
On February 21 2023 11:02 Peeano wrote:
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance.


JD will come out 1st unless Snow plays his A game PVZ. JD has been steadily improvely, stacking up games after games in the pro league format with the top pros every night. His ZvT is still shaky, but even that is improving. His ZVZ ZVP are returning to top form.


I hope you're right, JD has had many, many disappointing losses especially in his famous ZvZ ever since SC2 came out. I still remember him losing to HoGiL in Bacchus 2010 and then to Hydra in the MSL of the same year...

In ASL he beat Flash only to lose to Action after, and of course in the last one he got eliminated by Shine. Whenever Tastosis mentions JvZ, I kinda shake my head. What you said sounds promising though!


Are you talking about the 2010/2011 MSL which Hydra ended up winning? Because Hydra had an insane ZvZ at the time, I would argue the best ZvZ, mostly carried by his muta vs muta micro at the time. He had so many engagements with his first 6 mutas which he ended up winning... His ZvZ carried him to his MSL victory. I looked up his stats just now and he went 11-3 in ZvZ for that MSL with 2 of the 3 losses coming from JD. Yeah it felt disappointing because everyone expected JvZ but people forget Hydras insane ZvZ peak in this, for the sake of fairness fairly short, time frame.

Jaedong really declined overall when SC2 came out and they started to split play time (tbf, so was everyone else to some extend). It was not just his ZvZ. It was just more noticable because it went from "JvZ" to "decent winrate with the usual ZvZ coinflip". And I would argue he has always been struggling with all 3 match ups, ZvT the most, since then, especially in the post-Kespa era. He just never came close again to become the force of nature he used be.

If he is indeed improving again, that would make me very happy. One of my absolute favourite players ever.
Kespa1988
Profile Joined January 2022
118 Posts
February 21 2023 18:52 GMT
#239
Combined with Shuttle's sometimes incredible PvZ, I wouldn't bet on him.


A bit true, although his form has been increasing recently, it is still far from being stable. He has days with ratio 9:1 but also days with ratio 3:7, etc. Personally, I think that JD has enough skills to reach the ASL top four. He happens to win with Bisu or Royal with a nice advantage. What he lacks is the mentality, that sometimes makes him want too much.
Zografa
Profile Joined February 2023
336 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-02-21 19:29:32
February 21 2023 19:25 GMT
#240
Nice we have the groups finally.

About JD - he is top1 on the korean ladder of sponmatches recently(if you isolate for only 2023 results). Playing lots of volume and having decent results vs almost everyone in all matchups.


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