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[BSL12] Ro4 Preview

Forum Index > BW General
27 CommentsPost a Reply
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[BSL12] Ro4 Preview

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
May 27th, 2021 15:29 GMT
logo


Another Bombastic Starleague is nearing its end. This one has been moving at record speed, but aside from that, it's been much the same as other seasons. The two finalists from last season are both still in it.




Table of contents

  • Intro
  •  
  • Bonyth vs Sziky
  •  
  • Trutacz vs TerrOr
  •  
  • (Wiki)Liquipedia


Video Recaps

(Z)Sziky vs (P)Bonyth

If you look solely at past BSL performances, this matchup seems very one-sided. The last time I wrote one of these writeups, I stated that Bonyth had won 3 seasons of BSL in a row. Now, he's at 4. Having followed the scene since 1998, I think that's genuinely unprecedented.

For a short brood war history lesson, we've had dominant players in the past. Looking at the pre-SC2-phase, the following 6 players at some point reached a status where they were almost unanimously regarded as the best player in the scene: Maynard, Grrrr, Slayer, Elky, Mondragon, Idra. (I could mention a whole lot more names as 'contenders – I'll happily expand in the commentary section if inquired to do so ' – but these are the only ones that stand out as being one notch above the entire rest of the competition, not just for one tournament, but for an extended period of time.)

However – and while we didn't really have a competition equalling BSL back then – none of these players managed to win four of the biggest non-korean tournaments in a row. Now, it's a fair point to make that during the earlier phases of the game, there were more people who tried to be competitive, and thus, I'm not going to claim that Bonyth is the GOAT based on his BSL success. Different eras cannot necessarily be compared with other eras. But if one solely takes the period after SC:R was released into consideration, Bonyth's dominance is undeniable, and he's approaching the same legendary status as the aforementioned 6 players.

Sziky on his end, lost in the ro24 in BSL11. He lost in the ro16 in BSL9. He got 7th place in BSL10. Those three performances marks the totality of his BSL participation. Surely he's drawing nearly dead in this competition?

Not necessarily so. I just listed the players that were the most dominant between 1998-2010, and the one who has been the most dominant since 2017, with the release of Starcraft:Remastered.

There's a 6 year period of time missing from this list. And while he wasn't active for the entirety of it, that era is solidly considered the reign of Sziky. From 2010 until 2013, Sziky dominated, hard. In 2013 Teamliquid hosted three Teamliquid Legacy Starleagues. Sziky won all three – going 38-7 in individual games. The main competition for non-korean players during this period was the defiler.ru tournaments. Between 2011 and 2013, Sziky won 21 out of ~60 tournaments that were hosted. (I have to admit, I've been too lazy to check the individual brackets to see how many of these he actually participated in.)

So – from 1998 until today, my list over 'non-korean players that were so dominant that nearly everybody agreed they were the best' numbers 8 in total. And two of them are facing off in this semi-final.

I also think Sziky is a good match for Bonyth. Looking at the best non-korean zerg players, there are three that stand as mechanically superior to the rest: Sziky, Trutacz and Eonzerg. But while the latter two seem to lack a bit of confidence going into games against Bonyth, which makes them turn to allins or aim to finish games quickly – something Bonyth excels against – I don't think we'll see the same from Sziky. Don't get me wrong – he will occasionally end or try to end zvp games with a mass hydra bust. But he's very unlikely to commit to allins from a low hatchery or drone count. Sziky is more the kind of player who enjoys real slugfests – and he excels at them, too. His mutalisk micro is the best in the scene. His macro is really strong. His multitask is really on point. Where I've seen him falter in the past is that his game decision is inconsistent, and he sometimes takes big engagements from bad positions. Still – what I am describing here is essentially 'Hawk, just better' – and Hawk is one player Bonyth has had an uncharacteristically hard time facing off against.

On Bonyth's end, I think we're somewhat likely to see more consistently aggressive builds, because I don't think he wants Sziky to hit his stride. I expect at least one two-gate opening. Aside from that, I expect excellent micro, strong sair+zealot or sair+dt timings, fantastic storms, occasionally lackluster macro. I'm not sure Bonyth is that likely to show off trademark shuttle harassment – because I expect him to have noticed the same thing I have: That Sziky's drop defense is absolutely top notch.

However, this is also an additional argument for why Bonyth will probably focus on amassing – and preserving – a corsair fleet. Sziky's penchant for hydra-muta play and his tendency to always have scourge in the crucial locations required to intercept shuttles means that corsairs stay prominent, and not just 1-2 for scouting and some overlord harassment. If Bonyth forgoes sairs, then he'll almost certainly go into dark archon – but this style of play – hitting a strong anti hydra-muta timing , lining up upgrades and maelstrom, has never been Bonyth's main forte. Even if it's theoretically a very strong approach against Sziky, Bonyth is the champion, and champions tend to play to their own strengths rather than the perceived weaknesses of their opponents.

Now – making my final prediction – I feel compelled to state that I still think Bonyth is overall the better player. If you match Sziky and Bonyth against the other best players in the scene, I expect Bonyth to produce stronger results overall. However, I think this is going to be Bonyth's first elimination from the BSL since 2019, when he lost the semi final of BSL7 against Eonzerg.

Final prediction:

(Z)Sziky Advances to the Grand Finals 3-2!


Group A Recap

(Z)trutaCz vs (T)TerrOr


Trutacz vs Terror are both seasoned BSL veterans. Terror was the finalist from last season, while Trutacz was the finalist from season 9. Trutacz also has three BSL championship belts – but the last one from season 6, which is more than two years ago.

But one can be a top player without actually winning the BSL. His ro16 group was largely considered the group of death, and he escaped unscathed, taking down both Oya and Gypsy 2-0. Following that up with a 3-1 win against Eonzerg, he has shown great prowess in all three matchups. One of the best sources of information for how the top players perform against each other stems from the ThinkQuick Best of the Best tournament – Trutacz ended up in third place, behind Dewalt and Bonyth.

Terror, on his end, has had a great year, and seems to be have maintained his shape from last season. In the Ro16, he first dispatched of Gorynich and Ultra, before taking down fellow Peruvian terran Dandy in the Ro8. Looking at the same Best of the Best tournament, he ended up in 5th place – however, result-wise there was little differentiating him from Trutacz. Both had 7 wins and 4 losses, but Trutacz narrowly edged him out in overall win percentage. In their own head to head match, Trutacz won 3-2.

Terror's group stage games against Gorynich were vintage Terror. In the first game he stayed on 1 base for a long time and had very fast tech, but low marine counts for the longest period of time. In the third game, he instead made 7 barracks before he started his factory. This is a testament to how Terror approaches the game: He certainly has solid mechanics – but he consistently plays the mind-game too. Comparing him with Dandy, Terror's standard SK terran is a bit less polished. But he has a whole slew of tricks up his sleeve. As of late, Terror has enjoyed slightly more success and he has looked like the strongest non-korean terran player – and myself, I attribute this to how many different styles of play he is comfortable employing.

The series against Gorynich also featured some of Terror's trademark multi-pronged attacks – utilizing his main army to pull drop-defense out of position so drops could deal massive damage, and alternatively, utilizing his dropship harassment to pull Gorynich's main army out of position, so his own main army could get in a better spot.

Terror's previous two BSL series against top zerg players are Gorynich this season, and Avi-Love from last season's semi-final. Avi-Love and Gorynich have some similarities in how they approach the game, for one, they're both comfortable going hydra lurker in zvt, and they're less fond of two hatch mutalisk openings – especially against Terror.

Trutacz is a slightly different mold. He has great confidence in his mutalisk micro – justifiably so – and normally, he tends to favor two hatch mutalisk openings. At the same time, he's quite willing to bring out big ling floods, and he will occasionally open two hatch lurker, too. Especially against Terror – it is undeniable that the higher latency makes two hatch mutalisk openings slightly less viable, especially a long-term, committed two hatch mutalisk opening. Looking at his games against Gypsy, he won both with zergling allins, but you should not be fooled into thinking that Trutacz is a one-dimensional player based on this. The reason why his zergling allins are so successful is that his standard game is so strong that people feel compelled to cut whatever corners they can cut.

Trutacz is a complete player – much like Terror, who can execute many different build orders and styles of play. He has excellent mechanics, and a fearsome late game if it goes that far. However, in zerg vs terran, he is usually a micro-oriented player. While both Avi-Love and Gorynich favored hydra-lurker play against Terror, I don't think we will see this from Trutacz. More likely, we will see a combination of different aggressive openings, with very smart tactical decisions being made. Clutch backstabs, cleverly hidden zergling allins, mutalisk fakes into lurker openings – and quite possibly, a completely plain two hatch mutalisk into crazy zerg.

I think this one is also likely to go the distance, and quite frankly, I think it's extremely difficult to differentiate the two. But – seeing how I gave Sziky the edge against Bonyth, I'm going to have to give Terror the edge here, primarily because I hope we get TvZ+PvZ finals rather than ZvZ+PvT.

Final prediction:

(T)TerrOr Advances to the Grand Finals 3-2!



Writers: Liquid`Drone
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR

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TL+ Member
EndingLife
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
United States1598 Posts
May 27 2021 16:13 GMT
#2
Great preview! Well written and informative as always.
Ziggy
Profile Blog Joined June 2013
South Korea2105 Posts
May 27 2021 16:39 GMT
#3
why do u hate Polish players, Eri?
WriterDefeating a sandwich only makes it tastier. @imjustziggy
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28731 Posts
May 27 2021 16:49 GMT
#4
Maybe I just love hungarian and peruvian ones.
Moderator
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4228 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-27 17:07:54
May 27 2021 17:06 GMT
#5
Hilarious writeup. Thanks a lot!

Bonyth for the 5th one in a row go go go
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
ffswowsucks
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
Greece2297 Posts
May 27 2021 18:45 GMT
#6
saying Bonyth will lose to Sziky is a joke.
Terran in particular is a notoriously strong race for a no brain skillhand bot style.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28731 Posts
May 27 2021 18:49 GMT
#7
They played a Bo5 in the best of the best tourney and Sziky won 3-2. It's fine to disagree, I think it's like a 55:45 kind of thing, but these are close matchups.
Moderator
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands5206 Posts
May 27 2021 19:11 GMT
#8
You underestimate the power of a young dad wanting the best for his kid.

I think Sziky dominated foreigners harder during his reign than Bonyth has, but I would say skill wise Bonyth has (had) a higher max. Considering Z is slightly favored that should make it very 50-50 if they're both in good shape.
However so far I haven't seen Sziky's old max yet, so I'm thinking 3-1 for Bonyth.

Sziky lings; I can still hear Sayle repeatedly saying you should never allow Sziky lings in your base.
And Bonyth zealots. Man, I'm almost as excited for this match as for Mini vs Larva.
FBH #1!
ox.tQ
Profile Joined November 2010
797 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-27 19:28:53
May 27 2021 19:21 GMT
#9
Wow, what a majestic write up Liquid`Drone. Real substance and meaty analysis and predictions. Made for a wonderful reading. Thank you!

And yes, you are a precious nearly extinct species my friend, certainly one of the few names I remember from the golden age of BW when X'Ds~, Liquid and [GG] reigned supreme. Unlike you, however, most have not stuck around consistently for so many years, following the scene closely and actively contributing as a community oriented member. You deserve an acknowledgement, as do many BW viewers and TL users who have helped keep the spirit of the community (and our past youth!) alive all these years. Hats off to them all!
https://www.twitch.tv/TeamThinkQuickTTV *** https://trovo.live/TeamThinkQuickTTV *** https://play.afreecatv.com/axtqttv
Szinkler
Profile Joined July 2018
Hungary394 Posts
May 27 2021 19:33 GMT
#10
Really great preview, worthy of these legends.
I've been rooting for Bonyth a lot but now it's time for Sziky!
Gogo Sziky!
Holint_Casazr
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Germany72 Posts
May 27 2021 20:38 GMT
#11
I really want Sziky in the finals, bringing me back to the days where all the top foreign tournaments where ZvZ from the semi-finals onwards (Sziky, TT, eon & technics). I like Bonyth a lot and he always is a pleasure to watch but its time to have another champion for BSL.

However, while Sziky is a great player and has moments of brilliance it does not feel like he is on the level he once was (though he is getting closer and closer with each season since his return).

Heart wants Sziky, head says Bonyth.
fearthequeen
Profile Joined November 2011
United States788 Posts
May 27 2021 23:19 GMT
#12
On May 28 2021 03:45 ffswowsucks wrote:
saying Bonyth will lose to Sziky is a joke.

I doubt you read the write up before coming to this conclusion.
NAKR`flying
MineraIs
Profile Joined September 2020
United States846 Posts
May 28 2021 03:51 GMT
#13
I am a big fan of bony but GOGO SZIKYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
✯ [ twitch.tv/MrMineraIs ] ✯ [ Check out my Maps: https://tl.net/forum/brood-war/612442-official-maps-by-minerals ] ✯
masoka82
Profile Joined June 2020
Spain594 Posts
May 28 2021 08:13 GMT
#14
H-Y-P-E!!
BSL Forever
kogeT
Profile Joined September 2013
Poland2041 Posts
May 28 2021 09:03 GMT
#15
Sziky showing true fighters spirit. It is has been many months since he came back from "inactivity" and he keeps on grinding crazy amount of games, participate in every major league, and finally starting to show significant results. One could say he came back and exceeded his hights from 2011-2012 era.
https://www.twitch.tv/kogetbw
ffswowsucks
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
Greece2297 Posts
May 28 2021 18:10 GMT
#16
On May 28 2021 08:19 fearthequeen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2021 03:45 ffswowsucks wrote:
saying Bonyth will lose to Sziky is a joke.

I doubt you read the write up before coming to this conclusion.


I read all of it. and i just dont see Sziky managing to get 3 wins over Bonyth.
now did you know I was on top of the liquidbet? My predictions aren't that bad.

Guess we will find out soon enough.
Terran in particular is a notoriously strong race for a no brain skillhand bot style.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28731 Posts
May 28 2021 19:06 GMT
#17
Analysis with predictions are not validated or invalidated by being correct or incorrect. I'm not particularly surprised if Bonyth wins 3-1 here. If both players are completely evenly matched and each game is a coin flip, then if my math is correct, there's a 10% chance of either winning 3-0, 30% chance of either winning 3-1, and 60% chance of a 3-2 outcome. If Bonyth wins 3-0, then it most likely indicates that I exaggerated Sziky's chances, but meh, not even that would be conclusive.

Now, if we see Sziky play like Ty2, alternating between various weird allins, be it lair cancel into 3h hydra, ling+lurker allin or speedling into 2h muta, my analysis is wrong, and if that happens, I'll be very surprised.

Anyway, the previous time they played a bo5 (that was casted and with money involved, I dunno what they do in their spare time), Sziky won 3-2. You can have a look here:
(starts around 1 hour 5 minutes). It's highly conceivable (likely, even) that Bonyth is better suited for a BSL style bo5 with 1 week preparation than what he is for a bo5 without preparation (seeing how his mechanics isn't his strongest point) - so expecting Bonyth to perform better here is reasonable - but there's no way you can watch that series and conclude that Sziky is drawing dead.
Moderator
ZZZero.O
Profile Joined July 2011
Poland1574 Posts
May 28 2021 23:06 GMT
#18
Eriador, you are the hero ! <3

Thank you for this amazing preview, I really appreciate that <3

Btw. Ask your wife if you have choosen the right nations to advance Kappa
https://www.patreon.com/Bombastic || https://liquipedia.net/starcraft/Bombastic_StarLeague || https://linktr.ee/bombastic
BulgarianToss
Profile Joined May 2011
Bulgaria490 Posts
May 29 2021 09:45 GMT
#19
Very nice preview, Eriador! I was beginning to think nobody else remembers exactly how dominant Sziky used to be before the Remastered era. One of many examples was his performance on the Fish battlenet server where he would occasionally play the korean pro's and win 3-1 vs a top Terran like Last, Light or Sharp (I remember seeing it on one of their streams, just not sure which one of these players he beat). I also think Sziky has been showing glimpses of his former shape lately so I don't think this series will be one-sided. Of course Bonyth has been doing pretty much the same after he took over the scene and is just as dominant nowadays so the games are going to be great!
music is the best thing in the world
earob84
Profile Joined October 2017
Germany175 Posts
May 29 2021 12:27 GMT
#20
Great read! hoping for a Bonyth vs. Terror re-Final.
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