As of late, professional Brood War looks like it’s trying very hard to turn on its head. With a bunch of big names going to the military and sudden surges or declines in form, there’s been a significant influx of new blood and shifting of layers. This has inevitably led to upsets being so common that they should stop being called upsets. Group F is no exception in its upset potential. Spearheaded by a convenient favorite and three players that tend to produce unexpected results, there’s no telling what could happen.

Best, the group’s frontrunner on paper, returns this ASL again in hopes of the top finish that has eluded him ever since ASL2. He’s basically the pinnacle of macro Protoss evolution and is considered a Protoss versus Terran specialist. His online win rates confirm this with a steady 60-65% against everyone except Flash and Last.

This is not good news for his Terran adversary and group underdog, JyJ. JyJ has improved lately to qualify for back-to-back tournaments while notably eliminating Snow 2-0 in the qualifiers for KSL2, but he has yet to win a match in the group stage. His online stats of 51.9% versus Protoss since June are not too reassuring either. Best should be considered the definite favorite to win, but he should not underestimate his less experienced opponent, lest he become another headline in the upset bonanza. Multiverse is a funny map with some luck involved in the starting positions, and JyJ should come prepared.

The other starting match is something of an opportunity for Terran veteran Light (after a brief stint playing Protoss) to redeem himself after a series of unexpected early exits versus Zerg. His failures against ggaemo, Modesty, and Where (his opponent again this week) seem to come from absolutely disastrous build order losses. Maybe he just hasn’t adapted to the evolving world of TvZ yet.

He’s been as tenacious as ever online, however, with win rates in non-mirror matchups above 65% on all maps with fairly large sample sizes of more than 150 games each month. He did lose 0-2 to Sacsri in the Seoul qualifier final, but in light of Sacsri’s match versus Flash, this is not the upset it would have been mere months ago.

Where, for his part, is the complete opposite: he has zero sponmatches played since June, so it seems he’s preparing his abusive builds in secret. His win against Snow and subsequent loss to Ample in their KSL3 group showed again that despite being dangerous early on, if Where fails at his initial aggression, he seems somewhat lost in a longer game. Multiverse is a map that is conducive to the funky plays he prefers, but Light is no doubt aware of the possibilities and I certainly hope he has learned from his past mistakes. It might come down to luck with positions and Light keeping his nerve, but I expect him to redeem himself and advance to the winners match.

Best versus Light on Neo Sylphid could be a funny match. Both players excel mechanically and have very strong macro, Best probably more so. But the map’s flat nature and somewhat wider natural choke provide opportunity for early aggressive builds. Best lost to Sharp’s brilliant tactics on Sylphid last season, but otherwise there are few results to help predict this matchup. Best can reasonably be expected to try to force the game to the Verdun-scale battles of attrition he excels at whereas Light might very well try to turn up the heat at any moment and opt out of the classic 2-1 push. I consider Best the favorite here by a small margin, but a Light win is not at all impossible.

The losers match should pit JyJ versus Where. The two faced before in the ASL7 losers match, and the Zerg player prevailed. Offline experience and general deviousness are on Where’s side, but JyJ will definitely come prepared. Online statistics are not on his side, however, as he struggles to keep a positive win rate in the matchup. He currently sits at an unconvincing 45.6% since June, and while he did defeat ggaemo 2-0 in the Jeonju qualifier, Where overcame ForGG equally convincingly in Seoul. All in all, in the cutthroat ASL format, players like Where have an edge. Should JyJ navigate his way out of his opponent’s aggression early on, he might have a decent chance at advancing to the final match, but still he should be considered the underdog.

A rematch between Light and Where does not at all seem out of place for a final match in group F. Standard rules apply for Where—he could easily take the game with a special build and a slip from Light—but Light has a convincing 69% win percentage on Neo Ground Zero and a definite advantage. Assuming no shenanigans, expect Light to qualify to the Ro16.


Prediction:
Best > JyJ
Light > Where
Best > Light
JyJ < Where
Light > Where

Best and Light advance to the Ro16!