EPTGroup A:
fnatic/Team Dynamic/World Elite/Azubu Blaze
fnatic –
I’m not going to lie, I had an entire write up for Alternate done and dusted when news broke that due to some sponsors withdrawing they will not be attending IPL5. Enter fnatic who are riding high after their success at Dreamhack Winter, where they defeated CLG.eu 2-1 displaying some innovative strats and disciplined play. Fnatic quite literally have nothing to lose – they weren’t expected to even be playing at this tournament, so any achievement is a bonus. That being said they are a level above Alternate and make this group absolutely fearsome. The roster is made up of very solid veteran players with tons of experience, as you’d expect from a team that is a former world champion (they won season 1 remember? Of course you do). xPeke, Cyanide, nRated and sOAZ are all very solid and sOAZ in particular commands attention as you really don’t want to play against his Jax; of course he’s just as deadly on numerous other top lane champions. The champ that I expect to see banned out in all fnatic games is actually nRated’s support Zyra. Not only is support Zyra a terror in lane as other teams in Europe found out at Dreamhack, but it allows fnatic to play a brusier in the midlane as a counter to specific champions (see xPeke Jax vs. Froggen Karthus g3 Dreamhack finals). With nRated building AP Zyra with some gp5 items, he is able to provide enough magic damage to prevent armor stacking from being effective. Fnatic are coming off success and they’d like to continue their rise back to prominence as one of the world’s top teams. They have shown that they are capable of it.
Best Case Scenario:
Fnatic continue their form and are able to get top 2 in their group, or they are able to go on a run through the lower bracket, they are able to upset a TPA or an M5 on the way to a top 8 placing. They are able to achieve a the top placing of any European team
Worst Case Scenario:
Fnatic are the victim of their some horrible draw getting 3rd in the group and then get either M5 or TPA in the first round of the loser bracket after one of those teams drops a game. They make an inglorious early exit.
Fearless Prediction:
I don’t think they’ll get out of the group…the group is just too tough, for me WE and Blaze are both real threats to win the entire tournament, but in the lower bracket, you’re looking at a team that will do some damage throughout bracket and they will upset a favourite or two.
Team Dynamic –
The North American representation in group A, Team Dynamic is one of the most consistent teams in the North American scene and they are back in Las Vegas where they had their big breakout tournament at IPL4, finishing 4th. Despite being such a solid and consistent team, there has been a degree of uncertainty in the roster, whic, to me, is somewhat surprising. Dontmashme has replaced Zig at AD Carry and and TakashiX has replaced Paradoxical at AP mid. TakashiX has a tall task having to go up against the top laners in this group, all of which are top tier. Despite these changes Dynamic still plays their wild and aggressive playstyle which should make the games against Blaze and WE a joy to watch, just to see the rampant aggression from all sides. NindendudeX remains one of the most forceful junglers in North America especially on his beloved Olaf which can really become a true terror from the jungle. ZionSpartan is a capable top, and has a pretty deep champion pool, from Nidalee to Jax, he’s certainly capable of carrying a lane, but he remains weak to 2v1 lanes. Overall, TD has the tendency to look like a team that just picks their best champions and then goes into game and play extremely well. However, I think this approach will fall flat against teams with more talent and preparation than TD.
Best Case Scenario:
TakashiX is capable of holding his own, and capable of emulating TD’s very unique play style and they go on a run though the lower bracket, establishing them as a team once again on the rise
.
Worst Case Scenario:
TakashiX is not able to hold his own lane and does not fit in, the Asian teams are actually more aggressive than TD, making TD the more passive team (for once). TD minus zig and Paradoxical don’t play with the same reckless abandon that make the ‘old’ TD one of the top North American teams.
Fearless Prediction:
Dynamic is a team in transition and I’m not quite sure what they are transitioning into. They have had success in Las Vegas before but those were in the blissful days where we thought Asian teams would be steamrolled by TSM. TD’s style is their own, but with a week to prepare for TD and poke holes in their style, I see TD finishing bottom of their group, where they are capable of a run in the lower bracket, but equally capable of flaming out without a victory. Success will not be in the cards for TD in Las Vegas
World Elite
World Elite is one of the hardest teams to predict in this tournament. Are we going to get the WE team that looked absolutely amazing at the Season 2 championship and won the World e-Sports Masters? Or are we getting the WE team that looked so mediocre in going out to CLG.eu at Azubu The Champions Summer 2012 or to Curse.na at IPL Face Off: San Francisco Showdown? Their recent form indicates that it is the former rather than the latter but one does wonder if we are due another limp display rather than the dominant WE team of late. This team is stacked with talent from Misaya in mid, to Caomei in the top lane to Weixiao being arguably the best AD carry in the world. They are by far the best team in mainland China. The only question mark in this lineup is Fzzf who for a top team is not the greatest support even though Weixiao is an amazing AD carry. World Elite are comfortable in playing the Korean ‘fast play style’ as well as the more laid back ‘Western’ style and will clearly be a threat to win the entire tournament.
Best Case Scenario:
They escape the group without falling victim to an unfortunate upset and are able to use that position to avoid their nemesis CLG.eu in the top bracket (CLG.eu has knocked WE out of 2 major tournaments in a row). Someone is silly enough to leave up Twisted Fate for Misaya and we get to marvel at the world’s #1 Twisted Fate player.
Wost Case Scenario:
The complacent WE of the months leading up to Season 2 Championships re-emerges and they fall to their bogie team, CLG.eu.
Fearless Prediction:
WE wins their group and the whole tournament. This team is in amazing form and is scary, scary good.
Azubu Blaze
You know it’s a tough tournament when Azubu Blaze are not considered one of the heavy favourites, however getting 2-0’d by the previously unheralded KT Rolster B team has caused some doubts in the Blaze camp for the first time in a long while. They still are coming off a dominating performance at the last MLG, but the competition at IPL is much deeper than that tournament. Plus they won MLG with Shy subbing in the top lane, their current top laner, Flame, has failed to be a force in the way that Reapered was. Is it just a matter of getting Flame to fit in to the Blaze lineup, or has the loss of Reapered made them a worse team? Despite replacing their top laner, Ambition is an excellent mid laner while the bot lane of Lustboy and CptJack is one of the most feared and respected in the world. In the jungle is arguably the top jungler in the world – Helios. Watching him since his stateside debut at MLG Summer Arena he has never failed to impress in making clutch plays and seemingly being everywhere at once; his play makes all the other laners that much better because they have such a dominating jungler behind them. I hesitate to call Blaze in a slump, but it is big news when they lose 2-0. They are in a tough group, and any slip up to a fnatic or TD could see them playing extra games in the lower bracket. I do think on paper that they are the 2nd best team in this group and a threat to win the whole tournament, but a bo1 group stage is going to have some funky results.
Best Case Scenario:
They escape the group stage and manage to get a matchup with a team not named M5 or TPA in the next round, which could give them one ‘easy’ round in this entire tournament. In terms of their team, they prove that Flame can replace Repeared top and their loss to KT Rolster B is simply a fluke or a growing pain and the go back to their normal, curb stomping selves.
Wost Case Scenario:
They have a game taken off them by fnatic or TD and thus go into the loser’s bracket super early and they are not able to summon the stamina required to attain a top result due to attrition.
Fearless Prediction:
2nd in the group, which sets up potentially an incredibly tough road to the finals, having to play the winner of group D (likely M5 or TPA, yikes). I think whatever road they take they’ll certainly be in the top 4, at the very least
Group B:
Fear/CLG.eu/CLG.na/IceLanD
Team Fear-
Fear is an interesting team. Equally capable of looking absolutely dominant or completely useless, often in back to back games, they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the world. People often say team Fear is Aphromoo’s team, but I think that severely underrates mancloud who is a very solid mid laner and can be expected to make some plays. Of course Aphromoo and muffinqt are a really strong bot lane duo and any expected success will be on the back of that, but other teams are aware of this as well and will work extra hard to nullify Aphromoo. Gosu Zuna is assumedly the top laner, despite not being officially signed by the team, he has been the consistent sub in the top lane for various TSM tournaments and scrims. Gosu Zuna is arguably the key to the team, because of the laners on Fear he is considered the weakest and teams will either focus on that, hoping to put him far behind, or leave him alone and hope their top laner will be able to come out ahead. If Zuna can make the most of his opportunities and stay relevant the entire game while mancloud and Aphromoo are able to power up – than Fear are a scary team indeed. Xmithie is arguably the weakest link on the team, capable of great play but also tending to make one or two horrifically awful plays that leave the audience facepalming. This team also does not have the best record at LAN’s, whether it is going out with a whimper at the Lone Star Classic, MLG Summer Championship or Season 2 NA regionals, this team has never performed well in a LAN environment. Clearly this is something that has to change, and the team has the experience to change it, it’s a matter of just performing. This is a group that Fear can get out of, but they will have to eliminate their inconsistency and their tendency to underperform at LANs.
Best Case Scenario:
The LAN jitters are eliminated, and they are able to knock off one of the CLG teams to get to the upper bracket, where they are able to play solid games against the top teams.
Worst Case Scenario:
The inconsistent Team Fear showcases itself in the worst way possible and while they are able to take a game off of CLG.na and get the hype train started, they immediately turn around and lose to IceLanD, dropping them into the lower bracket where they are eliminated with a whimper.
Fearless Prediction:
While I believe in my heart that Team Fear can do quite well, it wouldn’t shock me if they flamed out spectacularly as well. In my mind they are one of the hardest teams to predict, because they have talent, but have clearly not gelled completely as a team. I see them finishing 3rd in the group and being one of the first teams out of the lower bracket. Sorry Aphro.
CLG.eu
CLG.eu is a team in an odd place. They are the western team with the best results against Asian teams (Yes, I know M5 beat iG, CLG.eu has consistent results over Asian teams), and this would put them in good stead in a tournament where the heavy favourites are Asian teams. However coming off what has to be a disappointing loss to fnatic, there are questions to be asked about CLG.eu. Have they traveled too much? Has their stay in North America hurt them without having been able to set a consistent training regimen? We don’t know the answer yet, but what we do know is that CLG.eu is one of the toughest teams to eliminate from a tournament, with their tenacious late game play. Froggen has looked as good as ever and his Anivia remains an absolute must ban, but he’s the only member of CLG.eu that hasn’t appeared to have a slight drop off in their play recently. I don’t think that Wickd, Snoopeh, Krepo and Yellowpete are getting worse, but I don’t think they’ve been at their best either. Unfortunately in such as stacked tournament they need everyone to be playing at their top form if they are to achieve the result that their fans crave.
Best Case Scenario:
Their Dreamhack loss to fnatic proves to be just a blip on the radar, or a kick in the rear for CLG.eu to get back into top gear. They emerge from their group comfortably where they are lucky enough to avoid TSM in the Winner’s round 1. From there they are able to defeat WE for the 8,000th time in a row and are able to launch an assault on a top 3 place, a realistic goal for the team in this tournament.
Worst Case Scenario:
Fear manages to sneak a game off of CLG.eu and then they drop another game to their brother team in CLG.na, moving them shockingly to the lower bracket, I don’t think this is going to happen, but hey it’s worst case scenario!
Fearless Prediction: I think that a CLG.eu playing at the top of their game could conceivably win a tournament like IPL5, but given their recent performance and hectic travelling schedule, the clearly are not at their best. They’ll emerge from their group with ease, as they are still more talented and consistent than the other 3 teams in their group. There is a possibility of an easier matchup against Curse.eu in the second round or a Europe/North America clash vs. TSM, both of which are winnable but it would not shock me to see CLG.eu get dropped by either of those teams. But I’m willing to be proven wrong!
CLG.na
CLG.na is in a peculiar stage of their transition at this current moment. They’ve acquired Locodoco, moved Chauster into the jungle and put HotshotGG back into top lane and we now get to see this lineup for the second time in a LAN environment. At MLG Fall Championships they achieved a respectable 4th place knocking out Curse.na, and Dignitas before falling 2-1 to CLG.eu. Theoretically the team should be only growing stronger as the team gels into this new look CLG.na. HotshotGG has looked better in the top lane than he did in the jungle, though questions remain about his ability to compete against the elite top laners that populate this tournament. Bigfatlp remains one of North America’s premier mid laners, but although his teamfighting remains excellent, his ability to farm isn’t quite at the top level. Chauster has really embraced the role of jungler, giving CLG.na presence from the jungle which they have lacked since Saintvicious left the team. Locodoco and Doublelift haven’t quite been able to form the sort of bot lane co-ordination that Doublelift and Chauster had, but Loco is still figuring out the support role and his relationship to Doublelift in lane. There is a saying that ‘A team is more than a sum of its parts’ and we see this with CLG.eu and other top teams, but I can’t help shake the feeling that CLG.na is kinda exactly the sum of its parts at the current moment. While that seems callous, that is only something that can be expected for a team that has had so much roster turmoil recently. I believe that the changes will eventually pay dividends, but this is not the tournament that they will be showcased in.
Best Case Scenario: They emerge from their relatively weak group, where their next game will probably be a winnable one against TSM or Crs.eu. They perform admirably against the heavyweight teams in the tournament, giving hope to all CLG.na fans that they will return to the pinnacle of North American LoL. Being the top placed NA team is also a reasonable goal.
Worst Case Scenario: Either Team Fear or Iceland are shockingly able to take a game off of CLG.na (and wouldn’t it be CLG.na like to completely underestimate the Hong Kong qualifier and lose that game?) and they drop to the loser bracket where they are dropped from the tournament anonymously, leading to questions about whether their roster moves are for the best.
Fearless Prediction: Whatever happens there will be 800 threads on reddit about it. Oh wait, that is not fearless at all! I’m confident in their ability to get out of this group and perhaps make it past the first round in the top bracket, given their likely opponents, but past that…CLG.na is not ready to take on the top teams in Europe or Asia.
IceLanD
I’m not going to pretend to be an expert about this team. I did watch what VoDs were available for this team, but given that there are no recent VoDs available I am hesitant to use them as any sort of benchmark considering the opposition looked less than impressive at times. However we have learned to not underestimate these unheralded Asian teams. However, with a distinct lack of pressure and the chance that any of the group’s ‘bigger’ teams will underestimate them, there is absolutely the possibility of an upset. Also helping them is that they can get a detailed scouting report on any of the teams in their group, just by watching VoDs while the other teams in this group would have to do some real searching to find any current information about what the various members of IceLanD play and their potential strats. I do worry about a semi-pro team attending their first big LAN in the time suck that is Las Vegas, an easy place to get distracted!
Best Case Scenario: They win a game in the group stage after being hilariously underestimated. Even in my sunniest prediction, it seems impossible for this team to actually get out of the group stage, but they could potentially beat a team like a Meat Playground in the lower bracket should the brackets break that way. In short, any performance that doesn’t draw immediate comparisons to the ill-fated ‘Armageddon’ team of the recent IEM Singapore tournament would be a success.
Worst Case Scenario : They get accurately compared to ‘Armageddon’
Fearless Prediction : Being an absolute unknown has its share of advantages, but a lack of LAN and traveling experience combined with a reasonably tough group makes 0-3 and directly out of the tournament seem inherently reasonable.
Group C
Meat Playground/Curse.eu/Singapore Sentinels/TSM
Meat Playground-
The real achievement for Meat Playground is that they actually were able to qualify for this event, and I don’t mean that as a slight – whenever you’re team qualifies and one of the ‘big 3’ in NA doesn’t you’ve done something right! (I’m looking at you Dignitas) That being said, Meat Playground is an average to below average team in the NA scene, a scene that hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory over the past few international events. Pobelter is undoubtedly the most recognizable player on Meat Playground, and he certainly is a capable mid laner. xHazzard will be fondly remembered for his barnstorming performance at MLG Anaheim where his play was spectacular, however he has faded off the professional scene slightly, bouncing around the disbanded Monomaniac Dominatus squad and now onto Meat Playground. Lightsludge and Lemongod is an average bot lane combo, while NK Inc is a somewhat underrated jungle presence. However this team lacks LAN experience and it has to be said unfortunately, talent. While on their day Pobelter and xHazzard can survive in the NA scene their results in the Solomid weekly series have seen them lose series to second tier teams like Chuuper's Troopers and AL.na, not exactly the best North America has to offer, though they did eliminate TSM last week as well. Meat Playground will look to surprise, but unless they’ve been sandbagging recently, they don’t look capable of results at IPL5.
Best Case Scenario: They lucked out in the group stage getting TSM, Singapore Sentinels and the troubled Curse.eu, so it is conceivable they could beat two of those teams in a bo1 series. I believe if they were to finish top 2 in their group they would be overjoyed with that.
Worst Case Scenario: What else is there to say? They lose their games, they go and get to enjoy Vegas for a few days, tough break yo.
Fearless Prediction: Curse.eu allegedly being out of practice fogs this group up quite a bit, but I think even a half strength Curse.eu could take out Meat Playground given the relative superiority of the EU scene. I predict we will see why Pobelter’s nickname is ‘Throwbelter’ at least once this tournament.
Curse.eu
Curse.eu was all set to be my dark horse pick in this tournament, coming off their success in Tales of the Lane, until SuperAZE quit the team this week, revealing that the team has been partying excessively after their tournament win and that they are out of practice. They didn’t perform too badly at Dreamhack Winter, though they failed to emerge from the group stage after a 3 way tie. Patoy joins as a sub for this tournament, and fortunately Patoy is an extremely capable support, one of the best in the North American scene. Malunoo, extinct and Anguish remain some of Europe’s best at their positions while, Creaton has proved to be a capable new addition to the lineup. There is actually not a lot to say about Curse.eu, we know that on their day they are capable of being one of the best teams in Europe, but with their support player deciding that he’d rather leave the team than put up with the behavior exhibited by the team – that says a lot. I also don’t think it’s a great omen if you’re team was partying too hard and you’re next tournament is in Las Vegas… I don’t quite see that working out well for Curse.eu.
Best Case Scenario:
SuperAZE quitting the team was just a ruse, and the team has been practicing hard since their win at Tales of the Lane. Patoy proves to be an adequate replacement and they are able to continue their momentum from their tournament win, not their mediocre performance at Dreamhack.
Worst Case Scenario:
Team partying + tournament in Las Vegas = success?
Fearless Prediction:
Curse.eu is somewhat bailed out by the fact their group isn’t all that strong. Even at half strength, they should be able to dispatch Meat Playground. The key match will be against Singapore Sentinals and TSM, the probably only need one victory to move into the upper bracket, but with the team in flux, I just don’t see it. Curse.eu flames out.
Singapore Sentinels
A team that is rarely seen upon the shores of North America, their only appearance was a disappointing stateside debut at IPL Face Off where they did beat Curse.na, before falling meekly to TSM and MTW.na(now Fear Gaming). Their recent performances have been uneven; at the World e-Sports Masters 2012 they lost to IM, and then iG, a good Chinese team, but not the best that region has to offer. They did take a game off of Taipei Assasins at the recent Garena Premier League finals which is nothing to sniff at. They were at some points considered the second best team in the Southeast Asian scene, but that has been under question for a while now with some of the other teams, including Saigon Jokers gaining some momentum. The Indonesian team remains a huge wildcard to most of the world and their inconsistency leaves them slightly difficult to predict.
Best Case Scenario:
Blessed with a group that involves North America’s weakest team in the tournament and a European team that has devolved into debauchery, only TSM really looks formidable, though Curse.eu and Meat Playground aren’t complete pushovers. They make it out of the group, but that is as far as they can go as they just aren’t talented enough to compete against the best in the world.
Worst Case Scenario:
Their win against TPA proves to be a fluke and they are dominated by the ‘western’ teams, leading to a swift exit.
Fearless Prediction:
I feel that everything is breaking for this team getting out of the group. First a sweethart of a draw, and then having Curse.eu, the on paper, second best team in the group imploding somewhat, I think they’ll make it out of the group and surprise some people. I think the pro teams really underestimate the South East Asian scene…which is odd because TPA plays there and any team that has to play against TPA on a consistent basis is going to pick up a few tricks.
TSM:
TSM is yet another team enduring a period of transition. They’ve had to move at least once due to some sloppiness regarding privacy issues, which always sucks and makes it much harder to set up a practice routine. What has raised alarm bells is their performance in the recent weekly TSM tournaments which have been dire to say the least, getting 2-0’d by Curse and then losing 2-1 to Meat Playground, and the week before that losing to Curse and TD 2-1. For the first time in a long while there are not only doubts of TSM being able to compete against the best of the rest of the world, but their dominion over North America is being threatened by a resurgence of the dormant powers of Curse and CLG.na. They’ve even stopped streaming so much and have appeared to have settled into a pattern of scrimmages against other North American teams, which their fans have been pleading for the team to do for a long time now. TSM remains stacked with talent as ever. Dyrus has been regarded as the best top laner in North America, it is hard to remember the last time there was even competition for that role. He has been expanding his champion pool and TSM fans hope he will return to his dominating ways. Reginald remains one of the reasons that TSM is so solid. While he might not be the best individual player, Regi’s game sense and shot calling are unmatched in North America. He doesn’t play too many champs, but the ones he does play, he plays very well. Oddone has actually kind of struggled in big tournaments, but he’s still quite solid in the jungle and very rarely does he get out-smited. The bot lane of Chaox and Xpecial has been the most consistent in North America and they have performed very well against even top teams. I think there is a general sense that Chaox and Xpecial have dropped off slightly from their peak and that may be true, but they are still very, very good together. TSM has always executed teamfights well and they actually theorycraft pretty well too, with Kayle Top and their Global Ult compositions allowing them to surprise enemy teams. TSM is also the team of IPL, having won IPL4 and IPL Face Off, they are comfortable at LANs and should know exactly what they are up against in terms of the other top teams
Best Case Scenario:
I believe that it would take something of a minor miracle for TSM to actually win this tournament, but if everything comes together for them, a top 3 result would be a signal that TSM isn’t in a slump and they are a contender heading into season 3. They are also extremely fortunate with their group draw and if they avoid CLG.eu, who has had their number as of late, they could progress deep into the tournament before they play one of the true contenders.
Worst Case Scenario:
I actually can’t see TSM not making it out of the group stage. It would actually boggle the mind to see them not make it out, but the worst case scenario is a matchup with CLG.eu in the ‘Round 2’ which I would make TSM to be the underdogs in. From there the lower bracket is a minefield of teams which is a gauntlet I can’t see TSM running.
Fearless Prediction:
I really, really want to predict TSM to do well. They have an easy-ish group and potentially winnable Round 2 matchup against a CLG.na or a Team Fear. I can’t see them beating any of the top favourites, they just haven’t shown anything recently to suggest that they are capable of that. They’ll finish around 6th or so.
Group D:
Curse.na/TPA/M5/Blackbean
Curse.na
Curse.na is a funny team. In theory roster changes make your team worse, as it takes a while to develop chemistry, but every roster change Curse seems to make, makes Curse a seemingly stronger team. Whether it is Voyboy rediscovering what made him one of one of North America’s best top laners, or Rhux coming into the support role and looking like he’s been there the whole time, Curse have found a way to adapt and get stronger with each addition to their team. Voyboy is going to be in tough in the group stages, playing against Darien and Stanley, but if he can hold his own, that bodes well for Curse. Saintvicious in the jungle remains an ever controversial presence and leader, but given a team with many laid back personalities, having someone like Saint calling the shots and prowling the jungle is a good thing. His duo queing with Nyjacky appears to have increased the understanding between the two, leading many to think that Nyjacky will be the key to Curse.na’s success. Nyjacky can actually make a realistic claim to being the number one AP mid player in North America. His Morgana is reaching insta ban status and his Orianna is often just as deadly. Rhux and Cop are a bit of a wildcard. Cop is to me, severely underrated, but his play is admittedly not very flashy in the way that Doublelift, Aphromoo or Rekkles is. That being said there is something to be said for the ad carry player being a bit on the cautious side as when he dies things can often fall apart without a consistent DPS output. Having Saintvicious on junglers like Mundo and Voyboy preferring diving champions like Irelia, it is often up to the support on Curse, be it Elementz or Rhux to peel for Cop, leaving him often exposed in team fights, so there is a reason he is overly cautious!
Best Case Scenario:
There is a small, but not insignificant chance that Curse.na can emerge from their group, but I don’t like their chances against a WE or Azubu Blaze. Their best bet for a solid finish might actually be an epic run through the lower bracket where they can build momentum until they have to play one of the top favourites. Being the top North American team would be a best case scenario.
Worst Case Scenario:
A group like this one is pretty much the Worst Case scenario getting world champion TPA along with European heavyweights M5. A worst case scenario is that during a close loss to one of the two favourites, Curse falls victim to some infighting and that ruins their chances at performing in the lower bracket.
Fearless Prediction:
Curse.na might actually be the North American team with the best form coming in, but their group is an absolute nightmare. Put them into Group B or C and I think they get out of both those groups. I can’t see them beating M5 or TPA unless one of those teams has entered a major slump. I do like their chances in the lower bracket, but that all depends on the teams that they get placed up against. I like them for a surprise 6th or 7th.
Moscow Five
I’m going to be upfront and say that M5 are my favourite team, so any bias can be attributed to myself, however I think I can be (somewhat) impartial. The team that M5 get compared most to are the DOTA2 team Na'vi who are renown for a couple of things – being one of the few foreign teams that can compete with the Asian teams, and their ability to perform at LAN tournaments. While a 3rd place at the Tales of the Lane is not the best result, the idea that this constitutes a slump is a bizarre one to stay the least. How often do we see M5 get beaten online by some mid-tier European team, only to show up at the next LAN and wreck faces? M5 are big tournament players and they have proven it in the past. M5 remains playing their unique playstyle. While some have just reduced it to the idea of ‘aggression’ M5 is more than that term implies. The word I would use is ‘pressure.’ This is why M5 love the idea of counter jungling, or AP eve mid, because each of those brings a certain degree of pressure. With a roaming Eve mid, you pressure all lanes at once, just by the fact that once Eve is not seen, there is instantly pressure in all other lanes. Counter jungling is the same, it’s the idea that all laners are going to instantly have to react to a potential counter jungle, thus they are limited in their options. M5 even team fight with the concept of pressure. A recent favourite of M5 has been Xin Zhao, who’s ult is one of the best displacements in the game, which again puts pressure onto the opposing team, because protecting a carry is hard enough, it becomes much harder when a Xin can quickly change you’re defensive formation into one that is advantageous for M5. There is no doubting the individual talent of M5, and people forget that they only lost 2-1 to TPA, so they are still pretty darn good.
Best Case Scenario:
Avoid upset in the group and somehow avoid the expected matchup with Blaze or WE is the best case scenario, I think they can certainly beat WE and Blaze, and if they can get past that hurdle, they will face one of the teams from Group B and C, none of which should really phase M5 (though a match with CLG.eu would prove extremely interesting). In a true best case scenario M5 will win the whole tournament.
Worst Case Scenario:
Their imagined slump becomes a real slump and they don’t make it out of the group stage, where they defeat the expected teams to lose to an up and coming team like fnatic or Curse.na
Fearless Prediction:
M5 are one of the few teams that could conceivably take this entire tournament, but I still have trouble putting them above WE and TPA which I believe are the class of this tournament. I think they’ll finish 4th while tantalizing us with the dream of a ‘western’ winner.
Taipei Assassins
What is there left to say about the defending World Champions? This team as far as I can see has no weaknesses and several outstanding players. Stanley is arguably the star of the team, being an implacable enemy in the top lane, with probably the widest array of champions that he can bust out at any time. Toyz is arguably the best AP mid player in the world and his Orianna is a true terror. The bot lane of Mistake and Bebe is solidly good, but has had its minor setbacks. Lilbalz is really, really good in the jungle and provides the support that can snowball the game easily. TPA also theorycrafts extremely well, they know how to play many different team comps, from Stanley’s splitpush all day Nidalee to more standard play. When what qualifies as a setback is losing one game, you know that you have achieved something. In this tournament they will have to prove themselves time and again against top teams and will get an epic rematch with M5 in the group stage.
Best Case Scenario
The pocketbooks of TPA get fatter as they take down the entire tournament
Worst Case Scenario
It’s hard to conceive of a situation where TPA doesn’t get out of the group except for a bout of food poisoning weakening TPA. I guess a worst case scenario is them not winning the entire tournament. Must be nice….
Fearless Predicition:
2nd Place to WE.
Blackbean
Last but certainly not…. Something, we have Blackbean. Again I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on a team I’ve barely seen play. What we do know is that they beat Bangkok Titans to reach IPL5 and while that may not seem like the biggest of deals, with Bangkok Titans the whipping boys of the Garena Premier League (4:36, ouch) it at least shows that they are capable of some degree of ability. In some of the other groups they may have had a chance to escape and not finishing last, but this is a really stacked group and its really hard to see TPA or M5 or even Curse.na losing to what is essentially an unknown team that has little LAN experience.
Best Case Scenario:
The perform admirably in the group stage and give one of the 3 bigger name teams a scare
Worst case scenario:
Out of the tournament without winning a game
Fearless Prediction:
I don’t think they’ll be an embarrassment, but I don’t think they have much chance of success either. I think they’ll play competitive games with the teams in their group, but ultimately fall. I would say they are a strong candidate to bow out in the first round.
Overall:
Who can win IPL5?
This tournament has an outstanding lineup; however I feel only 4 teams have a legitimate chance to win the entire tournament, TPA, WE, Azubu Blaze and M5. I believe that WE should be considered a slight favourite over TPA, than Blaze and finally M5 with an outside chance of taking the whole tournament. What is unfortunate about this is that all these teams are either in group A or D, meaning that they will play each other in Round 2, so if things go to form, we will see a WE play a M5 or a TPA in the 2nd round, which is great for spectators, but is somewhat unfortunate from a tournament perspective considering 2 of the 4 top teams will have to hoe a long road through the lower bracket. Some people will say that CLG.eu or TSM has a chance to win the tournament. The groups certainly have helped them, but I worry deeply about their current form. At their best, I certainly believe that CLG.eu and TSM can beat an M5 or a TPA but they have to be at their absolute best, not merely average. Fortunately for IPL these four favourites all play and exciting and fast paced game of LoL and should make for an entertaining spectacle
Who will be the breakout team at IPL5?
Though it feels strange to pick a team that just won a major tournament as a ‘breakout’ team, I believe that fnatic can truly take the next step in this tournament, despite them getting drawn into a hellacious group. They are really talented and they should be full of confidence. I think they’ll probably be in the lower bracket from the beginning, but as long as they don’t get fatigued they can do damage
Who will be the breakout player?
Caomei, and no, I can’t pronounce that name either. Caomei is an insanely good top laner and should WE go deep in this tournament as I expect, his duels with Stanley, Darrien, Dyrus, etc all will certainly draw attention to how Caomei and how he fares.
What is the game to watch in the group stage?
Well we only know a couple of matchups for sure, so this is kind of an akward question, but I think that WE vs. fnatic is clearly the best matchup, as it features one of the key contenders for the tournament crown against an up and coming challenger. Crs.eu against TSM is also an intriguing match to see the how well these fringe contenders are playing.
FAQ:
Who are you and why did you write this?
I’m Amethyst/Firefly (have too many different usernames…) an avid LoL e-sports watcher who has far too much free time on his hands.
I disagree with your obviously wrong opinions!
I’m happy to be proven wrong and you are certainly welcome to your opinion, express it nicely though!
You’ve gotten something factually wrong!?
Sorry, I apologize for the incorrect information, please forgive me.
Sir, I like your views and would like to subscribe your newsletter.
You can follow me at @Firefly1021, though there are no promises that I’ll tweet anything of any value, ever.
Do you represent Team Liquid in any way?
No, I'm doing this individually for my own benefit, I don't represent TL in any way, though I'd obviously like to write for them in the future.
Please write more of these!
I’ll certainly write more if I get positive feedback, I do aim to please!
