EPT
status of C19 related the way the state voted
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Anc13nt
1557 Posts
On September 23 2020 11:19 JimmiC wrote: I made this a blog because it seemed too political for the Covid thread and too much Covid for the politics thread. I was wondering how States were preforming currently managing the spread of Covid-19 right now. And comparing that to who they voted for in 2016. My hypothesis was that, given by now the timing of Covid coming over has normalized and states would have had time to institute whatever localized program they felt was best, states who had a lot of Trump supporters would be having more new cases per 100,000 because those supporters would be less likely to wear masks, social distance or other measures stated by public health since they were getting conflicting advice from the president they voted for. This group of people would exist across the country in all states but smaller percentages where Hilary recieved more. For the cases per 100,000 I used this interactive map from NPR as well as their color coding described their (blue great, yellow good, orange bad, red real bad (actual descriptions in link)) https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/01/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s The results were pretty shocking. For States that voted Trump in 2016 as of today they were preforming Blue = 0% Yellow = 10% Orange = 67% Red = 23% For States who voted Hilary in 2016 they were preforming Blue = 5% Yellow = 65% Orange = 30% Red = 0% This is a very pronounced and dramatic difference. It could also "worse" than the numbers suggest as you would think people who fall in the non believer category would also be less likely to get tested. But even if we just go with what we have, states who voted Hilary are managing the spread WAY better than states that voted for Trump. not my opinion but a conservative would probably say something like "the blue states got it first so they had more time to get it together, so to speak." | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
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ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
Yes Trump supporters are less likely to follow basic health measures. And yes Republican governors have been on average more reluctant to impose measures such as mandatory mask policies. However blue states also had larger outbreaks earlier in the year which may result in people there being more cautious, and some proportion of the population being immune. Additionally red and blue states both have predominantly blue cities and red rural areas, with the cities also being hit hard earlier in the pandemic than the redder less dense rural areas. And the weather also seems to have a sizeable effect on the behaviour of people and accordingly the spread of covid which means that during summer heatwaves in the South where everyone stays inside for AC we saw cases surge across the South including California. And it's not as though Trump supporters will act all that differently based on if they live in a red, blue or purple state. So this is all rather dubious methodologically. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
And social norming won't always work in your favour in blue states, since many Trump supporters almost by definition live in very red counties where they will see people not wear masks. Additionally the dynamics of how a virus spreads in urban and rural settings, and your categorization of red and blue states based on the 2016 election are not nearly as straightforward as you seem to think they are. Like Wisconsin has a Democratic governor, but still has one of the worst outbreaks of the country currently. And many of the heavily affected states like Arizona or Florida are purple states more than anything else (albeit with Republican governors). Confirmation bias is precisely the definition of what you're doing. You're assuming that because Trump supporters engage in 'worse' behaviour vis a vis the pandemic that it means red states will do worse overall than blue states. It's a reasonable assumption in of itself (though throwing things into the bucket of red states and blue states is probably not a great way to look at things), but just looking at which states have the worst outbreaks today and calling that 'evidence' is faulty reasoning. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
I'm arguing that the evidence you've presented does not adequately establish a causal relationship between red states and the severity of the outbreak there, and that other factors such as the severity of previous outbreaks in those states/counties have to be accounted for, and aren't accounted for by a snapshot of how things are going right now. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Apom
France656 Posts
Older people have a shorter life expectancy than younger people (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html ). Hence voting Trump means you die faster. (corollary: voting Trump means you die faster of Covid) | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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AttackZerg
United States7694 Posts
We have States that have designed social services to fail. In Florida, they literally had to work against their own Unemployment system to get it to work. Texas did a partial closure for less then 30 days and declared a victory on May 1st (?pretty sure?) The President publicly undermined public health measures, leading directly to the stupidest movement in modern politics and life. Anti-maskers. A rally in a Trump state killed the only black GOP presidential candidate of note in a generation , and they don't give a shit. It is really, really sad. I really wish we could just be good neighbors and beat this shit. Sorry I don't have anything smart or not obvious to say. Just a real bummer to be part of the largest failure in modern medical history. Meanwhile Vietnam and Korea's citizens .... get to be ... not dead. | ||
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blade55555
United States17423 Posts
User was warned for this post | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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AttackZerg
United States7694 Posts
On September 24 2020 11:11 blade55555 wrote: lmao, man you leftists really reach out to make yourselves look better when the facts show differently. We are the only rich country to fail. The only one. Who has lead our national response? Mr. Liberate Michigan? Mr. Gay conversation therapy? If you wish to be tribal and binary. We are a Trump nation and have done worse than every non-Trump nation. Infact, having Trump has President looks more and more like a pre-existing condition of failure than poverty. (Sorry for responding to a shit post in your blog) | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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AttackZerg
United States7694 Posts
I don't know of any other population in history rooting against their collective success. | ||
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
I couldn't quite follow the methodology, but it seemed like your rating was based on how the states are doing right now, not how did they do since March. That seems pretty unfair because different states got hit at different times. Texas didn't well and truly get an outbreak until mid-July, and the numbers are rapidly declining as we speak. Again, the virus runs its course. On another note, I'm from that area that the article talks about, and it's basically the Mos Eisley Cantina of Texas. I would complain about corruption if the incompetence wasn't so overwhelming. Back in March, when the Covid cases were in the dozens, the tinpot dictators creamed themselves taking as much power as they could, enacting such heroic efforts as ripping up concrete park tables. It's also probably one of the worst places for obesity and diabetes in the country if not the world. I also didn't hear anything about restricting border traffic, which was having its own outbreak at the same time. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4458 Posts
On September 23 2020 15:36 ZigguratOfUr wrote: Many states have passed New York in cases per capita, but New York is still number 2 in deaths per capita (with fellow blue states New Jersey being 1st and Massachusetts being 3rd), so you're just wrong there. Legit /endthread but people seem to have moved on from actual deaths to cases.Even though with the massive uptick in cases and still far fewer deaths (partly due to democrat governers no longer sending COVID positive old folks back to nursing homes, partly due to more testing and possible mutation of virus into weaker form) the death rate per x cases for COVID continues to decline. Although ill say if Covid-19 had killed 200 million Americans like Joe Biden seems to think it has maybe I wouldn't see this thread as blatant fearmongering... | ||
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