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On October 24 2012 06:02 HelloSon wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 02:18 hoby2000 wrote:On October 24 2012 01:51 jdseemoreglass wrote:
Unfortunately, at least in live poker, you will NEVER reach the long run, or even come close to it. So it is very possible that someone very skilled at the game winds up a losing player.
For months, I lost with the best hand. MONTHS. I'd get my money in ahead again, and again, and again, and lost thousands. Eventually I had to quit simply because my bankroll grew too small. And yes, I did exercise proper bankroll management. I know poker, I've got a whole bookshelf with poker books I've read. I know pot odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, low m-ratio tournament inflection point strategy, etc. etc. I studied the game for years. I kept losing but kept coming back because I knew I was making correct decisions, and therefore knew I should be winning. And I couldn't turn down profitable situations, until I was forced to.
So anyway, a couple weeks ago I went to Lake Tahoe. I hadn't played poker in over a year. I decided to give it one more try. Of course this was with the standard logic which kept me losing for months before: "There is no such thing as an unlucky person. The odds will always even out in the long run. Getting your money in with the best hand is guaranteed to show a profit eventually." So I sit down at a cheap table, buy in only $100. The first hand I get, literally the first hand, AA... A couple fish limp in early position, gets to me and I raise. I get one caller behind me, everyone folds. Flop comes out, K73 rainbow. I bet $35. I've now got over half my money in the pot, I'm committed. He shoves all in, I call. He shows KQ, I show AA. Queen on the river.
Really don't know what else to say. I can't deny the logic of probability, can't deny positive expected value. And yet, I can't reconcile this with the reality of consistently losing in profitable situations. When I used to hear other people say this, I would think, "he's just bad. He doesn't see his leaks." Now I know what "long run" and "variance" actually mean. They can be insurmountable, even with BRM. It happens. My brother who plays poker as a profession (but not neccesary a professional, two different things) says hes lost more hands when he was ahead than when he wasn't. But it is all about the long run though. Poker is full of momentum swings, and only the strongest can survive them. He had a few buddies come stay with him to try to grind it out online, but they couldn't handle the constant feeling that they may not break through. He won a huge online tournament a few years ago with a ridiculous hand, but he was playing heads up, and that's a different game in itself. How accurately does he know this? Surely, you are familiar with "loss aversion" ? I've played a shitload of a poker and am a winning player but I wouldn't say I've lost more hands being ahead. I can surely remember more hands that I've lost while ahead than those I've lost.
I just mean hands like AA, AK, or KK. He goes all-in pre-flop against something like 10Js or and ends up losing to something like a full house or a straight or something. I mean those situations. Not every situation where he is ahead. He was exaggerating, but making a point by saying that sometimes your cards don't always save you.
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On October 24 2012 13:11 hoby2000 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 06:02 HelloSon wrote:On October 24 2012 02:18 hoby2000 wrote:On October 24 2012 01:51 jdseemoreglass wrote:
Unfortunately, at least in live poker, you will NEVER reach the long run, or even come close to it. So it is very possible that someone very skilled at the game winds up a losing player.
For months, I lost with the best hand. MONTHS. I'd get my money in ahead again, and again, and again, and lost thousands. Eventually I had to quit simply because my bankroll grew too small. And yes, I did exercise proper bankroll management. I know poker, I've got a whole bookshelf with poker books I've read. I know pot odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, low m-ratio tournament inflection point strategy, etc. etc. I studied the game for years. I kept losing but kept coming back because I knew I was making correct decisions, and therefore knew I should be winning. And I couldn't turn down profitable situations, until I was forced to.
So anyway, a couple weeks ago I went to Lake Tahoe. I hadn't played poker in over a year. I decided to give it one more try. Of course this was with the standard logic which kept me losing for months before: "There is no such thing as an unlucky person. The odds will always even out in the long run. Getting your money in with the best hand is guaranteed to show a profit eventually." So I sit down at a cheap table, buy in only $100. The first hand I get, literally the first hand, AA... A couple fish limp in early position, gets to me and I raise. I get one caller behind me, everyone folds. Flop comes out, K73 rainbow. I bet $35. I've now got over half my money in the pot, I'm committed. He shoves all in, I call. He shows KQ, I show AA. Queen on the river.
Really don't know what else to say. I can't deny the logic of probability, can't deny positive expected value. And yet, I can't reconcile this with the reality of consistently losing in profitable situations. When I used to hear other people say this, I would think, "he's just bad. He doesn't see his leaks." Now I know what "long run" and "variance" actually mean. They can be insurmountable, even with BRM. It happens. My brother who plays poker as a profession (but not neccesary a professional, two different things) says hes lost more hands when he was ahead than when he wasn't. But it is all about the long run though. Poker is full of momentum swings, and only the strongest can survive them. He had a few buddies come stay with him to try to grind it out online, but they couldn't handle the constant feeling that they may not break through. He won a huge online tournament a few years ago with a ridiculous hand, but he was playing heads up, and that's a different game in itself. How accurately does he know this? Surely, you are familiar with "loss aversion" ? I've played a shitload of a poker and am a winning player but I wouldn't say I've lost more hands being ahead. I can surely remember more hands that I've lost while ahead than those I've lost. I just mean hands like AA, AK, or KK. He goes all-in pre-flop against something like 10Js or and ends up losing to something like a full house or a straight or something. I mean those situations. Not every situation where he is ahead. He was exaggerating, but making a point by saying that sometimes your cards don't always save you.
If he's played enough hands he should have lost almost the same amount the odds give him. If he's playing big ball, which it seems like he is, then he should be winning a lot more than he is losing. There are specific playstyles such as small ball, where you might showdown a lot with weak hands so that when you get paid off, its enough to cover your losses and more, but you don't often go all in with premium hands, and go for a trapping playstyle instead.
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On October 24 2012 02:18 hoby2000 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 01:51 jdseemoreglass wrote:
Unfortunately, at least in live poker, you will NEVER reach the long run, or even come close to it. So it is very possible that someone very skilled at the game winds up a losing player.
For months, I lost with the best hand. MONTHS. I'd get my money in ahead again, and again, and again, and lost thousands. Eventually I had to quit simply because my bankroll grew too small. And yes, I did exercise proper bankroll management. I know poker, I've got a whole bookshelf with poker books I've read. I know pot odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, low m-ratio tournament inflection point strategy, etc. etc. I studied the game for years. I kept losing but kept coming back because I knew I was making correct decisions, and therefore knew I should be winning. And I couldn't turn down profitable situations, until I was forced to.
So anyway, a couple weeks ago I went to Lake Tahoe. I hadn't played poker in over a year. I decided to give it one more try. Of course this was with the standard logic which kept me losing for months before: "There is no such thing as an unlucky person. The odds will always even out in the long run. Getting your money in with the best hand is guaranteed to show a profit eventually." So I sit down at a cheap table, buy in only $100. The first hand I get, literally the first hand, AA... A couple fish limp in early position, gets to me and I raise. I get one caller behind me, everyone folds. Flop comes out, K73 rainbow. I bet $35. I've now got over half my money in the pot, I'm committed. He shoves all in, I call. He shows KQ, I show AA. Queen on the river.
Really don't know what else to say. I can't deny the logic of probability, can't deny positive expected value. And yet, I can't reconcile this with the reality of consistently losing in profitable situations. When I used to hear other people say this, I would think, "he's just bad. He doesn't see his leaks." Now I know what "long run" and "variance" actually mean. They can be insurmountable, even with BRM. It happens. My brother who plays poker as a profession (but not neccesary a professional, two different things) says hes lost more hands when he was ahead than when he wasn't. But it is all about the long run though. Poker is full of momentum swings, and only the strongest can survive them. He had a few buddies come stay with him to try to grind it out online, but they couldn't handle the constant feeling that they may not break through. He won a huge online tournament a few years ago with a ridiculous hand, but he was playing heads up, and that's a different game in itself.
He probably just only remembers the hands he was ahead because that's unexpected and your brain picks it up. Bad hands and he losses he instantly forgets because it was to be expected.
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On October 24 2012 17:33 sluggaslamoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 13:11 hoby2000 wrote:On October 24 2012 06:02 HelloSon wrote:On October 24 2012 02:18 hoby2000 wrote:On October 24 2012 01:51 jdseemoreglass wrote:
Unfortunately, at least in live poker, you will NEVER reach the long run, or even come close to it. So it is very possible that someone very skilled at the game winds up a losing player.
For months, I lost with the best hand. MONTHS. I'd get my money in ahead again, and again, and again, and lost thousands. Eventually I had to quit simply because my bankroll grew too small. And yes, I did exercise proper bankroll management. I know poker, I've got a whole bookshelf with poker books I've read. I know pot odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, low m-ratio tournament inflection point strategy, etc. etc. I studied the game for years. I kept losing but kept coming back because I knew I was making correct decisions, and therefore knew I should be winning. And I couldn't turn down profitable situations, until I was forced to.
So anyway, a couple weeks ago I went to Lake Tahoe. I hadn't played poker in over a year. I decided to give it one more try. Of course this was with the standard logic which kept me losing for months before: "There is no such thing as an unlucky person. The odds will always even out in the long run. Getting your money in with the best hand is guaranteed to show a profit eventually." So I sit down at a cheap table, buy in only $100. The first hand I get, literally the first hand, AA... A couple fish limp in early position, gets to me and I raise. I get one caller behind me, everyone folds. Flop comes out, K73 rainbow. I bet $35. I've now got over half my money in the pot, I'm committed. He shoves all in, I call. He shows KQ, I show AA. Queen on the river.
Really don't know what else to say. I can't deny the logic of probability, can't deny positive expected value. And yet, I can't reconcile this with the reality of consistently losing in profitable situations. When I used to hear other people say this, I would think, "he's just bad. He doesn't see his leaks." Now I know what "long run" and "variance" actually mean. They can be insurmountable, even with BRM. It happens. My brother who plays poker as a profession (but not neccesary a professional, two different things) says hes lost more hands when he was ahead than when he wasn't. But it is all about the long run though. Poker is full of momentum swings, and only the strongest can survive them. He had a few buddies come stay with him to try to grind it out online, but they couldn't handle the constant feeling that they may not break through. He won a huge online tournament a few years ago with a ridiculous hand, but he was playing heads up, and that's a different game in itself. How accurately does he know this? Surely, you are familiar with "loss aversion" ? I've played a shitload of a poker and am a winning player but I wouldn't say I've lost more hands being ahead. I can surely remember more hands that I've lost while ahead than those I've lost. I just mean hands like AA, AK, or KK. He goes all-in pre-flop against something like 10Js or and ends up losing to something like a full house or a straight or something. I mean those situations. Not every situation where he is ahead. He was exaggerating, but making a point by saying that sometimes your cards don't always save you. If he's played enough hands he should have lost almost the same amount the odds give him. If he's playing big ball, which it seems like he is, then he should be winning a lot more than he is losing. There are specific playstyles such as small ball, where you might showdown a lot with weak hands so that when you get paid off, its enough to cover your losses and more, but you don't often go all in with premium hands, and go for a trapping playstyle instead.
Well, he's obviously winning more than he admits or else he would find something else to do with his time. Like I said, he was exaggerating. Yeah, I understand you don't go all-in everytime with AA because it's better to slow play it like it's another hand some times. Some one said before that you should really be playing the player, and that's pretty much true in all cases. There are a lot of other things that obviously play into the situation, but I meant to be talking about specifically times where he was ahead in terms of chance but lost anyway.
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EPT
