Spoiler: My analysis of GSL final - Page 2

On October 21 2012 02:35 KawaiiRice wrote:

Almost every game Life opted to make craptons of lings (16~30+) and Mvp killed a bunch of them in the early game while losing none, and was able to kill drones in set 1, 3, 4, 7. Whether or not Life could have droned more heavily and do his style I don't know, but he sacked econ for the lings and this gave Mvp small advantages each game.

On October 21 2012 05:35 BisuDagger wrote:
I'd like to hear about how his heavy ling style and lack of roaches actually freed up tons of gas to invest in heavy tech units.

On October 21 2012 05:02 KawaiiRice wrote:
Losing 30 lings and making 10 drones behind it isn't the same as 10 drones -> 30 lings afterwards. You lose out on money you could have mined obviously.
I'm not going to argue that the style is good or bad (obviously it worked for him O_O!) but in my opinion the way he kept making 20-30 lings on a low drone count (~30-40 drones?) was inefficient and losing them as he did put him at a disadvantage. The disadvantage isn't really hard to overcome though since zerg production is really ridiculous, but it's a disadvantage nonetheless.

On October 21 2012 06:01 Big J wrote:


yes, it's not the same. But the way he plays it - only 1-2 gas taken, no big amount of queens, no ridicolous early third - there isn't a huge initial benefit in droning to 50 early, just due to how many drones you actually need to saturate a base very well (opposed to optimally).
I've played with something similar - before the queen patch, after TLO destroyed MKP and several other (Korean) Terrans with this style (before the queen patch) - where you make 3hatches and superfast double upgrades and try to counter hellions with creep+lingsflanks and stay on a rather low drone count early and it works really well if you can keep the hellion count low.

On October 21 2012 06:14 KawaiiRice wrote:

I'm not sure what you're saying here. I acknowledge that it works for him but it's not the most efficient/macro oriented. Are we saying the same thing?

I suspect this is really bad if Mvp were to do a 2base mech timing instead of expanding and playing passively.

I’m really confused. It seems so vulnerable to a 4 tank + hellion rally.

On October 21 2012 07:01 Big J wrote:


Well, I think that his strategy is actually better than the most macro oriented strategies, because it doesn't overdrone 2bases and then build units to be able to transfer to the third, but rather just skips the oversaturation 2base phase for more zerglings and rather uses the immense zerg production to saturate the third when he is actually safe to do so by building drones, instead of transfering+building.

I mean, if you do the math, you need like 25drones on minerals on two bases+queens to be able to go fulltime zergling or drone production (20drones or 40zerglings per minute), so with 30-40 drones, you have full droning potential + get the upgrades. The only 3 uses you get out of a greater economy at that point are:
1) if you either build up a bank for something (like mutalisks - in those two games he got quite punished a by hellions, because he had to build more drones for that build, so I actually don't think its the best way to go for mutas, but its quite masked well, behind showing his normal style)
2) if you want to build a lot of hatcheries
3) if you want to build units that are more expensive per larva, like roaches or queens or banelings before lair
(*) +10drones for later on

1) and 2) have no immidate return for you either, so the advantages you get over what he is doing are all going to be midgame advantages. Not sure how that would play out, but I think you are onto it in your OP:



3) on the other hand has an immidiate return, but you are basically building more drones to build other units as zerglings. However with the other units (slow roaches, slow banelings, queens, spines), you are mostly forced to stay at home early, so the value of those is dependend on what the opponent does and is in my opinion exactly what a (MVPlike) Terran that goes for banshee/hellion wants, as he is allowed to get a really fast third+Mech going.

(*) is not a huge deal for a zerg with 3-4hatches, as long as his standing army is strong enough to allow for that extra droning. (that's what 1hatch+queen produces in one minute)

On October 21 2012 07:25 KawaiiRice wrote:

Zerg needs 16 drones (max 24) per mineral line and 3 per gas so if Life goes 3 gases he'd need 41 drones for 2base saturation.
You focus a lot on greater economy over immediate returns, but making 20-30 lings early on has a very very very low chance at giving you any sort of return (i.e.: busting the natural with speedlings which failed on Antiga) ; on the other hand, going to at least 50 drones before making the speedlings still allows you to flank hellions, just not bust the natural. Since this would be when hellions start moving out. I see no benefit to making speedlings without at least 40 drones.
But anyway, having lings out early on provides threat and a chance to catch hellions off guard; is it really worth losing minerals (yes, getting drones later is losing potential minerals) for a chance to catch hellions off guard or bust the natural bunker especially against someone like Mvp? I cannot agree. Very rarely does a Terran lose to 6 minute 30 speedlings and certainly not Mvp.

@1 - His 2base muta rush is a specific build, and in it he also made a lot of speedlings.
@2 - He will build a lot of hatcheries anyway unless the game ends before 10 minutes
@3 - Or he can have more money to make a macro hatch or faster fourth should he see T going fast 3rd.

Arguably he doesn't need to play as drone-heavy as possible since lings are free once a Z hits 3 bases but you will still have more of everything in the later stages of the game by droning harder.

On October 21 2012 08:21 Big J wrote:

I think you focus too much on how other strong zergs play the game. I really belive that you don't need those early 10more drones, if you can create a window to drone afterwards. The early lings may or may not pay off directly. But I think they don't hinder you from doing what you want to do at that moment and it feels a little bit like he swaps early game problems - how to keep a bit of mapcontrol against the first hellions, how to make sure that the terran doesn't go incredibly greedy (like 1rax 3CC), how to defend/punish "random" moveouts (like MKP does) - for a little more vulnerability in the midgame.
@1 - yeah, but I think those were the games in which he ended up the furthest behind and in my opinion showed to be his weakest build. I'd even say that he expected Mvp to go bio in those, at least in the Antiga game and therefore was underprepared for the amount of hellions.
@2 - that comment was meant for the early game. I mean, he always built a reasonably early third, he just didn't use it up to the point he had dealt with the hellion thread - which other zerg playstyles can't use too much either.
And a macro hatch is what I meant with "greater midgame advantage" over how he played it. It's not going to help him get the third going faster or strengthen any early allin.
@3 - well, I think the point is that both - denying the third with a high base zergling count - and taking a faster fourth are good moves against a fast third.

About the later stages of the game. The way he plays by looking for trades very aggressively, he doesn't need to care about supply efficiency that much as those other zergs with more passive playstyles do. It allows him to spread Terran opponents really thin in the lategame if they want to have a good amount of bases and therefore his basic units work quite better and he doesn't need those huge broodlord fleets. Look at the way he went broodlords. He builds like 8broodlords and spams corruptors behind. 8broods is quite a low amount in the lategame, but because his opponent doesn't have a lot of army to begin with through the constant trades, blindly building vikings is even a harsher decision, as he is already streched really hard to defend 4bases against ling(/roach)/infestor. I think the supplies are quite telltale. Other zergs usually hit 200/200 with broodlords, I think against Mvp he always hit like 150-160/200 with them - he can afford less, but he doesn't need a big amount of them, because his opponent cannot build counters to them before they are out.
I think the abyssal city game is quite interesting in that regard, because in the game he failed to keep the army supply down and then did not go broods, but instead went for a ling/infestor attack, which only made sense if he either anticipated Mvp to build up counters to broodlords too early, or if he misscalculated and thought he could trade and keep the army down while teching to hive.

I really belive that you don't need those early 10more drones, if you can create a window to drone afterwards. The early lings may or may not pay off directly. But I think they don't hinder you from doing what you want to do at that moment

and it feels a little bit like he swaps early game problems - how to keep a bit of mapcontrol against the first hellions, how to make sure that the terran doesn't go incredibly greedy (like 1rax 3CC), how to defend/punish "random" moveouts (like MKP does) - for a little more vulnerability in the midgame.

About the later stages of the game. The way he plays by looking for trades very aggressively, he doesn't need to care about supply efficiency that much as those other zergs with more passive playstyles do. It allows him to spread Terran opponents really thin in the lategame if they want to have a good amount of bases and therefore his basic units work quite better and he doesn't need those huge broodlord fleets. Look at the way he went broodlords. He builds like 8broodlords and spams corruptors behind. 8broods is quite a low amount in the lategame, but because his opponent doesn't have a lot of army to begin with through the constant trades, blindly building vikings is even a harsher decision, as he is already streched really hard to defend 4bases against ling(/roach)/infestor. I think the supplies are quite telltale. Other zergs usually hit 200/200 with broodlords, I think against Mvp he always hit like 150-160/200 with them - he can afford less, but he doesn't need a big amount of them, because his opponent cannot build counters to them before they are out.
I think the abyssal city game is quite interesting in that regard, because in the game he failed to keep the army supply down and then did not go broods, but instead went for a ling/infestor attack, which only made sense if he either anticipated Mvp to build up counters to broodlords too early, or if he misscalculated and thought he could trade and keep the army down while teching to hive.

On October 21 2012 08:32 KawaiiRice wrote:



you also don't really need those 30 lings at that point but he makes them. the "window to drone" was never a question either. The question is what do those lings give by being made at 30-40 drones that aren't given at 50 drones: nothing.


again making the speedings at 50 drones deals just fine (I believe he did this on Ohana).
1rax 3CC will not be stopped by random speedling spam unless the Terran made the CC at the third (which Mvp did on Ohana).
"random moveouts" in our scenario can only be punished if the opp goes for a marine pressure or if hellions get caught on creep, but with 3 queens and 30 lings at 6~7 minutes hellions will not be on creep unless T does a runby.

to clarify I'm talking mainly about the difference between making lings at ~30-40 drones and ~50 drones. There is no difference in pressure and marginal economic benefit by making lings at 50 drones.

On October 21 2012 08:52 Big J wrote:


I think you overestimate that benefit of the extra 10-20drones. Their returnrate is only 50% as they are the "third drones" on the far away mineral patches on two base with roughly 20minerals/minute income and therefore will take ~2.5mins to pay off their own costs. In 2.5mins a 2base zerg with 30-40drones can create 40 new workers as well if there is no threat (anymore).
Mathematically speaking, 30lings are produced in one minute and cost as much as 10-20drones. The 10-20drones only return 200-400minerals in the next minute, but if you build the lings, secure that third 1minute earlier, the afterwards build 10-20drones will return 400-800minerals in the next minute and even everything out.
So if that lings hinder any form of runbys and thereby allow for an earlier mining at the third, they pay off, without any combat taking place. If a combat takes place, they can even pay off more.
That's of course very theoretical, but I think the principle isn't that wrong. If Life sees a strong hellion attack coming, he can't use the third anyways, if he sees a weak hellion attack coming, he can use the third earlier and have a greater return per drone, instead of a greater dronecount on 2base.

On October 21 2012 02:09 Irre wrote:
MVP played far superior, with Life basically just abusing how infestor protects/counters every unit in the game. MVP made some critical small mistakes despite being pretty ahead most games that he lost, and its a real shame that he lost the series. I appreciate that you mentioned the 4th going down in the first game I honestly think no matter what else happened he wins that game fi he had that 4th up for the viking production/reinforcements on his push or for a followup. Those crucial few seconds he didnt repair cost him game 1 IMO. The 3rd cancel on Ohana was pretty much GG. Daybreak was heartbreaking to watch a zerg go 10 pool do nothing, lose tons of drones late 3rd rush muta, do no damage, then just easily win with infestors. MVP should not have spread his army so much but i can see why he felt he had to push. Overall they both played well, I just wish the state of WoL wasn't so grim. After two years, players being so good, it just makes units like Sentry, Infestor, Collosus look so broken and damaging to the integrity of the game.

On October 21 2012 09:01 KawaiiRice wrote:

I am talking about benefit vs no benefit. Making lings once you have 50 drones is safe. Making lings and then droning is also safe but you already lost the money by making lings first.


edit: actually im not even sure how many drones a z should have when 4 hellions finish o_O 50 might be a bit high, maybe 45 or so?