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NASL Projections - Week 5

Blogs > Primadog
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Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-17 19:02:28
May 17 2011 17:08 GMT
#1
NASL Format
At the end of the season the top 2 in each division will qualify to be flown to our live-finals. The remaining players will be ranked. The top 20 will have a playoffs where 5 of them will be selected to continue on to the live-finals. The bottom 16 players will be relegated from the league and will have to re-qualify if they wish to play next season.
[image loading]

NASL Projections - Week 5 (spreadsheet)

Automatic placement in the Grand Finals (10 players)
  1. (Z)MorroW (6-3, 5pt), (T)Fenix (7-2, 8pt)
  2. (Z)July (6-3, 6pt), (P)White-Ra (6-3, 5pt)
  3. (T)Strelok (8-1, 9pt), (P)NaNiwa (7-2, 10pt)
  4. (P)Ace (7-2, 10pt), (Z)Ret (6-3, 6pt)
  5. (Z)IdrA (7-2, 11pt) (P)Socke (7-2, 7pt)
Qualify for the Playoffs (20 players)
  1. (Z)Sheth, (Z)Moon, (P)KiWiKaKi, (T)TLO
  2. (Z)DarKFoRcE, (T)SjoW, (P)TT1, (P)iNcontroL,
  3. (P)Squirtle, (Z)SLush, (T)NaDa, (T)dde
  4. (T)SeleCT, (P)HasuObs, (T)BRAT_OK, (P)MC
  5. (T)ClouD, (Z)Sen, (T)BoxeR, (Z)Zenio
Alive for season 2 (4 players)
(Z)ViBE, (P)CrunCher, (P)Axslav, (T)Ensnare,
Relegated from NASL (16 players)
  1. (P)RainBOw, (P)Grubby, (P)Artosis
  2. (Z)MoMaN, (T)qxc
  3. (T)KawaiiRice, (Z)mOOnGLaDe, (Z)HayprO
  4. (T)Stalife, (Z)Machine, (Z)CatZ, (T)GoOdy
  5. (P)MaNa, (T)Drewbie, (P)Tyler, (T)PainUser
You can read about how are the projections developed here.


Changes from the previous projection

  • The battle for Division 1's automatic spots descend into chaos with Sheth 's surprise lost to KiWiKaKi this week. The Prospectus simply picked the next batter up, MorroW, to replace Sheth's spot, but this six-man race truly is in a statistic dead-heat. Luckly, the coming week brings us three match-ups that will finally break this deadlock: the (T)Fenix vs (Z)MorroW regame, (Z)Moon vs (Z)Sheth, and (T)TLO vs (P)KiWiKaKi .
  • (Z)DarKFoRcE 's cinderella story seem to be cut short in Week 5 by White-Ra 's psiblades. Now, (Z)July is now in clear position to take the division.
  • Unlike his countryman July, (T)Ensnare continued to falter in the NASL and now risks relegating from it all together. Division 3's (T)dde may very well end up occupying the playoff spot originally reserved for Ensnare.
  • Perhaps (Z)MoMaN should start following IdrA's advice, "A baguette, not very useful for Starcraft," and start eating cereal like the All-American (P)CrunCher.
  • (Z)Ret 's spot in the Grand Finales is all but assured with his strong showing against (T)SeleCT . With the difficult schedule behind him, this Liquid' member may be well advised to book his plane tickets early for Los Angeles.
  • Poor (T)KawaiiRice, it seems like every time I write this column, I put him further down the leaderboard. On the bright side, he has a light schedule ahead, and can start winning again against fellow bottom-feeder (P)Axslav for a chance at redemption.


Closing words

With Divisional Play drawing to a close, I am keenly aware of increasing frivolousness of a weekly ELO-based ranking projection. In the coming weeks, my focus will begin shifting towards refining and evaluating algorithms to improve prediction accuracy of the NASL Prospectus in Season 2.


Projected final standings - Week 5

+ Show Spoiler [Division 1] +
Name		ELO	Record	Points

Fenix 2173 7 8
MorroW 2209 6 5
Moon 2212 6 7
Sheth 2192 6 5
KiWiKaKi 2247 6 5
TLO 2153 5 2
ViBE 2161 4 -2
Grubby 2162 2 -5
Rainbow 2012 2 -8
Artosis 1872 0 -16

+ Show Spoiler [Division 2] +
Name		ELO	Record	Points

White-Ra 2144 6 5
July 2144 6 6
DarKFoRcE 2145 5 1
SjoW 2118 5 3
TT1 2125 5 2
iNcontroL 2052 4 -3
Ensnare 2109 4 -2
CrunCher 2072 4 -3
MoMaN 2130 3 -2
qxc 2130 2 -6

+ Show Spoiler [Division 3] +
Name		ELO	Record	Points

Strelok 2328 8 9
Naniwa 2327 7 10
Squirtle 2198 6 5
Slush 2158 5 -1
dde 2225 4 -1
Nada 2113 4 -1
Axslav 2140 4 -2
Kawaiirice 2138 3 -5
Moonglade 2083 2 -6
Haypro 2066 2 -8

+ Show Spoiler [Division 4] +
Name		ELO	Record	Points

Ace 2310 7 10
Ret 2213 6 6
Hasuobs 2264 6 4
SeleCT 2221 6 6
Brat_OK 2209 5 0
MC 2324 5 3
Stalife 2150 3 -6
Catz 2090 2 -5
Goody 2132 2 -8
Machine 2052 2 -9

+ Show Spoiler [Division 5] +
Name		ELO	Record	Points

IdrA 2314 7 11
Socke 2227 7 7
Sen 2177 6 7
Boxer 2119 6 2
Zenio 2175 5 2
Cloud 2180 5 -1
Tyler 2080 3 -4
Drewbie 2129 3 -6
Mana 2081 3 -6
Painuser 2010 1 -11


Further NASL Reading
  • NASL News: When Worlds Collide
  • FantasyNASL leaderboard breakdown, week 5
  • tumba's Gretrol contest entry
  • IdrA quotes
  • NASL Prospectus: division predictions with TLPDELO
  • Fantasy NASL Draft Guide



*****
Thank God and gunrun.
NexUmbra
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Scotland3776 Posts
May 17 2011 17:36 GMT
#2
So is week 5 the last week?
Life has won two GSLs and a Blizzard Cup. NOT three GSLs.
emythrel
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United Kingdom2599 Posts
May 17 2011 17:50 GMT
#3
On May 18 2011 02:36 NexUmbra wrote:
So is week 5 the last week?


No these are projected scores based upon who is likely to win/lose their remaining matches.
When there is nothing left to lose but your dignity, it is already gone.
udgnim
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8024 Posts
May 17 2011 17:53 GMT
#4
NASL model not doing too badly so far

Grand Finals top 10 is a decent list of players
E-Sports is competitive video gaming with a spectator fan base. Do not take the word "Sports" literally.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
May 17 2011 17:55 GMT
#5
When division play is over, I'll write up a chart to see the weekly projection hit and misses. When I started this project, my personal goal was 70% hit rate for Week 3 and 5% improvement per week. We'll see whether that was too ambitious or not.
Thank God and gunrun.
s.a.y
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
Croatia3840 Posts
May 17 2011 18:25 GMT
#6
Idra is zerg, a minor fix is needed.

HayprO coming to Sweden might improve his chances, and i'm certain that Grubby will crawl up to the next qualifying round.
I am not good with quotes
searcher
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
277 Posts
May 17 2011 18:29 GMT
#7
Very interesting blog, thanks!
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-17 18:49:22
May 17 2011 18:46 GMT
#8
On May 18 2011 03:25 s.a.y wrote:
Idra is zerg, a minor fix is needed.

HayprO coming to Sweden might improve his chances, and i'm certain that Grubby will crawl up to the next qualifying round.


Thanks, fixed!

The way the tournament has unraveled, a player with less than 4 wins is all but out of NASL. There's a small statistical possibility that a 3-win player might make it to next season, but he has to have the highest point count of all 3-win players, and that category favors (T)qxc(0-5) over (P)Grubby(0-5). Now, Grubby still have (P)KiWiKaKi, (Z)MorroW, and (P)RainBOw left on schedule after this week's match with (P)Artosis. Is he going to all-kill them?

On the other hand, I believe (Z)HayprO(1-4) is underrated in the TLPD elo. He should be favorited to win over both (T)dde and (Z)mOOnGLaDe, but to find one more win from either division leaders (T)Strelok or (P)NaNiwa is a tall order.
Thank God and gunrun.
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