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Hi TL,
So I just noticed that signups for Fantasy Proleague went up, and decided to go and check it out. This will be my third time playing, but I still really have no idea what I'm doing. Hence, I turn to the masses for advice.
Specifically, I'd like to know what you guys take into consideration when picking an antiteam. It seems to me that what separates the guys in the top 50 from everyone else in the top 200 is antiteam selection, an ability which continues to elude me.
My first time playing was the 09-10 R5 FPL9 season. At the time, I was pretty new to the whole scene and really had no idea what I was doing. Outside of the "top" players in each team, the rest were pretty much unknowns to me. I chose Flash, Effort and then the rest of my team consisted of "players I've heard of" =/ As for my anti, I went with Bisu (slumping hard, an obvious choice), Killer and Kwanro.
About halfway through, I realised that having Oz on my main and Killer on my anti was kind of counterproductive, so I traded him away, and also Kwanro who seemed to be winning a lot of games. As I traded, I realised that the smartest and safest thing was to have an antiteam made up of players who just don't play that many games. If your guys don't play games then they can't win games, right?
Long story short, I ended up with Mind and Midas on my antiteam and did pretty okay for my first season, finishing a respectable 390th (181/1177 amongst "Terran users", apparently).
My second attempt was the recent 10-11 R2 season. This time, I tried to take teams into account when thinking about antiteam selection:
1) Team strength - if a player is on a team which is likely to either lose 0-4/1-4 or win 4-0/4-1 then the chance of that player playing is reduced
2) Team depth - if a player is on a team with lots of "regular" A-teamers then that player may not play every week (for example, STX and Khan have more players who are considered regulars, whereas Oz fields pretty much the exact same lineup for every match)
3) Player record - if a player didn't play every week in round 1 then they probably won't play every week in round 2
4) Player strength - players who had lucky streaks in round 1 and now carry inflated point values
My search led me to Roro, Bogus and Shine, three players who I didn't know very much about, but they seemed to fit the above criteria pretty well. Well, if you go and check out the results from round 2, you'll see that both Bogus and Shine finished in the top 10 for the round...accordingly, my team failed to break the top 50%. In short, I got raped by my antiteam =/
Looking back, I think my strategy was flawed given that the format of the league had changed. Specifically, the change from bo5 to bo7 means that you can't just rely on your players to not play games, because almost everyone is going to be playing every week. You need to pick guys who are actually going to lose, and lose often.
So now I'm sitting here once again, and trying to pick my antiteam for this season's R3. And I'm stuck. Being a Winner's League format, there is a different dynamic from previous rounds. My thoughts are:
1) a lot of players are going to become sacrificial lambs of sorts. For example, if your team is up 3-0 against Oz and they send JD, who do you send out? Most likely, nobody on your team can really beat him, but you don't want to send out your best player first. You should probably send out a couple of sacrificial guys to try their luck or try to tire him out before sending in your team's Ace
2) if a player is on a team with one or two players capable of all-kills, the chance of that player playing is reduced. For example, if Action loses game 1 and then Flash all-kills games 2 through 5 then most of KT wouldn't even play that week. On the other hand, this would still cost a point for the team win...
3) picking anyone who is capable of winning two or more games in a row is a bad idea
4) the fact that team performance is tied to player points means that you don't want to choose players from teams who are likely to do well (ie: teams who are well-balanced or teams with one guy who is really hard to beat)
Unfortunately, this analysis has kind of led me back to square one, where I have no idea what I'm doing. So I ask you, past FPL winners, veterans and BW analysts...what should I be taking into consideration when picking an antiteam? How do you do it? What advice can you give to someone who doesn't know the history or specific tendencies of each player very well? Anything at all would be appreciated...
TLDR: How am I supposed to pick an antiteam for FPL?
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I like to pick players that overperformed in previous round. And players I don't like :D
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Potentially good anti team picks this time around are:
 ggaemo - Value inflated after his last round, Airforce ACE will kick in soon
 Bogus - Stellar last round, risky he might continue
Slumping hard but still worth alot:
Action
 Violet
HiyA
free
BeSt will never be the same after what flash did to him on fortress :D
Never pick RorO for your anti.
Shine is also a bad pick imo
Another good anti strat is picking 1 really good player you think will slump or is inflated and 2 no-names. Can end up doing alot better (worse) than 3 middle of the road players getting decent points. I wouldn't worry too much about team wins either, just make sure you pick the players least likely to win games. Team results are unpredictable as all hell.
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Don't pick RorO for your anti !!
And Shine plays way too often, he is all-innish and keeps a 55% winrate -> don't pick him. Pick Kwanro or BeSt
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It's more important to pick the rising players rather than squeeze in 2 gosu powerhouses IMO.
Anytime did okay in Ace, now he is back to OZ, will certainly get playtime because OZ sucks and is a legend too. Guys like that are good (although potentially risky) picks.
Also seeing that OZ just got another good player on their roster now I think Killer won't get that much playtime anymore (line-up: Anytime.JD, Hiya + some scrub) , also he is horrible and BoxeR nuked him( xd ) so he seems an okay pick for antiteam.
Also great is one zerg you should not pick on your anti, I've done it like everytime and he always gets me -15 or something instantly. I did it again though -.-
You can think through your picks like that but in the end I always go a bit random because you never know who suddenly hits the winning streak and who no longer wins games with 2port wraith and therefore slumps for most of the year. Never go full retard though.
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LOL Roro Bogus and Shine, that's quite possibly the worst anti-team you could have picked this round.
As a general rule always stay clear of Roro, they don't call him a raper of anti-teams for nothing
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
Pick Roro for your anti team. I dare you.
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If you want to go for the mid-point antis, I would bet against rookies that are cooling down after a hot streak last round, like Turn. A riskier idea might be taking a high point player like Fantasy who is currently playing poorly and supplement him with some OZ protosses.
On January 05 2011 19:59 Scarecrow wrote:Potentially good anti team picks this time around are: ggaemo - Value inflated after his last round, Airforce ACE will kick in soon Bogus - Stellar last round, risky he might continue Slumping hard but still worth alot: ActionVioletHiyA free BeSt will never be the same after what flash did to him on fortress :D Never pick RorO for your anti. Shine is also a bad pick imo Another good anti strat is picking 1 really good player you think will slump or is inflated and 2 no-names. Can end up doing alot better (worse) than 3 middle of the road players getting decent points. I wouldn't worry too much about team wins either, just make sure you pick the players least likely to win games. Team results are unpredictable as all hell.
I thought the ACE effect would kick in on Ggaemo this round but he killed my antiteam 
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Jangbi seems like a good deal for $4. I'll be taking Shine myself, risky but... hopefully he's emotionally crushed after falling out of the SLs and he enters a slump.
HiyA's a good deal at $4 too. He's slumping so damn hard right now. I'd put him on my main team, but...
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Thanks for the replies guys, this has been really helpful.
At the moment I've almost got my team worked out, but I am stuck on one thing...
Fantasy or Light for main? I can see good arguments both ways. Fantasy has been slumping, but we all know he has the potential to beat top players and pull off multiple wins. But I read somewhere that Light managed to all-kill some teams last time round, so I can't decide...
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On January 05 2011 21:35 Roffles wrote:
Pick Roro for your anti team. I dare you.
Picking Roro is like playing Russian Roulette, seriously. I tried. ;_;
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At least we don't have to deal with the Luxury Chaos Effect anymore =\
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On January 06 2011 00:47 Rinrun wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2011 21:35 Roffles wrote:
Pick Roro for your anti team. I dare you. Picking Roro is like playing Russian Roulette, seriously. I tried. ;_;
So did I, the results were devastating to my FPL, and I learned my lesson.
I suggest picking some of the 6/7 point players for your team. A few of them can get you as many points as Jaedong/Flash/Bisu, but they cost a lot fewer points. My picks would be Soulkey or Light (I chose Light for my FPL last Winner's league, and he got me a lot of points =D)
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On January 06 2011 00:52 seRapH wrote:
At least we don't have to deal with the Luxury Chaos Effect anymore =\
Agreed. That was just insanity to go through.
Looking out for rookies that did well that you will think will slump or players that you think will continue to slump is the way to go, as long as it doesn't conflict with your main team. In Winner's League format, you want to pick players on teams that don't win much and doesn't get sent out. I'm thinking of leaning towards OZ bench players for my anti because I don't think JD can do everything in WL to compensate.
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ohhh FPL... I hate it :/ I cant get Leta on my Main Team. That makes me reeeeeeeeaaaaaaally Sad.
I will get like 3 Protoss on my Anti :&. Im really unsure whether to get someone from ACE on my main. FBH why do you play so good lately ?
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EPT
. STX got quite huge lineup, and thus don't think Bogus get too many chances.
