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Thoughts on Zerg Balance

Blogs > naventus
Post a Reply
naventus
Profile Blog Joined February 2004
United States1337 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-08-13 02:10:13
August 13 2010 02:09 GMT
#1
Let's look at some discussion pulled from ICCUP, which from D to A, is basically what Diamond is.

Anecdotal from this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=97800

(Breakdown of people's games)

Person A
41 vs terran
92 vs zerg
140 vs protoss

Person B
Against P: 41
Against Z: 58
Against T: 33

Person C
58 vs zerg
72 vs toss
33 vs terran

Person D (KawaiiRice)
88 vs Z
85 vs P
18 vs T

---

[Satire]
Clearly, T is underpowered and underrepresented in BW ladder. Why is T so hard to play? How come T can't scout P reliably (Academy is fairly late in TvP) and has to react to P, but P has a ton of instant death allins?

---

The fact is that statistics like these are more likely to be correlation than causation. They are more likely the result a number of different factors than just "Zerg is UP, therefore no one plays it".

If you want to have a real discussion about why Z is underpowered, you need to list out the specific builds and timings that are difficult to react to. Which builds are indistinguishable? Can responses overlap? Is this a nonissue on some maps?

Or, if people believe it to be the case that 200/200 food fights are the issue, pick apart the scenarios and quantify what the issues are. Is it because the first 200/200 fight, Z might be on equal base, and not be able to recover in time? Or is it really the case that Z can truly be ahead, but 5*(3+4n) larva is not enough to overpower/cleanup the fight? Or maybe there is a sweet spot of time to wait for larva stockpile. A minor, but related, note is that 200/200 T cannot attack move into 200/200 P either…

The conversation really needs to be brutally specific or there is really nothing of value to discuss. Otherwise, the whole dialog is just one person's word against another's, and we are just terribly wasting reams of bytes, and more importantly, time to get to the root of the problem.


***
hmm.
KurtistheTurtle
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States1966 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-08-13 02:38:20
August 13 2010 02:37 GMT
#2
I agree with this blog. I feel like one point needs even more stress, the part about correlation and causation.

People will use small samples of data to draw large conclusions they logically can't. Especially in America, this is nothing new (politicians do it all the time just because Americans are dumb). Statistics is hard and generally deemed unnecessary which leads to nerdrage-fueled discussions about ultimately pointless things.


Wired Magazine May 2010, Do You Speak Statistics by Clive Thompson (pg 36):
"How can global warming be real when there's so much snow?" ¶ Hearing that question--repeatedly--this past February drove Joseph Romm nuts. A massive snowstorm had buried Washington DC, and all across the capital, politicians and pundits who dispute the existence of climate change were cackling. The family of Oklahoma senator Jim Inhofe built an igloo near the Capitol and put up a sign reading AL GORE'S NEW HOME. The planet can't be warming, they said; look at all this white stuff! ¶ Romm--a physicist and climate expert with the Center for American Progress--spent a week explaining to reporters why this line of reasoning is so wrong. Climate change, he said, is all about trend lines. You don't observe it by looking out the window but by analyzing decades' worth of data.


Losing 8 in a row vs Terran for varying reasons =/= Terran is imba. That's some god damn localized snow. Hard data carefully scrutinized, properly contextualized and explained can show situations which display this. Enough of these situations and you've got a case. The same if overall racial winning trends are significantly different over an extended period of time.

Anything before this bottom line and it's probably something you can improve about yourself, or some strategy you're not aware of which you could be using.
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears."
Lightwip
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5497 Posts
August 13 2010 02:38 GMT
#3
I've seen way more T's than Z's or P's in my record(D level). I don't think this is particularly accurate at all.
If you are not Bisu, chances are I hate you.
Adeny
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway1233 Posts
August 13 2010 04:12 GMT
#4
On August 13 2010 11:38 Lightwip wrote:
I've seen way more T's than Z's or P's in my record(D level). I don't think this is particularly accurate at all.


I'm sure there are lots of zergs at bronze too.
QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32091 Posts
August 13 2010 14:14 GMT
#5
On August 13 2010 11:37 KurtistheTurtle wrote:
I agree with this blog. I feel like one point needs even more stress, the part about correlation and causation.

People will use small samples of data to draw large conclusions they logically can't. Especially in America, this is nothing new (politicians do it all the time just because Americans are dumb). Statistics is hard and generally deemed unnecessary which leads to nerdrage-fueled discussions about ultimately pointless things.

Show nested quote +

Wired Magazine May 2010, Do You Speak Statistics by Clive Thompson (pg 36):
"How can global warming be real when there's so much snow?" ¶ Hearing that question--repeatedly--this past February drove Joseph Romm nuts. A massive snowstorm had buried Washington DC, and all across the capital, politicians and pundits who dispute the existence of climate change were cackling. The family of Oklahoma senator Jim Inhofe built an igloo near the Capitol and put up a sign reading AL GORE'S NEW HOME. The planet can't be warming, they said; look at all this white stuff! ¶ Romm--a physicist and climate expert with the Center for American Progress--spent a week explaining to reporters why this line of reasoning is so wrong. Climate change, he said, is all about trend lines. You don't observe it by looking out the window but by analyzing decades' worth of data.


Losing 8 in a row vs Terran for varying reasons =/= Terran is imba. That's some god damn localized snow. Hard data carefully scrutinized, properly contextualized and explained can show situations which display this. Enough of these situations and you've got a case. The same if overall racial winning trends are significantly different over an extended period of time.

Anything before this bottom line and it's probably something you can improve about yourself, or some strategy you're not aware of which you could be using.


Id like it if this were copied in every fucking balance thread
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