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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
The game looks super fishy. No way does a 6k+ MMR player fuck up a map this badly. The coincidence with the blind counter just adds to it
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On March 14 2019 07:59 pvsnp wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 07:32 Shuffleblade wrote:On March 14 2019 07:18 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 07:06 Shuffleblade wrote:On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place). You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find. So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable. So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die". Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love. When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free? Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed. First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine". You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common? Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously. I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree. Presumption of innocence is one of the key principles of many legal systems, and naturally should not be compromised. However, there are cases and extenuating circumstances under which key legal principles can be suspended. To use habeas corpus in the US as an example, it's a right of every person to know why they are legally detained. However, this principle can and has been suspended as per the Constitution "when in rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." (U.S. CONST. art. I, § 9, cl. 2.) I believe we should regard Macsed as innocent until he's proven guilty, since as far as I know, there is no impending catastrophe that would justify revoking his right to that presumption. Erm what are you even talking about, the legal system should not be compromised? First you think I want Macsed lynched (killed?) and now you presume I want him what? Sent to jail, fined?
There is no law that says that organisations like IEM, WESG or for that matter Blizzard themselves are not allowed to ban players without a decision in a court of law. What nonsense are you talking about? Private companies are allowed to do as they will, if I go to my local grocery store and disturb the order they are allowed to throw me out and prevent me from entering their store again. They don't need me to have done something unlawful or get a decision from a judge. That is not how reality works.
He matchfixed, there is enough proof to make put it beyond reasonable doubt. Its up the community and event organizers if they will allow him in their tournament. It doesn't really matter what you or me thinks what matters is what the people in charge thinks and how they think it will reflect on their events if they allow him.
On March 14 2019 07:59 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 07:06 Shuffleblade wrote:On March 14 2019 06:05 Nebuchad wrote:On March 14 2019 04:08 Cyro wrote:On March 14 2019 03:57 IntoTheEmo wrote:On March 14 2019 03:44 Nebuchad wrote:On March 14 2019 02:47 BlingBlang wrote: Marine King and Innovation definitely match-fixed towards the end of Proleague (both were in a slump and the games were dodgy too although the odds movement is almost 100% proof). I almost hope we find out Innovation match fixed a game at one point because then it would be excessively difficult for people to argue that lifebans are good for the game. It's pretty obvious that Starcraft with Innovation playing and a match-fix at one time in the past is much better than Starcraft with no Innovation since the end of Proleague. I've seen this argument made for CSGO too and again it needs to be said, no talent is ever worth the loss of integrity. If the legitimacy of the games ever comes into doubt, what's the point of even watching. When the entire image of the scene is at stake, lifetime bans are more than warranted. Sponsors don't want to be associated with a tainted game, so a match-fixer would've endangered the livelihood of many more people than just himself. Not to mention (assisting with) stealing money is a criminal offence. Be glad they weren't thrown in prison. A very poisoned outlook on matchfixing bans that I hate seeing surface every now and then. These professionals should know better. An SC2 with a known matchfixer playing is an SC2 that invites dozens of known matchfixers until no game is sacred any more. No it's not, this makes no sense. People will be lured into matchfixing no matter how getting caught is punished. Just make getting caught very expensive and you'll get the same level of disincentive without the loss of talent. Its not about sending a message "don't do this because then you get punished" its about the integrity of the sport. The reason matchfixing is a huge deal in sports is because it literally kills the sport. The reason professional sports exist is because there is viewers, viewers pay money, buy merchandise and because there are viewers teams get sponsors and companies gets money through commercials. Viewers are there because they are excited about the competitive side, teams and companies spends tons of money getting viewers invested. Invested in the outcome of matches, invested in teams, players or whatever. This is why world cups are so huge, because cheering for your own country is an effective way to get viewers invested. Now listen closely, it doesn't matter if its true or not, if viewers believe that the outcome of matches are determined from the start and that it isn't a real competitive game they will not watch the games. That is how professional sport scenes die, no viewers, no money, no money no players, no players no sport. Letting a player continue to play that we as a viewers know have matchfixed will effect the whole scene and the viewers. When that player loses it will always be there in our minds, the voice that says "he matchfixed once, nothing to say he wouldn't do it again". As we all know if you are suspicious a players is trying to lose you will find mistakes, because you cant help looking for them. This will ruin the whole experience for viewers and the sport will suffer for it. It won't affect "the viewers". It will affect you, and the people who agree with you, because you don't like it. You're using a rhetorical trick to pretend that your opinion represents the whole scene when it doesn't because it gives credence to your argument. When I watch Starcraft I'd like to see people trying to win. When people match fix, they aren't trying to win, they rob me of my viewing pleasure, so I'm going to require some punishment. Once they are punished, I don't need them to never play again for "the integrity of the game", because that's actually some immaterial concept that only has the relevance that you give to it. If they play again and they try to win again, I can still take pleasure in watching them. There is absolutely no reason to assume that a player who match fixed in the past is more likely to match fix again after he's been caught. Maybe that's how you work, its not how the majority of viewers work. Who cares about what you or I think just look at the past, how did the broodwar matchfix scandal go down? The scene continued to thrive as before? No it went downhill from there. It is know how open and known matchfixing effect sports, its not about what either of us thinks.
You can claim I use "tricks" as much as you want, I can't change history and history speaks for itself
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On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions.
Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
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On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Running away probes 1 second before killing both zealots and then refusing to kill either zealots when there were opportunities to do so safely. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese.
So just to be clear, you've never in your life done something in a game you were fucking around in and retrospectively realized you made far more grave an error than intended? Like I play MOBAs with my bros all the time and the amount of times we think we're too far ahead to lose and we find ourselves doing random stupid shit that ends up costing us is more than I can count. Its just as easy to assume he purposefully killed those Zealots as it is to say he just didn't think he needed them and could win without them, only to realize that was one fuck up too many that even a diamond league player could punish.
You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer.
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On March 14 2019 08:15 pvsnp wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese. Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions. Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully.
Yes, as people in this thread have said "follow the money". I'm not sure about Chinese laws, but I expect an audit of MacSed's finances at least (can't just end now, they could have stipulated "X days later we'll pay you).
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This is basically how UEFA (or FIFA) identify fixed football matches.
OP said chinese are known to matchfix, and the other player is serbian, which is balkans - famous for matchfixing in football too.
Match fixed 100%.
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On March 14 2019 08:15 pvsnp wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese. Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions. Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully. Changing betting lines are LITERALLY money moved that's the algorhythm for changing betting lines. If you bet enough, the betting lines will change to the degree that 4000mmr player will appear like he has 50%+ chance to win a map of off a 6000MMR player Stop writing silly things.
Hypothetical motives? Hypothetical motive is something that doesn't make sense, but you're trying to find a scenario in which it does make sense. Nothing about making money is a 'hypothetical motive'.
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On March 14 2019 08:15 pvsnp wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese. Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions. Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully. Do you realize that if we always required "smoking gun" evidence instead of beyond a reasonable doubt proof then a HUGE amount of crimes would never get punished, right? You seem to live in this fairy tale land that has a perfect justice system that just now and then lets a criminal slip by, haha, such naivety.
Senator: "How do you sustain a business model in which users don't pay for your service?" Zuckerberg: "Senator, we run ads." Senator: "Yes, but how do you make money?"
I bet the people wanting hard evidence are too dense to understand what was presented and explained about betting in the OP, just like the US Senate was too tech illiterate to discuss anything with Zuckerberg.
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On March 14 2019 08:15 pvsnp wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese. Show me the chat logs, show me the money moved, show me the smoking gun. That's evidence. That's how an actual legal system functions. Vigilante convictions over suspicious behavior with hypothetical motives and possible reasons are exactly why laws and courts were created in the first place. Thankfully. You just went from Correlation does not imply causation to wanting an actual legal system function. What is this? I even wrote that debating legal systems are pointless. Can you at least agree that Macsed set out to lose? I can't see how anybody who watched the vods can come to the conclusion he did not.
On March 14 2019 08:20 chipmonklord17 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:11 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 14 2019 08:07 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 08:05 NinjaNight wrote:On March 14 2019 07:43 pvsnp wrote:
A textbook logical fallacy. Just because matchfixing is one possible explanation does not mean it is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps he's guilty, perhaps not, but this is not proof of either. Correlation does not imply causation. It's the only explanation I can think of that perfectly fits the cirumstances. Where are your answers to those questions? You combine these ridiculous things (that never happen to professional caliber players) all happening in one game with the extremely suspicious line movement and it very much does imply causation. You're only needlessly confounding the issue by claiming this correlation does not imply causation bullshit. This guy gave a good example: On March 14 2019 08:03 chipmonklord17 wrote:On March 14 2019 05:35 IshinShishi wrote: Here's a nice story. A dude comes back from a work trip and finds used condoms under his bed and a belt he is sure isnt his, the room reeks of sex. When he confronts his wife with what he has seen he sees a red mark on her neck, but she says she lent the room to her dear friend Laura, our dude then said that since he saw no definitive proof it didnt happen, then he kissed his wife and went to bed for some deserved peaceful sleep. Yo I got one of my own. A dude, a progamer, hell we'll call him Chinese for the sake of fun hypotheticals, is going on a work trip. He finds a diamond league player in his bracket in an MMR that isn't his. He tells his friend he's gonna fuck around because the dude can't possibly beat him anyway. In his match he finds out that he can in fact fuck around too hard and lose the game. He goes home and has his career destroyed because no one likes hard evidence. Damn stories are fun That's a terrible example. The game if you watched it goes beyond fucking around, but straight up trying to lose. It's on the level of killing your own units. Running away probes 1 second before killing both zealots and then refusing to kill either zealots when there were opportunities to do so safely. Letting your opponent know you are cheesing and cheesing badly and not bothering to counter their cheese. So just to be clear, you've never in your life done something in a game you were fucking around in and retrospectively realized you made far more grave an error than intended? Like I play MOBAs with my bros all the time and the amount of times we think we're too far ahead to lose and we find ourselves doing random stupid shit that ends up costing us is more than I can count. Its just as easy to assume he purposefully killed those Zealots as it is to say he just didn't think he needed them and could win without them, only to realize that was one fuck up too many that even a diamond league player could punish. You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence. Let me be as specific as possible. You need hard evidence to impose a ban or punishment. You need a subjective amount of evidence to believe personally that he is a matchfixer. I don't need hard evidence to say anything, just as you are just as powerless to convict macsed as I am, and you are just as free to type total nonsensical stories. TL forums is not a court of law. If you cannot be satisfied with someone obviously setting out to lose, and you are not satisfied with the large amounts of money betted that a pro will ever lose to a diamond player, and you are not satisifed that Macsed performed actions that deliberately set himself up to lose, then there is nothing that will ever satisfy you.
Its just as easy to assume he purposefully killed those Zealots as it is to say he just didn't think he needed them and could win without them, only to realize that was one fuck up too many that even a diamond league player could punish. Dude, do you even play starcraft? This is something even bronze players don't or can't do. To let 2 zealots live when they would had died in less than 1 second. Just leaving the probes on attack would had killed both zealots faster, it;s actually quite impressive skill he had shown to make sure that neither zealots would die. To mineral walk at unneccesary points, and decide to micro badly, to mineral walk and target at the wrong times, when the best course of action would just be to not take any actions at all. To manage to micro and time it just right so you deal just the right amount of damage on both till they are both one second from dying. And then to continue to let at least one of them live to the end of the game whilst running the probes in a circle, because the diamond player didn't keep his zealots together.
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WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
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Can anyone make it explicit exactly how much is needed for a shift from 1.34 to 2.06 like this? It seems absurd to me a couple thousand is needed given that this is just a WESG match.
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On March 14 2019 08:48 DirtyHarry2016 wrote: WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Well he was so bad, that I think it would be worse if he was not throwing.
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On March 14 2019 08:48 DirtyHarry2016 wrote: WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Clearly almost everyone in this thread overestimate MacSed lol.
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On March 14 2019 08:55 HaruPo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:48 DirtyHarry2016 wrote: WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Clearly almost everyone in this thread overestimate MacSed lol. And everyone else has a Chinese IP address.
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On March 14 2019 08:57 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:55 HaruPo wrote:On March 14 2019 08:48 DirtyHarry2016 wrote: WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Clearly almost everyone in this thread overestimate MacSed lol. And everyone else has a Chinese IP address. Mine is not for instance lol.
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On March 14 2019 08:55 DSh1 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 08:48 DirtyHarry2016 wrote: WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Well he was so bad, that I think it would be worse if he was not throwing.
Indeed. Everybody laughed at him on losing that game.
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If it was just that he lost the game deliberately, no-one would had cared.
Unfortunately, it seemed that somebody decided to bet that he would lose on just that specific match, and at unusually large amount of money at that.
Quite the strange coincidence that.
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On March 14 2019 08:48 DirtyHarry2016 wrote: WTF
1. MacSed is no-longer a pro player. He is now a coach and streamer, and lives with proper income from it. A couple of hundred dollars is absolutely not enough to corrupt him.
2. MacSed plays a lot of other games every night till very late on streaming, auto chess and CSGO for example, and he is not trying to keep a good competitive state obviously. He could lose to anyone.
3. MacSed had pressure from his Chinese friends on site, to win that game quickly, since the opponent was not strong. So he chose an uncommon strategy, and messed it up quickly.
So, say hi to those pain in ass rep analyzers above. You are all wrong.
Lol interesting, from what I heard the chinese scene has improved with a lot of players that do well. They distinguish themselves well in WCS too but sadly there must be a misunderstanding.
If Macsed is the best china has to send to WESG (he took 2 place in the regional qualifier so obviously he is) but he is basically at the level of a diamond 2 on the european server. I guess the strongest professional chinese players are what, high master at best?
So your argument is basically that the chinese players are so shitty that this is the best they got, mid diamond level? Sounds like excuses to me but what do I know
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On March 14 2019 08:14 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 07:59 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 07:32 Shuffleblade wrote:On March 14 2019 07:18 pvsnp wrote:On March 14 2019 07:06 Shuffleblade wrote:On March 14 2019 06:14 pvsnp wrote: You know why Life got busted? Because prosecutors followed the money and discovered that he was paid for what he did. Boom, there's your permaban, your court sentence, your career and legacy disgraced.
Losing isn't a crime. Being an idiot isn't a crime. Playing hungover isn't a crime. And TL is not a court of law. The movement of betting lines is a far more solid source of suspicion than anything Macsed did in-game. And yes, I agree that it looks suspicious. Suspicion != proof.
The truth will not be found by poring over replays and flaming people online. A proper investigation deals in facts, not hysteria, and is conducted by professionals, not forum vigilantes. Macsed is already under scrutiny, so the only thing we as fans need to do is wait for the answers.
Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's innocent. Jumping to either of those conclusions based on the limited and circumstantial evidence available, is simply idiotic (and incidentally, a great example of why legal systems, standards of proof, and courts of law exist in the first place). You are naive, you believe there will always be a money trail to follow. There are ways to circumvent that, what has gotten people convicted is when the actual people behind the matchfixing gets caught. The chat history and stuff like that. If you are careful there are ways to make all of that evidence pretty much impossible to find. So here we are, with obvious matchfixers and a problem in our sport but we can't prove anything. We don't even know is chinese police is even looking into it but even if they did chances are it wouldn't be traceable. So we have a few choices, accept the matchfixing "because we cant really prove it", tell everyone their innocent unless convicted and we will end up with all of us "knowing" matchfixing is rampant but that nothing is being done to stop it. I mean come on even you posters who dont want to clearly say that he is guilty thinks he is guilty. Its just obvious. Lets say we see the same thing happen every 5th or so game in the future, what to do. They are matchfixing but we cant "prove" it, we will lose interest in the tournaments, we will slowly but surely stop following as closely as we were and the scene will slowly "die". Our other choice is to hope organizers take this seriously and that we do to, this is matchfixing and we should absolutely not accept it. It would be the nothing but bad for the scene we all love. When was the last time a "known" matchfixer, which is to say somebody forum vigilantes wanted to crucify, was allowed to go free? Because MKP was years ago, and if one internet-convicted "guilty" guy going free every few years is the cost of protecting innocents, I think that's a pretty good trade. I'm not seeing this catastrophe that you claim will happen if we don't lynch Macsed. First thing, I'm not saying anyone should lynch Macsed, do you know what that word even means? I'm saying he matchfixed and our reaction should not be "so what we can't prove it and as long as we can't prove it its fine". You have a very interesting take on this, so you believe we should regard Macsed as innocent because it was a long time ago since someone matchfixed this blatantly? So it matters how often it happens if we should react or not? If this happens again in the playoffs of WESG should X players also be free to go because its not many enough for you to take it seriously? How about if it happens at GSL best of 16 next? Is that were we draw the line and even though we let Macsed go and player X we will judge players Y harder because its becoming more common? Doesn't sound very consistent to me, I believe everyone should get the same judgement, they will from me anyway. If its equally blatant of course, which it is here. This might be the first time in years or it is only the tip of the iceberg either way we can't know and should therefore take it seriously. I don't really see the catastrophe I myself painted but it is a slippery slope, free one and you might as well free them all. Especially when it is this incredibly obvious, we might look back at this as the start of something really really bad just like the first game with San vs Dark all those years ago. I really hope that wont happen but I don't want to look back and think if only we as a community had reacted instead of sweeping it under the rug, this is something that effects the scene to a very high degree. Presumption of innocence is one of the key principles of many legal systems, and naturally should not be compromised. However, there are cases and extenuating circumstances under which key legal principles can be suspended. To use habeas corpus in the US as an example, it's a right of every person to know why they are legally detained. However, this principle can and has been suspended as per the Constitution "when in rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it." (U.S. CONST. art. I, § 9, cl. 2.) I believe we should regard Macsed as innocent until he's proven guilty, since as far as I know, there is no impending catastrophe that would justify revoking his right to that presumption. Erm what are you even talking about, the legal system should not be compromised? First you think I want Macsed lynched (killed?) and now you presume I want him what? Sent to jail, fined? There is no law that says that organisations like IEM, WESG or for that matter Blizzard themselves are not allowed to ban players without a decision in a court of law. What nonsense are you talking about? Private companies are allowed to do as they will, if I go to my local grocery store and disturb the order they are allowed to throw me out and prevent me from entering their store again. They don't need me to have done something unlawful or get a decision from a judge. That is not how reality works. He matchfixed, there is enough proof to make put it beyond reasonable doubt. Its up the community and event organizers if they will allow him in their tournament. It doesn't really matter what you or me thinks what matters is what the people in charge thinks and how they think it will reflect on their events if they allow him.
IIRC, matchfixing is illegal in China as well as Korea (which is why Life went to actual court and spent time in actual jail), due to the inherent connections with illegal gambling. So Macsed could potentially be looking at legal action, and that's why I was talking about the legal context.
But if you want to shift the subject to corporate action like Blizzard and Alibaba, then you might want to think twice about opening that can of worms. As you said, corporations are free to act independently of the relevant legal considerations.
What would you say if Blizzard decided that they were making too much money from China and it wasn't worth pursuing this case due to potential lost revenue?
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On March 14 2019 08:20 chipmonklord17 wrote: You need hard. evidence. HARD evidence.
Betting line changed significantly. There's your evidence of money pouring on a bet for an unlikely outcome. Soon after, this outcome comes to fruition in a ridiculous game.
EDIT: In situations like this, players should be autobanned from tournaments for a few years at least. No extra investigation, simply ban the favorite who lost if the betting line changed drastically.
1/1000 times you may ban the unlucky innocent person, but it will clean the scene of matchfixing effectively.
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