On the "Artosis Curse", Luck and Liquibet in SC2. - Page 7
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Demand2k
Norway875 Posts
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blackbrrd
Norway477 Posts
Cross-country skiing had a "metagame" shift when the changed from just the classic style to also include freestyle. Different people adapted differently to these changes and we had a massive shift in who could win what. This is what's happening in SC2 as well, but it shifts much more rapidly. Looking at who has won the GSL, we have people like Nesta, Mvp and MC that to me looks like they have been in a league of their own. For various reasons they have been in a bit of a slump now, but it's obvious that their skill makes them win more often than less skilled players. In other words, the carreer results of a player tells us how good he is at the game, not the individual games. In football (soccer for Americans) we have a saying in Norwegian "Cup is cup" and it's about how in a sport like football you are going to have upsets when you play in a cup as opposed to a league. Nearly all tournaments in SC2 are cup-based (single or double elimination), while a lot of sports are league based. | ||
FrodaN
754 Posts
Gretorp mentioned this to me: The brokenness of BW wasn't exactly the reason why it was balanced. Rather, it was the incredible difficulty to execute the brokenness of a build. In SC2, it's very easy to abuse for easy wins. Gateway timings, Void Ray/Colossus, TvP Mass Thors, Roach max, Fungals, or even Ghosts in TvZ. Therefore, players need less mechanical skill to execute optimized play. To remedy this, the game needs the seemingly-OP strategies to require more skill to pull off. In Wings, the best strats which are extremely powerful are too easy to execute. I have high hopes for HotS to guide the game in the right direction ^^ | ||
achan1058
1091 Posts
On February 22 2013 19:37 Grumbels wrote: Tennis is random: 1. top players take points off each other all the time, because you can take risks. 2. some points are a lot more important than others. You can win games without winning the majority of the points. Chess is random: 1. if your game veers into a type of play that you prepared for then you have an advantage. 2. you can't know the consequences of your moves, since you can't look more than x moves ahead. Both games have moments where you take calculated risks, but in the end the winner is almost always the better ranked player. In SC2 this is not the case. I think it's not a question of calculated risks existing, it's that there aren't enough of them, not enough moments in the game where you have to make some interesting decision of engagement with multiple good choices, and so on. If that was the case then the build order advantages wouldn't matter so much, since with good play you could still catch up. A few more comments: People should stop dredging up MVP's 70% winrate. This was during a time with less players at the top, he was far and away the strongest player, and therefore it's meaningless. Look at the stats now: Life is 66% for the last six months, that's with him being both the strongest player and playing zerg. Furthermore, he's an outlier. This season of GSL is prospected (maybe Taeja and MC will prove me wrong) to have yet another completely new Ro4, there again will be no repeat winner, the game seems like it's getting more volatile as time goes on, not less. What happened in the last 6 months were the flooding in of a massive amount of players, some of them extremely good. That contributed to a lot of instability. | ||
MrCash
United States1504 Posts
On February 22 2013 15:41 Sea_Food wrote: he is not. thats the biggest reason he predicts so much wrong. another reason is because the game is kinda volatile and GSL allows you to have a long time to prepare a counter build against your opponent. Knowledgeable isn't not the same is completely objective and psychic. As far as casters or commentators go, it's hard to argue for the "most knowledgeable" title for anyone else but Artosis. | ||
Maesy
United States1444 Posts
On February 22 2013 19:55 MrCash wrote: Knowledgeable isn't not the same is completely objective and psychic. As far as casters or commentators go, it's hard to argue for the "most knowledgeable" title for anyone else but Artosis. Uh... Wolf? I'd definitely say he's more knowledgeable 300 times over. I obviously won't have popular opinion/people agreeing with me on that because of the amount of Tastosis fanboys but Wolf has insane knowledge of the game and players, precise casting and very little banter. | ||
SiroKO
France721 Posts
On February 22 2013 15:49 Kennigit wrote: This has been suggested by pros, writers, community figures since 2008 when we started playing alpha builds. It has been consistently complained about (especially by idra) for years now. Ironically, if there was one game where the best player won all the time, it was Warcraft III, not Starcraft Brood War. Flash dropped lots of bo1 and bo3 against lesser players and his win ratio never exceeded 75% in proleague. While in Warcraft3, even at the peak of the game, there always was a group of ~10 players (moon, remind, grubby, lyn, fly, xiaot, tod, sky, infi, fov, sweet, ted) that were almost undefeated in lan bo1, and litteraly undefeatable in a lan bo3 against lesser players. | ||
Kasaraki
Denmark7115 Posts
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BakedButters
United States748 Posts
What happened in the last 6 months were the flooding in of a massive amount of players, some of them extremely good. That contributed to a lot of instability. What flooding of players are you talking about? They have always been there. Pros don't pop up like balloons. Recent results have gave popularity to new players that are either mostly Zerg foreigners or Kespa players | ||
achan1058
1091 Posts
On February 22 2013 20:01 BakedButters wrote: What flooding of players are you talking about? They have always been there. Pros don't pop up like balloons. Recent results have gave popularity to new players that are either mostly Zerg foreigners or Kespa players KeSPA players weren't always here. Well, they are, but they were playing BW back then. | ||
MrCash
United States1504 Posts
On February 22 2013 19:58 Maesy wrote: Uh... Wolf? I'd definitely say he's more knowledgeable 300 times over. I obviously won't have popular opinion/people agreeing with me on that because of the amount of Tastosis fanboys but Wolf has insane knowledge of the game and players, precise casting and very little banter. Banter and entertainment skills doesn't mean a person lacks knowledge. Wolf is one of very few people that could be argued for that title, I would agree. | ||
Maesy
United States1444 Posts
On February 22 2013 20:04 MrCash wrote: Banter and entertainment skills doesn't mean a person lacks knowledge. Wolf is one of very few people that could be argued for that title, I would agree. No, it doesn't mean they lack knowledge. I just appreciate hearing more about players and statistics and what players usually do in certain situations over banter. It's a personal preference. | ||
Protoss-Bah
74 Posts
On February 22 2013 15:38 Gatesleeper wrote:Why don't the best players beat the slightly less good players more often?? I actually know the answer to this question. Why is because just as for you, it has been on my mind for a very long time aswell and I have thought about this very much. At a time, always when I liked a player and bet on him to win, he is the player who looses first. And I ask myself why. The answer to that question is that: We do not know who the best player is. We think we know, but we actually do not know. Why we do not know who the best player is, is simply because we are not sitting at their teamhouse watching how much they practice. Since we don't see who practices hardcore and who takes a lot of breaks, chats, goes to facebook etc. We cannot predict who is going to win. We think that say for example, MC is a favourite going into a tournament. But we actually have no clue of how much MC practices in that very moment as he enters the tournament. Maybe someone unknown has practice 12 h/day when MC practiced 8h/day. Then when the unknown win we call it an upset. Is it an upset? Not at all, the unknown should win since he is playing harder. But we don't know that because we don't see how much they practice. How do I get to know more of who practices and who doesn't? Well, 6 months back I started adding most pro players to my friend list in Battle Net to see what people are online a lot and what people are not. Of course pro players can use secret accounts and not to talk about the |||||||| censorship, but it gives a picture. For example, now when I go into HotS Beta, those players I see online are all Korean pro players. And IdrA is actually a player who has impressed me a lot, IdrA is the foreign player who I see online the most. Therefore I expect IdrA to be able to perform pretty decently when HotS hits. KTFlash has also been online a lot, the same for M¤ForGG. Nerchio used to be online all the time when I played WoL and it shows off by Nerchio's performance in tournaments. When we know how the pro players practice, that's when we will be able to predict who wins and who doesnt. | ||
TheDougler
Canada8287 Posts
On February 22 2013 16:43 SuperYo1000 wrote: sc2 has gotten significantly more stale in the last year. Lets not ruin it and have almost predetermined tourny outcomes as our goal as a community Good point. ...Poor Artois, what's his prediction rate this season now? | ||
Maesy
United States1444 Posts
For example, now when I go into HotS Beta, those players I see online are all Korean pro players. And IdrA is actually a player who has impressed me a lot, IdrA is the foreign player who I see online the most. Therefore I expect IdrA to be able to perform pretty decently when HotS hits. KTFlash has also been online a lot. Nerchio used to be online all the time when I played WoL and it shows off by Nerchio's performance in tournaments. KTFlash on HotS beta is actually Marineking just in-case you didn't know. | ||
Mora
Canada5235 Posts
On February 22 2013 20:09 Protoss-Bah wrote: I actually know the answer to this question. Why is because just as for you, it has been on my mind for a very long time aswell and I have thought about this very much. At a time, always when I liked a player and bet on him to win, he is the player who looses first. And I ask myself why. The answer to that question is that: We do not know who the best player is. We think we know, but we actually do not know. Why we do not know who the best player is, is simply because we are not sitting at their teamhouse watching how much they practice. Since we don't see who practices hardcore and who takes a lot of breaks, chats, goes to facebook etc. We cannot predict who is going to win. We think that say for example, MC is a favourite going into a tournament. But we actually have no clue of how much MC practices in that very moment as he enters the tournament. Maybe someone unknown has practice 12 h/day when MC practiced 8h/day. Then when the unknown win we call it an upset. Is it an upset? Not at all, the unknown should win since he is playing harder. But we don't know that because we don't see how much they practice. How do I get to know more of who practices and who doesn't? Well, 6 months back I started adding most pro players to my friend list in Battle Net to see what people are online a lot and what people are not. Of course pro players can use secret accounts and not to talk about the |||||||| censorship, but it gives a picture. For example, now when I go into HotS Beta, those players I see online are all Korean pro players. And IdrA is actually a player who has impressed me a lot, IdrA is the foreign player who I see online the most. Therefore I expect IdrA to be able to perform pretty decently when HotS hits. KTFlash has also been online a lot, the same for M¤ForGG. Nerchio used to be online all the time when I played WoL and it shows off by Nerchio's performance in tournaments. When we know how the pro players practice, that's when we will be able to predict who wins and who doesnt. mind. blown. | ||
Protoss-Bah
74 Posts
On February 22 2013 20:11 Maesy wrote: KTFlash on HotS beta is actually Marineking just in-case you didn't know. I heard some people saying so on a stream, calling KTFlash Marineking. And I said on that chat as I say now that I want someone to confirm this is true before I believe it. But say that it is true, it still shows the same picture that then Marineking should be performing well in upcoming tournaments... | ||
iky43210
United States2099 Posts
honestly artosis is bad at predicting players because he is simply not that good at scouting talents. Some people can be good at the game, but are shit at adapting the meta and follow new builds. Some people are good at theorycrafting, but are terrible at execution. Just because artosis follows sc2 for a long time does not mean he is anymore knowledgeable than you are predicting X or Y pro at advancing. Besides, if you bet against artosis you would be swimming in liquidbet and probably have 70%+ success rates. That's not luck, that is simply not being observant on strength of players p.s I am honestly surprised at how many people bet on parting advancing. If you pay attention to his playstyle at all he is no good outside of a specific execution timing. I knew he would not have advanced when I saw him go against symbol, an incredibly underrated player who have been very stable since his debut. | ||
Protoss-Bah
74 Posts
I don't remember what Korean it was, either it was Hwanni or Reis or someone. MLG Providence 2011, people were speculating about who was going to win and who wasn't. The Korean guy (can't remember but I think it was Hwanni) he was like "haha you guys just don't know, Leenock will obviously win". And Leenock completely dominated everyone in the open bracket and played like ~40 games and won the whole MLG. Obviously, that guy whoever it was has more insight than us into how the pro's practice and has seen Leenocks discipline and hard work. Therefore he could accurately predict Leenock to be the winner. | ||
Andre
Slovenia3515 Posts
Anyone care to give a specific game/series that was decided by this luck? I bet no one. | ||
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