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Hi Folks- Thanks for all your brackets last week. Leta pretty much saved me $50 himself, but a couple people are still in the running. This week we quickly wrap up the ro16 and head straight to the quarterfinals. I will be going on vacation next week, so JWD will be taking the reins. His quarterfinal preview is the focus of today.
Did anyone else give a fist pump when they saw Savior put down his pool first against UpMagic in game three? As he stated in his interview, he felt that UpMagic relied too heavily on risky builds, and he would be able to overcome any early deficit regardless. Now in the round of eight, Ma Jae Yoon is a ZvZ series away from shrugging off an epic slump. His opponent is Zero, who helped his cause with two straight wins over Yellow[arnc].
The look on Flash's face after betting two-proxy-raxed out of the MSL was painful to see. His month of February has seen him pushed like no gamer before. Leta moves on, but this series was not the definitive answer to those critics who question his ability to win a bo X. A win against Luxury would go a long ways though.
The rest of the pairings were less remarkable. Stork rebounded from a lousy game one loss to clip Kwanro, and Kwark will give the highlights of that below. Free flamed out against fOrGG, who is a real dark horse I think Stork vs fOrGG could have some fireworks next round. NaDa defeated Tempest with more drop play, and Jangbi handled Frozen as the only series to end 2-0.
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Kwark's WarpI had other stuff going on last weekend so unfortunately I bailed on my MSL duties. Mani covered for me of course, but I missed the opportunity to give my thoughts on the first week of games. So I'm going to try and cover their play over the two week series rather than just this week.
free week 1free against fOrGG was just bad. No other word for it. His proxy into no units into no rush was the kind of build which should get his coach slapping him in practice. I can't think of a terran build that might work against. fOrGG just dismissed him with a counter proxy which free really should have scouted because he scouted the lack of factory in fOrGG's main but failed to work out that if it's not in his main it might be somewhere else.
free week 2free microed his first few goons badly and didn't unbug them (they bugged) to kill a tank, but showed his trademark mine dodging. Strategically he was pretty unsound all game but fOrGG was playing 20 min NR so he just went 5 base, 5 gas with more arbiters than God. PvT is made somewhat easier when your opponent camps all game off several fewer bases than you have.
Protips! When playing TvP, don't just play sim city and do your own thing for the entire game.
fOrGG did the same kind of the build game 3 as free did game 1. Only he made units with his rush and free went 13 nexus. I suppose I should give fOrGG credit for the perfect placement of that proxy rax. Free�s probe came within a hairs width of seeing it. free never really had a chance. I guess I can deduct points for going 13 nex because it's a risky build or for not scouting for proxies but whatever, in the actual game part there was nothing he could do. You have to play really badly to get 1 star from me, not just get unlucky with builds.
Protips! Either have faith in your ability to win with a safe build or just do what every other Protoss does on Carthage and proxy 99.
free week 1, 1/5 stars.
free week 2, 2/5 stars.
JangBi week 1FrOzean's build was utterly predictable so JangBi should have his counter build down perfectly. What he showed was decidedly plain. It wasn't bad. He showed some competent reaver micro mid battle and his macro was there. No real slipups or stupid mistakes. But somehow it all seemed rather forced, making very hard work of what should be an easy win. Maybe I'm being too harsh to FrOzean but while I can't find any fault with JangBi's play I'm just convinced he can do better.
Protips! Use arbiters I guess. Arbiters + macro = win?... Yeah, I know that's not much... Just the game really was that plain.
JangBi week 2Week 2 showed another safe and utterly uninspired opening from JangBi. Simply trying to get safely into the late game by playing 20 min NR. Once there JangBi showed textbook fast arbiter play. Picking apart a well built defense with good recalls, multitasking, attacking on several fronts and constant macro. It was fun to watch. Admittedly it was FrOzean, so not the greatest of opponents, but still good. This is what I'd expect from a player like JangBi, but no more.
Protips! Know your opponent and play to your strengths. If you know you can take the late game from them then just play safe and get yourself in a position to win.
JangBi week 1, 3/5 stars.
JangBi week 2, 4/5 stars.
Tempest week 1Tempest had a cute FE build but the lack of scouting pylons in his main is inexcusable. I can say without a shadow of a doubt that a JangBi would have had them. It's just one of those things that costs little to do and pays off big when it counts. Habits like that separate the good from the great. The rest of the game was an interesting macro war but throwing away arbiters and stacking them where he can see them so they get EMP�ed ensured it could only go one way. If I had to sum it up in a word that word would be amateurish.
Tempest week 2Tempest�s 1 gate obs exp 2nd gate build was a soft counter to NaDa's vult rush. Tempest dealt with the rush competently. The bulldog was a nice touch and his macro was as good as ever. Game 2 showed him playing to his potential, lacking the polished touches of JangBi or the raw ability of Bisu but still getting the job done with excellent macro.
Protips! Keep making those observers. Maphack is good, use it.
Tempest made a poor job at fending off the early bunker rush, firstly by allowing the bunker to finish and secondly by allocating his attacks very badly when killing it. Obviously whoever he practices with at KTF doesn't challenge his FEs because I would expect better. NaDa did the same drop play all 3 games but when in game 3, when the dropship failed to run into an observer as it did in the game 2, Tempest seemed completely unprepared. That makes me question the coaching to be honest. If I was his coach I'd have told him "he's going to drop you, place scouting pylons" before game 3. Maybe he did though. As for Tempest's attack. Just no...
Tempest made as many sloppy mistakes as you'd expect of him but his inability to control a large army and his bad defense of his FE are inexcusable. At the very least I expect him to do well at his strengths.
Protips! Stasis the tanks at the back or you'll just block yourself. Don't attack up ramps where your own units block each other. �EEditors note: PLEASE LISTEN TO THIS MAN!
Tempest week 1, 1/5 stars.
Tempest week 2, 1/5 stars.
Stork week 1Jesus man. You're playing Kwanro. What did you expect? Would an extra cannon or two really have lost you the late game if he was playing standard? A simple risk/reward analysis should have told Stork to play safe and just try to survive to take the win late game.
Protips! When you're much better than someone and they always try and cheese just play safe. Even if it puts you at a disadvantage when they don't cheese, you're better than them, you can overcome it. And it's less of a disadvantage than the alternative where you get a dozen hydra crammed down your throat.
Stork week 2Stork had a cute build. As we saw, it's pretty cheese-proof. Failing to find that second overlord with his sairs almost cost him the game but he recovered it nicely. Then there was his reaction to the muta switch. Stork took one look at the hydra count and promptly wasted both his only two storms asap and then merged into an archon while cannoning his main. His archon only just made it in time and if it hadn't the cannons wouldn't have. This was nice. That kind of tech switch was an execution, it should have taken the punch out of Stork's zeestorm and stopped him expanding for a while. Instead it won Stork the game.
Protips! Read what you don't see as well as what you see. Stork saw how few hydras Kwanro had at his base, assigned Kwanro a range of options and concluded that archon asap was very good against the worst (for Stork) of these options and not too bad against the others. The poker players among you will recognize this advice but it's amazing how applicable it is to bw. When you don't know what they're holding assign them a range and guess the proportion of each of their options. Then judge the success rate of each of your options against each of his and then weight that proportionately against the likelihood of each of his options to find the optimal route. Oh, and do all that in a split second.
The third game had good improvisation with the dual probe scout. That was kind of nice, drilling one in while the other distracted. It didn't work but whatever, it showed that Stork is adapting to Kwanro's style by intensive scouting. He also played safer than usual. Not safe enough but he certainly gave himself a fighting chance against that ling rush. Finally, he had good scouting against the drop, and thus shut down Kwanro's build completely.
Protips! Again with the risk/reward/range analysis. Costs very little to send a probe to a base to check these things. Even if you see nothing there that tells you not to bother leaving a stormer in your main and cannoning etc. And if it wins 1 game in 10 where you "get lucky" straight off then it's worth it. Good players make their own luck.
Stork week 1, 2/5 stars.
Stork week 2, 5/5 stars.
Quarterfinal 1 Preview
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sAviOr vs ZerO
Career vZ: 48-33 (59%) Career vZ: 18-15 (55%)
Last 10 vZ: 7-3 Last 10 vZ: 7-3
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sAviOr vs ZerO Career vZ: 48-33 (59%) Career vZ: 18-15 (55%)
Last 10 vZ: 7-3 Last 10 vZ: 7-3
The Lost Saga MSL round of eight kicks off on February 26 with a most unlikely matchup, in terms of both the race and the players it involves. Zerg versus Zerg is the MSL's "lost mirror" - the ClubDay MSL was heavy in PvP series and the Arena MSL in TvT, but together these two tournaments account for just three ZvZ games past group stages (ClubDay's truly forgettable Ro16 match between Yarnc and Type-B-team). Five-game ZvZ series are even rarer: to attend the MSL's last, you'd have to take your wayback machine to June 17, 2007. On this day almost two years ago, GoRush 3-0d July in the GOMTV MSL S2.
The GOMTV MSL S2 pitted Bisu against Stork in their epic five-set final, but it's perhaps equally famous as the venue for Savior's fall from grace. After 2-0ing Stork in the Ro16, Ma Bonjwa dropped out of the tournament 2-3 to firebathero in the Ro8. FBH danced his way into the hearts of annoying fanboys everywhere, and Savior hasn't reached a Starleague final since.
Thus, Savior's presence in this series is as surprising as its racial makeup. The last bonjwa is out to prove he's finally escaped the funk that saw him drop to CJ's B-team last June, and in his eyes that means reaching the semifinals of this MSL (see his post-Ro16 interview).
While the rabidity of Savior's fanbase may make him the most overrated Zerg in StarCraft, his opponent is among the most underrated. Zero is one of just a handful of Zergs to boast a winning record against Terrans in recent months, and he's fresh off WL wins over Stork, BeSt, and Fantasy. Zero's ZvZ is not to be underestimated: he's 7-3 in his last 10 and gave Jaedong a great game on Sin Chupung-Ryeong at the beginning of this month. Zero's other two losses in his last 10 ZvZs are to Yarnc (the 1set of his Ro16 match) and...Savior, who 9pooled Zero's 12hatch for an easy win in group stages.
Though Savior's experience gives him a huge psychological advantage in series play, I don't think mind games will be enough to overcome Zero's sublime muta control. The Woongjin Zerg dwelled on the state of his nerves in his post-Ro16 interview, but climbing out of an 0-1 hole to upset Yarnc in his first-ever Starleague series speaks louder: ZerO has the balls to back his raw skill. Rabid Savior fanbase be damned, I pick ZerO in four.
Quarterfinal 2 Preview
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Leta vs Luxury
Career vZ: 16-6 (73%) Career vT: 40-33 (55%)
Last 10 vZ: 8-2 Last 10 vT: 5-5
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Leta vs LuxuryCareer vZ: 16-6 (73%) Career vT: 40-33 (55%)
Last 10 vZ: 8-2 Last 10 vT: 5-5
Thought question: which of these two quarterfinalists was more relieved when Leta's BBS sent Flash home in the Ro16? Leta survived an elimination game in his first-ever MSL series, but Luxury avoided a best-of-five with an opponent who is a) his teammate and b) Flash. Backstage after the Ro16, I hear Luxury snuck Leta a kiss while Flash wasn't looking.
Though Lux must be happy he's not up against the Ultimate Weapon, Leta is also a formidable opponent. The last two times Luxury faced Leta, he was embarrassed by clever wraith builds on Destination - but the OGN Terran can own Zergs straight up as well. Leta's career vZ is well above 70%, and thus it should come as no surprise that he pulled a Zerg into his OSL group.
Leta's OSL group will be a major factor in this series. While Luxury can spend the next five days ZvTing on MSL maps and hopping into bed at night with the knowledge that his spot in the OSL Ro8 is secure, Leta must prepare to battle for his OSL life against Fantasy and by.hero - OSL tiebreaks are the night before his series with Lux. Flash's consistently early Starleague exits are a lesson in the importance of practice time, and applying that lesson here makes me favor Luxury. I predict Lux in five, and revenge for KTFlash.
On February 18th, the night of Flash and Luxury's last OSL Ro16 games and the night before the conclusions of their MSL Ro16 series, KTF faced eSTRO in the Winners League. After hyvaa put eSTRO up 2-0, Luxury bombed the third set and forced KTF to send out a very tired-looking Flash. While Lux kicked it on the KTF bench, Flash played four games but lost the last - falling just short of a reverse all-kill. Flash was visibly distressed after dropping the 7set to UpMagiC:
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Luxury went on to beat Kal in the OSL and then Hwasin in the MSL, sealing his advancement in both leagues. Flash, on the other hand, lost to BeSt and Leta to drop out of both. I don't want to incite TL's many conspiracy theorists, but...maybe Flash should start throwing his WL games? The most painful part of this entire saga is that, with Luxury in both Starleagues and Flash in none, KTF will probably increase their reliance on Flash in the Proleague.
Well, that is it for me. I am off for March, so enjoy the rest of the tourney! Thanks to JWD for filling in.
Cheers
Mani, Kwark, and JWD
