WCS Europe Season 3

Ro32 Group A Preview
NaNiwa, TargA, ToD, ForGG

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Youtube (soon)

Only a week and half after Europe hosted the WCS Season 2 finals we're back to do it all again. This season is all about securing a ticket to the grand finals at Blizzcon, probably via the season 3 finals in Toronto. Europe is currently underrepresented at the very top of the current WCS points list. Only highest ranking player, Mvp at #7 with 3500 points, seems somewhat secure with a 1150 point buffer between himself and #16. But the same cannot be said about the others from Europe.

After Mvp comes a set of players who are right on the cusp of qualifying. NaNiwa (#12, 2600) is only 400 points clear while duckdeok (#14, 2400) and MC (#15, 2375) are both less than 100 points clear of #16. All three will be looking to secure their places this season. Outside of the top 16 we have ForGG (#19, 2050), TLO (#20, 2025), Grubby (#24, 1750) and MMA (#26, 1650) who all desperately need to land themselves in the season 3 finals (i.e. top 5 finish this season) else Blizzcon isn't happening.

This season there is everything to prove, and even more to lose. Game on.

Group A: NaNiwa, TargA, ToD, ForGG

by Zealously

Every now and then a player will bring his game to the next level to perform beyond their usual level. Many players have, over the course of their careers, had one or two stretches where they’re just on fire beating opponents most would consider superior.

Naniwa's runs in Code S are talked about a lot, but I feel like what he has done over the last 3-4 months has been more impressive. High-profile opponents include Dear, Jaedong, MMA, the Durán brothers, duckdeok and Innovation. Out of all his matches over the last four months. perhaps the biggest story is probably Naniwa going 1-5 against duckdeok before their final showoff at the Season Finals. Naniwa managed to take him out 2-0 to advance despite the fact that the Swede has been notably weak against players he considers inferior. This tendency could potentially come back to bite him in this group, however, as he’s put up against TargA first – a player who, when you’re coming off beating Innovation and the EU champion, might deemed unworthy.

As for Targa, his greatest advantage against Naniwa is the amount of information there is about Naniwa's PvZ from the sheer number of games he's played over the past few months. Naniwa’s greatest strength is intuitive leaps that put him ahead of the metagame. But during the gaps between such leaps he is at his weakest, especially against decent players without major results – a description that fits the Norwegian Zerg perfectly. Targa will for sure know what went down in Naniwa vs. Tefel in season 1, and if the past is anything to go by – and against Naniwa it usually is – aggression will be the path to go down for the Targa. Naniwa likes to play greedy; he did it against Jaedong and he does it frequently against all kinds of players. If Targa catches wind of this and brings one or two clever all-ins to the table, I can see Naniwa falling handlessly to... Maybe the second "worst player in the world"?

On the other side of the group, two (kind of) Frenchmen face off as ForGG goes up against ToD. This is a difficult match-up to call, with ForGG’s notable inability to play TvP going up against ToD’s juggling of WCS casting and WCS playing. Being able to pull off both speaks volumes in ToD’s favor, but ForGG ended the ATC on a high-note by taking out HerO, while ToD – although qualifying for Premier – hasn't done anything very notable in any match-up recently having hit a rough patch just after his qualification for Premier League.

The big question is whether or not one player will bring something match-up specific to the table. It’s a stretch, but ToD talks a lot about how strong the Protoss late-game is and recent trends in PvT seem to support this opinion. On the other hand, ForGG is the kind of player who has no issues with abusing a certain build to make it far into tournaments – once he finds a suitable one that is. This could be an important advantage in a group where two players are Protoss. Both versus ToD and in a potential match against Naniwa, I feel like the early to mid-game will be ForGG’s time to shine. The guy knows his timings and is no slouch in terms of control and a quick two-base timing can catch anyone off-guard, especially someone intent on reaching the three-base stage quickly.

Looking at this group, Targa and ToD seem like the underdogs. ToD has to juggle a regular casting gig with his playing and has gone 0-10 in his last 10 games, whereas ForGG has gone 10-0 against opponents of similar level to the ones ToD played. Targa’s situation is slightly better, going 5-5 in his last 10 with a notable 2-1 win over qualifier hero San, but given the level of play Naniwa has displayed in all three match-ups recently (against Zerg in particular), I put advancement from this group out of reach for both Targa and ToD. Their one saving grace could potentially be prepared builds that work well against periodically inflexible players such as Naniwa (whose weakest match-up also happens to be PvP, which can be even more dangerous if your opponent comes prepared and you don't), but on most days this group should only turn out in one way.

Prediction
Naniwa > Targa
ForGG > ToD
Naniwa > ForGG
Targa > ToD
ForGG > Targa

Naniwa and ForGG advance.


Upcoming Groups
Sept 4: duckdeok, TLO, Happy, SaSe
Sept 5: VortiX, Noname, Mvp, ShoWTimE
Sept 10: Grubby, Genius, Starbuck, LucifroN

Writers: Zealously
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Banner photo: ESL
Editor: Plexa.