On July 14 2013 03:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 17:01 Umasi wrote:
why is me thinking he's slightly towny a big deal though? I wouldn't say it's a big deal. I just wanted to see what evidence you had gathered to make your read, because it's useful for the town if you can help us identify Chrom as town. @Chrom: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:17 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +@Chrom: Can you explain what this post means? On July 13 2013 13:23 Chromatically wrote:
If everyone who just randomly popped out to soft call me sum could actually give their opinions on the situation, that'd be great. I also have a nitpick with this post: On July 13 2013 14:04 Chromatically wrote:
Yes, we'll technically never be able to totally disprove the possibility that Stim is town. It's just far less likely. Look at what Stim has done.
Lie about his anger
Town motivation: none
Scum motivation: screwed up the explanation because the anger was faked in the first place
Martyr
Town motivation: none, far more likely that he just explains
Scum motivation: knows he can't explain, so he acts emotional to get people to switch I feel like the anger was definitely real, and StiM was trying play play Mr. Cool Cat by claiming that he was really in control the whole time, and just pretended to be angry. Still not clear what that motivation could have been, but the above 2x2 leaves out some key points and I feel you're making a bit more assumptions that you usually do... Several people suddenly posted to tell Stim that I could be scum, and then didn't actually give an opinion on Stim. It was really wierd. You've brought up this same idea a few times about Stim trying to "act cool", but I don't see any particular reason to believe it. Why do you? As I've said before, there will always be a possibility of a town explanation, it's just less likely. If Stim is town, he'll return with a clear explanation. If you want to bring up meta, town should have lynched Stim in XLII. He could have easily been scum, and I said as much in the obs. A more convincing point is that Stim never reacted this way to pressure in XLIII, even though several votes were thrown on him over the course (if I remember). Hypothetical: If Stim doesn't return, what will you do? If Stim hadn't have returned, I'd probably drop the issue entirely and focus my efforts elsewhere, anticipating a /replacement or mod action. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:28 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 16:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 16:02 Umasi wrote:
Alright, here, hurricane. Who do you think is worth voting at this time?
From your post, I got the gist that it'd be Superfluous or me. Is that correct? I'm still a bit mad at StiM for his post implying that it was our job to keep him entertained. I'm going to give myself some time to cool off on that, because I don't appreciate people quitting on my team (if he is in fact town). This is a time investment for everybody, and it's damn selfish of him to pack up his ball and go home after really light pressure. Townville: Kirby pressured me appropriately after my opener. I like that. He also seems to have the same attitude as me regarding the quick StiMwagon: On July 13 2013 13:31 jrkirby wrote:
2 votes land on a guy is quick succession, I'd be stupid if I weren't at least a BIT suspicious. As far as I can tell, stim is just acting like a bit of an idiot, is flustered, and frustrated. Doesn't seem like scumtell to me. You're free to have your vote, and I don't have a solid scumread on either of you, but I will be looking a bit more closely at your filters. hz is aggressively posting reads and seems to emulate my thoughts on the early Superfluous post: On July 13 2013 09:42 hzflank wrote:I think Jrkirby's and Sponge's opening posts had the same motivation: to get discussion moving. Both have done this and we have multiple discussions taking place. Since then, Sponge did a little coaching. Sponge has come under pressure from multiple people (for his opening post), and has dealt with it while being reasonably open. The only time that he has not been open is by refusing to post the other version of his opening post. Sponge did a little coaching again as he tried to stop Umasi from defending him. So far my read on Sponge has moved very slightly towards town. Since his opening, Jrkirby has attacked Sponge for his opening post, and done nothing else. That's fine because it is early and Jrkirby is pushing to get a reaction from someone. This is not scummy to me, null read. Umasi has defended Hurricane, which cannot be viewed as scummy at this point. Umasi has attacked Superfluous. I would say that this attack could be scummy as it is based on nothing, but it could just be to get Super to post more (he only has one post). Umasi then repeats that he thinks Super's post is scummy and votes for him. The problem I have with this is that Umasi claims Super's only post was scummy, when I do not think that it was. On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. If Umasi was looking for a reaction then I do not understand why he posted: On July 13 2013 08:59 Umasi wrote:
Where the hell are you. You popped in, gave a single post, that I think is scummy as crap, still haven't show back up. Pretty confusing, because the post you gave was irrelevant. How was Super's post scummy as crap? I do not think that Umasi is looking for scum, and if he is not just fishing for Super to respond then I think that Umasi is just looking for a neutral place to put his early vote. Unlike Jrkirby's, Umasi's vote is not a troll vote. I have a slight scum read on Umasi. Xzavier posted some decent thoughts (although he really didn't go out on any limbs): On July 13 2013 11:19 Xzavier wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. i know usami has touched on this, but i see voting for No-lynch is like sacrificing a townie or playing russian roullet for zero prize money. its just basically saying "i want to start this game a townie down" it seems silly to me, if somebody comes and gives me an ungodly reason for no-lynching ill hear it. but i see it as silly. Also from playing with usami before, hes a super fucking hyper aggressive person who needs like a single post to tunnel somebody for a full day, that can be bad. we need to keep our eyes open and looking at multiple people. As i learned my first game, a tunnel vision day1 can lead to a mislynch, or in this gametype, a no-lynch. Its far better to lynch scum, and thats what we should try to do. Even day1 we lynch either a lurker or our top scumread, if nobody has any strong scumreads, lynching the scummiest lurker is the best townplay day1. (it yields the highest chance of killing scum while creating the best pro-town enviroment) with that im also shocked of how active stim-addict is being. its nice to see a usual lurker picking it up leaving less for the scum to hide behind :D again, even Superfluous is at the top of my scumdar, he isnt high enough to deserve a vote yet. I want to lynch a lurker or superfluous depending on how he reacts to our posts and the events of the day. if the rest of it goes uneventful/no major scumslips i want to fuck up a lurker as i believe that to be the best pro-town action. Rainbows is active and is claiming credit for the StiM wagon. If StiM is town, as I suspect, I don't think scum would be claiming lead on an eventual green flip: On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Planet Neutral:I've found confusing material on Chrom that some may deem scummy (misrepresenting facts, leaping to conclusions, overblowing alignment-neutral mistakes). However, he also did his usual early game Poke'n'Prod, getting people to clarify their random claims that might otherwise have gone unchecked (very town). Umasi is incredibly active, and hunting. The logic leaps, confirmation bias, and clumsy attacks aren't really helping the town, however (other than to just provide really obvious pressure). If there was a shade between Green and Black, I'd use it because I think the three options for Umasi are 'Bad Town' 'Good Scum' and 'Good Town That I Just Have Trouble Reading For Whatever Reason'. Scum Central:Superfluous has a lot of ground to make up. I don't like people attacking him for his bad policy, but at the end of the day, that's not the only thing going against him. I really disagree with his reads, and that has to account for something: On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. These are some wierd-ass wierd reads (formatted in a list, might I add...). You give town reads to a large number of people based on almost nothing? You say that me and Umasi are actively scumhunting, and then say we're null? All followed by a sheep on Super while waiting to commit to Stim. It all feels really odd. Why is xzavier more townie then Umasi/me? Why did you post town reads in the first place? I'm surprised you do not agree with my reads. I shall re-evaluate them. You are Neutral to me for the reasons I mentioned: while you and Umasi are scumhunting (+), I believe you're doing it in an anti-town manner (-). That is: making logical leaps, confirmation bias, poor analysis. Scum can scumhunt too, and that's exactly how I imagine they'd do it. I also don't feel like I'm sheeping Superfluous. I raised some independent analysis regarding him in my earlier post (centering on the fact that our reads are very different, signifying a disconnect from my own POV that is significant enough to be Town-Scum). Are there any other glaring mistakes in particular you'd like to hear my thoughts on? Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 19:37 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 15:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Chrom has made a couple missteps that I would consider 'uncharacteristic'. At the very least, they are poor play I did not expect from him. 1. His enthusiasm to lynch StiM after the blow-up (surely we can all see that it was more likely immature and pissy play from StiM and alignment-independent) contained logical leaks and overblows the importance of whether StiM lied about being mad or not. 2. Saying Superfluous was trying to not 'make waves' when he was the lone voice speaking up for an unpopular policy (Day 1 No Lynch) More importantly, when viewed as a whole, the bolded section above is a big stop sign on my vote to lynch StiM: Why would scum not alert StiM that everyone and their mother knew the jokepost was a joke and let him carry on in this manner? He'd have to be willfully disobeying his team, or (more likely) flying solo. If someone can give me a satisfactory answer to that, I'd feel much better about a StiM lynch. 1) You seem confident that Stim's blowup was alignment independent, can you address my earlier posts about why it's more likely from scum? I think it's pretty hard to overblow the importance of someone lying about their motivation without being able to explain it. You disagree? 2) The apologetic tone is the entire reason why Super looks bad. He's trying not to draw attention to himself and not to incite anyone (scummy). The Nolynch thing is totally non alignment indicative, which you should know. Explain your scumread on Super more. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. I really don't like that last part where he gives one lurker the FoS, but a second one a free pass in the same post. I don't like that his reads seem diametrically opposed to mine, which implies a significant difference in frame-of-reference. I don't like his case on HZ (which is a case in name only). I don't like that he's suspicious of townies who enter the thread willing to lynch. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 21:48 Chromatically wrote:
Sponge, could you also elaborate on you Umasi read? As I told Umasi late last night when we were the only two in the thread, I love his scumhunting, but I cringe at his methods. He's got a big problem with confirmation bias and attacking his target when he should just be poking, bringing the level of discourse down into the mud too soon. Like I said in the earlier post, I think he's Green-Black: Bad Town, Good Scum, or Good Town That I Just Can't Read. The early game aggression is much preferred to the alternative (lurking), but if he keeps some of these traits up into the late game, I'm worried for town. Moving on: Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 21:54 Koshi wrote:I am from Belgium guys, This game started at 12PM and I was tired after a working week. I read the thread once now and my initial (this is without using filters, just reading all the posts) is that H.Sponge build enough town kred to not get lynched day 1 no matter what. I loved his opening post, and I loved his defense on that post. Even if he is scum, he has been very helpful to town, and every town should go and read that opening post. Scum reads are on Umasi and Chroma. Umasi because his entire early posts were just sucking up to H.Sponge, which is just not useful at all, H. Sponge clearly doesn't need to be defended like this. Another thing I dont like about Umasi is him trying to redirect the thread twice for a Superfluous train on a rather useless moment. Superfluous entered the thread with a bad post, but went afk after, which is not a clear scumread. Not enough the get a train going, and make the rest of the day useless. Chroma is currently tunneling so heavily on StiMaDDict. The guy is afk, treat him as an afk bad town till he comes back. It is a good thing to spark some conversation around StiMaDDict, but at this point I feel that Chroma is derailing more than necessarily. It's just tunneling into oblivion. I start filtering now: Reading Chroma his filter I get a serious scum vibe. Post like this: On July 13 2013 11:39 Chromatically wrote:
Also just noticed that Sponge hasn't given a single opinion on anyone all game after saying that he wanted people to judge him on his scumhunting, interesting. This is just being a jack-ass, at least it would be if you say things like this in real life. In mafia it is trying to put suspicion onto somebody without saying anything. I haven't crosschecked this message with the referring Sponge message but it feels dirty. What was your intention while typing this down Chromo? @ Chromo, Do you agree that this is a very suspicious post? And explain to me why it is "interesting" that Sponge likes to have interaction on his scumreads while playing this game? Reading Umasi his filter after the Chroma filter makes me want to lynch one of these 2 guys. Umasi and Chroma are either bromancing it up on the stimaddict lynch, or they are both scum. Here is Umasi his game till now: --> Defend Sponge while pushing lynch on Superfluous. --> Argue with Sponge about Chroma while pusing a lynch on StiMaDDict. I hate Umasi and Chrom as lynch targets for Day 1. Town does not want to lynch guys this active and scumhunting this hard. Regardless of the fact that I think Superfluous is scummier at this point, I'd push for a Lurker lynch over one of either of Umasi or Chrom. ---------------- Current Events: I think StiM's case on Kirby is weak. Lots of fallacies in there. Everything quoted is interpreted single-mindedly as scum, and even the stuff that's pro town is justified as 'this is clearly scum trying to look town'.
Please re read this post. He doesnt like someone because they have a different POV. Italso seems like he wants people to be with his scumhunting methods.
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