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Pick Your Poison Mafia
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
1) It is useful to know which mafia role we elect, yet 2) Deciding ahead of time publicly gives them an advantage in picking the town roles. To get around this quandary, I suggest we encrypt our vote selections for mafia role, and post the encrypted results. I haven't exactly googled but I assume there are websites that do that (I heard this technique referenced in the pick your poison game). Then after the selection phase we post the keys, and we can subsequently tally the votes. The primary usefulness is that it reveals what mafia role is in play. Secondarily it has the benefit of forcing scum to lie, which could be situationally useful later: e.g. we elect GF as scum role with RB in close second. Then someone gets RB'd (for the sake of argument, let's say it's an innocent child for best case scenario). Now we know that someone who voted GF is scum, as the scum can't vote for their own role, and therefore their vote wouldn't count. Thoughts? | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 13:04 slOosh wrote: I like that reasoning HiroPro, but it makes the assumption that we will be split between 2 candidates. No doubt that mafia will play to the poison, adopting a playstyle that abuses said poisons for their advantage. The secret hidden vote poison is most powerful when there are multiple suspects / lynch candidates, and weakest when the town as a total is consolidated and not near lylo. I'm inclined to think that D1 is the easiest day to fissure the town and bring up multiple lynch suspects and split votes, and potentially drive the fear of no-lynch into guide town into a mislynch. It will probably be a weaker poison on D2 where it is more difficult to bring up serious lynch candidates, opposed to D1 when bringing up anyone is all cool and no reason for suspicion. Right now it is even number, and unless we get a medic prot (which is great), then with one lynch and one night kill we will have even number D2. Thoughts on the lynch lock? Lynch lock is the same any day it's used. I'm not even sure it's that dangerous late game. Hiro is right. The two worst poisons late game are secret vote and majority +1 required (which means scum literally can't be lynched if it's 2v1, for instance). Hidden ballot is in the same boat as no flip - terrible unless it's the last day. I think majority + 1 is the best to get out of the way day one. We will have to avoid a no lynch no matter what, and one extra vote shouldn't be too hard to come by. I don't like secret vote because in the event that the vote is close and the scum use it to pick one candidate over the other there's going to be a lot of distracting wifom debating why they chose who they chose. Better to just never pick that poison at all. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 13:42 HiroPro wrote: I kind of disagree with this, because in the voting system that we have, "secret hidden vote" can never change the result from 1 candidate to another; in the worst-case scenarios all it can do is either change it from "highest vote-getter" to no lynch, or from no lynch to "highest vote-getter". So essentially it's like a secret pardon that only mafia can use, or a secret trap door too I guess. As long as number of voters is even and people actually vote carefully (consolidate on 2 candidates), "secret hidden vote" is not that dangerous. How do you go from highest vote getter to no-lynch with a secret vote? From the rules it seems that if a player gets a majority of the votes first they are going to be lynched no matter what, because ties do not cause a no lynch. The dangers of secret vote are in the following two scenarios: 1) vote is tied, majority to majority (6v6 on day one, e.g.) Then picking this poison and ending up in this scenario means we might as well have elected mafia mayor, as they decide who gets lynched and wifom ensues. Which means we would have to avoid a 6v6, which means we might as well have just used majority +1 poison. 2)vote is not tied (say 6-5-1), but mafia uses the secret vote early on the player who ends up with 5 votes. Then that player would be sent home. Again to avoid this scenario we aim for 7 votes, which means of course we might as well have used majority +1 poison. Majority +1 and secret vote are both equally dangerous at the end of the game. If it's 1 mafia v 3 town, majority +1 means all three town have to correctly identify the mafia. Same goes for secret vote. Yet secret vote has the potential to give mafia mayor day one (outlined above) while majority +1 does not. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 13:43 wherebugsgo wrote: hiro is correct. If we are to use the secret vote it should be on days where we have an even number of players alive. I'm starting to think I'm mathing incorrectly but isn't it the case that there should always be an even number of players alive during the day phase? The only way there isn't is with a medic protect, assuming we don't no lynch. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 23:44 prplhz wrote: I don't understand this. How does that open up the possibility for them to get busted for lying? The idea is that something like what sbrubbles posted happens. Which is the only advantage of encryption in the first place - Radfield is right in that encryption is meaningless in the sense of that townies will tell the truth and mafia will lie. But it's theoretically easier for mafia to lie when they can see how the townies are voting, and therefore blend themselves into the majority more easily. If they have to all pick beforehand without full knowledge of what town is doing or what town is going to say they pick, they run the risk of some weird vote totals happening. The problem with what I just posted is that it's only theoretical at this point - I think Radfield and toad are correct about roleblocker being weakest for them, which means practically speaking I don't think the vote will be close at all. ________________________ On the poisons: 1) From skimming the thread I see the idea of "it's so hard to reach majority day one" pop up (I think from toad). Is anyone else genuinely scared of this? I'm not at all. If everyone is then we can go for mayoral election, but I think that is a waste. 2) Majority day one is 6 votes (12/2 rounded up). First person to 6 votes gets lynched. If we have to get 6 votes anyway, then why not 7? I think majority + 1 is relatively safe here. I'm pretty sure HiroPro is right in that we only have to use five poisons (12 10 8 6 4 assuming there's only one scum left by the end and no vig shots or medic blocks or no lynches). So let's not get carried away thinking we have to use majority +1 AND secret mafia vote when we can just use majority +1 and never bother with the secret mafia vote. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 31 2012 04:19 Toadesstern wrote: I think the instant majority poison does us no damage at all. We're going to have a hard time getting a majority anyways. At least that'y the way the most recent games played out. It's not like mafia will hop in there "olol let's hammer" and get 3 votes on the same guy lynching a townie. It would need coordination because we'd want to know who people are willing to vote for before actually voting to ensure we don't end the cycle early. If we can manage that coordination that poison looks the weakest d1 to me. But it's kinda risky if people lack the patience / coordination to talk things through before voting. That being said I'm not going to vote the majority +1 poison because as mentioned I think we're already going to have a hard time getting a majority anyways. The +1 vote for mafia poison seems okay and there's really not a lot that could go wrong like that and it might be dangerous later in the game. So yeah I'm willing to vote those two and as I'm apparently the only one that thinks the instant majority thing is not dangerous on d1 it's going to be the +1 vote for mafia poison. I don't follow this - the difference between +1 majority and +1 mafia vote is either us having to get 6 votes together or us having to get 7 votes together. If you're really scared about getting a majority together day one then why aren't you pushing for mayoral election? | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
Mafia secret vote gives mafia the power to decide the vote (i.e. electing mafia mayor) in any of the following vote totals: 6-6 6-5-1 5-5-2 5-anything that adds up to 7. In this case mafia decides whether to lynch the player with 5 or let a no lynch happen. Which means we might as well go for 7 votes, which means we might as well use majority + 1 and never let mafia ever have a secret vote in the game. Hidden ballot is less dangerous endgame than secret vote, even. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 31 2012 05:55 Zephirdd wrote: you do realize that secret vote and mayor can't happen at the same time, right? I'm saying that if there is secret vote and any of those voting scenarios happen, it's as if we've effectively elected mafia mayor for the day. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/ ZZZZZ ILTQG LNVIF XWBWP QCJPH XGHTW IJBFH ADBGR WPKRG SXHRQ FQRXH DQAIH GKFIB KJVBP AHAMV AWLHH WXONO QUIBB ITBDP XSACT NIUPI UTAET ENGVF UCJBI OAXCD IFWNJ OPTZZ YYYYY ##### End encrypted message | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 31 2012 08:27 Radfield wrote: Secret ballot is actually pretty non-scary once we only have 1 mafia left. I would probably rather slot Secret Ballot into Day 5, bump everything else up 1 and take out Majority +1 or 24 hour cycle. Majority +1 is a poor Day 2 slot, and should be used for a day when we have an obvious lynch target. Really though, none of the poisons are very dangerous if we use them appropriately. Was just about to post the same thing. I've been saying the whole time I really don't think we need to use both majority +1 and secret hidden vote. If there's going to be a day 6 somehow, then hidden lynch is fine on day 5 because we don't need to know the flip - either the game ends or it doesn't and secret ballot doesn't really matter day 6. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
What is it about radfield that is so convincing to you? (1) First, On May 30 2012 20:01 prplhz wrote: Since the mafia role selection is done in PMs and we're not going to have the voting results or the role itself revealed, scum is free to do whatever. There are only two ways to know for sure what role mafia got and that is 1) to get majority+3 voting for a single role and 2) flip the scum who got the role. talismania's encrypted vote idea should be implemented because it's never going to hurt and it will create some content that we can use for analysis. Regarding the roles: Godfather is the safest because scum can only use it in two ways (have Godfather carry out night kills or not), this will make for the least confusion among potential town blues. Framer is the worst to give them because it will allow scum (and also townies and blues) to question all checks made by cop/tracker. Role blocker is also potentially useful for scum, especially in connection with claims (and counterclaims and fake claims) which I think could become very important this game. Will anybody get told if they are roleblocked? I think it's more beneficial for town to reach majority+3 consensus on a role than it is for mafia that we do it. So I think we should all agree that Godfather is the safest thing we can do because it allows for the least manipulation by scum and the simplest logic always applying for town. The only down side is that potential cop can't always trust town checks but that's very much acceptable. I don't think scum will focus much on the role that they get when they consider the roles that they give us. Can scum pick two of the same role to give to town or do they have to pick two different roles? As for the poison, my thoughts have already been stated. We should try to eliminate poisons that get stronger as early as possible. Majority+1 and secret vote are the best candidates for this. Here are my thoughts (list is malleable): Use first: Majority+1, secret vote, secret ballot Use in the mid game: Mayoral election, lynch lock Use at LYLO or late game: No flip, 24 hour lynch Some people already said that we will be at even number players all game long baring medic saves, but vigilantes could also screw this up. Also, the no flip is not only alignment, it is also role which may suck since we cannot know if we killed the Godfather or just a goon. @Kurumi Could you give us the reason behind your thoughts? Then Bunch of radfield posts about roleblocker being the weakest scum role Followed by On May 30 2012 22:31 prplhz wrote: Okay I'm convinced by Radfield. Either we get investigative roles we can trust, or we get roles from vigilante/medic/child pool which is pretty sweet. Both child and vigilante can easily confirm themselves and a medic save would extend the game by a full day. Anyway, I'm voting for role blocker. I was a little worried about role blocker interfering with power roles but the chance of even hitting power roles isn't that big and we shouldn't rely on them too much anyway. (2) First, On June 01 2012 00:38 prplhz wrote: Well, let me say that I am very disappointed in wherebugsgo so far. It doesn't look like he cares about town winning this game at all. In his first post he asks host a question, but he never got an answer to that question even though I got an answer to my questions that I posted later. That didn't bother him at all. His participates in the discussion about poisons and his thoughts are alright but it doesn't look like he cares at all what role we pick for mafia. This is bad because if we end up with split wagons then we cannot know what role they have and they'll end up being able to argue for any role. 1-shot claims and has a green check? They can argue that he checked the godfather. Red check? They can argue that he was framed. They'll be able to push a chaotic agenda way easier than if we know what role they got. Scum knows town roles and the only way town can know scum role is if we get majority+3 or a flip but wherebugsgo doesn't seem to care about majority+3. He doesn't seem to mind if the votes are split evenly across roleblocker+framer at all. He looks like he doesn't care at all about what happens this game and I that's scummy. Then On June 01 2012 01:13 Radfield wrote: I agree with that assessment prplhz, though I will say that I'm pretty sure I have seen bugs play this way before as town. I'm a Cop You Idiot comes to mind, but I'll have to double check. Also, bugs standard scum play is NOT generally ambivalence and coasting. I would say he's one of the most active scum players on the forum. Followed by On June 01 2012 01:25 prplhz wrote: Yea this doesn't look like his typical scum play. But wherebugsgo isn't generally this lazy as town either, so we've got a wherebugsgo who is going against his town and his scum meta. Meta isn't something that can be used against wherebugsgo in my opinion, so I'm just going to read his filter and see if it's scummy or townie and I think that he looks like he doesn't care about this game at all and that's scummy. He's not the only one I'm looking at though if you're worried about that. @Toadesstern What do you think about it? You are acting as if my post had "Toadesstern" in place of all the "wherebugsgo"s. You are saying that you want more content and that the thread is in a bad state, and then you say that you're not going to do anything until everybody has been in here and told you their vote. That's pretty self contradictory behavior. Give me something. _____________________________ Finally, What do you make of kurumi's case on Radfield? | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 03:50 prplhz wrote: @talismania Your first example says "a bunch of Radfield posts about roleblocker" and those were what was convincing. Radfield clearly put a lot more work into thinking about the setup and making his thoughts clear than the framer supporters. I think that day0 was horrible because scum looks to be in a position where they can screw with town and we can't know what they actually picked. I have no idea about your guys who picked framer, not because you picked framer because it's debatable whether or not roleblocker is actually the best role. The role itself is hard to use (but so is roleblocker) but fact is that scum can use it to spread confusion by arguing against any checks. Checks aren't very strong in the first place and now they're going to get even worse. Anyway, the worst thing is that in the position we're in now it looks like scum can screw with town even more, because we don't know what role they got and then they can just argue that they have roleblocker if that fits their agenda and that they have framer if that fits their agenda. This game is open setup for scum right now and semi-closed for town and I think that's a huge blunder by town. The most important thing we had to do day1 was agree and I seriously expected anybody who disagreed with roleblocker to make convincing arguments for framer but all I ever saw was "it's hard to use" and some poorly thought through "it will mess with claims" (I'm guilty of that myself) and both of those arguments were addressed. Your second example, Radfield didn't convince me of anything. I have played with scum wherebugsgo and I know that he's usually a lot more active and he likes to have a lot of thread presence. Like I wrote in my reply, I chose to ignore that kind of meta because it's very useless with wherebugsgo. He's a strong and active scum player and he's a strong and active town player. Now he's not active. That's scummy. Kurumi's case on Radfield didn't convince me. It was based on Radfield promising that he would explain something sufficiently in the beginning of day1, and then Kurumi called him scum because he didn't explain it right now. Kurumi felt that pushing roleblocker was a scummy agenda and that Radfield was making promisses he couldn't keep just to further this and I think that idea is far fetched. Additionally, Radfield did explain and I think it looks legit. Actually I missed where you said he was scummy again in your reply to radfield when I read your post the first time - fair point. Before it seemed strange to me that it happened twice like perhaps you were trying to blend in and whatnot. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
I'm assuming it was after the deadline but if it was real time then I guess my encryption thing was pretty pointless. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 04:53 Kurumi wrote: No. I am saying that Framer is crap and he won't frame the check most of the times anyway and that we need to QUESTION ALL CHECKS EVEN WITHOUT MILLERS,FRAMERS,GODFATHERS AND OTHER THINGS. Second, it is not that hard if You actually try to hunt for blues, you know? You just need to actively do it. Besides, THINK. Radfield says that picking Roleblocker gives us chance to get a Medic. True. With GF/Framer the best picks are like Cop/Vig/Tracker, because they are bad/countered well. Buuuuuuuuut, then read what Radfield says later. He states that Medic is THE BEST role for Town. Then, why would Mafia pick Medic IN ANY CASE? Kurumi this is part of the reason I didn't buy into your argument that framer is the weakest for mafia under roleblocker. Let's say mafia has roleblocker and town knows it, and gave town a cop. Someone day 3 (so, 8 people left) says "I am the one-shot cop, I investigated X and X is town". No one counterclaims. (If anyone does then it's a 1 for 1 trade which is fine). Is there any reason to then question that check? The same scenario can be drawn up for tracker, which would only be different in that there would be more info but it would be less indicative of alignment (not of the tracker but of those he checked). This thinking is why I voted roleblocker, and why I'm surprised so many people went with framer (unless all the framer votes are mafia fakes). | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 05:11 Radfield wrote: No, mafia know what roles are in the game, and presumably can fake claim a role which does not exist(therefore not getting counter-claimed). However, once a single blue role flips, our second REAL blue role will counter claim the cop, so the mafia will get busted eventually, just not right away. I just realized that as well and was about to ebwop myself. Regardless I doubt there would be a fake claim for those reasons exactly except for maybe late in the game when it was close to mylo/lylo and scum were going for some sort of weird way to guarantee they make it there. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
(1) Kurumi - Radfield (2) HiroPro Both strike me as somewhat of red herrings, 1 more so than 2. I lean town on both Kurumi and Radfield. Kurumi because of how unnecessarily out-of-nowhere his case against Radfield comes, and how early. He obviously plays by a different playbook than most but that seems really uncautious of a scum move. Radfield I've never played with before but he seemed to be slipping into a town leader role like I saw in I'm a Cop You Idiot. I am surprised I haven't seen a case from him yet though. HiroPro's GF vote seems too good to be true. Now that we have Navillus's vote it seems like he actually was the only one to vote GF. Either the scum team really did 1-1-1, or he really was ignorant to the framer-roleblocker debate. And if the scum team did 1-1-1 then the other scum must have been similarly oblivious and that seems unlikely. If both truly are red herrings, they're likely good things for scum to try and latch onto and drive momentum towards. With that in mind, consider zepphird: First he kind of fishes around on Radfield: On May 31 2012 11:25 Zephirdd wrote: errr there is more to say, actually. First, The key is "zephirdd" and when using it to decrypt, the phrase is "I picked Framer for the mafia". Kurumi's reasonings convinced me much more than Radfield's. Also, I don't like that Radfield was initially against registering votes pre-deadline. The Rad I know doesn't just "skim" by what people say. Still, his town meta is "too town to be town", and here is just... normal town. Or rather, near null. That makes him red in my eyes. Discuss. Then he drives the HiroPro story a bit: On June 01 2012 03:45 Zephirdd wrote: Hiro, why would you pick Godfather, aka the NULL vote? On June 01 2012 03:59 Zephirdd wrote: Great, and why didn't you provide these arguments during the day we had to actually choose GF? Why did you just let the framers/roleblockers go and not fight for your argument? Why keep it down and suddenly pop out with this? Then, after no one else is jumping on Radfield, he jumps off and hints at looking at Kurumi (who made the Radfield case): On June 01 2012 10:36 Zephirdd wrote: Hm, looking at Holy Roman, Kurumi seems to be much more careful on this game(ie. serious). Like wbg said, (if we take Holy Roman as Kurumi's town meta) his town meta is to troll. Anyone has more town games from Kurumi to analyze, and possibly scum games as well? I also retract any "accusation" I may have had about Radfield. He seems clean enough for me atm. Why are you guys not posting more? I hate lynching lurkers. There's almost too much of it to be true but on first blow, to me, it is indicative of scum trying to get a feel for the way winds are blowing in the town, hence the FoS. | ||
talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 00:19 Toadesstern wrote: gosh On the hiro matter, because prphlz vote does matter: Hiro looks a lot better on the first look imo but here's the thing. Hiro answered us "Would I really claim I voted GF when I am mafia as the only one?" and that gave me a thought. Now this prphlz business is somewhat important here. On the first look it seems like hiro looks way better because prphlz frankly got in here telling us "sup guyses, haven't voted" which is equal to the 1-1-1 thing I mentioned earlier. So hiro looks better because prphlz looks equally bad and yet the same question comes up: Would Prphlz get in here like that as mafia? I doubt it but again, I already said after PYP I'm not going to use that logic anymore lol. But here's the important thing that made me reconsider the hiro part: He said something along the lines of "would I really claim GF as mafia?". Now here's the OP I HIGHLY doubt the voting result would be something like "sup guys, You've got RB" or "sup guys, you've got framer" because mafia could figure that out themselves just fine the moment one of them gets to be RB or framer so I'd say they get the real voting results. Let's assume prphlz is telling the truth for a second. If that's the case mafia knew there was one guy who has not voted because that's simple math. If that's the case it's perfectly reasonable to just claim GF because there's someone out there who's looking equally bad or even worse. Fancy conclusion: I'd say hiro knows exactly what he's doing and is hoping that the other guy looks worse or at least equally bad while still having the benefits of the 1-1-1 thing. Remember Hiro has not made it clear what he wanted to vote and while that may have benefits it makes the perfect excuse for this scenario we're in right now. I'd say we have found mafia in hiro. This hurts my head - first, Does mafia getting the voting results mean that they got the results of who everyone voted for? Just the totals? Just the winner? Second, if they did get full results, how could that have any bearing on hiro's play? He voted GF before the deadline no matter what, therefore he would have to explain it no matter what. How does he modify that knowing that prp didn't vote? I think there are less convoluted reasons to vote Hiro that people have already raised, if you're going to vote Hiro. (On a sidenote toad I think I owe you an apology because it looks like you were right about the difficulty in getting to a majority day one.) ___________________ @Radfield Of course I would also vote Zephirdd (and probably will unless we need a 6th/7th vote somewhere else - avoiding no lynch is the top priority) - it's not just that he's been vacillating, it's that it feels like he's been doing it to see if anyone he pushes will get momentum in the town. He's playing it pretty out in the open as well (owning up to it with his last "I change my mind too much" post) which is brazen but probably the correct play if he's scum. I'm curious about how you're thinking about the game as a whole - you've also been throwing some names out as though to see what sticks (sloosh, sbrubbles, zephirdd) but I haven't seen anything like the analysis you did to parse apart Blazinghand and tunkeg in I'm a cop you Idiot. For instance, is your consideration of voting zephirdd based on what hiro said, what I said, what you thought yourself, etc? | ||
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