EPTNewbie Mini XV
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Regarding today's lynch, my vote is on Vivax. Because we already have some robust cases and scumreads on him, I won't get too specific here, but I know that you haven't gotten much from Ange/me since pushing suki, so I at least want to show my reasoning. I feel like he's got a very good chance of flipping scum, but I'd like to hear some more from him. Parts of his filter do read town to me. ##Vote: Vivax Vivax As long as we're considering heist vs. vivax for a lynch today, "defending suki" isn't really helpful because we're looking at two players that did so. So here are some specifics.
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already. Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start. It's a real bad time for controversy. I found this reasoning odd. His focus on who has "contributed" more. Suki has posted, but not all that much, and Vivax, I'd like to know what you felt Suki had contributed. It's difficult for me to get a read on this because I actually saw the Suki lynch and flip before replacing in, so I was a little biased here. But rereading, I don't get the feeling that Suki contributed more than Ange, who had come back and, while having lurked for a bit, was actually moving discussion forward and contributing a solid read and case. On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively. If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that. I highlist this because again, it seems like Vivax is overly focused on earlier actions. Ange came back with hours to spare, as she mentioned she had plenty of time to post a case, argue back and forth, have other suspicions, etc. This wasn't a 5-minutes-to-deadline ninja return. Look at the last line in particular. Ange has returned, has made a case, has discussed. Yet Vivax is informing her that she's HAVING a bad impact on the game. Sure, she had a bad impact the first 24 hours, but since returning has actively had a good impact on the game. Times have changed. If you are anti-lurking, fine, dandy, but I find it suspicious to be anti-lurker AND state that someone is negatively impacting the game for NOT lurking. What is actually being negatively impacted here? The scum team. Further, although it's a little hyperbolic and so I'm not putting much weight on this, Vivax wants to lynch Ange for returning and becoming active.
This is sort of a null tell, but worth discussing. He initially thinks Heist is town - + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 20:20 Vivax wrote: Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum. On June 01 2012 08:16 Vivax wrote: With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one. On June 02 2012 07:40 Vivax wrote: Stop suspecting heist, he was the first to defend Ange777 against my accusations and kept that stance throughout this whole last phase. He would have wanted her to get lynched if he was mafia. But why does he change back to being suspicious of heist? Heist's bussing comment + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 19:48 Vivax wrote: 12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia. Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL. Throw the term bussing out and look at what happened from Vivax's end, he went from a town read to a scum read on heist, because heist didn't want Vivax to vote for someone that Vivax thought was town. How is that a legitimate reason to find someone scummy?
His fixation on Eishi_Ki never felt solid, and I read Eishi pretty towny. The fact that he tunneled Eishi long after it was clear that Eishi wasn't going to be a lynch target tells me that either: (a) Vivax is mafia and posts on Eishi help it look like he's contributing and help boost his filter; or (b) both town. Really heavy tunneling 1 on 1s seem to be the latter, so that's actually more on the townie side in my mind. That's hastily constructed, but hopefully outlines my general thoughts on Vivax. It doesn't cover everything, and I know I haven't touched on heist or other topics. Never replaced in and it's odd to get started midway through. I've got to actually do some work at work and need to be active in my other game, but I should be around and post some more throughout the day. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On June 05 2012 01:27 Vivax wrote: Regarding suki: How is the reasoning odd? Suki posted more, that's all. What made me so suspicious about Ange777 is her timing when she posted something substantial for the first time. Read on. That's all I wanted to know. The reason it's odd is that by the time you posted that statement, Ange had been so active after returning that, in terms of pure filter length (a bad proxy for contribution, I'll admit), Ange had contributed more. Being concerned with the timing is fine, and perfectly reasonable - heck, Ange even admits that the timing is bad for her. But I find the idea that Suki had contributed more odd, as Ange produced more in a few hours than Suki had all cycle. Ange: Look at Ange's posts before her comeback, she even announced she would contribute and didn't do so until there was a real danger of being lynched cause town was about to lynch the most lurking person in that game. Here she suddenly appeared, saying that we might hit blue as only inital defense, and apologized for the absence saying what kept her busy. ... She admitted having a bad impact on that game with the sudden return reading scum to me. Town was about to set the vote, and I didn't want to vote for someone I didn't believe to be mafia unless it was the only possible way to get a Day 1 lynch, which I announced from the beginning. Again, it sort of comes down to whether you were tunneling or are mafia. I tunneled super hard in a past game as town, pushed lynches on nothing but townies, so I know it can happen. But the way that the Suki push and Ange's return happened, both are valid ways to read your actions. Yes, Ange could have been coming bad to save her ass. But she also made posts saying she was lurking, was going to have to lurk a little longer, and then when she returned brought some analysis and actively had a good impact. Even if Suki had flipped town, Ange DID come back and have some sort of good impact, because it got a lot of discussion going. So I just don't like the way you hung on to Ange having a "bad impact," where she meant she had negatively impact town in the past, and you were unwilling to see that she was no longer doing so. Then heist: Wtf, you mention what you believe without even saying what should be wrong about that scumslip, he says he doesn't believe suki to be mafia and 12 minutes later he contradicts himself by saying it looks like I'm bussing. Also, bad redefinition, my entire response was: 'Your word choice is strange cause it contradicts your official beliefs'. Also, you completely ignore the time of the post, i posted that before s0lstice died, but you say I use that to push after s0lstice's death. I'll address this below I understand you don't have a good overview of my actions cause you just joined the game, but you should really read everything if you plan on going for such accusations of single players. You will find all kind of suspicious things about other players if you go with the premise that they are guilty and look close enough. I don't have the best overview, no. However, I have read the whole game through twice, and I've been poking through filters as well. Heck, the player I'm replacing found you scummy. So it's not purely a replacement thing. Eishi_Ki: Contributing and boost my filter? You realize I was the first to push the case and barely anyone believed Eishi to be scum? How exactly should that help me as mafia? Taking a hard stance?Going against the grain? None of these helps mafia. Eishi joined in against me after two posts from heist and O.Golden, accusing me for townreading sciberbia too early. That bit's just a thought I had. The way in which you tunneled him, then swapped to tunneling Ange, just feels a little off. Don't entirely know what to do with it, but you got a lot of mileage out of posting about him and then promptly decided he was town. Now that you know that sciberbia is town with very high probability, why should I defend him as mafia? Townreading him actually was against the mafia's interest, as you see with suki's next post doubting my read. Then heist and O.Golden attacked me. I don't read much at all into the first few moments of the game. He pushed a no-lynch, because he found it mathematically superior. If mafia chose to jump all over that statement and push it for all of D1 as a reason to lynch, they would have looked ridiculous. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I absolutely agree with the portion of solstice's case concerning his vote. The move to Suki late isn't as odd to me as the move to unforgiven in between, because with the candidates being ange, suki, unforgiven, and ange looking better and better, unforgiven WOULD be the way to go. Beyond the way his vote moved, I'm not finding him particularly scummy. Still leaning Vivax. To the extent that we're discussing this post: On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. I have no idea how this is a scumslip, or scummy at all. The contradiction that some folks are seeing is that if he thinks Suki is town, then bussing is the wrong word, because you can't bus a townie. But that doesn't matter at all. That's not a scumslip. That's him misusing a term. He's NOT misusing that term though if he's saying what he seems to be saying. That it is a bad idea to vote for someone you think is town. If making a comment about X bussing Y when you think Y is town is a scumslip, then what should we make of actively placing your vote on Y when you think Y is town? If you read it this way, it makes sense and it looks plenty townie. He's calling Vivax out on voting a townread, and then giving a possible explanation for Vivax's behavior. In all honesty, while some may find the last sentence of his post scummy, I'm more inclined to focus on the first couple sentences, where he's reprimanding Vivax for voting a townread. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On June 03 2012 16:03 sciberbia wrote: Does anyone actually think heist is townie? I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie? Wanted to respond to this, since I've been calling out Vivax and wanted to make sure I looked equally hard at heist. Will try not to rehash too much of what others have posted, as I feel my posts have been too long and I'm hoping shorter posts = more people reading = some discussion before the deadline. I know I got moving late in the day, but it's been dead. On June 01 2012 08:46 heist wrote: Townies not being sure of each other Day 1 is natural. There is almost no information to go. You, on the other hand, are almost completely convinced of Sciberbia's alignment almost from the first minute of this game. Again, this lynch is not a matter of probability. Our goal isn't to eliminate suspects by placing them in pro-town status and "shooting blindly" into the rest. Our goal is to actively find suspicious, scummy people. I think this is crucial. Do not try to find townies, try to find mafia. Townies not being sure of each is much better than blindly following one player, being so seduced that you will automatically disregard everyone who attempts to argue with you or that person. This portion of one of heist's posts bugs me. He makes a decent point about not blindly sheeping other townies, but that's a separate matter altogether from telling everyone not to try and find townies. I get mixed messages from this post, the don't sheep is pro-town, but not trying to find townies is a bad idea imo. His voting has been covered, and doesn't look good. He admits finding both Ange and Suki town, admits voting for town, doesn't really try and sugarcoat it. Which I like, but it doesn't change the voting pattern. Frankly, with a close look, he doesn't look all that great. The solstice NK doesn't do anything for me but WIFOM - either solstice is dangerous for good posting and finding heist scummy, or he's a kill to get a mislynch from town onto heist. But heist ain't rosy. ShiaoPi, I tunneled hard our last game together and it bit me in the ass. I still think Vivax is scummy, but heist can be read pretty scummy as well. Could you take a step back for a second and give me 1-2 things about Vivax that make him look townie, and 1-2 things about heist that make him look scummy? Vivax, I'm not convinced golden/ShiaoPi is scummy. Lurking as a mafia tactic, fine. Lurking your way to a replacement/modkill, not so fine. And I've generally agreed with most of what ShiaoPi's had to say. So, hypothetically, if heist is scum but ShiaoPi isn't, who would be your read for the last scum? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On June 05 2012 04:42 austinmcc wrote: Vivax, I'm not convinced golden/ShiaoPi is scummy. Lurking as a mafia tactic, fine. Lurking your way to a replacement/modkill, not so fine. And I've generally agreed with most of what ShiaoPi's had to say. So, hypothetically, if heist is scum but ShiaoPi isn't, who would be your read for the last scum? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On June 05 2012 07:15 Unforgiven_ve wrote: i really dont know how some of you cannot see, interpret and smell the Innocence from posts of some players What in particular made you sure of his innocence? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On June 05 2012 07:33 austinmcc wrote: What in particular made you sure of his innocence? On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: What in particular. What portions of what posts, specifically? To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern. Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On June 02 2012 09:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote: One of them is mafia...why?danm, i just noticed, the las post i made from my phone didnt got here. My main suspect, is a tie: Heis / Xatalos One of them is mafia, i dont think both are scum because his way of play would just be ridiculous, being overagressive since the begging + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 09:56 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Im sure im gonna die tonight (Xalatos, that means GAME's night ;D sorry), Possible escenarios for me suki mafia, xalatos town: suki just used my "town leader" missunderstanding to try and push a mislynch on anyone Xalatos had on sight, he wanted to get a bandwagon rolling as long it werent on any of his friends, the other two mafias waited to see if this worked to jump at last hour. suki mafia, Xalatos mafia: They accorded in their QT they would try to take "town leadership" to their own, Xalatos states a case, suki pushed it, some other couple townies fall for this, and the 3rd mafia joins to guarantee a mayority Because my post are a bit(lot?) confusing to townies, they want to use this to gain some advantage, leaving me alive and triying to get Ange777 instead. suki mafia, heist town: heist missread everything i posted and just falls for the starting random post against me, he even dedicates a lines to me + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: @Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this. suki mafia, heist mafia this is where it gets interesting, His first post a some random tips to me, attacks some random townies, wants to look "neutral" when my case was starting to get some heat, when things seemed to reach a finishing point, he drops this pearl + Show Spoiler + You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims. You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis. You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What??? You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself. I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam. My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment. ##Unvote ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve You know, just cassually voting to the main (innocent) target at the time...and then one hour before deadline, he cast his vote against suki, because you know, he said MANY TIMES lynching is preferably to nothing and he had to stand by his word ... im already seeing the mafia QT "HEY SUKI IM SORRY, WE NEED TO WINZ LOLZ" That makes him slightly higher on my list. FoS (and pretty sure vote, at least something really weird happens or if im alive at day 2) heist As always, if you dont understand something and/or want to ask something, please do. i'll be checking from my phone tonight Brings up heist's vote, but nothing else specific. He even notes that heists's voteswap was in line with what he said he'd do. On June 05 2012 06:28 Unforgiven_ve wrote: doesn't believe Vivax is scum, no reasoning.wtf whit the replacements, it makes it harder to try and read someone after 2 days of play :s Also, vivax, what about this? + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority. I dont belive vivax is scum, nevertheless i will change my vote if neccesary, i think we still need 2 votes for a lynch? On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: There's some reasoning here, finally, but I'd like to see it expanded. Still doesn't explain why he thinks Vivax is town. Gives reasons for suspecting heist, but they feel a little flimsy. "the way he started to play," It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts and screams mafia for me. how he acted around the suki lynch." On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Again, reasons but vague. His posts are towny. His attitude and defense of suki. To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern. Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos Not calling him scum yet, but look at his filter. He's very convinced in his reads and his own towniness, but he doesn't really back up the reads with quotes, sound reasoning. At the very least, I want specific reasoning to be able to hold him to. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Heist I came into today thinking I'd be voting heist, like right off the bat. Heist or vivax scum, vivax not, heist is, done. But I looked over the thread and I looked over filters today and I'm feeling less confident about that. Bits that I think make him look townie: On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: This post felt incredibly patronizing. It seemed a little disconnected from the game, like heist walked unforgiven outside the game, sat him down, gave him a talking to, and then they both came back in. Did this post strike anyone else as odd? I thought it kind of called attention to heist, but if nobody else thought this looked strange then perhaps not.@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this. On June 02 2012 02:00 heist wrote: When you guys had two lurkers, ange and superouman, heist was the player most interested in superouman. I don't read this as scummy. If you've got two lurkers, and everyone wants to jump on one, why keep bringing up the other? Yes, ange returned and stopped lurking, but there was no way to know that. I just don't see the reason for scum heist to poke around about superouman instead of pushing ange.It just concerned me that with ALL this talk about lurking almost no one even mentions Superouman. I definitely do favor a lynch. So if it comes down to it I will change my vote to enforce a lynch, but I'd like to give Ange77 some time to defend himself. On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote: I don't know how suki and ange fit together in Unforgiven's mind, but heist called him out on this. If I'm mafia here, don't I want to encourage this? Either suki gets lynched and then I can push ange, or at some point ange gets lynched (and flips green) and now I've set suki up to look more green. The counterargument here is that ange and suki being teammates is so nonsensical to me that I don't think a mafia member could actually run with and push that idea.You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What??? Unforgiven Except for suki's early vote, unforgiven is still looking scummy. He keeps throwing out entirely unsubstantiated statements, and is really, really pushing the idea that he was right. He responds to requests to actually explain himself with: On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Which I really don't like. And the more I read his filter, the more I dislike it. I find the constant reinforcement of the suki lynch to be especially troubling -- + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think? On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs On June 02 2012 09:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: may i remind you, pleading for votes to get a mafia(roleblocker) at D1, read my last post, and make a better one please, it worked one time, why not twice ;D Going to read some other filters and read this Xatalos case. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Every time I read this game. And I mean Every. Single. Time. I find Unforgiven scummy. - He posts nothing but policy talk and babble for the first half of D1 - He writes his bit on Suki. Which is this - + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: suki: his first post is about the NL d1 theme, and asking Miltonkram about his fst vote. His 3rd post is some semi-analysis about the people the town is talking about and to close his post he throws a vote against me, before make it clear "it may change"...then a couple more post naming Cattivik, Superouman and me. That's it...he nevers really pressure someone, playing it really safe, his filter is short, he's just taunting Cattivik in hopes of preparing a Day 2 candidate. For now on: ##Vote suki but it may change uh?! - He proceeds to play incredibly scummy
- Cautions D1 about how mafia will lurk and then come back for the final hours of the day. What does he do D2? Lurks, then comes back in the final minutes to post this: On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho. Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused. You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit. Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts and screams mafia for me.
-Constantly, at the end of a bunch of his posts, asks for people to ask him anything if they don't understand something.+ Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I can get online form my phone, if anyone wants to ask something please make a precise question and i'll try to answer it. On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: As always, if anyone has any question please ask On June 02 2012 05:33 Unforgiven_ve wrote: never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny?? Really? in every post i say if you have questions just ask! On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious Apart from his Suki "case" and vote, I don't see anything pro-town coming from him. Moreover, I see him harping on the single pro-town thing he's done at every corner. I cannot rationalize how this is town play. I will be voting Unforgiven. Does anyone think he's down anything pro-town apart from poorly push Suki at the start? ##Vote: Unforgiven | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I get that his play is erratic, but here's what keeps tripping me up. It's all over the place except helpful. Think...ohh...Anacletus? From our other newbie game. Really erratic posting. Yet it was a mix of scummy stuff and townie stuff constantly. Making ridiculous cases on people, being defensive, getting pissed off at being ignored, etc. (I know you got shot early but I think you read that one out iirc from obsQT). I don't get that from Unforgiven. I don't ever see him flailing around on the townie side of things after that suki case which didn't even seem like a case. Gotta think on the roleblocker bit, and WILL be reading over you and Xatalos, and some other stuff. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I found his voting scummy. However, I found it odd because he swapped to Unforgiven and that seemed like a play to have a non-Suki candidate in the mix now that Ange was back and did not seem like a legitimate target. However, given that I now feel like I do about Unforgiven, and given that Ange found him scummy while pushing suki (I feel like as her replacement I should try and put myself in her shoes for D1), I'm willing to believe that town could find both suki and unforgiven scummy. Ange happened to find suki scummier at first, voted her, FoSed unforgiven. Heist happened to find Unforgiven scummier early, voted him, then later suki. I don't find that bussing comment scummy, as I've said. Therefore, I don't want to vote heist today (However, I'd like for him to, you know, contribute here). However, I sought some non-tunneling coaching, and after considering that, I need to consider a heist lynch. Can you guys give me like...your number 1 reason besides the voting pattern and the bussing comment that you find Heist scummy? On golden/ShiaoPi Starting with Xatalos's initial post - + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: ShiaoPi Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia: - Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens. On June 06 2012 06:59 sciberbia wrote: I think it's likely I die tonight, so here are my (possible) last words + Show Spoiler + I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia. Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him: - golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good. - golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town - golden's defense of suki was really scummy - shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia - shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki. Golden's posts: Sorry Shiao, you're stuck with them. You/Golden are the same alignment, Ange/I am the same alignment. You got dealt the crappier hand there. Golden DID lightly defend suki early on. However, when I look at the timing, he did so before the convincing cases had been made. I'm going to give him a little credit for that, because he didn't defend suki after suki was really taking a pounding. ShiaoPi's vote on Vivax: I did the same thing, but didn't publicize it. Heck, I did the same thing in my last newbie game every time I pushed someone that ended up town. Sinking feeling 5-10 minutes before lynch, but telling yourself there's no time to do anything, and if you were sure yesterday, and sure that morning, shouldn't you just listen to past self? At the very least, I don't get anything from this. YES, Shiao could be mafia trying to get cred. OR, Shiao is town and had doubts. Either is plausible. Suspecting Eishi_Ki - Suki soft defended Eishi_Ki like crazy earlier. One of the more surprising things I found while rereading. Like...3 times or so? Frankly, Eishi_Ki hasn't done much. If his filter was full, Suki's posts wouldn't stand out like they do. With so little to work with on Eishi_Ki, I agree with Shiao that the Suki posts make him look bad. So, I'm not finding Shiao scummy off of that. Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy. sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now. Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Also, unforgiven, you are right and I am wrong. Our last newbie game was plurality. We were NOT extended majority and I'm imagining things. Right now, and maybe it's a bad reason, but the voting itself makes me not like the heist vote. IF both mafia members have voted, that means (because i know I'm town, therefore 2 of the other 4 votes in the game are mafia, yada yada) that there is mafia on heist. If one or both mafia are heist/eishi, then that doesn't hold true. With extended majority and two players not voting/posting yet, can we ask how the lynch/majority/modkills will work? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Out of the Xatalos/Shiao cases, I like the case on Xatalos better. Sorry man, you don't look good. Leaving work now. Right now I am very, very worried about heist and eishi_ki. I don't like early suki/eishi_ki bits. Others think heist is scummy. The door is so wide open for mafia to come in at the last moment and push a townie over the edge, even if just one lurker is mafia. There are so many situations where IF we mislynch, we lose, because 1-2 players could get modkilled. In light of that, right now I am leaning towards no-lynching. Yes, it's normally suboptimal, but if: (1) one/neither of our no-shows is mafia, (2) anyone other than a mafia member has 2 votes, then (3) it could be game over. Mafia both drop the hammer on the 2-vote player, he has 4, lynched. One or both no-shows get modkilled, maybe. Then the NK. Poof. 2/2 or 1/2, we lose. If we no lynch and both lurkers are townies, we could still lose. Both could be modkilled, then NK, now it's 2/2, This is awful. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
If both heist/eishi are town, we lose. If ONE is town, we either lynch scum, mislynch and lose, or no lynch. It would take every single town vote on the non-lurking scum in order to lynch. Shiao doesn't think heist is scum. I still don't think heist is scum (Again, I need something beyond the vote and the bussing comment). So if one of the lurkers is mafia, either one of us gets convinced at the 11th hour or else we have to lynch someone other than heist. If NEITHER is town, then we win if they both stay inactive. That's why I want to no lynch right now. IF both are inactive, then the only situation in which we should lynch is if we are absolutely sure about who the non-lurking mafia is. So you need to convince shiao or i. Otherwise, it would have to be non-heist. OR we can no-lynch, because then we lose 1 mafia/1 town to inactivity and 1 to NK. We're then 3/1 tomorrow and can pull it off. Unless we're 10000000% sure who the mafia are, a no lynch is the best option IF we don't get activity. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (gotta walk dogs, back in 15-20). We cannot win if both lurkers town. We can only win if both lurkers mafia. We can win with a correct lynch OR a no lynch is it's 1/1. I would rather have the extra day to be more sure. Things that mess up that analysis - if we're in the medic/cop version. In which case ...I dunno. The optimal play would be something like cop claiming, medic not claiming, and hoping a medic save could get us another day in some cases? Or if either one returns/doesn't get modkilled. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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