Newbie Mini Mafia XIII

On May 10 2012 08:36 FirmTofu wrote:
Hi again dahdum! I hope you aren't mafia again ><

I'm all for lynching a lurker, but we should definitely wait a bit for everyone to have a chance to post.

On May 10 2012 23:26 Anacletus wrote:
I am only voting because I don't have much to add. I would also like to point out that *if* we hang tofu for his suspicious behavior and he is mafia then we can rule out those voting as being mafia, no?

But if he's town, shit.

On May 10 2012 23:41 Anacletus wrote:


It was for a misspell.

I don't understand what your line about FirmTofu is saying, it makes no sense.

I doubt that the mafia would try to be hyper-aggressive day 1. I think that the people who aren't voting are suspicious. I think it makes more sense for the mafia to try and be passive in voting yet vocal in chat to try and rule who otherw vote for and keep their hands clean.

On May 11 2012 00:09 Anacletus wrote:


I've played mafia before. That being said nothing that I say is guaranteed so playing one playstyle will probably let them metagame us. I was only throwing out my 2 cents. Also, maybe I'm metagaming knowing mafia will read this.

The hole goes deeper.

On May 11 2012 09:22 Anacletus wrote:


I don't have any information. So no benefits and no doubts shall be given then I assume?

My personal feelings as of right now is that BioSC is mafia. He's been super passive while we've been at each others throats and has been trying to redirect attention off of himself.

On May 12 2012 01:01 Anacletus wrote:
Yeah, it's just bad town play. I really hope you guys don't lynch me and let the cop check me or something.

In the beginning I was just being reckless to start up the conversations. I've said it multiple times, but I'll say it again, I have no interest in hanging anyone yet as everything is just inconclusive guesses.

On May 11 2012 22:38 austinmcc wrote:
My thoughts on Anacletus:

His play does not feel like good townie play. I brought that up earlier, we've all discussed it by now, and I think we all seem to come to the same conclusion. While I would support a lynch of Anacletus, I think we have better targets. I'll look through his responses more today, but for now I would prefer to look elsewhere, and see how Anacletus continues to play. Right now, "not good townie play" is my read, but I'm not convinced that his play is scummy and not just bad townie play.

However, we've got a quarter of D1 left, and I want to throw this case out and push it a little, see what comes of it. My top scum read: BroodKingEXE.

BroodKingEXE filter - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&user=233869

Skip 2/3 of the first page. It's pregame. He's active, vocal, chatting a lot with everyone in the pregame. Doesn't really mean anything.

First posts:
+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

These aren't entirely incompatible. Lynching lurkers bad, pressuring them good, let people post before we jump to conclusions. That seems townie, fine and dandy, but then he fires off the very first vote of the game on FirmTofu.

Why? Because FirmTofu posted + Show Spoiler +

Look at the bolded part of Broodking's first post. Now back to me. Now back to the bolded part of FirmTofu's post. Now back to me. Anything? That's the same exact thought process. And yet when FirmTofu vocalizes that, Broodking fires off the first vote of the game. I still don't agree with that vote at all, even if it was just to "pressure" someone, because there's absolutely no grounds for voting someone because they express a thought you just expressed slightly earlier.

From then on out, it's a series of one-liner and response posts, but never really DOING anything. Last night (eastern time), BroodKing had one of the longest filters, and yet the only substantive post was him voting FirmTofu off the bat.

For example:

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

After that, he starts giving responses to other people, specifically ShiaoPi's reads, but doesn't really add anything of substance. scummy

+ Show Spoiler +

Note that at this point, ShiaoPi has just thrown out the first real list of reads we had from anyone. BroodKing posts a couple times concerning the list, but doesn't really add anything. While he gets information out of ShiaoPi, he doesn't really provide any himself. At no point in those posts does he agree with a read or disagree with a read, rather, he simply acknowledges that reads were made and ShiaoPi voted. This is also the first point we begin to move AWAY from the Anacletus discussion (which has run its course at this point), and BroodKing continues to ask for information based on ShiaoPi's vote for Anacletus.

Finally, compare his filter from this game with his filter from Newbie VIII, where he was town.
+ Show Spoiler +
There are some posts in a similar style to his posts here, but a LOT of @x and @y, what do you guys think about z. Lots of longer discussions, paragraphs, lists. SOME of that is because he was the lynch target D1 and so had to be active and defend himself. But his townie posts from VIII feel more robust and they contribute, whereas his posts so far in XIII do not.

-------------------------------

Anacletus's play still feels more bad than scummy. I would like to let him live for now, and see if he starts to really contribute. Right now he has 0 town cred, so if he's mafia he can't actively muck up town discussion. If we back off the pressure, MAYBE he mounts a decent defense and provides some good reads, because...he's got to do that to get any cred back. If not? We lynch him later, or we see if we can get any information N1 from blue roles that push us forward.

Compared to Anacletus though, BroodKingEXE looks actively scummy. So far he hasn't contributed anything of note except the first vote of the game, which made little sense. He's supports getting responses before voting, but then votes without a response from FirmTofu. He wants scumhunting and reasoning, but has provided none. Again, I'm not opposed to an Anacletus lynch, but I would prefer to lynch the player that seems scummiest, which is BroodKing.

##Vote BroodKingEXE
##FOS: Anacletus

Dahdum, I'm especially interested in hearing your thoughts on this, as you read BroodKing to be scummy as well. I didn't really notice him until I looked through all the filters last night and realized he was my best scumread. Do you agree with my reasoning? Did you have different reasoning?

On May 12 2012 06:18 Mufaa wrote:
Like I've been saying since my first post, I think Ana is bad town more than mafia. Every scummy thing he has done has been so scummy that if he was Mafia his partners would be berating him so bad he probably would have stopped posting instead of digging himself into this giant hole he's made.

Austin's point about how even if Ana is scum he's lost so much credibility he can't make a push on someone d2. If he doesn't improve his play we might have to take him out later, but right now if we lynch him we won't gain any real info. Everyone has been on to him at some point, so if he flips town we gain almost nothing from this since his posts lack any content. If he flips scum the scum would lose a player, but that honestly might help them if he really is scum and is playing like this.

If we lynch someone else and they flip town, we can see who has been focused on them, who stayed out of the discussion on that person and we at least have some good info to discuss over d2. The odds are just as good of anyone else flipping scum, so I would rather flip someone who would give us info instead of giving scum the option to hide behind the excuse that Ana was such a bad townie, how could everyone not vote for him.

I think BroodKingEXE needs to post some content instead of one liners and just agreeing with people as it comes off scummy, but he isn't my first choice at the moment.

Jailbreaker- Why haven't you posted in the last 3 and a half pages? You commented early on about how much aggression there was but you haven't made a single case, even hinted at having a read, or contributed to the town in any way. Why are you so content to just sit back and watch everyone else debate with the deadline so close?

##Vote Jailbreaker

This isn't a permanent vote. I think Jailbreaker is the best lynch so far. If no one else feels this way, I will swing my vote to BroodKingEXE to get some info from the lynch as I do think his actual content will give us something to compare to everyone else d2 once we see his flip.

On May 12 2012 07:19 Mufaa wrote:


Let me clarify my vote. I wasn't making a concerted push on Jailbreaker. I was hoping others would follow suit to put some pressure on him and force some content before the deadline. 45 til the deadline and only 3 real posts w/ no vote means he's probably gonna get modkilled or warned so it won't matter either way. Still I don't like the idea of letting someone lurk the entire day.

Since Jailbreaker seems out that really only leaves a choice between bkexe and Ana. I don't think ana's flip will tell us anything other than his alignment so I'm going to vote bkexe just to not waste d1.

##Vote BroodKingEXE

On May 12 2012 12:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get
The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think?

On May 16 2012 03:42 austinmcc wrote:
Some quick reads:
-snipped-
Crossfire - + Show Spoiler +

Bio and Anac are going to take me a little more work, but I wanted to go ahead and post this. I guess right now I'm looking at a scumteam of Dahdum/Crossfire/+1, which might come out of Bio or Anac. I need to look more at BioSC and Dahdum's little spat with each other, perhaps they're both intentionally making weak cases on the other to fill the thread, and if one got lynched the other could try to turn that into some town cred. Will read over Anac, I'm not as confident in my newbie town read as I was D1, but I want to find some actual reasons why and look harder.

What's your thought on night posts in general? Should people freely talk during the night? Should they come up with a big post and post in the last few minutes before the day?

On May 11 2012 00:23 Crossfire99 wrote:
I don't understand why everyone is not liking Firmtofu's first post + Show Spoiler +.He posted less than an hour into the day and he makes a reference to a previous game. I don't know what happened in the previous game, but it seems like dahdum was mafia and Firmtofu wasn't and that the town lost (I infer this from his little >< face). It seems like he is complimenting dahdum's play and hopes they are on the same side. What's bad about that?

As for his lynching lurkers stance, he was like one of the first posts, so no one really posted and it seems he was stating that we should wait to judge people until they posted. If people still lurked after a while then he seems to support lynching the lurkers. This isn't a terrible stance if I am interpreting him correctly, so I want clarification from him on this, though.

As for me, I am only in favor of lynching lurkers as an absolute last resort. I feel we need to do our best scumhunting and if we do a good job, we can lynch a scum.

Right now I am suspicious of Anacletus. He comes in and votes for Firmtofu as his first post with no explanation, but then gives this terrible reason for voting in his next post + Show Spoiler + He basically says he is just bandwagoning and not thinking for himself and this is just terrible. He then questions why Hyaach voted for him and defends himself with this + Show Spoiler +. He goes on theorizing about how mafia would play day 1. How do you know that they want to play like? Honestly I think people who are vocal in the thread, but don't through their vote around willy-nilly and don't just follow whatever the current train is in the thread are smart. It's the poeple who vote without any good reason who are suspicious to me.

What say you Anacletus?

On May 12 2012 05:03 Crossfire99 wrote:
Sorry for being so inactive, I’ve been very busy today. I haven’t been able to keep up with the thread very much, so I’ll focus on two things. My current position on Anacletus and this newfound suspicion on BroodKingEXE

In relation to Anacletus:

So far he has said he has had no information + Show Spoiler +. Then he goes on to have a suspicion of BioSC + Show Spoiler + backed up with little evidence. He also calls dahdum a bit suspicious because he posted his reads on everyone. (Note: I sort of agree with him here. I don’t think it is necessarily scummy, but a list of your reads on someone is not as helpful as a case against a few people. These posts also allow an easy for scum to hide and seem like they are doing work. In the end this quote goes in his favor.) Lastly he defends himself by saying is just a bad townie and doesn’t have any reads on everyone, just guesses+ Show Spoiler +. This isn’t a good defense because we have to lynch someone day 1 and since we have to lynch someone, he should put in work looking for scum instead of whatever little effort he has been giving so far. Right now he is just making excuses for not scum hunting.
--------------------------------------
Now onto BroodKingEXE:

I will start with this quote from ausitnmcc. It is his case against Brood.
+ Show Spoiler +

I agree with some of what Austin has said because when I did my own read through of Brood’s filter, it is just a mess of garbage posts. He also hypocritically accuses Firmtofu and votes for him because Formtofu said to wait until everyone has posted before judging them evev though he said the same thing.

But, I will say that his redeeming quality is that he is pretty active and is suspicios of these giant “here are my reads for every person in the game” posts. I don’t like these posts that much because as he pointed out, they are an easy way for scum to hide and seem like they are doing work, but in reality they aren’t.

This means that he is less scummy in my eyes than Anacletus, but I am going to keep my eye on him in the future.

##Vote Anacletus

On May 12 2012 14:10 Crossfire99 wrote:
Ok I'm going to summarize what I feel happened at the end of the day just to put everything into context. Anacletus has been playing scummy all game, then when everyone starts voting for him he starts flailing around and his posting can be seen to improve a little (I am still suspicious of him and expect him to step up his game to prove he isn't mafia in order to survive a day 2 lynch.) During this time austin puts together a case on Brood which many find convincing (It also caused me to put Brood on my radar). He adds to it and more join and switch votes. Brood defends himself terribly and dies for it. He turns out to be a 1 shot cop.

On May 12 2012 14:10 Crossfire99 wrote:
Now going through the filters nothing really stuck out to me until I ran across these two posts by Mufaa.
+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler +

All he talks about is lynching for information. He doesn't think anac is scum. It also seems that he doesn't think that Brood is scum either. He says explicitly that an anac lynch won't give information but that a Brood lynch will. Now this is the part where it gets weird. At this point in time the vote count was 7-4 in favor of brood with him and Jail yet to vote. Worse case scenario for mufaa would be that jail voted for anac therefore making the voting 7-5. This means that mufaa was the only one left who hadn't voted. to make matters worse 5 people had just switched from anac to brood. They weren't going to switch back. Austin led the case and he wasn't moving. unforgiven switched from himself to brood after reading the cases against brood and his terrible defense. This basically meant that 7 votes on brood were guaranteed and he was going to die (a last minute cop claim might have changed this but I'm not sure because brood probably screwed himself over too much for it to be taken seriously). This meant mufaa ended up putting a meaningless vote on someone he thought was town. Why not push for someone else, someone who you thought was mafia?

On May 14 2012 07:40 Anacletus wrote:
Okay - so just to finalize my defense I'll be referencing this document austinmcc was awesome enough to post: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnX9O6cujxVmdFlvZkdqR1g0Qlh3d2dSaENrdW9DblE#gid=0

Noticing the initial votes there are 5 people who didn't vote for me: austinmcc, Mufaa, Jailbreaker, Crossfire99, and Unforgiven_ve.

austinmcc: I find his posts extremely town-oriented and the fact the he voted BKE and stuck with it through without bandwagoning seems very credible and I doubt that mafia would be so aggressive in posting, so I find him clean.

Mufaa: I don't like how very early on his posts contained no assertions of mafia. I felt like he was just trying to stay clean and not put any pressure on himself until the very end of the day in which he voted for BKE. I also find his defense of me very fishy in that "Ana is probably just town" sort of thing.

Jailbreaker: Dead/town

Crossfire99: I don't find him suspicious for voting for me and sticking with his vote.

Unforgiven_ve: I am not going to make a judgement at this time on his posting, although he raises my suspicions as well.

My reasoning for bringing up the initial votes is because well - I know that: ShaioPi, Jailbreaker, BKE, and myself aren't mafia. That leaves 9 people left - with 4 being mafia. My synopsis of what happened day 1 was that the mafia began reasoning that I was of no use to the town so they abandoned my band wagon to try and hang someone more useful to the town. So my suspicions are of those who switched votes from me to BKE.

My biggest suspicions lie with BioSC and FirmTofu - I truly believe them to be mafia and would like for one of them to get hung today, and here is my reasoning why:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&currentpage=10#190

This post by Tofu not only distracts from any points made against BioSC but further asserts cases made against me and darkfire - and again my logic being that I know that I am not mafia so I can assume that the claims made against myself are baseless as his only points seem to be based off of what darkfire is saying.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&currentpage=10#183

BioSC also makes excruciatingly similar posts to Tofu - it's almost as if they are working together!

And my biggest reasoning to vote for them is because of how they both switched from my band wagon vote to vote for BKE after several times trying to seal a vote for me.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&currentpage=17#326

My opinions on fluff posts using "we" in town situations are also pretty revealing with one's alignment.

##Vote BioSC

Here's my vote - I strongly urge you guys to vote with me on this as I truly believe my synopsis to be accurate.

On May 14 2012 20:49 Anacletus wrote:
You're not even refuting or countering any of my points with validations for your actions anymore:

On May 13 2012 12:34 Anacletus wrote:
I actually think that it may have been a mafia tactic to off someone who was NOT on the right track to make us think exactly what you are saying.
Maybe you're mafia trying to start this trend?

On May 14 2012 11:16 Anacletus wrote:
This is very cute.

This is exactly what I am talking about man. You're playing exactly like mafia would. Of course the mafia wouldn't kill someone who was suspecting mafia - they would lynch someone who was pointing fingers at another townie and then after the killing they would bring up "Oh, this person_X thought Person_Y was mafia and Person_X was killed, that must mean Person_Y is mafia too and was killed for the suspicions!"

I'm even more deeply convinced that you are mafia now.

On May 14 2012 12:16 Anacletus wrote:

And of COURSE I bring up the fact that you're trying to denote hanging correlations with who the hanged thought was guilty, it's pretty standard mafia play. I'm convinced that you're mafia and you're voting for me because I think you're mafia? Cute reasoning, my vote isn't a counter to you voting for me on day 1, this is me being convinced that you are mafia.

On May 11 2012 22:38 austinmcc wrote:
My thoughts on Anacletus:

His play does not feel like good townie play. I brought that up earlier, we've all discussed it by now, and I think we all seem to come to the same conclusion. While I would support a lynch of Anacletus, I think we have better targets. I'll look through his responses more today, but for now I would prefer to look elsewhere, and see how Anacletus continues to play. Right now, "not good townie play" is my read, but I'm not convinced that his play is scummy and not just bad townie play.

However, we've got a quarter of D1 left, and I want to throw this case out and push it a little, see what comes of it. My top scum read: BroodKingEXE.

BroodKingEXE filter - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&user=233869

Skip 2/3 of the first page. It's pregame. He's active, vocal, chatting a lot with everyone in the pregame. Doesn't really mean anything.

First posts:
+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

These aren't entirely incompatible. Lynching lurkers bad, pressuring them good, let people post before we jump to conclusions. That seems townie, fine and dandy, but then he fires off the very first vote of the game on FirmTofu.

Why? Because FirmTofu posted + Show Spoiler +

Look at the bolded part of Broodking's first post. Now back to me. Now back to the bolded part of FirmTofu's post. Now back to me. Anything? That's the same exact thought process. And yet when FirmTofu vocalizes that, Broodking fires off the first vote of the game. I still don't agree with that vote at all, even if it was just to "pressure" someone, because there's absolutely no grounds for voting someone because they express a thought you just expressed slightly earlier.

From then on out, it's a series of one-liner and response posts, but never really DOING anything. Last night (eastern time), BroodKing had one of the longest filters, and yet the only substantive post was him voting FirmTofu off the bat.

For example:

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

After that, he starts giving responses to other people, specifically ShiaoPi's reads, but doesn't really add anything of substance. scummy

+ Show Spoiler +

Note that at this point, ShiaoPi has just thrown out the first real list of reads we had from anyone. BroodKing posts a couple times concerning the list, but doesn't really add anything. While he gets information out of ShiaoPi, he doesn't really provide any himself. At no point in those posts does he agree with a read or disagree with a read, rather, he simply acknowledges that reads were made and ShiaoPi voted. This is also the first point we begin to move AWAY from the Anacletus discussion (which has run its course at this point), and BroodKing continues to ask for information based on ShiaoPi's vote for Anacletus.

Finally, compare his filter from this game with his filter from Newbie VIII, where he was town.
+ Show Spoiler +
There are some posts in a similar style to his posts here, but a LOT of @x and @y, what do you guys think about z. Lots of longer discussions, paragraphs, lists. SOME of that is because he was the lynch target D1 and so had to be active and defend himself. But his townie posts from VIII feel more robust and they contribute, whereas his posts so far in XIII do not.

-------------------------------

Anacletus's play still feels more bad than scummy. I would like to let him live for now, and see if he starts to really contribute. Right now he has 0 town cred, so if he's mafia he can't actively muck up town discussion. If we back off the pressure, MAYBE he mounts a decent defense and provides some good reads, because...he's got to do that to get any cred back. If not? We lynch him later, or we see if we can get any information N1 from blue roles that push us forward.

Compared to Anacletus though, BroodKingEXE looks actively scummy. So far he hasn't contributed anything of note except the first vote of the game, which made little sense. He's supports getting responses before voting, but then votes without a response from FirmTofu. He wants scumhunting and reasoning, but has provided none. Again, I'm not opposed to an Anacletus lynch, but I would prefer to lynch the player that seems scummiest, which is BroodKing.

##Vote BroodKingEXE
##FOS: Anacletus

Dahdum, I'm especially interested in hearing your thoughts on this, as you read BroodKing to be scummy as well. I didn't really notice him until I looked through all the filters last night and realized he was my best scumread. Do you agree with my reasoning? Did you have different reasoning?

On May 13 2012 07:41 austinmcc wrote:
Assorted thoughts:

I'm still suspicious of Anac. More and more people seem to be swinging towards bad townie play. I'd like to see more contributions from you Anac, because at this point I'm still unconvinced. I may have helped save you from a lynch AND given you a story to hide behind.

I'm currently not really suspicious of anyone for "wagoning." When I initially posted on Anac and Brood, I legitimately felt that Anac was quite possibly townie, and Brood looked scummy. I stand by those reads. To the extent that you guys think those reads were sensible, then agreeing with them is NOT scummy play (in my mind). To me, I'm actually more suspicious of those whose votes didn't go Anac --> Brood.

On May 16 2012 06:05 austinmcc wrote:
Looks like I won't be back before the deadline, so I'll just parrot what everyone else is saying and note that I'm still suspicious of Anac, despite arguing against a vote on him D1.

What really sticks out to me is this post -


I alluded to it D1, + Show Spoiler +, but I didn't pressure that point. I still don't like him as a lynch candidate over others, but the fact that he came out and said he was new keeps me unsure about absolutely branding him as just playing poorly as town early on.

I don't know whether to slot Anac in as the third mafia, whether to think maybe dahdum and BioSC were just looking to make weak cases on each other and gain town cred if one was lynched and flipped scum, or whether there's another third mafia member out there. Relatively confident in those other two reads, and I can't really adopt some plan of "Assume everyone I read as scum is town," because that's just too confusing.

I'll post more when I get enough free time and a computer, but it will be after the deadline. If nothing else, should I be the nightkill, hopefully some of this will be helpful.

You were gone all D2. N2 you pop in 2 hours before deadline, and do respond to my case. I appreciate that. But now you've dipped out for another 24+ hours. We're talking 2 actual posts over the last...96 hours.

I'm not holding the Probulous comment against you anymore. I got an answer to one of my PMs, and not to the other, so I can believe that Prob is just a bum and Adam is a way better coach. You're rightfully suspicious of Anac. But other than that, who?

Heck, what about other stuff -- Why do you think the night kills have been ShiaoPi and dahdum? What made them good targets for mafia? Why not kill Firm last night? Come in here, contribute, even if it's just answering that stuff.

On May 15 2012 02:34 Mufaa wrote:
Ok, here we go.

Strongest reads for me so far are Dahdum and Darkfire.