EPTNewbie Mini XII
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular. I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered. Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target? Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'm going to attempt to put ourselves in a good position going forward by claiming Town Detective. Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me. This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why. 1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town. 2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth. 3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic. HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal. Clawtrocity, I hope you're telling the truth. I am not afraid of dying tonight. In order to round out this temporary alliance, I would ask that any other medics out there, please heal Clawtrocity. We should be safe for the time being. I think this is a better way to protect our key roles than the 1/7 random chance of mafia choosing to kill me. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Your move, mafia. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic: Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic. Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. Say what? You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea. Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak. Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me. Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 02 2012 13:29 Gummy wrote: There is less than a 50% probability conditioned on the history of past games of there being EITHER a jailkeeper another medic or both. Therefore this isn't a risk at all for the mafia. Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum. I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle. Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately. I'm sorry I haven't played many games on this site, so I don't have preconceived notions as to how games are balanced. While you may very well be right about there either being a jailkeeper OR a medic, you aren't exactly explaining your position very well. I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations. To be clear, I do believe you are town. I just would like you to see where I'm coming from. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Posted right after my role claim: On May 01 2012 20:16 Gummy wrote: We still haven't heard anything from AcesRequiem. Just fyi, in case you vote me off, I currently suspect Clawtrocity and Paschl. I am almost certain that ange777 demorcef dahdum firmtofu are good guys. I believe Matriarch and AcesRequiem, so far, to be entirely useless. >Claims he is almost certain I am a good guy. On May 02 2012 02:42 Gummy wrote: Claw is obviously scum. When I get killed tonight you know the other mafia is Paschl. >Claims Claw is scum to a very high degree of certainty. Absolutely no reasoning to back up his accusations. >Poses the conditional that if he dies, Claw and Paschl are mafia. No explanation given. On May 02 2012 02:45 Gummy wrote: If we are successful in lynching Claw and we discover he was scum, the other mafia must be tofu. IMMEDIATELY AFTER: >Poses a contradictory statement to the one he JUST posted that implies that in the event Claw flips mafia, I am mafia. Again, no explanation. On May 02 2012 02:48 Gummy wrote: Here is my logic: Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic. Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. >Finally attempts to explain his cryptic accusations. Is now dead-set on me and Claw being mafia. Note that this is a complete reversal from his previous conclusion that Claw and Paschl are mafia. Flip-flopper? I'd say so. I did not post a single time between these posts made by Gummy. However, Gummy completely changed his stance on his views on me from 100% confirmed town to 100% confirmed mafia. He makes no real case for why he did this other than posing hypothetical scenarios and saying they will occur with a 100% degree of certainty. Conclusion: Gummy should not be taken seriously. He knows absolutely nothing of value and is contributing nothing to our discussion. I am completely dumbfounded by his train of thought because it doesn't make sense for ANY alignment to act the way he is right now. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and conclude he is merely inexperienced before I jump to any conclusions about his role. I'll look into it more later. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them. Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information. ##vote: No Lynch | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well. This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:09 Gummy wrote: You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw claimed medic. Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:26 FirmTofu wrote: I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic: -Claw claimed medic. Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. FIXED! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:30 Gummy wrote: None of your evidence includes any of my painstakingly crafted game theoretic models. That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that. I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic. At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:45 Gummy wrote: So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Poll: When is day going to start? When Gummy switches his major to Greek and Near Eastern Mythology (4) Dec. 21 2012 (1) Now (0) Exactly an hour from now (0) Tomorrow (0) When paschl commits suicide because of Gummy (0) When MKP wins a GSL (0) Never (0) 5 total votes Your vote: When is day going to start? (Vote): Now I must know! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 04 2012 10:12 paschl wrote: isnt dec. 21 2012 and never basically the same thing? I guess it depends... Will Gummy ever change his major? Will MKP ever win a GSL? Are these also the same things as never? Particle-wave duality. The universe is one with us. *Insert New Age stuff here* | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. He is supportive of the survival of these three people currently in the spotlight. Therefore, we can assume that none of these three people would have had the motive to kill him. Essentially, these three people are less likely to be mafia. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. dahdum also has no motive to kill DeMorcerf because DeMorcerf was supportive of him. This makes him an unlikely mafia suspect, for now. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet. Matriarch remains a suspect because DeMorcerf remained neutral on her. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: ... Ange seems like a very likely suspect for mafia. She was actively criticized by DeMorcef and seems to be the person who would gain the most from his death. It's hard to be sure, but that's where we stand as of now. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"? Another great suspect for mafia. He was called out by DeMorcerf for scummy behavior and DeMorcef died last night. He also has a motive to eliminate this threat. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime). I'm willing to give paschl the benefit of the doubt here. While I did agree that he seemed a bit spammy and didn't read the rules carefully, I attribute this to his relative noobiness at the game. Although he did have some incentive to kill DeMorcerf, I don't think it was sufficient to warrant a hit on him. To round up this post, I will reveal who I checked last night. Matriarch appears to be Town. My List of Suspects(Most Suspect to Least Suspect): 1) Aces 2) Ange 3) Clawtrocity 4) Gummy 5) paschl 6) dahdum 7) Matriarch (Town) Let's hear your defense, Aces and Ange! | ||
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