TL Mafia XXXVIII

On April 13 2011 16:02 aidnai wrote:
Good god, I was trying to analyze coag's posts this game but when I searched for them I had to go past like 500 posts from insane 2 wtf?! coag, you are truly amazing...





Three posts in the thread as of now, all vaguely apologizing and not one single opinion. This is exactly the kind of dead weight we don't want around down the road -_-







Wow, another one -_-

On April 13 2011 15:26 Protactinium wrote:
Alright guys, now that night is over, I have another announcement to make.

I checked Coagulation last night, and he is Mafia.

Now you may be asking, is Protactinium trying to pull a fast one on me? I thought Assassins couldn't use any night actions till Night 2!

I am, in fact, not an Assassin, as I may have led you all to believe Day 1. I am actually a Detective, and I've found you a Mafia member right from Night 1.

Now why would I claim Assassin Day 1 if I was actually a Detective? It was intentional, and all part of the plan. Unfortunately, I wasn't elected, but at least I had a backup plan. TL towns have a history of wanting to Lynch All Liars, but there is a very good reason that I didn't claim Detective from the start. Just look at Pandain to see why DT claims never work: it's been tried before, and Mafia have every incentive to fake claim DT. Thus, the claim backfired and the entire town jumped on him and tore him to shreds. Not a desireable outcome if you're really a DT, right? And this wasn't the first game where that happened. If you have time, go back and read TL Mafia VIII, where nemY the Detective claimed Detective... and then got jumped by town. I expected the same backlash had I actually roleclaimed Detective, so that's why I went with the Assassin claim. Furthermore, while Mafia are very incentivized to claim DT, they would be stupid to claim Assassin, since if the election bid fails, the actual Assassins will just shoot them Night 2. On the other hand, claiming DT is fairly safe for mafia, as after the intial backlash, the claimed DT will generally be ignored for the rest of the game. Assassin claims also help draw out the Mafia, and as the Pandain example shows, DT claims don't have the same effect, since everyone attacks the DT claim and causes chaos.

And if you're saying this is a bus and I'm Mafia, you wouldn't be saying that after I net a Mafia Night 2. And then Night 3.

The next question is assassin numbers. Remember how I claimed that there were 3 assassins? That was actually a ploy to keep the actual Assassins off of me. In terms of balance, all of the past games with assassins had assassins consist of roughly 10% of the total game population. In XXII, a game of 38 people, there were 4 Assassins, and in XXX, a game of 30 people, there were 3 Assassins. This game has 40 people, so assuming that Ver and Qatol helped BrownBear balance the game along the same lines as they did for me, there should actually be 4 Assassins in the game as well. Thus, my claim of there being 3 Assassins was a guess, but an educated one, in the hopes to keep both the guise of me being Assassin up and the actual Assassins off of my back.

Anyway, my plan successfully drew out the mafia. As I said before, mafia and assassins are desperate to stop my campaign, as an assassin in office would be a serious threat to both parties. Yesterday's vote clearly showed that mafia got panicky and overreacted when the vote was close and I had a chance of winning the election. Anyway, going back to my original list:


So why is Coagulation suspicious?

He is clearly pushing mafia objectives. As I have established before, Mafia doesn't want me anywhere near the Mayor/Pardoner positions. Guess what Coagulation has done? He opposed me right from the start. Then during the middle of the election when it looks like I had no chance of winning, he shut up and wasn't saying anything about us except for when he made a candidates list explaining what he thought of each candidate. Near the end of the day, however, when it looked like we had a chance of winning, Coag suddenly jumps on us and starts frothing at the mouth. He attacks me viciously, this time saying that I'm Mafia doing a not-so-last-minute vote switch and that the Assassin claim was just to garner votes. Seeing that the "he's assassin, don't vote for him" strategy didn't work, he tries to spread more fear by saying that I am Mafia. Then, when it seems like I have no chance of winning anymore, Coagulation disappears again.

He's silent during the time between DrH winning and Kav getting flipped, even though he was conveniently defending Kav strongly before this time. And guess what? Although Coag was adamantly against the lynch earlier and attacks the lynch right after it occurs, he is mysteriously silent right before the lynch and doesn't bother saving Kav at a moment where his arguments could be critical. This is completely consistent with Mafia objectives, as Mafia obviously would prefer that a known analyst is lynched over a random inactive. Rather than constantly trumpeting his position throughout the thread, he pops up in bursts, striking when mafia need it most, and then disappearing when things are going well. I got most suspicious of Coag right after the lynch. Look at when he is posting, and when he is not, and its obvious that he has a hidden agenda.

But that's not all. The whole game, he is useless and does nothing except spam and spread doubt on the mayoral candidates. The more interesting and important point though, is that he has an utter lack of conviction on who could be mafia. In particular, look at when Coag was yelling at DH not to lynch Kav. DH asked him for alternatives, yet he couldn't name a single name, just "any of the countless scummy lurkers". Compare this with his games as town, where he has no problem pointing out who he thinks is most scummy, and its pretty obvious that Coag is trying to hide the fact that he knows who the mafia are. Classic Mafia mentality, not wanting to have to point out scum and be accountable for it. Coagulation as green is fearless, posting every single thought that comes to his head as to who is Mafia. As DrH said at the end of Assassin In the Palace, Coagulation posts very frequently. This trend of trying to actively hunt down and call out Mafia as green goes all the way back to Haunted Mafia. As red, look at games like Insane 2 and Don't Lose Your Village. Coagulation is much more restrained and doesn't point out any reds with conviction like he does when he's town.

To sum it up, Coag is pushing mafia objectives. He had fierce opposition to my candidacy (mafia do not want a pro-town assassin in office), and conveniently posted at the right times. The whole game, he has been indecisive and is spreading doubt. Furthermore, he has not shown any conviction on who he thinks is Mafia, which is completely inconsistent with his town play, while he has no trouble pointing out who he thinks is innocent (GMarshal and Kavdragon). With all this evidence and my role check, there's no reason to vote anyone except Coagulation. GMarshal is suspicious too, but I'm not sure one way or the other. One thing is certain though: if he pardons Coagulation, they're both Mafia 100%.

Like I said, this party is only getting started. Mafia totally fell for my trap, so we are way ahead of where we would be otherwise.

Vote for Coagulation.

On April 14 2011 12:56 Protactinium wrote:

Here's the cop out. The truth is, he doesn't respond to the analysis because he can't. He knows Coagulation is mafia. If you take a step back and think about motive, GMarshal has been way more shady than I have. I have been completely transparent and have been completely honest with you and have revealed all my plans to you. On the other hand, GMarshal has nothing to show for his empty words.

Think about GMarshal's overall profile. What is he trying to do? From day 1, notice how he does not express support for any candidate other than himself. Why? It seems that every other candidate was expressing who they wanted in office and why. It is extremely important for town to pick good elected officials. Yet GMarshal did nothing of the sort, and didn't say who he wanted to win election, besides himself. Yet he had no trouble in saying who he thought shouldn't be elected. It's obvious he has an agenda here. He doesn't care who gets in, as long as he is one of the winners. Look at the suspicious votes GMarshal gets. There are countless lurkers and inactives who vote GMarshal without explaining why. And as you recall, GMarshal was the first one out the gate, and managed to obtain a sizable lead early on in the race, while everyone else was stuck at less than 4 votes. At one point in time, GMarshal's 11 votes outnumbered all the other candidates combined. This is not a coincidence. As I've said before, mafia candidates are never uncompetitive in a mayoral election. Having the 20% of the total voting power, mafia always tend to get an early lead and maintain it. Why is this? Because of town tendencies to bandwagon, it is very advantageous to get an early lead, as you are likely to attract votes of newer/inexperienced/uninterested townies who feel safe voting for a big name player who leads the vote count. GMarshal's early lead suggests mafia interference. But that's not all. Look at the thread activity during day 1. There are plenty of people who are unsure of electing DH or me on day 1, but almost all GMarshal's voters are unmoving. There was plenty of room to sway votes among the DH/Protact crowd, but GMarshal's voters were alarmingly loyal.

Look at how GMarshal has acted during day 1. He mentions lynching inactives, is strongly opposed to me, yet ignores my accusation that he is black. After that accusation, he plays a little act and calms down a little, and even begins to waver. Yet a few posts later he's back to attacking me full on. He shares much the same profile as Coagulation. When I have no chance of winning, he doesn't say much. But when I suddenly get 3 votes, he starts spamming the thread along with Coagulation to try to stop my election. That's not all. Look at how he handles the lynch. He knows that he is leading for mayor, yet he is very vague when discussing who he is going to lynch. Although he suggests a few inactive/lurking targets, he never settles on one. He makes a half assed analysis on Mr. Wiggles, in which he cannot draw any conclusions. He never really takes the initiative to point out scum. Compare this to his town play, where he isn't afraid to smack down his vote and express a solid opinion.

Now on to day 2. GMarshal has done nothing productive for the town. He claims he is a good analyst, but it doesn't show. All he does is throw doubt and confusion, and opposes the Coagulation lynch strongly. I've already pointed out why this is a pro-mafia move. His first 10 or so posts on day 2 are aimed at shooting down the lynch. How? He does it by attacking my character. It's not hard to see how my analysis makes sense and is infinitely superior to others people have put out. Yet GMarshal can't be bothered to be any more pro town than shooting down the lynch. Put yourselves in a townie's shoes for a moment. Suppose you didn't believe my analysis, and there are already 10 votes on the suspect. As a townie, and especially a town elected official, you have to work quickly. You need to pick out a strong mafia target and push him hard. You can't just sit around, fling mud at the current lynch, and not push the town in the right direction. All of a sudden, GMarshal posts a huge DH accusation. Pro-town, right? Wrong. If you read the accusation, it's hillariously half-assed. It includes mockery and caricatures to make DH seem ridiculous and anti-town. DH's play is generally abrasive, yes. But in this game, it is clearly not anti-town. Notice how since from day 1, he's been calling out suspects, and isn't afraid to look like the bad guy. DH is too aggressive and bold to be mafia. Compare this to his mafia play in XVI, and you'll notice a huge difference. DH is much more diplomatic and wishy washy about his reads when he is mafia. Anyway, the important point is how GMarshal reacts after this "analysis". He continues to mess around, posting aimlessly, and posts nothing of value to the town. He doesn't even bother pushing his lynch target. This should ring red bells in everyone's head. A townie would be pushing for their lynch with all conviction. Yet what as GMarshal been doing? He posts his analysis, and doesn't mention it until a bit later where he asks DH to respond. Now just think about it. If you're town and have an accusation to make, you don't just post it and then just ignore it. You use whatever method you have to force people to focus on your analysis and push your agenda. GMarshal does nothing of that sort. He isn't serious about lynching DH, he is just trying to appear like he's helping town.

It's actually been obvious that GMarshal was mafia ever since day 1. I was hoping to avoid pointing out GMarshal as scum in the thread, because if he knew that we caught him, that he would just pardon Coagulation and gain delay us for a day. But alas, he was too aggressive to ignore. Everyone switch your votes to GMarshal, otherwise he will pardon Coagulation and this lynch is going to be wasted.