[MSL] Ro8 Day 3

In the midst of a controversial TvZ atmosphere, with mech switches and Terran maps abound, we are now treated to what may be the most intense night of TvZ for a long time. Two of the top Terrans in the world are each matched up with one of two top Zergs in the world. We will see as many as 8 high-caliber games of the match-up that many consider the defining snapshot of Starcraft. Let's take a look at the pickings for tonight.

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The first series for tonight is Light vs. Effort.

Light has the nickname "Invisible Terran," as he used to be quite good, but never accomplished much outside of proleague and was constantly overshadowed by his teammate, Sea. However, as of late, Light has made a name for himself, starting with his systematic destruction of the competition during the 2010 Winners League. While his all-around strength has since diminished to "above average," Light has now been getting a reputation for his unstoppable TvZ. With his recent 2-0 of Calm, Light has brought himself to a whopping 26-2 (92.9%) winrate against Zerg since his loss to Kwanro in the NATE MSL. Luckily for him, that's the matchup that he's playing tonight.

Effort was our darkhorse champion of the Korean Air OSL Season 1. Leta's wraiths and the gods of ZvZ have resulted in him recently losing his spot in the OSL, but he now has an excellent chance to show off his skill against someone who is arguably the best vZ player in the world right now. It's hard to judge Effort's ZvT; at times, he shows us amazing macromanagement and skill, but at other times, he is a typical mediocre zerg that pulls out wins due to mistakes by his opponents.

My prediction is going to be in Light's favor. Effort simply hasn't shown the consistency to put him as a favorite above Light. Effort's ZvT wins have so often relied on taking advantage of his opponent's greed or risk-taking, but that style simply won't work against Light, whose TvZ often seems to be sheer perfection. Effort's skill is nothing to laugh at, so I expect him to take a game, but you simply can't argue with a 93% winrate. 3-1 Light.

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Our second series contains a couple of much more popular players: Sea vs Jaedong.

Sea has garnered himself quite a few TL fans from his past interactions with Team Liquid as well as his very friendly demeanor. Known for his lack of success in individual leagues compared to Proleague, this is his first time in the MSL Round of 8. Sea is a very good all-around player, and recently has been getting a boost in his individual league runs by the mid-game mech switch, the new vogue in TvZ that has been causing cries of imbalance from many fans. Indeed, he and Light both used this tactic to defeat their opponents on Day 1 of the Round of 8.

Jaedong. What is there to say about him? He's the undisputed best Zerg in the world right now. When he's not being cocky and trying to win with mutas alone... well, actually, even when he is being cocky and trying to win with mutas alone, he is a force to be reckoned with in any matchup.

Sea and Jaedong have actually faced off in 3 games recently. Their game on Fortress featured a map-abusing strategy by Jaedong to quickly secure 4 gas before Sea could even lift a finger to respond, ending in an easy win by Jaedong despite Sea's hard fight. On the Zerg-favored Dreamliner, Jaedong tried to make a point by using pure mutalisks to defeat Sea. His strategy worked quite well, but his refusal to even make zerglings ended up allowing Sea to defend with Valkyries and move out with a bio force in the end and crush every unit that Jaedong threw at him, in what one could practically call a thrown game. On Polaris Rhapsody, Sea abused the map and the mech switch to defeat Jaedong easily, despite a large disadvantage in the early game.

Sea's TvZ is not quite at the level of Light's, and Jaedong is much more experienced in Bo5s than Sea is, boasting a ridiculous 83.3% winrate in Bo5s. I expect that Jaedong is smart enough to find a way to overcome the mech switch, because we are guaranteed to see Sea using that strategy tonight. The question is whether Sea's execution will be up to par to defeat Jaedong regardless; Sea asserts that when well-used, the strategy is unbeatable. I'm sure Jaedong disagrees with that statement.

As an MBC fanboy, I want to say that I expect Sea to win this. As an SC fan, I want to say that I expect Jaedong to win and make ZvT seem possible again. In reality, I think this will be a very close matchup that will end up 3-2 either way. I'm going to give my best guess, though: 3-2 for Jaedong.

Light <Polaris Rhapsody> EffOrt
Light <Triathlon> EffOrt
Light <Fighting Spirit> EffOrt
Light <Odd-Eye 3> EffOrt
Light <Polaris Rhapsody> EffOrt
Light 3-1 EffOrt

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Sea <Polaris Rhapsody> Jaedong
Sea <Fighting Spirit> Jaedong
Sea <Triathlon> Jaedong
Sea <Odd-Eye 3> Jaedong
Sea <Polaris Rhapsody> Jaedong
Sea 1-3 Jaedong

Jaedong and Light advance to play against each other in the semifinals!