Datamined Game Win/Loss Statistics

Silu

Finland165 Posts

July 15 2010 18:56 GMT

Just for kicks, I wrote a quick&dirty program to get some very basic data from players profiles on the new SC2 website that was recently launched. I'm crawling for more data as we speak and I guess I'll update this post when I get more if there's any interest, but some might be interested in what I've got so far.

The stats are pretty self explanatory: just the races, amounts of players and win and loss stats. Average win % means average win % across all games, while the average player win % means average win % across all players. So if the avg win% is higher than the avg player win%, that theoretically means the race requires more "skill" as the good win percentages are on the players with more games (thus bringing up the avg win% but not the avg player win %). Vice versa theoretically means the race is either less viable on high levels as the players with a lot of games have worse win percentages, or it just requires less skill so the people with less games can do well.

Here's the data so far, gathered from 1v1 only (duh) :

UPDATE: Courtesy of http://starcraftrankings.com , the data mining is even easier now. Here's the average ratings and race map win percentages from the recent match history for virtually all diamond players.

US REGION (~3300 players):
+ Show Spoiler +

Average Diamond ratings:
Terran : 235.04709748083243
Zerg : 223.09195402298852
Random : 213.29753914988814
Protoss : 235.13303167420815

Map statistics from Diamond games:
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 55.16 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 55.79 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 53.35 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 51.03 %
Terran on Lost Temple : 54.64 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 55.02 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 50.37 %

Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 56.45 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 52.87 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 52.23 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 48.47 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 54.94 %

Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 53.34 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 53.18 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 54.23 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 55.10 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 53.47 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 53.56 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 53.41 %

Random on Kulas Ravine : 52.34 %
Random on Metalopolis : 51.94 %
Random on Scrap Station : 51.85 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 54.14 %
Random on Steppes of War : 52.83 %
Random on Lost Temple : 52.94 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 52.56 %

EU REGION (~2700 players):
+ Show Spoiler +

Average Diamond ratings:
Terran : 258.703511053316, 769 players
Zerg : 243.84520547945206, 730 players
Protoss : 247.65024630541873, 1015 players
Random : 247.67032967032966, 273 players

Map statistics from Diamond games:
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 816/810 = 50.18 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 1133/920 = 55.18 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 829/726 = 53.31 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 639/564 = 53.11 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 1154/1024 = 52.98 %
Terran on Lost Temple : 1278/1018 = 55.66 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 873/965 = 47.49 %

Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 537/591 = 47.60 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 1049/941 = 52.71 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 883/769 = 53.45 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 550/463 = 54.29 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 978/977 = 50.02 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 1016/1023 = 49.82 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 1005/862 = 53.82 %

Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 1025/904 = 53.13 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 1253/1153 = 52.07 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 1098/1006 = 52.18 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 714/629 = 53.16 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 1510/1328 = 53.20 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 1449/1320 = 52.32 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 1419/1251 = 53.14 %

Random on Kulas Ravine : 264/231 = 53.33 %
Random on Metalopolis : 350/314 = 52.71 %
Random on Scrap Station : 310/272 = 53.26 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 244/186 = 56.74 %
Random on Steppes of War : 377/350 = 51.85 %
Random on Lost Temple : 302/363 = 45.41 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 350/304 = 53.51 %

Old, incomplete data:

+ Show Spoiler +

These are not the whole region stats, just a subset; that's why all win%s can be over 50% (more wins than losses were played against players not included). Specifically currently they are 10k profile numbers per region, leading to about 5.5k-6k profiles with 1v1 games played.

EU REGION, player amounts and race win percentages:
+ Show Spoiler +

*** Protoss ***
Diamond players: 210
Diamond wins: 7834
Diamond losses: 5939
Diamond win %: 56.879401728018586
Diamond average player win %: 57.745825746592594

Total players: 1999
Total wins: 31770
Total losses: 31339
Total win %: 50.341472690107594
Total average player win %: 50.335409295261734

*** Terran ***
Diamond players: 170
Diamond wins: 5899
Diamond losses: 4260
Diamond win %: 58.06673885224923
Diamond average player win %: 58.90079943093901

Total players: 1772
Total wins: 27039
Total losses: 27419
Total win %: 49.65110727533145
Total average player win %: 49.09382588162275

*** Zerg ***
Diamond players: 172
Diamond wins: 5946
Diamond losses: 4454
Diamond win %: 57.17307692307693
Diamond average player win %: 57.69252266391792

Total players: 1478
Total wins: 24095
Total losses: 23104
Total win %: 51.0498103773385
Total average player win %: 51.70109039139262

*** Random ***
Diamond players: 48
Diamond wins: 1608
Diamond losses: 1249
Diamond win %: 56.28281414070704
Diamond average player win %: 57.27544032169478

Total players: 733
Total wins: 11024
Total losses: 11065
Total win %: 49.90719362578659
Total average player win %: 50.97116509501811

Bronze: 1424
Silver: 1579
Gold: 1795
Platinum: 584
Diamond: 600

EU REGION, Diamond average ratings and map win percentages from the same data as above:
+ Show Spoiler +

Average Diamond ratings:
Terran : 245.28813559322035
Zerg : 226.67415730337078
Random : 228.4468085106383
Protoss : 238.889400921659

Diamond Map statistics:

Terran on Kulas Ravine : 54.15384615384615 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 57.45526838966203 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 55.10204081632652 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 57.0945945945946 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 52.36363636363637 %
Terran on Lost Temple : 54.79704797047971 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 49.88290398126464 %

Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 45.8498023715415 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.7907949790795 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 51.03092783505154 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 47.77327935222672 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 50.513347022587276 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 50.42553191489362 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 57.30593607305936 %

Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 54.54545454545454 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 52.89719626168225 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 51.247165532879826 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 49.84025559105431 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 54.69255663430421 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 50.911854103343465 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 54.738562091503276 %

Random on Kulas Ravine : 52.42718446601942 %
Random on Metalopolis : 59.82142857142857 %
Random on Scrap Station : 52.475247524752476 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 47.22222222222222 %
Random on Steppes of War : 55.81395348837209 %
Random on Lost Temple : 52.459016393442624 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 51.33333333333333 %

US REGION, player amounts and race win percentages:
+ Show Spoiler +

*** Protoss ***
Diamond players: 172
Diamond wins: 6590
Diamond losses: 4906
Diamond win %: 57.324286708420324
Diamond average player win %: 58.14703173000268

Total players: 1759
Total wins: 28091
Total losses: 26625
Total win %: 51.33964471087068
Total average player win %: 52.19619717160816

*** Terran ***
Diamond players: 139
Diamond wins: 5011
Diamond losses: 3739
Diamond win %: 57.26857142857143
Diamond average player win %: 58.45396761893058

Total players: 1467
Total wins: 22390
Total losses: 22011
Total win %: 50.4267921893651
Total average player win %: 51.43293804777954

*** Zerg ***
Diamond players: 126
Diamond wins: 4957
Diamond losses: 3833
Diamond win %: 56.393629124004555
Diamond average player win %: 57.86276027987997

Total players: 1276
Total wins: 20478
Total losses: 19676
Total win %: 50.99865517756636
Total average player win %: 51.87928273362291

*** Random ***
Diamond players: 71
Diamond wins: 2373
Diamond losses: 1804
Diamond win %: 56.81110845104141
Diamond average player win %: 58.29673792881712

Total players: 1001
Total wins: 15231
Total losses: 14412
Total win %: 51.381439125594575
Total average player win %: 54.0980079548428

Bronze: 1510
Silver: 1241
Gold: 1269
Platinum: 975
Diamond: 508

US REGION, Diamond average ratings and map win percentages from the same data as above:
+ Show Spoiler +

Average Diamond ratings:
Terran : 233.36241610738256
Zerg : 237.96062992125985
Random : 220.92537313432837
Protoss : 243.22413793103448

Map statistics:
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 57.30337078651685 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 56.388888888888886 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 54.0650406504065 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 48.818897637795274 %
Terran on Lost Temple : 57.25 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 54.038997214484674 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 52.5 %

Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 58.0246913580247 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.45054945054945 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 56.03112840466926 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 46.400000000000006 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 48.297213622291025 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 53.874538745387454 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 52.36363636363637 %

Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 50.588235294117645 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 56.446991404011456 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 55.47445255474452 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 50.27624309392266 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 53.605769230769226 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 53.319057815845824 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 53.333333333333336 %

Random on Kulas Ravine : 53.48837209302325 %
Random on Metalopolis : 62.121212121212125 %
Random on Scrap Station : 48.38709677419355 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 56.41025641025641 %
Random on Lost Temple : 55.96330275229357 %
Random on Steppes of War : 38.53211009174312 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 62.244897959183675 %

jamesr12

United States1549 Posts

July 15 2010 19:00 GMT

Sweet work, do you think you would be able to make a server ladder? What about Mu data that is the most interesting to me.

FearGorm

United States112 Posts

July 15 2010 19:01 GMT

Fantastic post! Is it possible to get some stats on the average rating?

Happy.fairytail

United States327 Posts

July 15 2010 19:05 GMT

edit: don't want to start another race imba argument, so I'm deleting my post

Chriamon

United States886 Posts

July 15 2010 19:08 GMT

Judging from this Random is quite obviously the weakest race with a win % of only 56.27.
lol

But seriously, this is interesting, maybe consider doing this for all of the servers and compiling in neat graph form (or put it in an excel spreadsheet and let someone else make fancy graphs).

Also, what is the difference between

Total average player win %
and Total player win %

QueueQueue

Canada1000 Posts

July 15 2010 19:10 GMT

Awesome. Would like to see data from all the servers for comparison purposes.

koppik

United States676 Posts

July 15 2010 19:11 GMT

Wow, I didn't think it was that even across all the races. 'toss is obviously more popular in EU than any other, but it's not that big of a gap. And win-rates are all roughly the same.

DeckTech

Netherlands26 Posts

July 15 2010 19:11 GMT

Nice!
Any idea how many players there are in the diamond league in total?

Doomrok

United States38 Posts

July 15 2010 19:14 GMT

Looks pretty balanced really.

jamesr12

United States1549 Posts

July 15 2010 19:14 GMT

#10

On July 16 2010 04:11 DeckTech wrote:
Nice!
Any idea how many players there are in the diamond league in total?

350 just add them up

Other interesting things:

350/3151 = 11% so diamond leauge is around 11% of all players

19933 total games played in diamond leauge, that is 28.475 games per player in diamond.
note: 2 players in each game

Nagano

United States1157 Posts

July 15 2010 19:15 GMT

#11

Great to finally see solid statistics like these.

Prima facie, the races looks pretty balanced. If possible, can you figure out the win percentages BETWEEN the races? Such as the win% of PvT, PvZ, TvZ. That would be even more comprehensive.

Chriamon

United States886 Posts

July 15 2010 19:16 GMT

#12

I think some of this data is going to be misinterpreted. Having similar overall win % doesn't mean much. You should only count games that are vs other diamond players, and go by specific matchups as well.

MasterJack

Canada215 Posts

July 15 2010 19:17 GMT

#13

Pretty cool!

Disastorm

United States922 Posts

July 15 2010 19:17 GMT

#14

I'm still a strong proponent that win %s do not mean balance. However, Its interesting to see the number of players for each race. I think Asia is Zerg, EU is Protoss, and maybe US is Terran?

Logo

United States7542 Posts

July 15 2010 19:20 GMT

#15

Any chance you could release the program and/or run the same on US and Asia?

Even better if you make it an open source program on something like github or sourceforge so more people can pitch in on it.

rastaban

United States2294 Posts

July 15 2010 19:25 GMT

#16

Wow, that was fast. Thanks for doing this, I love statistics.

Silu

Finland165 Posts

July 15 2010 19:26 GMT

#17

Yeah, I know these win%s don't mean that much. Guess I just wanted to show in some way that playing terran isn't a magic wand that anyone can wave to win every game

It was pretty much a given that the win%s are very very similar.

On July 16 2010 04:00 jamesr12 wrote:
Sweet work, do you think you would be able to make a server ladder? What about Mu data that is the most interesting to me.

Well, a server ladder means constant polling and crawling for updated data. I guess it's possible with the hardware and bandwidth, but I don't think Blizzard would like a system that's constantly harassing their service