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Catch 22 Mafia - Page 78

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
June 24 2013 05:27 GMT
#1541
On June 24 2013 14:04 Coagulation wrote:
well I think that all but cements my vote on him at this point.


Shiao has been around here for a while, and is a pretty smart guy, but historically that hasn't translated to his mafia play. He played a fairly good scum-game in his most recent game (I Swear Mini), however, I wouldn't call him an expert blue-sniper by any stretch.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 05:31 GMT
#1542
Ok I am caught up now. But mostly just skimmed the thread.Will be doing some rereading/filterdiving next. let me just post this on GK right now, since it looks like most of you want to lynch either him or me.

On Goodkarma:
I am really really torn on him right now. On Day 1 I was pretty sure that he was scum. Currently not so much anymore, there are still posts, which make me go, well that's scumGK, but there is also stuff that makes me want to think him town.
First off on the sucm tally we got his entire scumhunting effort. I don't remember playing a game with him where he was town, but I kept hearing from several people in I swear and here that he needs time to get started but is then a good townplayer in his own right. I just do not see it here. His cases have been pretty fucking trash. But posts like these:
On June 24 2013 09:08 goodkarma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 08:51 Hapahauli wrote:
I'll also state that I think Cora is really, really townie.

There are certain people that are off-limits for scum to attack (obvious townies, etc), because scum fundamentally want to blend in.

So when Cora is going off and being suspicious of players like OO, sloOsh, and Ange, that's 100% paranoid townie. Suspicions like that attract attention like crazy, and scum really just want to play along.



I'm inclined to agree with you Hapa.

The more telling thing there is that Cora has a mod-confirmed RB, and having soft-claimed blue, I find it much more likely scum would feel inclined to do this than town.

I agree on Oats too. I honestly don't have much more to say there.

Those on the DP wagon are still likely town. So that leaves you, me, Adam, and Shao.

Everything you've done recently has me inclined to believe you're town. You are just soooo much involved in trying to solve this game I find it very hard to believe you're faking it as scum.

Adam also I believe to be town, as he shows an active involvement in the game.

I'm obvtown.

That ONLY LEAVES Shao. By process of elimination, Shao must be the last scum.

##Vote: Shao


Also exist. They are pretty townie (even if wrong on me) on the mentality side of the game. Because largely based on elimination I also ended up with only him left, if we just go with face value of how things went down so far. Ergo if we do not assume some crazy plays with bussing on d1 for no reason etc.

Having said this I am perfectly fine to trade with GK, so just lynch me first to get my town flip and then go kill him.
Just wanted to post this before I go rereading
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
June 24 2013 05:47 GMT
#1543
Im confused lol.

So you dont think GK is scum but because of elimination, he is the only dude. Is that right?
No gg, No skill.
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 05:49 GMT
#1544
ebwop:
played a decent amount of games coag, its in my profile and played 4 scumgames, which are coincidentally also the last games I played. Won 2 by being carried by better scumplayers and won I swear with a good team effort
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 05:50 GMT
#1545
On June 24 2013 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im confused lol.

So you dont think GK is scum but because of elimination, he is the only dude. Is that right?



Yes, that is precisely my problem
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Ange777
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Germany1164 Posts
June 24 2013 05:51 GMT
#1546
Waking up only to find out I died is not what I had hoped for GG and good luck guys! ^^
♥ Sen - 台灣之光 ♥
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 05:57 GMT
#1547
Now thinking about it my trade idea is pretty decent actually...
We are 9 players left with 2 assasin 3rd parties gone and 2 scum flipped.
Balancewise we are probably at something like 8-1 or 7-1-1 so we can afford the worst case of 2 mislynches in a row now as in we mislynch me 7-1 and go 6-1 into next day (6-1-1 to 5-1-1 respectively) and if we assume worst case we would be at 4-1 or 3-1-1 which is fine I believe. Especially as to solve the game we really need one of GK/me flipped preferrably both
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
June 24 2013 05:58 GMT
#1548
I don't really get it Shaio - why are you advocating a "trade" plan involving flipping you and then GK if you're not sure that GK is scum?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:00 GMT
#1549
I am not sure on him, since I can see some town mentality behind his posts (especially the recent ones, having been gone from the thread for a while certainly helped as well), but by virtue of elimination and his earlier play he must be scum
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
June 24 2013 06:03 GMT
#1550
On June 24 2013 15:00 ShiaoPi wrote:
I am not sure on him, since I can see some town mentality behind his posts (especially the recent ones, having been gone from the thread for a while certainly helped as well), but by virtue of elimination and his earlier play he must be scum


Can you go through your reads some other players and why you feel so strongly that this is a process-of-elimination thing?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
June 24 2013 06:04 GMT
#1551
Hapa/shiao
Read on Adam? Does the open thing still apply?
No gg, No skill.
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:07 GMT
#1552
"confirmed" town are coag and cora, one by vigshot one by RB-fail from acro
I have strong townreads on sloosh and hapa
Decent townread on oats

Now let's add in the votes from d1:
OO was on DP so I am excluding him for now (as I said earlier if we assume no d1 bus your godfather early shenanis)
Leaving only adam or goodkarma left as scum
I feel much stronger about goodkarma as scum then on adam, but adam is a possibility.

I am therefore advocating a trade since I believe it to be necessary to have at least one of gk/me flipped as there is no reliable way to determine our alignments 100% with our cop gone now.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
June 24 2013 06:08 GMT
#1553
Can you filter Adam and give me your thoughts on him?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
June 24 2013 06:09 GMT
#1554
cora isnt town cause of RB fail, I dont see how thats alignment indicative.
No gg, No skill.
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:11 GMT
#1555
@oats:
Fine Cora is almost confirmed town then. I see no reason for hosts to send a pm if that was scum fakeclaiming rb.....
To not have cora's rb counterclaimed they just need to hold the rb, no need to use it actually whcih would trigger a Host pm
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
June 24 2013 06:12 GMT
#1556
On June 24 2013 14:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
When have you been shot n1 coag?


Pretty often. BCs arkham game is the most recent here.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
June 24 2013 06:13 GMT
#1557
cora is mod confirmed town.

how is that not clear?
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:14 GMT
#1558
@Hapa:
Adam does lack scumreads, but since I am about as lost as he is in terms of them, I can relate. Also posts like these:
On June 23 2013 21:37 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 23 2013 20:27 Ange777 wrote:
@Adam:

On June 23 2013 14:15 Adam4167 wrote:
On June 23 2013 14:05 Hapahauli wrote:
On June 23 2013 14:01 Adam4167 wrote:
No. There's being unintentionally bad, where I will try to figure you out (go see duel mafia and my read on sylencia), and then being intentionally bad, such as Kush in smurf. You don't want to put the effort into playing properly, then i don't want you around with the idea lingering in the back of my head that you could be scum playing us for fools.


We're not lynching Oats unless we think he's scum. Period.

Do you think Oats is scum? Also presumably you caught-up with the thread now that you're posting - who are your other scum-reads?


I am reasonably caught up.

Right now I want to see more out of GoodKarma, ShioaPi and Raynpelikoneet. Oats would be on this list as well if he weren't playing like a dick.

I consider everyone on the DP wagon to be out of the question for tomorrow.

Those of us that were on GK yesterday, I actually have some of my better townreads on: Cora, Marv and yourself (in that order).



Can you please clarify on the subject of your townreads? Are you saying that Cora, Marv and Hapa are your stronger town reads among the people who voted on GK or in general? What makes you so sure about them being town?


They're my strongest townreads in the game, bar Yamato who would sit either first or second behind Cora. It still blows my mind that DP actually flipped scum, because when I compare both wagons side-by-side I see most of the towniest people all apparently on the wrong side of this lynch, and seemingly a hoard of semi-lurkers got together and offed the mafia godfather. To say i'm perplexed is an understatement.


Cora is town to me because of his general attitude. He isn't afraid to be himself, even if it gets him lynched. Constantly trying to redirect people onto more productive endeavors - trying to get coag to stop tunneling marv who hasn't even posted in the thread yet, for example. He feels exactly the same way he did in Duel mafia, except his reasoning is stronger, which probably stems from playing a few games since then.

Marv is town to me because we seem to be thinking along the same train of thought. The fact that his reads seem to echo most of my own fills me with some confidence that he is probably town. Hes been trying to figure people out from what I can tell and he seems to share my confusion with the current state of the game - that someone I've given a town read on probably has me tricked. His meta read on me is another plus. Hes probably the person most familiar with my scum play after our escapades in Hero mafia and hes got me nailed dead-to-rights - my scum play is wooden, not fluid and I am literally petrified of posting for fear of being accused.

Hapa feels town because hes actually posting and engaging people. In duel I defended scum hapa for over a cycle before common-sense finally set in that I was defending him even when he wasn't defending himself. His willingness to engage me as soon as I joined the game, and again tonight, was more than I ever got out of him in Duel. Bottom line is if his post count drops off and he becomes withdrawn in the thread, hes scum - I don't see that from him here. He has one of the biggest filters in the thread and hes quick to interrogate people if he doesn't understand what they're saying.



&
On June 24 2013 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:
Rayn, the reason you cant tell who I suspect to be scum is because I don't know that myself. Ill walk you through my current thought process.

As per this post:
Show nested quote +
On June 23 2013 14:15 Adam4167 wrote:
On June 23 2013 14:05 Hapahauli wrote:
On June 23 2013 14:01 Adam4167 wrote:
No. There's being unintentionally bad, where I will try to figure you out (go see duel mafia and my read on sylencia), and then being intentionally bad, such as Kush in smurf. You don't want to put the effort into playing properly, then i don't want you around with the idea lingering in the back of my head that you could be scum playing us for fools.


We're not lynching Oats unless we think he's scum. Period.

Do you think Oats is scum? Also presumably you caught-up with the thread now that you're posting - who are your other scum-reads?


I am reasonably caught up.

Right now I want to see more out of GoodKarma, ShioaPi and Raynpelikoneet. Oats would be on this list as well if he weren't playing like a dick.

I consider everyone on the DP wagon to be out of the question for tomorrow.

Those of us that were on GK yesterday, I actually have some of my better townreads on: Cora, Marv and yourself (in that order).



I don't consider anyone on the DP wagon to be a viable lynch for tomorrow, so I strike them off my list.

I then take out the people I feel are town who were on the GK wagon - Cora, Hapa, Marv.

This leaves me with 4 names: Yourself, ShiaoPi, GK and Oats.

I liked your hustle on D1, so I feel most confident that you're town out of this bunch, so you come off. Oats is being a right shit, but most people seem to think hes town for it, so I move him to the maybe category. This leaves me with either GK or ShiaoPi. I doubt they're both scum together due to their actions on D1, so unless we're dealing with a 3 man scum team of DP, Oats and one of these two, I've already messed up somewhere in my logic. This leads me to conclude that either my town reads on the GK wagon are wrong, or that the scum are on the DP wagon and bussed him yesterday.

I sincerely do not think the scum team bussed yesterday, for that they threw away an exceptional scum player with probably the best role to suit his play style. So I take a look at the 3 people I called town on the GK wagon with me... and all I see is town.

I cant manufacture scum reads that I don't have. So this is where i'm at. I hope to have a better understanding of what actually happened D1 after the KP starts flying around the place. Where to tomorrow? Resolving the GK and ShiaoPi situation looks as good a place to start. I don't get a strong scum read off either of them by examining either of their filters. I don't find the cases that either of them put forward yesterday to be all that compelling either. Hence my comment on seeing what they did and how they did it.


are giving me a shitton of townie vibes
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
June 24 2013 06:14 GMT
#1559
On June 24 2013 15:07 ShiaoPi wrote:
"confirmed" town are coag and cora, one by vigshot one by RB-fail from acro
I have strong townreads on sloosh and hapa
Decent townread on oats

Now let's add in the votes from d1:
OO was on DP so I am excluding him for now (as I said earlier if we assume no d1 bus your godfather early shenanis)
Leaving only adam or goodkarma left as scum
I feel much stronger about goodkarma as scum then on adam, but adam is a possibility.

I am therefore advocating a trade since I believe it to be necessary to have at least one of gk/me flipped as there is no reliable way to determine our alignments 100% with our cop gone now.


This trade shit is retarded. If your town fucking lynch scum dont fucking martyr.
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 24 2013 06:16 GMT
#1560
Well I am all for lynching goodkarma now, since he is the only scum that makes sense logically. But since you seem to be more happy to kill me first I'll take that trade.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
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