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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
On April 26 2012 23:54 marvellosity wrote: Do you find it likely we have a vig when, for example, BM was not shot in Night 1? Maybe not. But maybe its just a vig being careful waiting for better odds (less people) or a better chance (almost confirmed scum) to shoot. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 26 2012 23:54 marvellosity wrote: Do you find it likely we have a vig when, for example, BM was not shot in Night 1? Well we know we don't have a vig reckless enough to make a sub-optimal shot night 1. Or that they did and BM is a gf or one of the two were jailed. or they shot somebody else who was a GF or one of them was jailed. It's as if all we actually know is that no shot went through. Guys can you please stop all of this blue discussion. Unless you have some sort of ingenious plan for the blues that is vastly superior to them making their own decisions which are relatively straightforward then cut it out. I was going to say that Risen is a better shot but after thinking about it i think that Ottoxlol is a better shot but we should actually shoot/lynch neither. My thoughts on the implications of yesterdays lynch: It is true that if ottoxlol flips red then risen's switch would have been so beneficial to mafia that he likely is too. Shooting risen we have a similar impact since the switch made him a target and he would have no good reason to put himself in the spotlight for being anti-town unless it was to save a teammate. If Risen flips mafia then it is highly likely that his switch was to save a team-mate, which would be ottoxlol. If Risen flips town then we can't really infer anything about ottoxlol's alignment since Risen didn't know it and would have vote switched for the reasons he gave. If ottoxlol flips mafia then it's clear that Risen's switch did save mafia and the most reasonable explanation for this would be that he too is mafia. If ottoxlol flips town then Risen would have switched a lynch that mafia had no real reason to change and we can infer that Risen is very likely town. If we assume that nothing outlandish is happening then the following flips will lead to this: Flip: Risen => Risen Ottoxlol Risen => Risen Ottoxlol Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol This means that if we are trying to be objective, ottoxlol's flip is the mosts valuable.. I believe that ottoxlol is town and that we are likely dealing with two town therefore we should not flip either. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
On April 27 2012 00:31 layabout wrote: Well we know we don't have a vig reckless enough to make a sub-optimal shot night 1. Or that they did and BM is a gf or one of the two were jailed. or they shot somebody else who was a GF or one of them was jailed. It's as if all we actually know is that no shot went through. Guys can you please stop all of this blue discussion. Unless you have some sort of ingenious plan for the blues that is vastly superior to them making their own decisions which are relatively straightforward then cut it out. I was going to say that Risen is a better shot but after thinking about it i think that Ottoxlol is a better shot but we should actually shoot/lynch neither. My thoughts on the implications of yesterdays lynch: It is true that if ottoxlol flips red then risen's switch would have been so beneficial to mafia that he likely is too. Shooting risen we have a similar impact since the switch made him a target and he would have no good reason to put himself in the spotlight for being anti-town unless it was to save a teammate. If Risen flips mafia then it is highly likely that his switch was to save a team-mate, which would be ottoxlol. If Risen flips town then we can't really infer anything about ottoxlol's alignment since Risen didn't know it and would have vote switched for the reasons he gave. If ottoxlol flips mafia then it's clear that Risen's switch did save mafia and the most reasonable explanation for this would be that he too is mafia. If ottoxlol flips town then Risen would have switched a lynch that mafia had no real reason to change and we can infer that Risen is very likely town. If we assume that nothing outlandish is happening then the following flips will lead to this: Flip: Risen => Risen Ottoxlol Risen => Risen Ottoxlol Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol This means that if we are trying to be objective, ottoxlol's flip is the mosts valuable.. I believe that ottoxlol is town and that we are likely dealing with two town therefore we should not flip either. Am I correct in inferring that you believe we should lynch ottox then risen (if ottox is red) or MG (if ottox is green)? | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 00:31 layabout wrote: I believe that ottoxlol is town and that we are likely dealing with two town therefore we should not flip either. | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
But if you do, killing Ottoxlol would be the better choice. On April 27 2012 00:35 marvellosity wrote: So layabout, we know you think MG - do you have any other likely candidates? I will answer this before the deadline, since the explanation i give would be helpful to a mafiateam wondering who to shoot | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:03 Mattchew wrote: was distracted by the pretty colors. Basically I was gonna argue that his correlations are not well founded. Remember Risen didn't save Ottox from a lynch, he simply made it a tie favoring zeph. His vote didn't matter in the least, which is why it makes almost no sense for him as scum to switch like he did. Ottox on the other hand can easily still be scum but I don't think it has anything to do with how Risen acted/voted It's a little bit dangerous to think like this imo. From reading the votethread it looks like this - Ottoxlol was leading 8-7 (inc. Risen's vote) before Broodking tied it up at 8-8. So Ottoxlol is set to be lynched. Then Risen votes for Zephirdd, making it a Zephirdd lynch, regardless of his subsequent switchback. This means that Risen saved Ottoxlol from the lynch one way or another, and could be using the switchback as a desperate/confused townie look. I am well aware this is all wifom, but my point is that it's not necessarily correct that it makes no sense for a Risen-scum to switch like he did - it is in fact plausible. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:05 Mattchew wrote: clarifying EBWOP: made it a tie that was still favoring zeph to be lynched If that is the case then risen's open panicking in the thread was for nothing. hmmmmm... Would i be correct that this is in fact this vote that switched the lynch from ottox to zephird? On April 26 2012 08:52 BroodKingEXE wrote: ##Vote: Zephirdd and this is the explanation for it? On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote: ##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:18 layabout wrote: If that is the case then risen's open panicking in the thread was for nothing. hmmmmm... Would i be correct that this is in fact this vote that switched the lynch from ottox to zephird? and this is the explanation for it? See my post above on how the voting went down, layabout. I believe Broodking had made another post on Zephirdd before that one, see spoiler below + Show Spoiler + On April 26 2012 02:19 BroodKingEXE wrote: @Marvel It seems like your posting has gotten a lot better since you started so I am going to take my scum suspicions off you. I still have mixed feelings on your scattershot accusations, but they seem to be based off real facts. You asked me about Zephirdd/Sentinel/Ottoxlol. Out of the three of them I find Zephirdd pretty scummy, his last minute vote seemed rushed to me as if he was a Mafia trying to jump a bandwagon. Regardless of the fact that he mistimed the vote he made a post like this: I see this post as quite scummy, what does he mean by will reconsider? That statement leads me to believe that he bandwagoned the vote(which he in fact admitted) and is trying to set up a situation where he can say that the vote was rushed later. This post is also very scummy, what is the point of creating a scum list based on no evidence? He says not to take it seriously, but then why did he post it? He then says that he would have put his vote on marvel, one of the people on this "emotion-based" scum list, seems pretty fishy to me. He easily could have made a scumslip, and is trying to make up a hypothetical situation which makes him look better. He then flips around the idea of him making a case/analysis, and proceeds to say that he doesn't need to make a strong case against anyone. Recently he has been using more of his hypothetics to convince people to not vote for him. This is WIFOM reasoning and leads me to believe he is trying to mislead the town. I only see one useful post (the one about his reads on the town), but it even has a lot of unsupported conlclusions and blatant contradictions. I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post. | ||
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Ottoxlol
735 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
But look! BK "ninja" voted too and we almost missed it. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:22 layabout wrote: Nevermind risen is still responsible for the target changing. But look! BK "ninja" voted too and we almost missed it. No he didn't, as per my post above. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post. and delivers us this: On April 26 2012 04:45 BroodKingEXE wrote: Can someone point out to me why all this suspicion about Ottoxlol? I'm having trouble finding any big cases against him. His earlier posts look fine to me. On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote: ##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:25 layabout wrote: interestingly enough marv BK writes: and delivers us this: Yes, this is also something I had noticed. The way I read it at the time was in the 2nd post, he was following through on his 1st - he was looking at Ottoxlol, and he hadn't found anything major and so was asking. Not great since Ottoxlol has posted scummily in parts, but it does suggest he went to look like he said. What he didn't do is post his thoughts on Sentinel as promised. That's fact. | ||
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