[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 63

On January 24 2014 11:19 austinmcc wrote:
Side note, just putting this in thread while trying to chart stuff out.

IF Foolishness is mafia, then mafia Foolishness and mafia Sandroba were both pushing unknown alignment Promethelax yesterday. That combo means very very very very very very very very very likely that Promethelax is town.

That also means that the ONLY people voting not-mafia on D1 were Kitaman and HF.

Foolishness alignment unknown. Votes not perfectly telling, but WoS and VE both on Foolishness, and if he were mafia and actually looking like he might be lynched, I would expect not just a Foolish push towards votes on Prome, but a vote swap from the other mafia onto Prome.

So the possibilities of the third player in a Foolishness/Sandroba/x team really get chopped down and, to me, look like they consist only of Kita.

On January 24 2014 10:06 austinmcc wrote:
Not much. It's night, we lynched scum, and we lynched scum in a way that would throw off some of the reads he had on the game as a whole.

An updated big reads list before the night ends? Maybe. An updated big reads list in general that isn't heavily heavily heavily based on votes? Maybe.

I'll admit, no great answer there.

I think it's much easier in this case than you're making it seem? Because he's not painting his filter as townie. He's painting a picture with just the VOTES with him as town. He doesn't have to justify past comments, doesn't have to show why he legitimately thought prome was scum when prome looks townier after the flip, all he has to do is take the votes he's been given and weave them in such a way that him being town presents a couple suspects.

I dunno, I pretty much only seem to make extendedly long posts, so I'm not the best judge here. But I find there to be a distinction between a long post assuming you're town and giving all these reads, and a long post in which you set the votes in such a way that you're town and a couple people shake out suspicious.

On January 23 2014 08:08 Foolishness wrote:

Hasn't changed a thing.

I'm pretty sure his vote didn't mean anything, still looking it over to be sure.

On January 23 2014 08:27 Foolishness wrote:

That's why I said that the sandroba lynch wasn't good.

Vote count: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#820
At this vote count:
Foolishness: 6 Promethelax: 3

Then gonzaw and Austin both vote sandroba.
Then Marvellosity votes sandroba.
Foolishness: 4 Promethelax: 3 sandroba: 3
Then Hapahauli votes for sandroba
Foolishness: 3 Promethelax: 3 sandroba: 4
Then Promethelax votes for sandroba
Foolishness: 2 Promethelax: 3 sandroba: 5

Technically Hapahauli had the hammer. But Promethelax voted 1 minute after Hapa did. So yes, Promethelax's vote did not count in the grand scheme of things. Considering that his vote was only a minute after Hapa, he might as well be considered a hammer vote as well.

On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:

I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events.

Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#820

The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli.

Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later.

At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen.

Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3.

Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after.

It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point.

Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down.

What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1.

Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case.

So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.

On January 24 2014 11:35 austinmcc wrote:
Defending foolishness doesn't mean something wrong or you need help, perfectly legitimate.

I just didn't like taking him off the possible list, nor the people who were just saying "Amg recent posts look townie, Foolishness totes town now gaiz" without seeming to consider his full filter in light of the flip.

He's a possibility, not guaranteed red, but I just like seeing more people posting on him and having thoughts based on the full filter.

On January 23 2014 07:46 Foolishness wrote:

Or there's a very simple explanation to what's going on here.

I don't like the sandroba thing any more than you do I assure you. But he did his research.

On January 22 2014 10:11 WaveofShadow wrote:

This post in specific by Holy I feel is important.
The nitpicking he has been doing in regards to gonzaw and Hapa feels townie to me, and I do agree with his final thoughts except that final sentence rubs me the wrong way. The game of mafia is by nature a game of paranoia and I don't really feel that his line of questioning needed justification in that way---the 'things he looks out for' seem perfectly natural things for a townie to look out for (and hence why I was liking a lot of his posting), but then why make excuses for yourself at the end with that final sentence? Where is the holy wrath, righteousness and vindication ina townie knowing you're doing the right thing?

Holy, your filter has completely been devoid of me, and I believe I get my best reads from conversing with people directly, so maybe now that we're both here we can talk just a little?
Since you were curious over some people's obsession with Foolishness before he started to contribute, I might guess that now that he's actually done something you might actually have something to comment on the matter?
What do you make of the fact that he has apparently chosen you as one of his primary targets for the day? (He still has his vote on me i believe but I imagine that will be moved one way or another.)

On January 23 2014 00:14 WaveofShadow wrote:
Actually on second thought, more detailed reads will have to wait until later in the day.
Until then, notes:
Firm null on Prome - VE's points about the 'conversation starter' similarities to LX ring true with me, though he appears to have more of an actual direction this game. There was stuff about his earlier content I both liked and disliked, too early to tell on him. Still waiting on breakout case from him and others.

Holy - No fucking clue---never played with him before. Some of the pseudo-anger displayed could be seen as townie but I don't really give it much weight---nitpicking Hapa seems really odd. Gonna have to look deeper on this.



Be back in a few hours.

On January 24 2014 11:41 gonzaw wrote:
There's also the fact that Foo had 6 votes on him (2nd guy had 3), and he's just calm discussing stuff with people and talking about his sandro read and shit, 10 minutes before deadline.
Weird if he's town (like...try to prevent your own lynch dude wtf), but much weirder if he's scum, UNLESS it's some preplanned scum bullshit bus where Foo takes the fall D1 for some reason or some shit.

On January 24 2014 11:19 austinmcc wrote:
Side note, just putting this in thread while trying to chart stuff out.

IF Foolishness is mafia, then mafia Foolishness and mafia Sandroba were both pushing unknown alignment Promethelax yesterday. That combo means very very very very very very very very very likely that Promethelax is town.

That also means that the ONLY people voting not-mafia on D1 were Kitaman and HF.

Foolishness alignment unknown. Votes not perfectly telling, but WoS and VE both on Foolishness, and if he were mafia and actually looking like he might be lynched, I would expect not just a Foolish push towards votes on Prome, but a vote swap from the other mafia onto Prome.

So the possibilities of the third player in a Foolishness/Sandroba/x team really get chopped down and, to me, look like they consist only of Kita.

On January 24 2014 11:48 gonzaw wrote:


Hmm, there is indeed that "Only 1 of VE/Foo is scum, not both" thing I mentioned and everybody ignored last cycle..
..and VE doesn't really look too good ya know? (greatest understatement of the year).

Also, you are missing Holy/Toad from there. Kita OR Toad make sense as Foo scumbuddies. Someone said last cycle that it would make sense for Holy to "waste" his vote nevertheless (and not vote Foo/Prome/etc), so as to not put his replacement in such a bad spot. If Foo is scum, it is possible scumteam told Holy to play it safe. Out of sandro, Foo, and Holy's replacement, it's the replacement that has the most chances of surviving end-game this game as scum.

On January 24 2014 11:46 austinmcc wrote:
Sure, funky on both accounts, but then that doesn't get us anywhere.

I don't think it's weirder for scum, scum have more control over the lynch because they can work in concert, so regardless of what the plan is, you can actually have a plan in place to hopefully not have yourself get lynched. And while prome only had 3 votes, I had been clear that I wanted prome/sandro over foolishness, and, as things were shaping up, I was going to need to vote prome to hope to have any effect on the lynch.

That makes it like...6/4/1 or whatever, meaning another two swaps and everything groovy, and you could guarantee one if any of the Foolishness voters were also scum.

I think....I think I should stop going this route and just stick to HEY EVERYBODY HERE'S SOME WEIRD STUFF TALK ABOUT IT.

...and you could guarantee one if any of the Foolishness voters were also scum.