EPTOh well
Pyrry's Mafia Game - GG - Page 53
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clazziquai
6685 Posts
Oh well | ||
motbob
United States12546 Posts
On May 29 2009 11:45 Foolishness wrote: Honestly what are you guys talking about? I have PMed both JeeJee and crate but both are too SHIKYO IS MAFIA SHIKYO IS MAFIA SO IS RA.XOR.2 I told you guys WHAT TO DO! DONT VOTE FOR RA.XOR.2!!! Change to l10f, who is confirmed mafia, rather than Ra.Xor.2, who is just speculation. The lack of mafia freaking out indicates that we are not killing two mafia. Pawsom seems more likely mafia than Ra.Xor.2, so I'm willing to bet Ra.Xor.2 is not mafia. crate and JeeJee are easily the reasons this is a town loss. The whole Shikyo is mafia is beyond ridiculous. What should happen is this: tonight: town lynches l10f and pawsom: 2 mafia down. Night: Assume mafia get two kills: Tomorrow: lynch ydg and phelix From there with 4 mafia down we got the game in the bag. It will be easy to narrow down the remainders, especially considering wurm is probably mafia. If a few more townspeople die we will know who is left. Then it is gg mafia. If you're so high on behavioral analysis then look up l10f's posting history. It's clear he's a Miller. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 29 2009 11:59 motbob wrote: If you're so high on behavioral analysis then look up l10f's posting history. It's clear he's a Miller. ...did you not read any of my long posts up above? | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On May 29 2009 12:06 Foolishness wrote: Please make the night post Pyrry so I can yell and scream at everyone I'm working on it right now. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.solarnavigator.net/geography/geography_images/lightning_bolts_red_night_sky.jpg) Night 4 The town dragged two more suspects to the gallows, hoping for a miracle. The first smelled terrible, and gnawed on his cuffs as the rope was laid around his neck. The floor dropped out from under him, and Pawsom choked to death. The town breathed a sigh of relief, and dragged Ra.Xor.2 forward. "Oh sure, kill the black man!" he yelled, but no one would listen. The town hung Ra.Xor.2 and resumed their sobbing and infighting. Foolishness is incarcerated for the night. Night will end in 8 PM PST Friday. Oh, I forgot: epicdoom gets struck by lightning. | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
the black dude always dies first | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
just cluechecked the scarlet embarrassment death release sentence at shikyo and got a positive in case someone needed even MORE convincing on what to do tomorrow.. here's hoping we block a hit or two tonight | ||
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
GG | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
gg mafia | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
ill be in charge of medics tonight unlike some noob that's in jail at the moment who fails. hard. i'll yomi the fuck out of mafia and only one hit will land observe. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 29 2009 12:50 JeeJee wrote: it's ok ill be in charge of medics tonight unlike some noob that's in jail at the moment who fails. hard. i'll yomi the fuck out of mafia and only one hit will land observe. Regardless of whether Shikyo is mafia, you're one of the main reasons the town lost | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
On May 29 2009 12:55 Foolishness wrote: Regardless of whether Shikyo is mafia, you're one of the main reasons the town lost you're in jail visiting hours are over | ||
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iLoveKT
Philippines3615 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
hahahahahaha owned | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 18 2009 14:48 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: The game is very imbalanced toward the mafia unless town members speak up to drown out the mafia's mischievous voices and votes. gj town | ||
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SugiuraMidori
United States281 Posts
On May 29 2009 11:45 Foolishness wrote: .... What should happen is this: tonight: town lynches l10f and pawsom: 2 mafia down. Night: Assume mafia get two kills: Tomorrow: lynch ydg and phelix .... Uhm.. Foolish, however much I'd love being able to double lynch tomorrow as well.. we already used them all up (we only get the two). So.... Here's my counts I'm doing this because I'm interested in the math (math minor, etc): 15 players left... Possible Blues: crate Foolish teks (powerless --> green) ? ? JeeJee Shikyo Possible Greens: choaser clazz Knutti ILoveKTF SugiuraMidori motbob Possible Reds: (based all on Foolish's post) ydg wurm Phelix l10f Sadly this means:: We have 6 greens... one is miller, two are mafia, two are blue, one is green. I'll hide all the calculations in a spoiler tag so as not to make a monumentally sized post and let it be collapsible. + Show Spoiler + Now following with l10f's post...(sorta) Format: Mafia/Town -- In order for mafia to win they must have greater numbers than town, equal is not a win for them. This doesn't count Shikyo lasting till Day 10, if he does town wins "draws" I am also making a huge assumption that Foolishes list is correct.. if it's not they win. From here we have: Now: 6/9 (1) N4: 6/6 (assuming they get a full triple hit in) D5: 5/6 (using Foolishes list we can get some hits) N5: 5/3-4 (mafia gets two or three hits and has now won) (1a) Diff Scenario for (1) N5: 5/5 (mafia only gets one hit) D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list) N6: 4/3 (mafia got two hits and won) (1b) Diff Scenario for (1a) N6: 4/4 (mafia only gets one hit) D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/2 (mafia gets two hits to win) (1c) Diff Scenario for (1b) N7: 3/3 (mafia gets only one hit) D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes current list) N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP now) D9: 1/2 (we get lucky and get one -- hit non mafia = loss) N9: 1/1 (they get another) D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD (2) N4: 6/7 (assuming they only get two hits) D5: 5/7 (Foolishes list) N5: 5/5 (they get all two hits) D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list) N6: 4/3 (mafia now wins with two hits) (2a) Diff Scenario for (2) N5: 5/6 (they only get one hit) D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list) N6: 4/4 (they get two hits) D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/2 (they get two hits and win) (2b) Diff Scenario for (2a) N6: 4/5 (they get one hit) D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/3 (they get another two) D8: 2/3 (we get the last on Foolishes current list) N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP) D9: 1/2 (we get lucky on one -- hit non mafia = loss) N9: 1/1 (they get one more) D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD (3) N4: 6/8 (mafia only gets in one hit) D5: 5/8 (Foolishes list) N5: 5/5 (mafia gets three hits) D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list) N6: 4/3 (they get two hits) (3a) Diff Scenario for (3) N5: 5/6 (mafia gets two hits) D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list) N6: 4/4 (they get another two hits) D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/2 (they get two hits) (3b) Diff Scenario for (3a) N6: 4/5 (they only get one hit) D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/3 (they get two hits) D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list) N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP) D9: 1/2 (we get lucky or else lose) N9: 1/1 (they get a hit) D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD (3c) Diff Scenario for (3b) N7: 3/4 (they get one hit) D8: 2/4 (last on Foolishes list) N8: 2/3 (they get one -- 1KP) D9: 1/3 (we get lucky and hit one) N9: 1/2 (they get a hit) D10: 0/2 (we find the last one) (3d) Diff Scenario for (3c) D9: 1/2 (we miss and get our own) N9: 1/1 (they get one) D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD (3e) Diff Scenario for (3) N5: 5/7 (mafia only gets one hit) D6: 4/7 (Foolishes list) N6: 4/5 (mafia gets two hits) D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/3 (mafia gets two) D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list) N8: 2/2 (mafia has 1KP) D9: 1/2 (non mafia hit = loss) N9: 1/1 (mafia gets a hit) D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD (3f) Diff Scenario for (3e) N6: 4/6 (mafia gets one hit) D7: 3/6 (Foolishes list) N7: 3/3 (mafia has 2KP) D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list) N8: 2/2 (mafia has 1KP) D9: 1/2 (non mafia hit = loss) N9: 1/1 (mafia gets a hit) D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD (3g) Diff Scenario for (3f) N7: 3/4 (mafia only hits one) D8: 2/4 (last on Foolishes list) N8: 2/3 (mafia has 1KP) D9: 1/3 (we have to get red or it's a draw like above) Now assuming I hit ALL of the possibilities.. I might have missed one: Total = 15 possibilities Red: 12 abilities to win -- 80% Green: 2 abilities to win -- 13% Draw: 6 abilities to draw -- 40% If Shikyo is around and not mafia (I don't think he is, others do), town wins draws.. that makes.. ~53% town win chance Yes the numbers overlap.. didn't know how to count draws so they multi-counted. | ||
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SugiuraMidori
United States281 Posts
so that's 46.7% chance to draw and if Shikyo is townie and lives till the end...60% chance town wins.. So what do you think this means? 1) Shikyo is mafia then we lose 2) Shikyo is green, dies ... we lose 3) Foolish is wrong on anything.. we lose 4) Mafia kills >2 people tonight.. we lose I think I'm ready to give up on our town winning. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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