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@ Hopeless1der - Good analysis, I have some commentary below regarding some of your conclusions. Agree on Jingle/YourHarry being guarenteed townies, however, I severely disagree with you on Tube.
On July 21 2012 13:13 Hopeless1der wrote: --SNIP--
Day 1, wiggles was pushing tube as his scum read. I sincerely doubt he would have tried to bus that early in the game. This is a much weaker conclusion, but the case on tube seemed like a legitimate attempt to get him lynched. I'm not 100% convinced that tube is town, but he's now going to be one of the last players I consider as a potential scum. --SNIP--
While wiggles did build a case on Tube, its important to note the timing and situation in which he did so.
Wiggles votes for Tube when the bandwagon train is firmly on Obvious.660 (3 votes for obvious, vs 1 vote for a bunch of other people) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=22#423
They then get into an "argument" when Obvious.660 is set to lynch. After the night, drwiggl3s never mentions Tube again, even after grilling him for so long. This points to the "argument" being staged in a safe situation for both mafia.
But the most incriminating evidence against Tube is his D2 vote and his complete lack of posting on D2. Tube was willing to post plently on N1, then immediately got quiet when suspicion was flying around Calgar and YourHarry. Furthermore, he comes in right when Jingle points out drwiggl3s scumslip and bandwagon votes iamperfection. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=44#870 <--- the vote, be sure to read the context around it
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Yeah, I'm with Hapa on the tube thing. Sorry, trying to get time to post some stuff before the Day post, but my kid's birthday party is today.
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Harry is confirmed town, Hopeless is probably town (the rather dumb thing he posted in the thread has connotations that would make it better NOT to mention in the thread if he was scum and saw it), I'm pretty much confirmed town, although I'd be shocked if I didn't die tonight.
Fulla and Tube, of course, are both suspicious. Given the pace of the voting, Hapa and Calgar are mostly clear in my eyes, because they were very fast to jump to Wiggles, and their support was likely what helped shift the voting effectively.
Generally scum would only bus if the situation was untenable, not as a precautionary measure, plus they probably both would have shot me N1. Unless they're playing some sort of WIFOM head game that would doom town, I don't expect they'll flip red. Maybe one of them, but definitely not both.
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On July 21 2012 12:42 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 09:14 calgar wrote:A summary of drwiggl3s filter. Tried to hit the highlights - it's not too long though so everyone should dig back through it. The last page is mostly worthless arguing. + Show Spoiler +Early on, tube points FOS on him.On July 17 2012 05:54 tube wrote: drwiggl3s your first post is you jumping on the (completely pointless) JingleHell mini-bandwagon against me and then going on to say that not posting content-heavily means im trying to "fit in" which i wouldnt otherwise try to do as town if thats your first and only read so far the only person i have a read on is you Accuses jingle of a scumslip.On July 17 2012 06:02 drwiggl3s wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 05:58 JingleHell wrote: With tube, I'm thinking the same way I was about Lazer. If they flip green, at least we don't have them hurting the town with their attitude. Is this.. a scum slip? You should always go for mafia. Lynching someone for being bad-town is a mistake. This is a noobie game after all. Points finger to obvious.660 (Town) and also tubeOn July 18 2012 03:36 drwiggl3s wrote: Deadline is soon approaching and we still aren't at a consensus.
Currently I think both tube and Obvious can be seen as scum. But the meta switch by tube (where he all of a sudden changed his tone, style, writing) seemed way too coached to have been his own doing.
A vote against Obviousis a decent one, but I gotta go with my gut here and think tube is the more "obvious" scum player.. Unless I can pull more reasoning out of why Obvious is mafia, I'll leave my vote where it is now.
##tube Throws FOS onto obvious.660 (Town) and YourHarry. On July 18 2012 05:09 drwiggl3s wrote: But I'll throw my FOS onto Obvious and Harry right now. Seems like there's too much panicing going on in this thread. Gives me a good feeling mafia is scrambling right now. And that gives me a good feeling one of these 3 are definitely mafia. He backtracks on the obvious.660 vote to cover his ass as he knows its going to flip TownOn July 18 2012 05:51 drwiggl3s wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 05:41 tube wrote: And why are you dismissing the accusations against Obvious as petty bandwagons, he hasn't even defended himself yet. Don't you think if he was really mafia.. He'd be here defending himself? is the case against him SO STRONG that he sees it as an imovable mountain that can never be overcome? If obvious was really mafia his scum buddies would be pressuring him to post. They would be defending him, or trying to push lynches even harder onto other players. The fact that he hasn't posted to defend himself, the fact that no one is strongly defending him, tells me that he's probably not mafia. Conjecture as to me or iamperfection being mafia and WIFOMOn July 20 2012 03:34 drwiggl3s wrote: I'm sorry Jingle but I really missed your breadcrumb as well and I've been steadily reading this thread.. so I'm not sure even with 3 mafia members that any of them actually caught it. And if they did, I don't agree with your speculations either. Throughout D1 and N1 you and Hap were arguing 50% of the time and spamming up the thread against each others post. Not saying this because you're both mafia, but it's definitely doing mafia's job for them. This is why I think neither of you were NK'ed.
As for Calgar, he was harsh pushing for iamperfection. Perhaps iamperfection is town and so mafia were happy to just let Calgar continue his case into D2? Or perhaps Calgar is the "obviously town acting" mafia scum you were talking about.
Either way, Mafia killed Evul. A lurker, who was going to be replaced. Netting us literally 0 information we can use, other than WIFOM.
For my reads right now, I wouldn't mind testing the waters with a Calgar lynch. Getting one of the major players out of the way and see what he flips. This could tell us a lot about iamperfection as well as others who are resistant (or soft defending) a Calgar lynch. He starts to lay the groundwork for himself to look good after a mislynch of HarryOn July 21 2012 02:44 drwiggl3s wrote: So basically your saying no real information comes out of a YourHarry lynch. We're shooting for a mafia and if we miss we're back to square one?
I'm just asking because I'm trying to link things together. Trying to see what we can pull out of this lynch should it be successful or not.. And I can't really see anything. I don’t think much beyond this is very useful since he’s trying to defend himself by arguing with jingle. His most coherent argument post is here:On July 21 2012 05:23 drwiggl3s wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 21 2012 04:29 JingleHell wrote:Since the beginning, drwiggl3s has lurked. Scummy. He's showed up in controversial moments to give us great pearls of wisdom. Like these. Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 05:46 drwiggl3s wrote:On July 17 2012 05:39 tube wrote: the points against me are that im being an active lurker and thats supposedly our best lynch how am i supposed to respond to that other than "i just felt like posting" because i didnt want to be inactive
from my point of view im not attracting suspicion to begin with Hmm.. Usually Mafia feel the need to post and "fit in" as they have an inherit sense of guilt. Do you think making non-productive posts makes you look more town? Seems like it has the opposite effect. I'd suggest you share some of your reads with us. What you think about other players etc. If you are town and really do want to get the heat of you.. If you're mafia than keep doing what your doing Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 08:53 drwiggl3s wrote:Glad you could join is Fulla In my experience (LVI) it seemed that the first lynch did not turn out to be scum. But that's just down to odds right.. However, one player who posted short reads, accusations, one liners (Bill Murray in that game) ended up being Mafia Boss and was shot N1. Food for thought I guess. Kind of hard to extrapolate good data or trends for D1. Truly food for thought. Day 1, he voted for Tube well after that dust had cleared. Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 03:42 drwiggl3s wrote:Ah ebwop Vote ##tubeOn July 18 2012 03:38 tube wrote: you're using the same argument that obvious backtracked on theres literally no difference between the way i was talking before and the way i am now except i use punctuation and capitalization how do you even get coached in mafia why does everyone keep suggesting this There was a huge difference. But since that post and everyone calling you out on it, YOU have since back tracked and modified your play and posting style to the way it was before. He visibly disassociated himself from the Obvious mislynch, which he seems to be capitalizing on now. Here, he makes a scummy statement about killing Calgar purely for the information. Show nested quote +On July 20 2012 03:34 drwiggl3s wrote:
For my reads right now, I wouldn't mind testing the waters with a Calgar lynch. Getting one of the major players out of the way and see what he flips. This could tell us a lot about iamperfection as well as others who are resistant (or soft defending) a Calgar lynch. And now his recent posting binge. Asking great questions, like what kind of info people might be able to glean from current situations once they resolve. Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 02:35 drwiggl3s wrote: Jingle since your leading this I want to ask you a question.
If YourHarry flips scum, what information do you think we will gain from that conclusion?
What if YourHarry flips town. What will be your opinion on Calgar, Hap, et all? And generally setting things up so that no matter how Harry flips, he's in a good position. Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 03:50 drwiggl3s wrote: Jingle I think you could be scum. Despite your Jailer breadcrumb / claim crap. But before I make a (possibly wrong) case, I want to see more information.
Since you're 95% sure that he's scum, I'm sure your comfortable with this. As tomorrow when he's lynched and flips scum I'll be able to believe your actually jailer. Thoughts? I'll be responding to the above case in points. 1) The "Pearls of Wisdom". Those were day 1 posts. I was trying to encourage others to talk, and to be helpful. There it's clear when I responded to Fulla's question regarding how often mafia actually get lynched day 1. The first post you quoted against tube was me trying to be constructive. Instead of calling him out for his scum slip saying that he "just felt like posting" I tried to explain why this makes him look scummy to us. And I encouraged him to share some reads with us to get more information out of him. Just because I don't post as much as you do doesn't mean I don't actively think out my posts and try to figure out what reaction I can expect from a player. So yes they are "Food for though" despite not spamming up an entire page like you need to. 2) I've already made it clear that I was tunnelling onto tube for his change of play style. I told you that I think people's reactions are a better determining factor of their alignment than their posting. I thought that tube was a better lynch due to his big change in play style once the heat was on. This over obvious who made some controversially possibly scum posts. Despite this being newbie mafia, I believe the mafia are still competent enough to not make obvious scum slips. And that it's only town (who naturally don't feel a sense of worry or guilt as much as mafia) to post more freely and make these "slips" you are even accusing me of. 3) My post on Calgar was to state I support his lynch. I however didn't follow it with a vote as their were already votes on him (I'll explain in next sentences). My reasoning for this was it was early in the day, and I wanted to see who came out of the woodwork to defend Calgar. For example, I was looking to see if a lurker came out to defend him with some off the wall case, or if someone else really tried pushing for someone else. The reason I didn't vote for him immediately was I didn't want it to seem that it was impossible to save him. If that was the case than a lurker who is mafia might not risk the exposure to save someone who is already likely to be lynched. 4) As far as "setting" stuff up goes. I wanted to make it clear that I am suspicious of you and that I was going for a Harry lynch not because I fully believe in the case against him, but because I think it'll shed light on the most active players in this game. Namely you. If he flipped town I was going to make a case on you D3 if you ended up as a "confirmed jailer" and yet STILL alive after N2. That was the point I was trying to make. I wasn't setting myself up to "look good" or trying to kill a confirmed townie. I was just saying that if you lead the lynch on a townie, you should be held at least somewhat accountable. And IF you survived N2 as a confirmed town / jailer, it'd make me VERY suspicious if that is your actual alignment. I hope this is satisfactory. But I'm up for follow up questions or anything else. Kkkaaaaayyy. So what, you want a cookie? I know how the filter button works. What does this information give us? I'm going through the filter to see what townies I can identify and I intend on posting my reads before I go to bed. Looks like I'm going to be giving you another look when I wake up tomorrow calgar. This is pretty funny considering what you then go on to post. I'll take a cookie, thanks. Do you really think something like this is suspicious when are also people in the game who aren't even bothering to read the thread? Maybe it was for them. I already asked about blocking KP at the beginning of the thread before roles were assigned so maybe that category of non-readers includes you. Why aren't you looking at reckless voting patterns instead of a single post like this when you said you were satisfied with my case like 8 posts ago?
I disagree with your dismissal of tube as a possibility. His play is too inconsistent. Does anyone even remember wiggles voting for tube? I certainly don't. It didn't attract any attention so it just got lost in the clutter. I think it was more of a planted easter egg. Also, early on tube expressed the need to 'post a lot' with 'no content' because he had no reads yet, in order to promote discussion. Where has he been lately? Why hasn't he consistently followed his stated goals? Way too suspicious to be removed from consideration just because of an off-hand vote he received. I don't like your reasoning here hopeless.
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On July 21 2012 08:53 Fulla wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:45 JingleHell wrote: Fulla and Tube, you really need to explain your votes. Simple, wiggles had more than enough votes so I just left it. I'd like to add I think hopeless if scum with him, I will post more on that tomorrow.
I more have the impression you bussed him, but without contributing your vote. Given you were around at the time, making posts like this one:
On July 21 2012 04:43 Fulla wrote: I REALLY dislike how many votes Harry is getting it just makes me think of an exact bandwagon repeat of the obvious lynch. If he was scum I'd at least expect a struggle other scum trying to defend him or accuse others. Or if not scum jumping in and bussing him for town cred.
As far as I know jingle is confirmed town? So I will just vote whatever he says. He's a much better player than me anyways.
I'm at work so I can't contribute much this is from my mobile. I'll be back 30 min before deadline for a better read and vote.
I still think my current vote is scum hopeless or hapless sorry I forgot? The guy trying to lynch me for nothing. But I'll back jingle.
Last thing the eerie silence about Harry getting lynched makes me think mafia are just sitting back laughing letting it happen. Can we vote someone else please?
That almost looks like a better version of what wiggles tried to do to me.
Of course, Tube also looks completely shady right now, as Hapa outlined.
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So since we all seem to be on the same page about Tube, howbout a Vigi kill? It seems like a pretty solid kill if we have a vigi, and we can get a confirmed townie out of the deal (vigi roleclaim).
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Hapa, what do you think about that directly contradictory posting by Fulla?
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On July 21 2012 23:51 Hapahauli wrote: So since we all seem to be on the same page about Tube, howbout a Vigi kill? It seems like a pretty solid kill if we have a vigi, and we can get a confirmed townie out of the deal (vigi roleclaim). Careful, you know where this got me last time around lol
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On July 21 2012 23:57 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 23:51 Hapahauli wrote: So since we all seem to be on the same page about Tube, howbout a Vigi kill? It seems like a pretty solid kill if we have a vigi, and we can get a confirmed townie out of the deal (vigi roleclaim). Careful, you know where this got me last time around lol
Last time around was N1, based on half the posts.
Besides, me going after you got me switched onto Harry, which dragged Wiggles out. Is that so bad since you weren't mislynched?
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On July 21 2012 23:57 JingleHell wrote: Hapa, what do you think about that directly contradictory posting by Fulla?
Can't tell if its bad-townie or mafia-oriented. He hasn't posted enough for me to make a read either way. If he continues with his low postcount (despite his earlier promises to do otherwise), he'll be my target of suspicion (after Tube of course).
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On July 21 2012 23:57 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 23:51 Hapahauli wrote: So since we all seem to be on the same page about Tube, howbout a Vigi kill? It seems like a pretty solid kill if we have a vigi, and we can get a confirmed townie out of the deal (vigi roleclaim). Careful, you know where this got me last time around lol
Oh noes D=
We do have 2 days of information this time around though, so I'm pretty comfortable with the vigi taking a shot on our body of information.
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Earlier on I thought tube was just a noob and being overly bashed for little reason. Considering his utter sudden silence and last second voting patterns as everyone else has pointed out I'm leaning more towards scum now.
Vigi kill, I thought there was a low chance of a vigi now? 2 blues I don't know what the usual blue count is, I recall someone saying in newb mafia there tends to be alot of greens.
Anyways, I guess Jingle will have to pray there's a medic or hopefully he'll guess and protect the right target.
SCUM I think it's tube & hopeless. (notice how hopeless is also trying to protect him).
I say vigi shoot/lynch tube, then me or hopeless in either order. I'm satisfied with that and we win.
Unless there are other suspects? Speedbump/Mufa can anything said about them/him?
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On July 22 2012 00:02 Fulla wrote: Earlier on I thought tube was just a noob and being overly bashed for little reason. Considering his utter sudden silence and last second voting patterns as everyone else has pointed out I'm leaning more towards scum now.
Vigi kill, I thought there was a low chance of a vigi now? 2 blues I don't know what the usual blue count is, I recall someone saying in newb mafia there tends to be alot of greens.
Anyways, I guess Jingle will have to pray there's a medic or hopefully he'll guess and protect the right target.
SCUM I think it's tube & hopeless. (notice how hopeless is also trying to protect him).
I say vigi shoot/lynch tube, then me or hopeless in either order. I'm satisfied with that and we win.
Unless there are other suspects? Speedbump/Mufa can anything said about them/him?
I think you should explain yourself before accusing others.
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I just did.
I gave my reasons about hopeless from the start, nobody seemed to care.
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On July 22 2012 00:27 Fulla wrote: I just did.
I gave my reasons about hopeless from the start, nobody seemed to care.
I mean explain what I just recently posted about, why YOU look scummy. You conveniently ignored it.
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On July 21 2012 23:49 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:53 Fulla wrote:On July 21 2012 08:45 JingleHell wrote: Fulla and Tube, you really need to explain your votes. Simple, wiggles had more than enough votes so I just left it. I'd like to add I think hopeless if scum with him, I will post more on that tomorrow. I more have the impression you bussed him, but without contributing your vote. Given you were around at the time, making posts like this one: Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 04:43 Fulla wrote: I REALLY dislike how many votes Harry is getting it just makes me think of an exact bandwagon repeat of the obvious lynch. If he was scum I'd at least expect a struggle other scum trying to defend him or accuse others. Or if not scum jumping in and bussing him for town cred.
As far as I know jingle is confirmed town? So I will just vote whatever he says. He's a much better player than me anyways.
I'm at work so I can't contribute much this is from my mobile. I'll be back 30 min before deadline for a better read and vote.
I still think my current vote is scum hopeless or hapless sorry I forgot? The guy trying to lynch me for nothing. But I'll back jingle.
Last thing the eerie silence about Harry getting lynched makes me think mafia are just sitting back laughing letting it happen. Can we vote someone else please? That almost looks like a better version of what wiggles tried to do to me. Of course, Tube also looks completely shady right now, as Hapa outlined.
I go mostly on gut feeling, not so much on reads. Not good I know sorry.
When you was going for Harry, I really wasn't liking it. In my gut it just didn't feel right I didn't feel he was scum. I urged you not to lynch him. Fortunately you changed.
When you brought the case against Wiggles It sat right with me, his actions, your case I agreed with everything. I brought a few points, he just said he refused to speak to me or you. Fair enough whatever.
I chose not to vote as I said it wouldn't have made a difference, but also I wanted it be clear that wiggles was not 100% going down. My keeping my vote off, it's gives scum that slight believe in a chance to save him.
Which were we saw tube suddenly jump in and put a vote on perfection. Now question, had I voted on wiggles immediately and it was looking 100% wiggles was a gonna. Would tube have done that, I don't think so.
So my actions I atleast believe contributed to catching tube. Thoughts???
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It's almost Saturday night I'm going out, probably be hugely hungover tomorrow. So I'll give a last case on why I think Tube & help are scum together.
I don't have much time, so no quotes sorry, but I'll outline my analogy, thoughts and whats generally going through my mind.
- The game starts off, tube begins getting heavily suspected. - I confess I myself thought people were over reacting. - Hopeless however goes even further way further he says give tube a day to sort himself out and starts heavily trying to get me suspected, in others words going after a 1 out of 4 lurker, (1 of which was a scum). Why so diligent on 1 guy? What about the other 3? - Not only that but he keeps implicating it further basically building a case out of nothing. Hoping others will latch on. - He was trying to divert attention from tube and get me suspects basically.
This is even worse in my eyes, which sealed the deal: - Next we have tube acting very suspiciously now. - The ONLY person who defends him again is Hopeless, he cleverly tried to make him a confirmed townie, along with Jingle and Calgar. Which if you believe that you'd probably hmm point maybe hopeless is town too?
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Anyways, I'm not as a stubborn idiot as I probably come across, if people can convince me hopeless is town I'd glady listen, but from my perspective everything he has done thus far has been scummy.
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On July 21 2012 06:21 tube wrote:yeah definitely that simple lol Can we get an explanation for your huge posting gap between the 18th and 21st?
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Relative periods of inactivity are not scumtells, they're quite frankly just times when someone doesn't feel like playing. A bandwagon on me doesn't tell the town anything because it was so easy for mafia to make me an attractive lynch, despite that the only thing I can be indicted for is inactivity.
I can't speak for hopeless or fulla but you guys are going to find some difficulty making sense of things when I flip town. Also, my vote on perfection reflects my confusion as to why the suspicion on him is suddenly cleared. Wiggles was undoubtedly going to be the d2 lynch anyway.
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