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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
Dnyarri is clearly #1 until he resurfaces with a convincing defence. My targets list for scum #3 is quite broad. Hence I'm going to wait and see if we ever get analysis out of anyone. Currently all we really have is Day_Walkers input which was almost identical to my posts at the end of night 1. I really want some other opinions. | ||
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Deleted User 323385
41 Posts
As it has become clear to you, I'm lurker (and thus hard to read) and I haven't brought useful analysis to table or asked good questions. I realize that my silence hurts town and it would have been better for everyone (from fun-perspective) if I were more active. I am deeply sorry for that. And I'm also sorry to inform that situation isn't going to change. However, I'd like to be at least somewhat useful before I'm lynched. I'm now going afk again, but I'd like you to ask me some questions (relatively simple please) that I could answer when I come back. I will read everything posted since night and I will try to anwers as many of questions as possible. I will not be giving long analysis or asking questions but I hope my answers will help at least little bit. I will be around here again tomorrow, answering questions before night and I'm going to vote of course. Sorry for my (still continuing) inactivity. | ||
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TheChyz
Canada238 Posts
##Vote: Dnyarri | ||
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TheChyz
Canada238 Posts
Question to dnyarri then: If you could lynch 2 people right now and be able to save 1 in the night, who would they be? | ||
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sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
I think scum shooting Jonny was motivated simply by removing a strong town player, although it also could very well have been an attempt to get the heat off of Derrida. I think shooting chinstrap would have been too obvious, because if town had a doctor the save would have most likely been put on the IC. So then I think their choices would have been me, Balla or Jonny. At that point Jonny had started his pressure on Derrida, and he had also almost orchestrated a flip onto dnyarri (more on that in a second). If Derrida and dnyarri are both scum, taking out Jonny would be a very obvious move. On the other hand, I had only just started to really suspect Derrida (before his post-lynch post, I was on the fence/slightly leaning scum), and I was also neutral on dnyarri. Balla was really hammering down hard on Derrida, but he had stated only soft suspicions on dnyarri and also had the 'FUCK OFF GUYS' quote just before the switch from tD to dnyarri. NK's can be played really WIFOM-y so I'm hesitant to read too much into NK's, especially the first one, but Occam's razor points to dnyarri as scum. Looking at dnyarri's filter, again I don't agree with the 'lynch a lurker' mentality, however I do think there's enough circumstantial evidence to point to him. That is, Derrida's strange lack of comment on dnyarri and Jonny's last-minute vote switch attempt. I just thought of something: Day_Walker and Big_Dad had voted for dnyarri previous to that. Jonny had suspicions on Big_Dad, and Day_Walker was already being targetted by several others and was the second/third candidate for the day 1 lynch. With Jonny dead, scum may have thought it would be possible to lay low again in Day 2 and watch town rip itself apart - and they probably weren't expecting Derrida to get shot. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
##vote: dnyarri | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
I have a few questions for Asuna: And oh, Jonny was town... well that's awkward. You said this in response to the NK. How is this more awkward than anyone else being killed? Who are your top scum reads now, and why? You were gone for the whole night phase, and have barely commented on it now that it's Day 2. You're borderline lurking here. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
dnyarri (6): chinstrap, Balla24, BigDad, sidesprang, TheChyz, suki Not voting (4): Asuna, onlywonderboy, dnyarri, Day_Walker Currently, dnyarri is set to be lynched. Deadline is Friday, Jan 10 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory! If there are errors, please let us know. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
OnlyWonderBoy I posted analysis on OWB after the lynch and came up on him as neutral. However, looking through everyone's filters I came upon his again and noticed that even though nothing looks particularly scummy to me, nothing looked particularly town as well. So I went diving. I brought up his two most recent games to try to get a feel for his play style. In one he was mafia, in the other he was vigilante. In both games, he didn't post a lot, and in both games he is somewhat cautious. As blue, OWB: Was more direct and assertive Sympathized with newbie play As mafia (his most recent game), OWB: made excuses a lot targetted lurkers followed the flow of the town rather than pushing his own reads OWB's play this game is somewhat in the middle of the two. However, what stands out to me is that he is really going along with the flow of the town. He hasn't been assertive, and hasn't pushed any reads. Rather, he seems cautious even when he says he is fine with lynching someone: In terms of other possible scum players, I'm of course suspicious of dnyarri like a lot of players now. Really hope he shows up so we get some sort of insight on his play. Don't have any other solid scum reads right now so I guess my main focus is on dnyarri and Day_Walker. If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear, but he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way. If they were both scum it's unlikely he would be defending him so vehemently. OWB has persistently been trying to push Derrida's play as bad townie over scummy. I didn't see anything particularly off about that, but given Derrida's flip there's an argument to be made that a scum OWB was hoping to be able to save Derrida from a Day 2 lynch. I almost let OWB get cleared in my mind for the day due to his last-minute switch antics, but thinking on it more, even if the switch went through and dnyarri was scum, scum OWB still could claim massive town cred from it. It could have been a calculated risk as there were only a few minutes before the end of the day and a good chance that not enough people were on to make it happen. So I'm going to say that the fact that he tried to switch is completely non-indicative of alignment regardless of what dnyarri is. I'm not seeing the directness of blue OWB's play in this game, and he seems to be more following the flow of the town than trying to contribute. Based on his previous games, I think he reads more scum than town to me at this point and should be looked at closer by everyone else. | ||
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
He won't know what people's alignments are but he will initially try to protect the scummiest looking players, while also playing cautious and not making waves so that he can avoid being lynched or NK'd. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On January 10 2014 01:40 chinstrap wrote: Are protects/roleblocks notified to the doctors/reloblocker, the person hit/protected/roleblocked, or both? Doctor is notified of a successful protect. The target is not notified. Roleblocker is not notified. The target is notified of being blocked. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
I'm just going with the simplest answer atm, Occam's Razor. I also find it very very unlikely that if scum have an RB they didn't use it unless they have a super competent coach and had no blue reads. That's fine. We will find out. For the meantime, I'm considering Asuna conf. town. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
People if you're town you NEED to contribute, otherwise there's no chance that we can win. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
On January 10 2014 01:50 Balla24 wrote: I think if dnyarri is scum then that is alignment indicative of OWB; he almost got him lynched! Agreed, we can worry about OWB another day. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
What I'm saying is that OWB's play has not been very pro-town, and if dnyarri flips red that shouldn't just give him a green pass for the rest of the game. | ||
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
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