So you're not asking about that post specifically but more about his general feeling? Cause it's pretty clear from that case he just posted that it is 100% dependent on Derrida's relationship with them and I don't see how you are missing that.

Balla24

2322 Posts

January 09 2014 05:45 GMT

#902

Went through everybody's filter here are my notes on who I would write off due to their interactions with derrida. Obviously this is not anything super concrete, but it's a start. I'm not confirming anybody in my mind as town or mafia, because its relatively easy for scum to fake interactions with their partners, but it's also NOT something they think about too hard when its their first scum game.

Some of these might be really weak connections or non-connections, so ask me if you come to a different conclusion and I'll try to clarify.

would not write off:
-owb
-day_walker
-bigdad
-dynyarri

people I would write as town due to their interaction with derrida:
-chyz
-sidesprang
-suki

plus conf towns (asuna is subject to change based on if anybody brings up new night action details)
- asuna
- chinstrap
- me

VOTES
derrida stayed on dragoon the entire time
-owb swapped to DNYARRI
-day_walker never got onto dragoon, voted for DNYARRI
-bigdad swapped to DAY_WALKER
-dnyarri stayed

Therefore, my top suspects atm are dnyarri and bigdad. Looking more into bigdad now since I'm policy lynching dnyarri.

Balla24

2322 Posts

January 09 2014 06:11 GMT

#903

Comrades! Just because we have found one white conspirator infiltrators does not mean can become complacent! Must still be vigilante in order to wipe out white conspirators within ranks! Have to report here all rumors and concerns as much as possible to find rest. (read in whitera voice)

Seriously where my town at?

LoneMeow

Finland1396 Posts

January 09 2014 07:36 GMT

#904

Day 2 vote count:

dnyarri (3): chinstrap, Balla24, BigDad

Not voting (7): Asuna, TheChyz, onlywonderboy, dnyarri, sidesprang, Day_Walker, suki

Currently, dnyarri is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Friday, Jan 10 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory!

If there are errors, please let us know.

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 09:08 GMT

#905

I'm at work so I can't really do too much until this evening.

A huge amount has happened in the last 24 hours. Lots to think about. I don't understand how we had so much talk about nothing Day 1 and so much silence now when there is bucket loads to analyse!

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 09:11 GMT

#906

Also I would not put too much faith in the Asuna roleblock claim.

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 09:25 GMT

#907

By that I mean:

1: Theres isn't 100% a roleblocker
2: Roleblocker may have not used his action

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 09:26 GMT

#908

While there are issues with both of those points, it is enough to keep asuna off a confirmed town list imo

probuLing

United States75 Posts

January 09 2014 09:27 GMT

#909

@Balla What makes me confirmed town?

On January 09 2014 18:11 chinstrap wrote:
Also I would not put too much faith in the Asuna roleblock claim.

Hmm, suit yourself, but I was role blocked.

sidesprang

Norway1033 Posts

January 09 2014 11:40 GMT

#910

I think Balla just assumed the roleblocker had to be mafia, but town can have one aswell. So that should not make you confirmed.

But atleast, If there are a town roleblocker I think you should roleblock Asuna again just on the odd chance he is SK.

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 11:43 GMT

#911

If asuna was SK and tried to shoot someone would the RB have been notified he tried to shoot?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 09 2014 12:07 GMT

#912

@BigDad
If dnyarri is not scum, then my theory that Derrida skipped over Asuna and dnyarri because they were scum mates is wrong. If you take that away, I have Asuna on the list of people who could easily be scum but I'm not really sure. So in the interest of being honest, I need to retract my "I would be happy to lynch either one" statement. Right now dnyarri is my number one choice and Asuna is my number two choice, but I think dnyarri is a much better lynch target and in fact I would not be happy with an Asuna lynch.

About Asuna's role claim:
When I read it, I thought of these two scenarios:
1) Asuna is townie blocked by scum
2) scum have no blocker, Asuna is scum and knows that nobody was blocked, Asuna claims the block for cred

Of course town could have a blocker too (I think. Yes?), so theoretically two people could have been blocked, which makes case 2 a bit less convincing to me (it wasn't guaranteed that Asuna would be the only person claiming a block, even if Asuna knew there was no scum blocker.

Anyway I feel like I can't read too much into Asuna's block claim and inclined to agree with chinstrap that Asuna does not belong on any confirmed town list.

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 12:21 GMT

#913

So DW Summed up my initial feelings about the role claim right there.

However, after giving it more thought:

'TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)'

Is the only remaining scenario without a roleblocker.

This would mean Asuna had to be the godfather and dnyarri has to be TWON for DW scenario 2 to be true. I find that highly unlikly

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 12:23 GMT

#914

So the only scenario is the one DW missed.

There IS a mafia role blocker, but they didnt roleblock anyone. Allowing Asuna a free roleblock claim to apear confirmed town. Again, pretty convoluted but within the relms of posisbility.

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 12:25 GMT

#915

Either way. It is what it is. Scenarios exist where this is a fake roleclaim, discussing it further is just going to be pointless speculation.

sidesprang

Norway1033 Posts

January 09 2014 12:46 GMT

#916

Yeh reading the last posts atm just makes me more confused about what really can be the case, and I dont think we should give asuna any creds nor deem him more sucpicious atm. But with some more flips later we can hopefully get back to this and either confirm him or not.

One point I have not seen brought up yet. Is the KP, I kinda assumed that there was gonna be 2 KP, either by mafia having 2 or 1 from mafia and 1 from SK. But since there were only one scum kill and no one discussed the possibility that they could have 2 and that we had a medic save or RB or whatever kinda leads me to believe they only have 1. Can anyone confirm to me that 1 KP is the norm in this setup?

And another point, why are we excluding 6T's, on the link it seems like innocent child is a green role and not a power role. So dont we only have 1 confirmed blue at this point, And that will make 6T's possible ?

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 12:48 GMT

#917

IC is a blue role

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 12:53 GMT

#918

Also the sample mafia goon PM makes it appear that mafia KP is 1:

You are a member of the White Movement, resisting the Bolshevik revolution.
Abilities:
Factional communication: You may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Factional kill: Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.

chinstrap

United Kingdom253 Posts

January 09 2014 12:57 GMT

#919

So unless a serial killer is laying low and not shooting (not a terrible plan) one does not exist. Again I would not drawn difinitive conclusions about a SK over the night actions

sidesprang

Norway1033 Posts

January 09 2014 13:21 GMT

#920

K, thanks. Then we should be in a very good position imo.

I'm trying to read into Derrida's filter, and I think Day_Walker also comes out more town from it. I doubt a he would buddy up like he did in the first post if Day_Walker was scum. I think it would be more an attempt to pocket him than anything else.

Also when reading Derrida's first post, he fails to mention both Asuna and Dnyarri. I have only read up on Dnyarri atm, but I really can not understand how you can fail to mention Dnyarri in a list like he made. He had only posted two post by that time.

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 06 2014 20:05 dnyarri wrote:
I think TheChyz is suspicious. First he says (s)he wants so lynch lurkers anyway. When people started to suspect him/her (s)he said that (s)he did it on purpose to catch bandwagoners. Bandwagons however give lurkers easy targets which seems contradicts his/her original agenda of lynching lurkers.

Also, TheChyz has only brought confusion and only potentially useful analysis (s)he has brought to table is against Day_Walker who was attacking TheChyz with the list. It appears more like TheChyz is trying to save his/her skin. Though I think Day_Walker is suspicious because of the list, I find TheChyz more suspicious and I don't believe that as a scum Day_Walker would attack another scums this early.

##Vote: TheChyz

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 06 2014 23:43 dnyarri wrote:
Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&currentpage=16#316

TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.

TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.

##unvote
##vote: TheDragoon

In two posts, Dnyari votes for two different people. And his posts looks rather fishy to me. With posts like those two how can you not mention Dnyarri in a list like that. Unless you had a reason not to.

That coupled with derrida trying to prevent us from lynching lurkers, and in essence to save dnyarri makes me believe there is a high chance dnyarri is scum.

##Vote Dnyarri