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On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though.
1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy.
2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment.
Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player.
3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell.
Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.
4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.
All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.
##Vote: CatsNHats
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On January 10 2012 10:33 Probulous wrote:
I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios.
On January 10 2012 10:54 Probulous wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 10 2012 10:19 Paperscraps wrote:
Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy. . He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump. In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker. See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave.
On January 10 2012 12:26 Probulous wrote:
@Blurry Thanks for your mildly amusing expose on Cats. Whilst it doesn't add anything new it is a nice summary of Cats wishy-washy play. However, sheeping is NOT a point in your favour. Don't do it. You can start by giving me your case on who the third mafia is. Assume Cats is scum, who is his last buddy and why.
On January 10 2012 13:07 Probulous wrote:
@BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks!
On January 10 2012 13:50 Probulous wrote:
That is why I say your play has improved.
Your gambit was terrible and created all sorts of mayhem, I hate it when people use passive aggressive stuff to gain emotional leverage. So yeah, no problem seeing you lynched. It is not meant as a personal thing, play better next time. I would happy to have another game with you.
Anyway, are we the only one's reading the thread?
On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.
The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.
In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.
I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.
Show me what you got!
I understand being open to every possibility, but WHAT THE HELL Probu? This is a very surprising change from you this quickly. I do agree that he has picked up on his play, but enough to be your new bestest buddy? I am not even going to be wtf at Cats, I'm going to look WTF at you.
You ask him to provide a case on Blurry and/or question your analysis. He does NEITHER.
Instead he makes a case against da Lurker. How hard is that? I'll give that it's the best thing he's TRIED so far, but you are giving up on him way too easily not providing enough reasoning. Or is there some reason why you are very sure that Sheth could have set him up?
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent ![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51Pp9Bilr1L._SL500_AA300_.jpg) A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:On January 04 2012 23:40 Tunkeg wrote:
Looks like the only one I will get to discuss with is me, myself and I.
For Gretorp and Xeris please post before I give you both (imaginary) NASaL fractures... I am no lynch all lurkers fAnatic, but for now I will be more then happy voting for anyone of you unless you start contributing. So tag, gretorp you're it:
##Vote Gretorp Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG + Show Spoiler +What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity. On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me.
Come on ._. These 5 posts have been analysed all over, and now days later you are giving your opinion on them? I called you out for the fact that you had asked Gretorp to post, but then dropped it. Then you tried to pretend you hadn't forgot about it. And now you think it's scummy that he promised but dropped it? He got replaced for a reason. Why can't you be consistent?!?! I think you've been a dog in a leash for others this whole game. First Probu, then Sheth, now Probu...
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. [spoiler] Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor.  I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Hey all, just got home from school. Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.
We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry##Vote: PaperscrapsI look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.
I approve you for making the continuing the case on Paperscraps, looks better than what you started on with Gretorp. What I don't like however is that you are totally skipping on some things that I've done, I'm not sure if you just haven't noticed or are you leaving it out on purpose to make me look worse. I hope it's the first.
On January 11 2012 07:37 Probulous wrote:
Fair point. So which one? Given that Cats is actively participating and providing analysis I am happy to leave him today. Even if we assume he is mafia (I'm not sure) there is someone else and I agree that it he is either Gretorp/Paperscraps or Xeris/kronhjort.
Okay, let's assume that Cats is not mafia. Are you that certain on yourself that you will find the rest of the mafia today? If we mislynch today, and the mafia gets a night-kill through, we're in MYLO tomorrow, assuming they will get the N4 night-kill through also. I don't like how easily you are happy to leave him today just because he actively participates and ... provides analysis to some extent I guess. AND STILL HE KEEPS CHANGING HIS GODDAMN MIND ALL THE TIME, HOW IS THAT HELPING US?
Another reason why I don't like the idea of lynching someone else unless we are suddenly really sure:
Cats has already claimed that he is not a blue. If there are blues in the game, it is possible that we hit a blue if we mislynch. IF Cats actually happens to be a townie, we at least haven't hit a possible blue.
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?
Or
We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?
Remember what you said earlier. The first bolded is just as likely as the latter, but somehow you are suddenly very certain it's the last choice. You don't even seem to have checked up on Gonz. (I admit, I haven't posted anything on him yet either since I'm still re-reading his filter, trying to make sure I don't miss anything.) It's most likely that Gonz is town, but it doesn't hurt to double-check at this point does it?
On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!!
Just one question. Why have you been taking Probulous for granted this whole game?
As it stands now, I would still like to see Cats lynched, unless someone provides me with a convincing case against someone else, or that I find something even more scummier than Cats myself. Call me out for still pushing for him if you want, but I've been doing it since N1 started. I think you've let him off too easily.
I am open for the possibility I am wrong in Cats's case though, but at the moment I am finding it extremely unlikely, so until someone else provides me a better target:
##Vote: CatsnHats
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@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former.
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He he, thanks Ceph.
Ok, time to come clean. I know my play over the last day or so has been, how shall I say this, bad! My problem is that I would feel really bad for Cats if he was town because unlike others he has actually tried this game. Plus he was a little upset at me calling him terrible.
I pushed my case day 1 and was horribly wrong, but then again so was everyone else. Day 2 I push my cased again, really hard and was right, but no-one was really offering counter arguments (except Jistu). I lost confidence today in my scum hunting abilities and wanted some contributions from others that I could read. I am still in two minds about Cats, I can't tell if he is just really bad town.
If I can't make up my mind about Cats, that means the only option I have to find scum is to look elsewhere. Maybe it was a stupid plan, it was certainly not the most logical, but I felt I owed Cats something in return for his obvious commitment to this game.
Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch.
The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere.
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On January 11 2012 13:05 Probulous wrote:
Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch.
I would feel bad as well if he was town, I had this concern earlier on as well. More and more I seem to be leaning towards scum on Cats. He has been back and forth and changing his mind constantly. A pretty strong tell for scum. If anything odds are in our favor with this lynch. Ceph and Prob strong town. Bk and Gonz slight town. Xeris is a non-factor for now. Blurry slightly scummy(this depending on the current lynch of Cats). Cats strong scum read. That leaves me as well, but I don't really know how the majority read me yet.
Blurry voting up Cats could be his redemption though.
The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere.
I wouldn't feel bad either Prob, you didn't start this wagon!
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On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Show nested quote +Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Show nested quote +Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Show nested quote +Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats
Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined.
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On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former.
Yeah, I understand that you wanted to analyze them both to keep the case whole. It may be just me since I've gone through Gretorp's posts enough times to find nothing new that I just started thinking why do you even need to bring them up again, but to keep your case full and to keep your analysis as convincing as possible, I see your point. If you didn't even try there it would look more sheepish.
"Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player."
This, I think it's quite obvious that I have questioned Sheth.... And there was another line too but I can't seem to find it.
I haven't provided my thoughts on Paperscraps, but I do have an opinion about him. I will probably post them slightly later, I want to see a few more reactions of him. If that doesn't happen, I'll pressure him and force him to respond.
I know that you came up into the same conclusion as Prob, but I was kind of hoping since you made an analysis on Paperscraps too, that you would have analysed Blurry a bit more in-depth post-by-post if you felt that he was town. I slightly got the feeling that you took up someone else just to confuse everyone and get attention further somewhere again.
I agree with you that Prob is town, at least for now, but I just want to make sure that everyone doesn't take that for granted. In the case he would be mafia, he would've had almost all of us like a dog in his leash, easily getting close to winning the game alone.
On January 11 2012 13:05 Probulous wrote:
He he, thanks Ceph.
Ok, time to come clean. I know my play over the last day or so has been, how shall I say this, bad! My problem is that I would feel really bad for Cats if he was town because unlike others he has actually tried this game. Plus he was a little upset at me calling him terrible.
I pushed my case day 1 and was horribly wrong, but then again so was everyone else. Day 2 I push my cased again, really hard and was right, but no-one was really offering counter arguments (except Jistu). I lost confidence today in my scum hunting abilities and wanted some contributions from others that I could read. I am still in two minds about Cats, I can't tell if he is just really bad town.
If I can't make up my mind about Cats, that means the only option I have to find scum is to look elsewhere. Maybe it was a stupid plan, it was certainly not the most logical, but I felt I owed Cats something in return for his obvious commitment to this game.
Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch.
The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere.
Okay, I understand what you mean in your first paragraph. This is certainly a very mind-intensive game and it's really hard to not get too emotional in this. You should've just known how I felt the first day after your pressure, but I'll have to thank you for that. If it wasn't for that, I would've probably continued to play much more wishy-washily. Your case made me understand how hard it is to be under pressure, and after all the effort I spent to defend myself as townie, I knew that pressure if something would make the scum do mistakes. So that's why my play stepped up quite a bit (at least in my opinion it has).
I do agree it is a good idea to check into others though, even if we would end up lynching Cats today. Since we still need to find the third scum, and in the case that Cats is town, we have to find two scum. So obviously there's someone slipping under our radar for the moment. Let's make sure that won't last for long.
I hope I didn't come out as too strict, I definitely understand your points, but this is a game which I want to win. And we're like halfway done. Just keep up the concentration now and we will make it till the end, lynching the rest of the scum.
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On January 11 2012 08:18 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. . On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth. You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start". So can you tell me wtf this is? You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie. It isn't actually, in his first post he says " Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell" which does say he thinks he is more likely town than mafia but doesn't specifically state he is not suspicious of Sheth. I think Cats is more likely town than mafia but that doesn't meant I am not suspicious of him. Even if you disregard the semantics, the question is simple, is this scum motivated? If so how does it support a scum case. My only thinking is that it is an attempt to gain town credit by bussing Sheth early. He would get that credit whether he had been suspicious from the start or not. The "lie" really tells us nothing. There is some stuff here that doesn't say anything then
Saying "Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum" is, firstly, so wishy washy it's not even funny.
To say that is a "suspicion from the start", is a HUGE stretch.
Like you say, it's such a huge stretch that it can be used to justify a bus.
Actually, this convinces me even more he's scum.
He just makes a super fluffy read on Sheth, so he can use it later to justify himself.
Also, nothing in his read of Sheth implied he's suspicious of him
Let's check it out.
On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum.
Is this suspicion?
That's a logical OR; there's no analysis, there's no personal opinion, it's nothing.
It's the same as saying "He's either scum or town", it's a tautology that doesn't show anything. Saying that is a "suspicion" is indeed a lie.
Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories.
Where's the suspicion in this? He's defending him for christ's sake, this is the opposite of suspicion.
If you take the "Right now, I'm feeling...." line out, what do you think of this "read"? Do you think it's a suspicion or could even be seen as one?
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I'll preface this with "I know this is a stupid idea but"
I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth.
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me.
In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined.
1. I don't really get how posting my initial feel and stance on the town leads to you thinking I am scum. I posted, because I didn't want people to think they had another lurker/inactive ruining the game for them.
2. As for your analysis of Blurry:
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more.
I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha.
3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis.
4. I had suspicion of you long before you voted me up, this isn't retaliation or OMGUS. I don't know what WIFOM hypothetical you are talking about either.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former.
I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm
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On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote:
I'll preface this with "I know this is a stupid idea but"
I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth.
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me.
In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision.
If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me.
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On January 11 2012 13:35 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 08:18 Probulous wrote:On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. . On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth. You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start". So can you tell me wtf this is? You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie. It isn't actually, in his first post he says " Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell" which does say he thinks he is more likely town than mafia but doesn't specifically state he is not suspicious of Sheth. I think Cats is more likely town than mafia but that doesn't meant I am not suspicious of him. Even if you disregard the semantics, the question is simple, is this scum motivated? If so how does it support a scum case. My only thinking is that it is an attempt to gain town credit by bussing Sheth early. He would get that credit whether he had been suspicious from the start or not. The "lie" really tells us nothing. There is some stuff here that doesn't say anything then Saying "Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum" is, firstly, so wishy washy it's not even funny. To say that is a "suspicion from the start", is a HUGE stretch. Like you say, it's such a huge stretch that it can be used to justify a bus. Actually, this convinces me even more he's scum. He just makes a super fluffy read on Sheth, so he can use it later to justify himself. Also, nothing in his read of Sheth implied he's suspicious of himLet's check it out. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Is this suspicion? That's a logical OR; there's no analysis, there's no personal opinion, it's nothing. It's the same as saying "He's either scum or town", it's a tautology that doesn't show anything. Saying that is a "suspicion" is indeed a lie. Show nested quote +Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Where's the suspicion in this? He's defending him for christ's sake, this is the opposite of suspicion. If you take the "Right now, I'm feeling...." line out, what do you think of this "read"? Do you think it's a suspicion or could even be seen as one?
Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth. Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p
Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work!
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Australia8532 Posts
In my short time playing this game i learnt it is not worth it to waste a lynch on someone that is likely to get modkilled. It isn't worth the peace of mind since if his inactivity continues, greymist will do the deed for us :p
Ok i feel like this is devolving into YOU ACCUSED ME, SO NOW I AM GOING TO ACCUSE YOU!
So this may seem like old/obvious information, but i feel like it will put us on track
Player List
AnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow
Cephiro
Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort
Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps
Gonzaw
Blurry
Probulous
CatsnHats
So basically from the above list there are 8 players left in the game. From that list we have 2 mafia remaining after the lynch on Sheth. That means we have 25% chance to lynch correctly based off ZERO reads or analyses.
If we use common assumptions and reads into it (without personal bias) we have the following;
Player List
AnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow
Cephiro (town vibe)
Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort
Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps
Gonzaw (probably town)
Blurry
Probulous (probably town)
CatsnHats
That means there are 2 mafia in a remaining 5 players; that is a 40% chance to lynch correctly. If we factor in personal bias i.e. i know that i am town, it increases to a 50% chance to lynch correctly. So from
Kronhjort
Paperscraps
Blurry
CatsnHats
2 are most likely mafia, from my perception of the game so far, and 2 are most likely town. If we minus Kronhjort for being a lame ass nonposterino we get left with 3 people. If Kron is mafia, we have a 1/3 chance. So now it is time to compare the cases for Paperscraps, Blurry and CatsnHats - ONE OF YOU WILL BE LYNCHED, THE QUESTION IS WHICH ONE?
Case against CatsinHats:
1
2
3
Case against Paperscraps
1
Case against Blurry
1
I am suggest to everyone, as i will be doing myself, to read very carefully through these posts before the deadline and come to a majority decision to ensure a lynch.
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On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote:
I'll preface this with "I know this is a stupid idea but"
I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth.
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me.
In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision.
I know it's fucking over the town now, but don't forget he will get modkilled today for sure. Most likely at the same time as the lynch. (If we get one that is, we need 5/8 (basically 5/7 because Kronhjort/Xeris is totally out)) So I don't think we should waste a lynch on him, since if he is red, he will flip that in the modkill.
You are right that Cats is picking up his game even though not in the same pace and in a different way. And I agree with you on Gonz. Not that sure about Blurry.
On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me.
The same for you, no point in killing Xeris since he will be modkilled at lynch, I am quite sure.
Is there anyone else than Cats you would vote for today? I want to see all the possibilities for today's lynch.
@ Cats: Give me a list of the persons you are willing to vote for today. (Based on your current opinion.)
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Australia8532 Posts
DISCLAIMER: I don't think i am very good at maths >< so feel free to call me out for stupidity :p
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@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris.
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STUPIDITY!
Just kidding.
Voting tally so far
CatsnHats (3) - Blurry, Paperscraps, Cephiro
Blurry (1) - Gonzaw
Paperscraps (1) - CatsnHats
If I had to make up mind right this instant I would lynch Paperscraps but I am not going to place my vote down yet because I am nowhere near certain of that. I will reread the thread and everyone's analysis again before making up my mind. We still have time.
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On January 11 2012 14:01 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth.
Why would you assume that?
How is it even a "sophisticated plan"?
Shit, let's recap the "sophisticated plan":
1)Make a wishy-washy read on one of his scumbuddies
2)When his scumbuddy has a chance to be lynched, bus him
3)As for the reasons for doing it, just say that your previous wishy-washy read was a suspicion on him
(1) Isn't even part of any "plan", it's just a regular scum behaviour of "not being sure" about your scumbuddies, in case you need to bus or defend them later on, and so you don't have to pressure them, talk to them, or have anything to do with them in the thread
(2)Seems pretty straightforward, I don't need to explain to you why scum would bus each other when one has the chance of being lynched, right?
(3)If this is "sophisticated" I'll eat my own ass. It's the easiest way for him to not make an effort in thinking up reasons to bus him. Actually it's stupid too, since eventually someone is bound to reread that and search for that "suspicion from the start" and figure out it's a bunch of fluff.
Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p
.....what?
You want me to "tell you a story"?
Do I have to make wild speculations about "what they may have thought" or some shit?
What's the point? I am not here to entertain you guys. I won't start my posts with cute images, or format my posts like a book or something, or "tell stories" or whatever you mean. If I do that I waste time doing something unnecessary.
Also, what do you mean "where's the scum motivation"?
Isn't "be wishy washy about your scumbuddy so you don't pay attention to him, then bus him to gain town cred" enough?
Isn't all that sheeping and regurgitation to lynch a townie (cookie/tea) without actually making an effort enough?
Isn't all that "I'll emulate how other players post", and "I'm following my gut" to strip away any responsability and pressure from him enough?
Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work!
I think I expanded enough.
I already pointed out almost all communication between them (I may have left some bussing from Sheth out though, but all of that can be generalised with the single post I showed).
So, what do I have to "expand"? Why can't you do that on your own?
Sorry for the aggresiveness, but....really?
Why are you so sure Blurry is town?
Also, why don't you let him defend himself? You are acting like his babysitter or something, if he's pressured let him react to it goddammit!
Your play has been very weird lately Prob, shit.
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On January 11 2012 14:11 bkrow wrote:In my short time playing this game i learnt it is not worth it to waste a lynch on someone that is likely to get modkilled. It isn't worth the peace of mind since if his inactivity continues, greymist will do the deed for us :p Ok i feel like this is devolving into YOU ACCUSED ME, SO NOW I AM GOING TO ACCUSE YOU! So this may seem like old/obvious information, but i feel like it will put us on track Player ListAnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw Blurry Probulous CatsnHats So basically from the above list there are 8 players left in the game. From that list we have 2 mafia remaining after the lynch on Sheth. That means we have 25% chance to lynch correctly based off ZERO reads or analyses. If we use common assumptions and reads into it (without personal bias) we have the following; Player ListAnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro (town vibe) Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw (probably town) Blurry Probulous (probably town) CatsnHats That means there are 2 mafia in a remaining 5 players; that is a 40% chance to lynch correctly. If we factor in personal bias i.e. i know that i am town, it increases to a 50% chance to lynch correctly. So from Kronhjort Paperscraps Blurry CatsnHats 2 are most likely mafia, from my perception of the game so far, and 2 are most likely town. If we minus Kronhjort for being a lame ass nonposterino we get left with 3 people. If Kron is mafia, we have a 1/3 chance. So now it is time to compare the cases for Paperscraps, Blurry and CatsnHats - ONE OF YOU WILL BE LYNCHED, THE QUESTION IS WHICH ONE? Case against CatsinHats: 123Case against Paperscraps 1Case against Blurry 1I am suggest to everyone, as i will be doing myself, to read very carefully through these posts before the deadline and come to a majority decision to ensure a lynch.
I agree that lynching Xeris is stupid, but I would rather lynch him that lynch nobody at all.
This is all fine and dandy Bk, but you have to form an opinion of your own! Post like these don't add anything we don't already know. Who are you leaning towards? Where do you stand?
Also, you aren't out of the picture as well. 
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On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote:
@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris.
This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris
"If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me"
Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote 
What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance.
Pick up your game.
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EPT
