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On January 22 2014 10:12 VisceraEyes wrote:Here's something that I still find off about Foolish's reentry post. Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 07:19 Foolishness wrote:The thing with VE is that yes, on his own some of his posts are suspicious. This one in particular made me raise an eyebrow: + Show Spoiler +On January 22 2014 01:16 VisceraEyes wrote:
Morning guys. Marv no, I don't think it's the same kind of Prome that I'm used to seeing. What it reminds me of is that game I was the mayor and lynched the piss out of Prome D1. He was a lurky little shit that game, but I caught him on something very similar to what I noticed this game. Like I think it's awful that I have to ask this, but did you read my post on him?
That being said, I at least dig one of his targets. I asked Foolish about his thoughts on this same matter and what I got is "lol you and Hapa townies" which is definitely NOT what I was after. He answered my question as if he'd read the exchange between us, but left me with a feeling that he hadn't actually read anything at all.
If I see one more person say they're going to ignore my posts, I won't be responsible for the outcome. You have been warned. However I think if you just read through his filter and analyze it as a whole there's nothing to be afraid of. Is he pushing any sort of mafia agenda? No. Does it feel like he doesn't have the town's best interest in mind? No. Does it feel like he's actually trying to figure things out? Yes. This is where he explains his super townread of me right? But look at the bolded bit. He's criticizing me asking marv about my Prom post and the part where I share my observation about our interaction, but says that the TOWNIE bit is the last two sentences, the "fluffy" angry nonsense at the end. Like, I'm trying to wrap my head around this. He thinks I'm town, presumably he knows that I share at least Promethelax as a scumread, but he tries to lightly discredit me while calling me townie? And after the entire post, I STILL don't know if he actually READ my post on Promethelax. Something doesn't add up. I'm missing something, somewhere.
He called what I said 'forced,' too.
It's a weak buzzword imo that only serves as you said to lightly discredit somebody. It has no 'meat' to it, no evidence of foul play and is part of the reason why I really didn't like his return post.
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On January 22 2014 10:06 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 10:02 Hapahauli wrote:
Holy, can we start talking about your scumreads? I literally have no idea where you stand on me or anyone else. I would love to do this but it's 1am so i will elaborate on EVERYTHING when i wake up (even if it means knocking out my gf so i can use her pc)
You can't take 5 minutes to give us one read?
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I mean, if he'd provided some context with it that would be one thing.
"It looks forced, as if he didn't have anything to say but felt like he had to say something"
or
"It looks out of place, as if he remembered he hadn't mentioned X and just threw it in there because he was expected to"
or something like that. But just saying those words is pretty silly, especially when you're talking about one of your strongest townreads, you know?
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So VE, WOS, is Foo's entrance the Return of the Jedi, or the Revenge of the Sith?
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Good things and bad things happened in both of those movies. What are you asking gonzaw? I still find Foolishness a little suspicious, but think that Prome is a better lynch right now.
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And since people appear to be ignoring me, I'm just going to keep tossing shit out there until something sticks.
Kita I need to go back and look at the games I've played with you. I dislike regarding meta primarily as a rule, but I can't remember if you play all your games by incessant questioning and seemingly 'starting shit.' I know you're capable of well-formed cases as either alignment but I really wish I could see one right now. So much of your filter is just questions; I don't know what you're building towards at all, and it bothers me.
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On January 22 2014 10:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
Good things and bad things happened in both of those movies. What are you asking gonzaw? I still find Foolishness a little suspicious, but think that Prome is a better lynch right now.
Dunno, it sounded good in my head
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On January 22 2014 10:19 WaveofShadow wrote:
And since people appear to be ignoring me, I'm just going to keep tossing shit out there until something sticks.
Kita I need to go back and look at the games I've played with you. I dislike regarding meta primarily as a rule, but I can't remember if you play all your games by incessant questioning and seemingly 'starting shit.' I know you're capable of well-formed cases as either alignment but I really wish I could see one right now. So much of your filter is just questions; I don't know what you're building towards at all, and it bothers me.
I'm not ignoring you bbygrl, you need something specific?
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On January 22 2014 10:17 gonzaw wrote:
So VE, WOS, is Foo's entrance the Return of the Jedi, or the Revenge of the Sith?
As I've said, I probably need to talk to him to be sure. His initial return post left a bad taste in my mouth because the case on me felt extremely weak and dare I say....forced? Facetiousness aside, the post just didn't seem worthy of someone of his apparent calibre. His second one dropped a few more thoughts but as I've said, I gain my best insights when I can talk to people one-on one so I can't be sure one way or the other. Overall I'd be most suspicious of him, Holy, and kita atm. I can't attempt to make much of a read on sandroba/marv/austin yet, but I'd very much like to.
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On January 22 2014 10:21 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 10:19 WaveofShadow wrote:
And since people appear to be ignoring me, I'm just going to keep tossing shit out there until something sticks.
Kita I need to go back and look at the games I've played with you. I dislike regarding meta primarily as a rule, but I can't remember if you play all your games by incessant questioning and seemingly 'starting shit.' I know you're capable of well-formed cases as either alignment but I really wish I could see one right now. So much of your filter is just questions; I don't know what you're building towards at all, and it bothers me. I'm not ignoring you bbygrl, you need something specific?
Nah you know me, just like to shoot some shit and see what rains down.
Talk to me about kita a little. He can be pretty tricksy; what do you make of the fact that he doesn't appear to have dropped any solid reads so far, but rather is content to poke whatever and whoever he can?
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
On January 22 2014 10:17 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 10:06 Holyflare wrote:On January 22 2014 10:02 Hapahauli wrote:
Holy, can we start talking about your scumreads? I literally have no idea where you stand on me or anyone else. I would love to do this but it's 1am so i will elaborate on EVERYTHING when i wake up (even if it means knocking out my gf so i can use her pc) You can't take 5 minutes to give us one read?
I don't feel comfortable at all just posting names without elaborating the why's. It was originally you and gonzaw though but that has been dropping down and down based on replies. I honestly am very limited on time in general (all my posts are from my phone since the start) so when i have to defend myself the elaborating drops a lot. Promise to do it in the morning though.
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Meh, I try not to read Kita's posts too much because he's mean to me 
In all seriousness though, I haven't had a problem with the way he's questioning people. Like, the questions seem to have a guiding thought-process, which is something that I find townie. However it IS strange that he's not come out hard against anyone yet. I'm reserving my judgement on him until he does. That should shed some light as to what is/whether there is the thought-process he's following.
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On January 22 2014 10:28 VisceraEyes wrote:Meh, I try not to read Kita's posts too much because he's mean to me In all seriousness though, I haven't had a problem with the way he's questioning people. Like, the questions seem to have a guiding thought-process, which is something that I find townie. However it IS strange that he's not come out hard against anyone yet. I'm reserving my judgement on him until he does. That should shed some light as to what is/whether there is the thought-process he's following.
It's totes gonna be me
I CAN FEEL IT
Your current scumread is still Prome I believe?
Prome is also a player who often comes out with a massive case against someone and pushes it pretty hard. Why do you not reserve the same judgment for him?
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I just said that I get townie feels from the way Kita is questioning people - that earns him the hold. Prome has done something suspicious, and if he comes back and turns on the town then sure my mind could feasibly be changed, but I'm suspicious of him based on what he's already done in the thread. They're two different scenarios.
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On January 22 2014 11:36 VisceraEyes wrote:
I just said that I get townie feels from the way Kita is questioning people - that earns him the hold. Prome has done something suspicious, and if he comes back and turns on the town then sure my mind could feasibly be changed, but I'm suspicious of him based on what he's already done in the thread. They're two different scenarios.
Your main point against him is the weird take on our similar posts early, I get that.
You also specifically state
On January 22 2014 01:38 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 11:47 Promethelax wrote:On January 21 2014 11:41 Hapahauli wrote:
Or rather, it is policy, but certainly not discussion. You got so close to making that case on me. So close. And yet so far. It is policy and we could discuss it, I just assume no one will disagree with it so there is no discussion which will stem from it. The discussion comes from me posting things which you can call me town on or base a case on. That is what generates discussion, not policy we all agree on. Since you are, so far, the only person interrogating people on the shit they post I'm choosing to believe you are town for the moment. Since I am town that means you and I shall discuss other people. In this case VE and this post: On January 21 2014 11:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we're talking meta, pressure won't mean anything to sandroba. He'll either play or he won't, and if he's town he'll probably find some scum. People like kita voting for him as a joke will probably not pressure him as much as you seem to think. You see VE knows how to say things. But this post doesn't say things. This post, when the fluff is removed says that we should let Sandroba do his own thing because no matter what he'll do his own thing and that Sandroba may or may not catch scum. It shows such a lack of curiosity that I am disturbed. Do you, Hapa, agree? y/n? Will you go on a date with me y/n? This was a terrible reasoning for suspecting me in the first place, but to be fair it looks like a conversation starter more than an actual accusation, which can and does come from both alignments. However as a conversation starter, I do notice a distinct lack of calling me scummy or suspicious, only "disturbing". Could be benign icebreaking, or malicious doubt-weaving. Who can be so sure so early? I think it's suspicious because I think the rest of his play following this has been suspicious to me.
What about the rest of Prome's play aside from the comparison between us has been suspicious?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
My fellow players, I present to you the greatest advancement in scum hunting techniques since the Mafia Report Card and the Day Three Mayor Election. I am proud to introduce Mafia Combinatorics!
In an 11 player setup with three mafia members, there are 165 possible mafia team combinations. However, by attempting to only identify a pair of scum buddies, this number can be significantly reduced. By assuming that you are town*, there are three valid pairs in a group of 45 combinations. If you are able to identify two town players with a high degree of confidence, this number is reduced to three in a group of 28 pairings. Rather than attempting to look for a pair of scum buddies, I shall attempt to identify pairs who are not scum buddies. Even if a valid pair is eliminated due to poor reasoning, there are still two other correct combinations, which allows me to make multiple mistakes before I've eliminated all valid solutions. Through process of elimination, I shall use this list to generate a vote that is slightly better than random, but only with your help! I will attempt to include an updated spoilered list in every post with the cominbations that have not been eliminated based on interactions in the thread, lynch flips, night hits, and strong town reads. If you strongly disagree with a combination that has been eliminated or you believe that I should consider removing a pair for various reasons, let me know! Eliminating yourself because you are town is not a valid suggestion. That only works for me because I'm special. The mafia team is now facing a ticking time bomb. Will they manage to kill me before the game is solved? Will I realize this is a terrible idea that is incredibly time inefficient? Will I be ignored because you guys are unable to appreciate the greatness of my plans? Find out!
* Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that this may not be a valid assumption before applying Mafia Combinatorics to a game.
+ Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] +{Foolishness,Marvellosity}
{Foolishness,Promethelax}
{Foolishness,Austinmcc}
{Foolishness,Sandroba}
{Foolishness,VisceraEyes}
{Foolishness,HolyFlare}
{Foolishness,Hapahauli}
{Foolishness,Gonzaw}
{Marvellosity,Promethelax}
{Marvellosity,Austinmcc}
{Marvellosity,Sandroba}
{Marvellosity,VisceraEyes}
{Marvellosity,HolyFlare}
{Marvellosity,Hapahauli}
{Marvellosity,Gonzaw}
{Promethelax,Austinmcc}
{Promethelax,Sandroba}
{Promethelax,VisceraEyes}
{Promethelax,HolyFlare}
{Promethelax,Hapahauli}
{Promethelax,Gonzaw}
{Austinmcc,Sandroba}
{Austinmcc,VisceraEyes}
{Austinmcc,HolyFlare}
{Austinmcc,Hapahauli}
{Austinmcc,Gonzaw}
{Sandroba,VisceraEyes}
{Sandroba,HolyFlare}
{Sandroba,Hapahauli}
{Sandroba,Gonzaw}
{VisceraEyes,HolyFlare}
{VisceraEyes,Hapahauli}
{VisceraEyes,Gonzaw}
{HolyFlare,Hapahauli}
{HolyFlare,Gonzaw}
{Hapahauli,Gonzaw}
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OBJECTION!
I think you're missing WoS
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That's unfair, I never appear on the left side of those pairs!
I demand an explanation!
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I brought up some minor suspicions of Hapa early on in the game, but on second thought they probably didn't warrant much weight. When the game began, I was hesitant to trust the player that was going out of their way to look pro-town and generate "discussion" figuring that there might be a mafia player who is trying to teach their shadow how to maintain a strong thread presence. However, while Hapa is certainly capable of presenting strong town posts mid-game as mafia, I found that he appears to strongly prefer a backseat role on day one. He has mostly stayed active even after the start of the game, so I'm willing to put him in the back of my mind.
Foolishness is pretty reliable for the one big post after people share their annoyance that he hasn't solved the game yet. I'm satisfied enough to move my vote, as long as he doesn't expect the one post to buy enough town cred to ride out the rest of the day in cruise control. His reads match up pretty closely to what I'm thinking at the moment, although I suppose it's not too difficult to call townie looking players town and then pick a couple personal preferences from the remaining group.
There is one thing that I disagree with in Foolishness's assessment. He states that sandroba has had a strong appearance and has brought things to the thread. I don't see it so far. When he rejoined the thread, his re-enterence was extremely vanilla. He asked Foolishness about his WoS, which had already been beaten to death and he gave a softball to marv. His statement about Prom wasn't really anything new that he brought to the thread. I'm always hesitant to go after sandroba because I know a lot of the time he goes long periods of time without contributing much and then bursts into the thread with a great case. However, there is a distinct lack of aggressiveness in his posts and after 30 hours into the game, if he can't be bothered to play, that's on him, not me.
I may have overreacted to gonzaw's Foolishness case. I completely skimmed past his thoughts on VE and he moves onto sharing thoughts about Holy when he had the option to stay where he is. I haven't decided between town or mafia with a lot of spare time, but activity buys him enough town cred that I don't want to lynch him right now.
marv hasn't made a lynch push yet, which is a concern. On day one especially, I know I like to wait until late into the day to make my mind up, but at least I try to provide some direction to where I am leaning. With marv, I really don't know who he is suspicious of. He appears curious about myself, but only really brings stuff up casually without much resolve. He comments that gonzaw made some valid points, but he hasn't followed up on this by attacking any of the targets in question. Nothing really comes to mind when I think of how Marv plays mafia. I remember when he fooled me with active posting when he was new to the forum and I believe he played a backseat role in themed game, but I'll have to take a closer look at his filter. I can definitely see a mafia Marv from a gut read though.
There was a post from Prom where he commented on something I was thinking so I gave him town cred, but I can't even find it now so it couldn't have been very strong. I hope to look at Holy/Wave/Prom tomorrow. I'll be at work all day so the 6PM lynch doesn't leave much time to come up with a preferred lynch candidate, but I'll try to do my best.
I think austin may have buddied up to me when he defended me where I didn't really need defending. He amuses me though, so I'm not sure we should lynch him yet.
@Foolishness, was there anything in particular that made you eliminate sandroba from lynch consideration?
##Unvote
##Sandroba
+ Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] +{Foolishness,Marvellosity}
{Foolishness,Promethelax}
{Foolishness,Austinmcc}
{Foolishness,Sandroba}
{Foolishness,VisceraEyes}
{Foolishness,HolyFlare}
{Foolishness,Hapahauli}
{Foolishness,Gonzaw}
{Foolishness,WaveofShadow}
{Marvellosity,Promethelax}
{Marvellosity,Austinmcc}
{Marvellosity,Sandroba}
{Marvellosity,VisceraEyes}
{Marvellosity,HolyFlare}
{Marvellosity,Hapahauli}
{Marvellosity,Gonzaw}
{Marvellosity,WaveofShadow}
{Promethelax,Austinmcc}
{Promethelax,Sandroba}
{Promethelax,VisceraEyes}
{Promethelax,HolyFlare}
{Promethelax,Hapahauli}
{Promethelax,Gonzaw}
{Promethelax,WaveofShadow}
{Austinmcc,Sandroba}
{Austinmcc,VisceraEyes}
{Austinmcc,HolyFlare}
{Austinmcc,Hapahauli}
{Austinmcc,Gonzaw}
{Austinmcc,WaveofShadow}
{Sandroba,VisceraEyes}
{Sandroba,HolyFlare}
{Sandroba,Hapahauli}
{Sandroba,Gonzaw}
{Sandroba,WaveofShadow}
{VisceraEyes,HolyFlare}
{VisceraEyes,Hapahauli}
{VisceraEyes,Gonzaw}
{VisceraEyes,WaveofShadow}
{HolyFlare,Hapahauli}
{HolyFlare,Gonzaw}
{HolyFlare,WaveofShadow}
{Hapahauli,Gonzaw}
{Hapahauli,WaveofShadow}
{Gonzaw,WaveofShadow}
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On January 22 2014 11:56 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 11:36 VisceraEyes wrote:
I just said that I get townie feels from the way Kita is questioning people - that earns him the hold. Prome has done something suspicious, and if he comes back and turns on the town then sure my mind could feasibly be changed, but I'm suspicious of him based on what he's already done in the thread. They're two different scenarios. Your main point against him is the weird take on our similar posts early, I get that. You also specifically state Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 01:38 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 21 2014 11:47 Promethelax wrote:On January 21 2014 11:41 Hapahauli wrote:
Or rather, it is policy, but certainly not discussion. You got so close to making that case on me. So close. And yet so far. It is policy and we could discuss it, I just assume no one will disagree with it so there is no discussion which will stem from it. The discussion comes from me posting things which you can call me town on or base a case on. That is what generates discussion, not policy we all agree on. Since you are, so far, the only person interrogating people on the shit they post I'm choosing to believe you are town for the moment. Since I am town that means you and I shall discuss other people. In this case VE and this post: On January 21 2014 11:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we're talking meta, pressure won't mean anything to sandroba. He'll either play or he won't, and if he's town he'll probably find some scum. People like kita voting for him as a joke will probably not pressure him as much as you seem to think. You see VE knows how to say things. But this post doesn't say things. This post, when the fluff is removed says that we should let Sandroba do his own thing because no matter what he'll do his own thing and that Sandroba may or may not catch scum. It shows such a lack of curiosity that I am disturbed. Do you, Hapa, agree? y/n? Will you go on a date with me y/n? This was a terrible reasoning for suspecting me in the first place, but to be fair it looks like a conversation starter more than an actual accusation, which can and does come from both alignments. However as a conversation starter, I do notice a distinct lack of calling me scummy or suspicious, only "disturbing". Could be benign icebreaking, or malicious doubt-weaving. Who can be so sure so early? I think it's suspicious because I think the rest of his play following this has been suspicious to me. What about the rest of Prome's play aside from the comparison between us has been suspicious?
My main point is the rest of his play from his original point against me. There hasn't been anything else Wave, what do you want me to say?
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www2.math.ou.edu/~kujawa/E7plane.jpg)
