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On June 26 2013 00:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 00:35 Chromatically wrote:
Who are your other scumreads, Sponge? For me, Xzavier is definitely something big. Could be SK, could be scum, could be... big. He has veiled references that he will be useful Day 2. If his play doesn't shape up in Day 2, I'd be for a Xzavier lynch, but I'm willing to give him that chance.
But why aren't you on board for a Xzav lynch today if you think that he's scum or SK?
It's very easy for scum to promise future contributions. Xzav has already did this once, but no one said anything when he didn't deliver. Delaying contribution until pressure has subsided is useful for scum.
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On June 26 2013 00:47 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 00:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 26 2013 00:35 Chromatically wrote:
Who are your other scumreads, Sponge? For me, Xzavier is definitely something big. Could be SK, could be scum, could be... big. He has veiled references that he will be useful Day 2. If his play doesn't shape up in Day 2, I'd be for a Xzavier lynch, but I'm willing to give him that chance. But why aren't you on board for a Xzav lynch today if you think that he's scum or SK? It's very easy for scum to promise future contributions. Xzav has already did this once, but no one said anything when he didn't deliver. Delaying contribution until pressure has subsided is useful for scum.
We are not supposed to speculate out loud about certain things. Therefore, meta dictates that I must withhold part of my answer to this question at this time. Suffice to say that while Xzavier could flip scum, if this particular player were mislynched, I believe it would be an abnormally disastrous one. However, be assured that if I am around Day 2 and Xzavier's posting does not improve, I will be pushing for his lynching.
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His play is clearly scummy. It has scum motivation. If you agree that he's scummy, there's no reason why you wouldn't want to lynch him.
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On June 26 2013 00:56 Chromatically wrote:
His play is clearly scummy. It has scum motivation. If you agree that he's scummy, there's no reason why you wouldn't want to lynch him.
If it is so clearly scummy, then the town will unanimously vote for him. It is not that clear-cut for me. I feel like I have explained as much as I can on this matter. As things stand, I would much prefer Stim to be lynched today than Xzavier, because Xzavier has proven he has 'upside'. I do not see that in Stim.
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EBWOP: Check that. I would SLIGHTLY prefer Stim to be lynched today than Xzavier, not 'much'.
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I've skimmed through the thread to get a handle on where people are leaning.
Scenario 1: Xzavier is town
Mafia should be distancing themselves from the lynch and somewhat defending him.
Scenario 2: Xzavier is mafia
Mafia should be vehemently arguing in his defense while also trying to distance themselves from him. It's a balancing act that is hard to do.
Keep an eye out for people who fall into the latter category for now.
On another note, I agree with Hurricane that StiM is the best lynch for today. However, letting Aqua die is simply not an option. We only lynch StiM if we know we can get enough votes.
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Stim lynch with the info we have right now would be too much of a coin flip I think, however if he doesn't come back and elaborate as he promised I am ready to see him hang. And unless something truly game changing happens my vote will be on Xzavier or Stim - definitely not Aquanim.
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On June 26 2013 01:10 LoneMeow wrote:
Stim lynch with the info we have right now would be too much of a coin flip I think, however if he doesn't come back and elaborate as he promised I am ready to see him hang. And unless something truly game changing happens my vote will be on Xzavier or Stim - definitely not Aquanim.
This has been bugging me a little bit. Given the odds, isn't a coin-flip fantastic odds for the town on a Day 1 lynch barring extremely strong scum reads?
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EBWOP: Theoretically speaking, of course. If everyone was a Null read, you'd take a coin-flip every day of the week. But given that fyfy is being modkilled, and I think most of us weren't suspecting him of being particularly scummy, we could be playing a man down. Regardless, I'm not building my case on Stim around a coinflip. Please go back and read my case. There's actual analysis in there!
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On June 26 2013 01:12 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 01:10 LoneMeow wrote:
Stim lynch with the info we have right now would be too much of a coin flip I think, however if he doesn't come back and elaborate as he promised I am ready to see him hang. And unless something truly game changing happens my vote will be on Xzavier or Stim - definitely not Aquanim. This has been bugging me a little bit. Given the odds, isn't a coin-flip fantastic odds for the town on a Day 1 lynch barring extremely strong scum reads?
Consider the case of lynching a coin flip that says nothing about those who voted for him against mislynching someone after considerable amount of discussion. I'd say the latter is better, if only for the fact that it helps figure out who are scum later on.
Also note, it's not a true coin flip, since not half of the players are scum. If it was 50/50 odds I'd take it unless I had a very strong scum read on someone.
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On June 26 2013 01:26 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 01:12 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 26 2013 01:10 LoneMeow wrote:
Stim lynch with the info we have right now would be too much of a coin flip I think, however if he doesn't come back and elaborate as he promised I am ready to see him hang. And unless something truly game changing happens my vote will be on Xzavier or Stim - definitely not Aquanim. This has been bugging me a little bit. Given the odds, isn't a coin-flip fantastic odds for the town on a Day 1 lynch barring extremely strong scum reads? Consider the case of lynching a coin flip that says nothing about those who voted for him against mislynching someone after considerable amount of discussion. I'd say the latter is better, if only for the fact that it helps figure out who are scum later on. Also note, it's not a true coin flip, since not half of the players are scum. If it was 50/50 odds I'd take it unless I had a very strong scum read on someone.
Oh, my misunderstanding. Thought coin flip meant 50/50.
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I totally don't get where you all are coming from with the Stim > Xzavier thing, so I've made a few cases for you to show you what I mean.
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On June 26 2013 01:15 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Please go back and read my case. There's actual analysis in there!
I did read it, but I don't really agree with it right now. It's mostly based on meta, and there's so very little history to go by that I don't think it's a very strong case at all. I want to see his reaction (or the lack of it) to get a bit better read.
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The Case for Stim
He's a lurker. Lurking is scummy.
He lurked as town last game. But he still might be scum.
He was active in the pregame, but hasn't contributed.
+ Show Spoiler +Xzavier was also active in the pregame, but he hasn't contributed. He's also been acting like he contributes when he really hasn't.
So it's pretty much a coinflip, but you should just vote Stim anyway.
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The Xzavier Saga
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Episode I: The Xzavier Menace
Early game, Xzavier posts fluff that helps him blend in with the town, without doing any sort of scumhunting. The scum motivation for this is to blend in, look like he's contributing, and avoid attention without trying to find scum.
I'll just repost my previous case on him, focusing on this part of his play:
On June 25 2013 11:05 Chromatically wrote:Most of the Xzavier stuff is really obvious: look at early day 1 and his filter. He spams a lot, posts things that are meaningless, etc. His posts feel loose and casual, but that could easily be an act. Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 12:35 Xzavier wrote:
Fuck me, i just typed somethign really nice all out and accidentally switched windows. Take two:
First actual post of this game:
This is my first game involving tracker/watcher/ect.
Okay, from what iv learned so far is that town has some borderline useless roles (tracker watcher)
The opprotunities where they would be beneficial are so rare that its hardly useful, and with the exisance of a NN it could all be BS. So there really is barely any information to gain, and if you do get any of this slightly more than useless info, its unreliable.
But, the flipside. We have Parity cop who can effectively check two people every night. He shouldnt claim. Unless he is getting lynched (and we will still lynch you, mind this) You should say who you have found as scum, or confirmed town.
You can take your strongest town read and then strongest scum read, and compare them. if the are two different alignments, its pretty obvious who is who. IF you REALLY want to play like a traditional cop. then select one of the two names as yourself, this way you can see if they are the same alignment as you (town) or not (scum)
Seriously OP imo ^^
we also hav veteran/vigi who are strong roles as well. And as shown by last game, JK can be stupidly good as well.
I like this setup for town,
Framer does make things tricky, but the cop check is still reliable (odds of you two picking same target are rare, this is why you shouldnt claim if you think you have found 1 scum alone anyway, IF he was fraimed: our cop is dead and we lose a townie).
Framer is actually a rather strong role in and of itself.
I still like this setup. basically all the tracker/watcher/NN stuff looks borderline useless to me, as iv already stated. Obviously nobody should claim. But they arnt the strongest of roles.
Here he actually admits that his other posting has been useless, but then adds yet another useless post talking about how "strong" the town roles are by saying a lot of self-evident stuff. He's posting for the sake of posting. I especially like the part where he says that he'd lynch a claimed parity cop. Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 13:37 Xzavier wrote:
If i was parity cop i would claim NN lol. be the best fucking play. But seriously dont do this.
Im just reading from phone now. will post a case or two in the morning.
Whens the deadline? The other noteworthy post where he literally says nothing. The first sentence is meaningless. He promises more activity later, which I never really like to see, particularly when that activity doesn't occur. Maybe it didn't happen because there was no pressure on him? He ends with a question that doesn't matter because he knows that the deadline is about 2 days away. The exact time doesn't matter at all. I can see a scum Xzav posting this in order to "interact" a little without doing anything. Everything else in his filter is spam. Look at it yourselves. ##Vote: XzavierKeep in mind, as you read Xzav, that this is not a total noob player. I don't want to rely on meta heavily (at all, really), but at least observe the fact that he does know what he's doing as town. He played a strong town game in XLII, but he is anything but that this game. At the very least, he is certainly experienced enough to know not to lynch a claimed blue. The "noob town" defense doesn't hold water with Xzav because he's clearly capable of being a strong townie.
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Episode II: Attack of the Townies
Xzavier disappears all day long when the pressure is off of him. This shows scum motivation because he doesn't contribute to town as long as no one is paying attention to him. Xzavier shows up again only when the pressure is on him, because he only cares about defending himself.
Not much to say here. It's theoretically possible that he was busy the entire time, and just happened to pop in and start posting right after the pressure was on, but I think that's unlikely.
A more likely scenario was that he was active lurking, and only started posting when he needed to deflet suspicion off of him.
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Episode III: Revenge of the Xzavier
Xzavier's return is extremely agressive at first, but his agression is being faked. He posts EVEN MORE FLUFF, and no scumhunting. His vote goes on Aquanim, who was at the time the most suspicious player to the town. He has minimal reasoning for voting Aqua, showing that he is still not interested in scumhunting and just wants to deflect suspicion.
On June 25 2013 11:09 Xzavier wrote:
okay, i just want to say that half of you are fucking retarded,
now, im watching day9. after him, im going to show you all how fucking retarded you are.
Wow, if we're all so retarded, you must have some really good reasons why you're town, right?
Nope.
So why would a town Xzav honestly think that the suspicion on him is stupid if he doesn't have a good defense? Scum often act like this to make themselves seem genuine and that the suspicion on them is misplaced (see: Kickstart in XXXI).
Here's his amazing return post:
everything everybody has said about NN has meant nill to me right now, except for the people asking for him to claim. Because him being alive benefits scum more than town, because even if we know who he is, scum can still claim that it was NN and we wouldnt know different, unless you wanted to tail this guy the entire game, essentially wasting a blue role.
im lynching somebody if they claim NN. im sorry, i just am. because it doesnt benefit anything, even if your are NN, thats unfortunate, your dead. its like miller, you can claim it all you want, but on my list scum would claim miller too, so it isnt a defense, its just unfortunate circumstances.
More policy/claim garbage? This is the least helpful thing that he could possibly be saying.
Okay, last game during day1 i went holy fucking shit hard, made a few big blunders, almost got a town lynched over a scum, and that seriously hurt my confidence going into the rest of the game. I dont want to be the center of attention trying to direct town discussion if i cant handle it (as shown last game) It would be much better for me to analyze people, call them bad, and find scum. then to try to be mr. sheriff and totally fuck up the game.
Also, posting the list that is located on page 1 is scummy as shit to me, that is useless contribution, because its so much easier to open up page 1 in a new tab to find filters, it literally doesnt benefit anything at all.
IF i WAS scum this game, i would try to do exactly what i did last game, because if i made town-bandwagons it would look like last game where i was town, and everybody would just call me a bad townie.
First, he tries to excuse his lack of contribution.
Then, he repeats an easy suspicion that has already been stated several times.
And then he uses the "If I were scum..." argument. This argument is WIFOM, as I've already said, but it also is very easy for scum to use (I should know, I've used it myself as scum).
Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 07:05 LoneMeow wrote:
Xzavier, I still don't like your filter. Practically just setup speculation, no scum hunting or reads. I want to lynch you.
I'm not all that comfortable with lynching hzflank, in fact I'd rather not. I read him as town-ish.
StiMaDDict, start participating in some way. Who's your top scum read, why?
fyfy, you say you'd "rather lynch someone scummier", tell me who'd that be?
##Vote: Xzavier The bold is kinda bullshit? it would be one thing if you said "i kinda just want to lynch you because your lurking hardcore and didnt do that last game!" then i woulda been okay with it, but because you didnt it makes me wonder. What scumhunting was their to do when everybody has 1-2 posts that they most probably arnt going to give away anything. seriously, how bad would somebody have to be to fuck up their first post? misread there role pm? I really dont think thats enough to vote somebody, Asking for fyfy who they would rather lynch instead of encouraging the person your voting for also seems strange. its like saying this is a pressure vote, then taking off the pressure. Its like your trying to pressure somebody but you dont want to commit yourself, like your afraid of making too many people upset. That or your trying to pressure like three people at once, which is impossible with only 1 vote. T.T to me you seem like your trying to press as many buttons as possible and hoping to hit something, in essence thats the plan, but you cant do it all at the same time.
A completely noncomittal "scumread". He says things like "kinda bullshit", "it makes me wonder", "It's like your trying to", etc. He's lightly throwing suspicion, but he never actually calls meow scum. Note how he leaves the out at the end, incase he ever needs to artifically switch his read to town.
This is a classic wishy-washy scum post. It leaves it open for him to vote Meow later, if that helps him, or to call him town, without arousing suspicion.
Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 12:36 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 12:25 Chromatically wrote:
Nothing else to say, Aqua?
I'm not used to prompting you for reads and opinions. Don't you have any thoughts on the events of today? hz/Spicy/Tofu? I'm not interested in lynching any of those three today, if that's what you're asking. I can see the thought process of all three and I can easily see all of it coming from a town mindset, even if I don't agree with a lot of it. My current suspicions lie with Onegu and Xzavier, since they have posted a fair bit but actually said little to nothing of value. This post just moved Aqua to my number 1 scum list.
##VOTE Aquanimuhhh. dude, this is your first post in 12 hours, and all you did was a gree with everybody, and say whats already been said. your filter isnt that impressive and you havnt reacted or responded to pressure. you talked alot when it was about the NN meta, which all iv gleaned from is lynch anybody who claims NN at any point in the game. Because it means that they are scum, if they WERE Noisy neighbor, then they would be okay getting lynched, post all of their biggest cases before they died, become confirmed (and dead) town. We re-read his case. If its strong we lynch who he suspects and win. That would be the best way to play noisy neighbor. Claiming NN to stay alive is pretty pointless, you can say it, but it wont keep you alive. So you pretty much were encouraging a useless may as well be spam topic. you havnt actually done anything pro-town, and are using the heat on me and Onegu as a cover in order to not make a splash and still get a mislynch.
And this is where he votes for Aqua. Coincidentally, Aqua happened to be under the most pressure at that time, even though no one had actually given reasons. Xzav doesn't have reasons either (legit reasons, at least). This post is a pure sheep onto town sentiment.
I also think it's interesting that the first sentance applies totally to Xzav. If Xzav thinks those things are scummy, he should realize how scummy he looks.
But he doesn't think that he looks scummy, because We're all "fucking retards" for voting him.
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Episode IV: A New Lynch
Xzav is clearly the scummiest person in this game. He tried to blend in early game, and didn't try to find scum at all. He dropped out when the pressure was off of him, and only showed up again when there was a case on him. And his defense is only more fluff and trying to redirect suspicion without having any real scumreads by bandwagoning on town sentiment.
Lynch him.
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Hey guys sorry to be that guy, but I made a preliminary vote count list and I figured I might as well show you until the mods show up.
Chromatically (0): Aquanim, hzflank
fyfy (0): FirmTofu
hzflank (0): Chromatically
FirmTofu (0): Alakaslam
Spicydinosaur (0): FirmTofu
Xzavier (4): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu
Aquanim (4): Onegu, yfy, hzflank, Xzavier, Alakaslam, StiMaDDict
Alakaslam (1): Onegu
Hurricane Sponge (1): SpicyDinosaur
StiMaDDict (1): Hurricane Sponge
Not Voting:
NO ONE
Please correct if I made a mistake.
Xzavier is set to be lynched because of the tiebreaker. Assuming Onegu goes to the Aquanim lynch again, we will need Hurricane's vote to guarantee that Xzavier dies today instead of Aquanim. Everything is riding on one vote.
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I can justify moving my vote for two reasons:
#1.) I've been vocally suspect of Xzavier all game.
#2.) My primary target is on the bandwagon that is functioning as Xzavier's salvation
(Stim cast his vote REALLY late. If I need to spell it out, the logic follows that if I think Stim is scum, and he's voting essentially in favor of Xzavier, the friend of my enemy is my enemy)
Let's make the mafia do the Scum Shuffle and see what happens in the next 9 hours, shall we?
##unvote
##vote Xzavier
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Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.
As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu
They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.
Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.
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On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.
As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu
They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.
Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.
I guess we're going to find out about Spicy. If he switches his vote to save Xzavier, it supports your theory. Onegu has a built-in 'Out' to switch his vote back to Aqua, as dumb as the original reasons for this wagon were for starting.
Alakaslam just threw out his vote to potentially save himself. I think once he reads the thread, he'll come to his senses quickly.
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EPT
